Please Click LIKE to like my blog. Thanks for support

Follow by Email

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

JCY Fair Value RM2.16

JCY International Berhad (RM1.50)
Using PEGGY method
.
PE: 2010 P/E 10.2
G: Growth: 2011-2012, 20% per year
G: Gearing, no gearing, net cash
Y: Yield (dividend). 4.8%pa dividend yield

.
POLITE MARKET'S COMMENTS:
High growth at 20%pa with PE only 10.2. Good. ROE above 30%
No gearing, good.
Dividend yield is average, at 4.8%. Dividend payout ratio at 50%,
although no policy, but this is the management's plan.
RISK: Dependence on major customers
I saw from the web RHB fair value is RM1.40 (42% upside).
I am considering JCY. Any fair value target price recommendation from
other broker?

EA HOLDINGS BERHAD (0154) IPO Fair Value

EA HOLDINGS BERHAD (0154) IPO Fair Value Target Price
ACE Market

Polite Market's Comments:
Before offering IPO to the public, shares are with script / scrip.
Existing shareholder have to deposit with the Bursa Central Depository
(commonly known as CDS) within the Prescribed Period.
So for EA HOLDINGS BERHAD (0154), the Prescribed Period is from
29.06.2010 to 29.07.2010
For TATT GIAP GROUP BERHAD (5178) Main Market is from 29.06.2010 to
29.07.2010

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Supermax RM9.50

Supermax RM5.93
PEGGY method
PE P/E ratio Dec2010 9.5 times
G Growth 2011-2012 8%
G Gearing 20%. Net cash 2012
Y Yield (dividend) 2.0%

POLITE MARKET'S COMMENTS:
There will be a sharp increase of more than 60% in net profit from 2009
to 2010. So, the PE will be 9.5 times. Growth of 8% is slightly lower
than PE, not at bargain price. Gearing normal. Dividend yield 2%, low.

Read from the web that CIMB target price is RM9.50 (60% upside). They
expect Supermax will continue to grow due to continued growth of global
glove demand and the company capacity expansion.

Many brokers and analysts disputed and have different figure for future
glove demand.

If you trust CIMB, then can buy Supermax. But I don't like the dividend,
very low.

Monday, June 28, 2010

BUY FREIGHT RM0.80 FairValue RM1.40

Freight Management (RM0.80)
Using PEGGY method
PE: 2010 6.2
G: Growth: 2011-2012, 10.4% per year
G: Gearing, no gearing, net cash
Y: Yield (dividend). 6.4% dividend yield

POLITE MARKET'S COMMENTS:
Growing at 10.4% with PE only 6.2. Good.
Dividend yield is good, at 6.4%. Dividend payout ratio at 40%, although
no policy, but management has hinted this is the trend.

I introduce Freight Management NOT because I am good.
I buy stock is based on recommendation by analysts, they are the expert,
NOT me. I use PEGGY to filter, then buying using Dollar Cost Averaging.
Many are having BUY recommendation or good recommendation on Freight
Management, I saw already got 5. Probably got more. RHB fair value is
RM1.40 (75% upside).

Hope you can make money from this.

Signature Kitchen Bonus 1:2

25 June 2010, the EGM has approved the bonus issue.


Polite Market's Comments:
Actually bonus or no bonus, the value of the company is the same. Investors will not gain from bonus.

But people like to buy if got bonus, because bonus will adjust the price lower and make it more affordable and make it looks cheap. Also those who did not follow closely on the stock, they thought the price drop so much, so they thought is cheap and buy.

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Haio Result April 2010

One word: Bad


POLITE MARKET'S COMMENT:
Thank God I have sold all.

But stock market can be different. Profit down but sometimes share price can go up. Is all about supply and demand. Or maybe people already sold down and may want to buy back when is low.

Kimlun IPO Fair Value

Kimlun Corp Bhd IPO (RM0.97)
Doing constrcution and also manufacture pre-cast concrete products such as tunnel lining segments
total shares 229 million


Let us use PEGGY method:

PE     P/E ratio 6.5 times- Dec2010
G       Growth 4.8%pa 2011-2012
G       Gearing nil. Net cash RM0.30 per share
Y       Yield (dividend) 4%pa


POLITE MARKET'S COMMENTS
Growth is low and also lower than PE ratio. Bad
ROE 20%, good.
Net cash RM70mil, RM0.30 per share. Very superb high. Can anyone verify this? I saw from RHB.
Dividend 4%pa, ok

I will not buy at RM0.97. But the net cash is very high. What they do with it? It they can use the cash to bring in higher growth than ok. Means they also got no problem paying dividend, or even higher.

If the net cash is real, then this stock will not die and may surprise us with higher growth or dividend. If the net cash is not real, then the growth is low and I will not buy.

Saturday, June 26, 2010

Maxis RM6.20

I saw from the web a broker recommended Maxis with a target price fair
value at RM6.20
PEGGY Test:
PE PE ratio 16 times
G Growth rate 7.2%pa till 2012
G Gearing 40%
Y Yield (dividend) 6.6%

PE much higher than Growth- Bad
Gearing- OK, because borrow $ to pay dividend. Mature market
Dividend ok- got 6.6%

POLITE MARKET'S COMMENTS:
I will not buy Maxis. What you get is only the dividend yield and
moderate growth. I hold because strike IPO.

Friday, June 25, 2010

Mamee Mr Potato K.O. Pringles

Mister Potato has overtaken Pringles for chips segment in Malaysia (45%
market share)
Mister Potato Knock Out/ replaced Pringles in the shelves of Woolsorth,
Australia's biggest supermarket. Also expected to be placed on the
shelves of Coles (Australia supermarket giant)
Mamee Monster snack noodles is the ONLY snack noodle product in
Australia which is approved by the health authorities to be sold in
Australian Schools
Polite Market's Comments:
I have done a survey. I ask a Malay lady, which is the best potato
chips, and she said the Mexico chips (referring to Mister Potato).
I quite like Wise Potato Chips, but very hard to find.
Taste (product) is important, but marketing (distribution, pricing and
promotion) also equally important.

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Portfolio 24/06/2010

Adventa (still can buy)
AMFIRST (for dividend only)
BONIA (still can buy)
Freight (MUST BUY)
HARTA (still can buy)
Homeriz (no research on this)
Kseng (have to force them to sell land)
MAMEE (still can buy)
Maxis (Do NOT buy)
NTPM (still can buy)
Notion (still can buy)
QL (for steady long term)
Sign (Do NOT buy)
Stareit (for dividend only)
Tomypak (still can buy)
TWRreit (for dividend only)
Wellcall (still can buy)

POLITE MARKET'S COMMENTS:
Largest holding- FREIGHT MANAGEMENT
Maxis- Fail in PEGGY test. Hold because my spouse ask me to hold
Sign- Fail in PEGGY test. Hold because S&P still recommend strong BUY
with fair value Target Price RM2.00 Insider Asia also recommended BUY

Historical Data:
Largest % gain within a year- Evergreen 180%
Largest % loss within a year- Kwantas negative 55%

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Adventa Earnings Exceed Expectation

Adventa (RM3.21)

I saw from the web that RHB said Adventa result below expectation.
According to Adventa's announcement, it was due to increase in latex cost and stronger Ringgit against the US Dollar. The management said, excluding latex cost increase and drop in US Dollar value, the earnings are stronger than expected.


POLITE MARKET"S COMMENTS:
Now that Adventa passing the cost increase to customer, and the stabilising of US Dollar, things are better now. With the management saying that earnings are stronger than expected and RHB still have fair value of RM4.92 (53% upside from current price), so I think I still can hold on.

Dear RHB, hope you are right, and can hit RM4.92

Monday, June 21, 2010

What are you Thinking?

In bull market, you are thinking of:
Next year profit forecast
Plant expansion
GDP growth
Dividend yield
India is big market coming
Buy now and sell after making 10%

In bear market, you are thinking of:
Government debt too high
Government still printing money non-stop
Worldwide will collapse
China bubble will burst
Company can not achieve the forecast

Polite Market's Comments:
We should read more good news during bear market
We should read more bad news during bull market
So that our thinking is not bias.

Sunday, June 20, 2010

Kam Lun Tai Moon Cake

KLT mooncake

Establish in Jalan Sultan since 1972
The words "Kam Lun Tai" has been used by Malaysia’s first Finance Minister Tun H.S.Lee, when he was doing business in China. It has become a golden brand known universally.

KLT mooncake
HALAL' suitable for (Muslim Consumption Certificate) Year 2000

JAS-ANZ ISO 9001: 2000 International Quality System Certificate Year 2001
HACCP Food Safety System Certificate Year 2001
Moon cake Super Brand Award Year 2003


POLITE MARKET'S COMMENTS:
I think KLT mooncake is one of the best. Very nice taste and made from REAL ingredients and NOT artificial taste.

Some companies' profit are seasonal. Example mooncake maker. Most of their profits are during lantern festival. Example.....
Q1 RM1m
Q2 RM1m
Q3 RM9m
Q4 RM1m

So, you cannot take one quarter profit and multiply by 4 to get annualised profit. You also can not easily compare the current quarter profit with previous quarter, need to compare with previous year same quarter.



Types of mooncakes

Moonlight Shadow Emerald Light
Dragon Fruit in Blackcurrant
Green Scenery
Fortune Forever
Sweet Corn 1 Yolk
Black Sesame Lotus 1 Yolk
Golden Jade Light 1 Yolk
Pearly Jade
Golden Jade 1 Yolk
Traditional Flavours Mooncake
Lotus Moon Cake Lotus 1 Yolk
Hong Kong White Lotus 1 Yolk
Red Bean Moon Cake
Golden Jade Moon Cake
Crystalline Mooncake
Crystalline Chocolate Moon Cake
Crystalline Pandan
Golden Jade 1 Yolk with Spirulina
Crystalline Pandan
Pearly Jade 1 Yolk with Spirulina
Crystalline Red Pitaya 1 Yolk
Crystalline Pandan Lotus 1 Yolk
 
Keywords: Malaysia, supplier, tender, box, cheap, export, import, well known, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, new, local, moncake, lantang, lantern, lan tern, 15 of August. 15th of August. mooncake story. supply. price. Advertisement. Promotion. When. Good.

Friday, June 18, 2010

Chevrolet Cars

The New Capiva SUV 2010, from RM144,888
Standard Package
Warranty of 3 years or 100,000 KM whichever is earlier
Free service (only labour) for 2 years or 40,000 KM whichever is earlier
New Promotion Package
Warranty of FIVE years or 175,000 KM whichever is earlier
Free service (only labour and PARTS) for 2 years or 40,000 KM whichever
is earlier
Come and see the new Chevrolet Cruze 1.8LT
Top Speed 190km/hr
Acceleration 0-100km/h 11.5sec

Optra Magnum Estate (hatchback)
1.6L less than RM100,000
Aveo (Sedan)
1.4L about RM80,000
Polite Market's Comments:
I think the new promotion is until end of June. One more thing, terms
and conditions apply.

Adventa RM4.92

Advenda just announced result and below expectation.

Polite Market's Comments:
I heard RHB fair value cut from RM5.19 to RM4.92. So, still got upside potential, and I decided to  hold on to my Advenda.

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Shin Yang IPO Fair Value

Shin Yang Shipping Corp Bhd IPO fair value target price
Retail RM1.10
Institution RM1.05

Using my PEGGY method (base on RM1.05)

PE  10.4 (ok only)
G    Growth 7%  (a bit low). ROE less than 10%
G    Gearing 20% (normal)
Y    Yield-dividend. Less than 2%


Polite Market's Comment
The PE is higher than the growth rate, NOT GOOD
Dividend is low, NOT GOOD

Base on fundamental, I will not buy even at RM0.90
But IPO is different, it may shoot up to RM2.00 or drop to RM0.50. I always got it wrong.
I heard some broker fair value is near the IPO price.

Types of Investor- Series 9- Rumours Investor

Rumours Investor

I use real life example, my friend called Proton Car (fictitious name).
He likes to buy shares base on rumours. Most of the times, the suffer
losses
How PROTON CAR or you can be improved?
POINT 1
Not all rumours are false. Half of it can be true.

POINT 2
You need to check whether the price run up a lot. If yes, then if the
rumours are false, it will fall harden. But if the fundamental is
strong, it still can support the price up

POINT 3
In bull market, even it is not true, price may also keep going up. Most
counters need this kind of news to create volume for the price to go up.

POINT 4
You may to assess the chances of the rumours, whether it is likely to
happen. Rumours about buying a company.... Eg company with high debt
less likely to happen, but company with huge cash more likely to happen.

POINT 5
Fundamental. As long as the company is good, even the rumour is FALSE,
you are still holding a very good counter. I always jump into a counter
if the rumours are for the good fundamental counters. I will be buying
the good counters at right price even without rumours, so now with
rumours, sure I jump in.

POINT 7
Cut loss. You bought because of rumours. If things not right, you still
want to hold?

POINT 8
Track records of the person that tell you the rumors. If he always
wrong, you still want to believe in him?
Conclusion:
My friend PROTON CAR, most of the times making losses by listening to
rumours. But he can be improved if he adjusts his trading or investment
according to all or some of the above.

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

World Cup PE Stock Market

Football Soccer World Cup South Africa 2010
Why Public Bank & Maybank trading at PE ratio 16
But KStar trading at PE 4 ?
Good track record vs no track record

Polite Market's Comments:
Argentina, Brazil & Spain are trading at PE 16
England is trading at PE 16
North Korea is trading at PE 4
I think England should trade at PE 7.
Conclusion: SELL England
overrated, underperform, overvalue, overestimation

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

IPO Kimlun

Kimlun Corporation Bhd IPO RM0.97
Same IPO price with Sunway Real Estate Investment Trust
(Kim Lun) fair value target price
Public Issue 64,000,000
Offer for Sale 11,300,000
Private Plcement 61,970,000
MIDF 632
Main Market
Closing 21/06/2010
Tentative Date of Listing 29/06/2010

Polite Market's Comments:
Together with Sunreit, so far total 13 new IPO in 2010.
Total 14 in 2009.

Mamee RM4.50

Mamee (RM2.95)
Managed to gather five research papers from the web.
Inter-Pacific Research Sdn Bhd (Outperform) RM3.63
Jupiter Securities Research (Not rated) RM3.20
Kim Eng Research (Trading Buy) RM3.50
MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Berhad (not rated) RM3.30
MIMB Investment Bank (Trading buy) RM3.66
Dividend yield more than 5%

Polite Market's Comments:
Let us take the lowest Jupiter method, 10x of 2010 earnings per share
RM0.32
= RM3.20
Only MIMB has forecast up to year 2012, forecast earnings is RM0.45.
So, in 2012, use 10x of RM0.45 will be RM4.50
53% upside potential in two to three years. Average per year is 21%.
Add 5% dividend will be 26%.
Question:
Why use ONLY 10x for consumer defensive with good dividend stocks?
Should be higher.
Can they achieve RM0.45 earnings in 2012? Or can achieve higher?
Not sure, I hope so, ask MIMB.
Conclusion: BUY

Monday, June 14, 2010

Adventa Fair Value RM4.34 to RM5.19

Read from the web that RHB has just increased Adventa Fair Value Target
price from RM4.34 to RM5.19
Price now is RM3.14

Polite Market's Comments:
The reason for increase is roll forward of valuation year.
Scenario is end of May the fair value still RM4.34
Early June, change to RM5.19
I base on the report, today next year, the fair value will be RM.522 X
13= RM6.79
RM6.79 is 116% of current price RM3.14
Can go so high?

Friday, June 11, 2010

IPO CapitaMalls

IPO Capital Mall
Read in the news...
Shopping malls operator CapitaMalls Asia could raise as much as RM995
million (US$302 million) through the listing of its Malaysian assets in
Kuala Lumpur in the form of a real estate investment trust.
The Employees Provident Fund Board of Malaysia and Great Eastern Life
Assurance (Malaysia), have agreed to buy 90 million units of the listed
REIT at RM1.10 a unit or the institutional price, whichever is lower.
CapitaMalls Asia chief executive Lim Beng Chee

Polite Market's Comments:
Is Capital Mall related to Capital Land? Capital Land is one of the
largest property players in Singapore.

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Stock Market on Demand vs Astro (AOD)

Astro on Demand vs Stock Market on Demand
Why people don't want to subscribe? One reason is because they know (not 100%, but 90%) sooner or later Astro will show it FREE on Wah Lai Toi (311). They have PATIENCE to wait.

Those who subscribe have to PAY EXTRA, and no patience to wait.

Polite Market's Comments:
Those who buy for long term have PATIENCE. Those who don't buy during bear market have no patience, tend to PAY EXTRA (buy during bull market and normally hit by losses).

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Why afraid stock market hantu but not ghost?

Hantu (Price Drop) = Ghost (Price Drop)
Why you afraid hantu but not ghost?
Bear market you afraid to buy because afraid PRICE DROP (HANTU)
Bull market you NOT afraid to buy because NOT afraid PRICE DROP (GHOST)
Why you afraid price down during bear market, but NOT afraid price down
during bull market?
Your answer is in bull market the chances (probabilities) of price up
are higher. You are right!!!
Polite Market's Comments:
But rather than just base on probabilities/chances, must also base on
Risk vs Reward
In bull market, the price example RM2.00. And if up, maybe can reach
RM3.00 (50% upside). If down maybe can reach RM0.50 (75% downside). 50%
vs 75%
In bear market, maybe the price is RM1.00, can go up to RM2.00 (100%
upside), but may also go down to RM0.50 (50% downside). 100% vs 50%
So, not just use probablities, also use Risk vs Reward

IPO Thai Indonesia AirAsia Financial Strain?

Read in the news. . . .
Air Asia group plans to seek separate listings for AirAsia X, Thai
AirAsia and Indonesia AirAsia so that investors can clearly choose to
invest on geographic and business models.
Analysts are not surprised by low-cost carrier AirAsia Bhd's (5099)
plans to list three affiliated airlines separately as the group seeks to
ease its financial strain.
Polite Market's Comments:
Can hold these AirAsia stocks? Maybe can make money if apply then sell
when list, but to hold? They already told you FINANCIAL STRAIN ! ! !

Want to buy Mamee?

Mamee began in 1971 as a manufacturer of dry noodles and instant
vermicelli and a year later, developed the Mamee Monster snack and Mamee
instant noodles.
Other household brands:
Double Decker snacks (launched in 1980)
Mister Potato chips (1992)
Crisps (2000)
Nutrigen cultured milk (1996)
Corntoz snacks (2009).
Nicolet Swiss Herbs candy
Use three-pronged strategy:
Producing high-quality products
Making them widely accessible to target markets
Supporting them with the necessary marketing support.
Export to more than 80 countries.

Polite Market's Comments:
Mamme management is very strong, able to have so many well known brand
names.
For long term hold, the management needs to be strong.

Want to guess Haio dividend?

Haio (RM4.00)
Dividend (adjusted for bonus & split)
2009
RM0.042
RM0.133 (final)
Total RM0.175
2010
RM0.042
RM0.04
RMXXXXX(final) guess???

Polite Market's Comments:
Last year 26/06/2010 announced FINAL RM0.133 dividend. So, now is June,
how?
Got RM0.20 final dividend?

APPLE Inc's iPhone 4

Read in the news . . . . .
APPLE Inc's iPhone 4, the company's fourth iPhone model, will arrive at
Malaysian shores in the second half of this year.
The iPhone 4, dubbed the world's thinnest smart phone, will be sold by
both Maxis Bhd and DiGi.Com Bhd, the only two mobile operators that have
rights to sell iPhones.
The iPhone 4, which comes in the 16GB and 32GB model, is expected to be
priced at US$199 and US$299 (RM661 and RM993) respectively in the US
under a 24-month contract. The iPhone 3GS, when first launched last
year, was sold for US$199 (16GB) and US$299 (32GB) respectively.
One of the main highlights of iPhone 4's new feature is its video call
capability, something which the current models can't perform.
Polite Market's Comment:
Will the above price increase?
iPhone maker Foxconn International Holdings on Tuesday, June 8 said it
will seek higher prices from its clients to help offset wage hikes at a
plant in southern China that has been hit by a series of suicides.
Foxconn, owned by Taiwan's Hon Hai Precision Industry.
Hon Hai, the world's biggest contract electronics maker with a client
list that includes Apple Inc, Dell Inc and Hewlett-Packard Co, has been
wrestling with the fallout from 10 suicides in the last five months at
Foxconn.
Hon Hai Chairman Terry Gou, Taiwan's richest man.
Thin margins at Foxconn and Hon Hai would likely suffer.

Can Buy these 16 counters?

Read in the news. . . . . .
CIMB Research still overweight on small-cap stocks (small-cap universe)
They list down 16 counters OUTPERFORM. I am holding 4 of the counters
Top pick is Welcall, dividend yield 12% gross/ 9% net. Net cash RM0.32.
They said China-based Xingquan International Sports Holdings Ltd was the cheapest stock in its list, as it was trading at only 2.3 times CY11 P/E and offered a gross dividend yield of above 5%.
Polite Market's Comments:
Adventa RM3.11 (I'm having) Target Price RM5.44
Notion RM2.65 (I'm having) RM4.05
Tomypak RM2.73 (I'm having) RM4.96
Wellcall RM1.23(I'm having) RM1.76
CI Holdings RM2.31 (waiting for cheaper price) RM3.28
Daibochi RM2.80 (waiting for cheaper price) RM4.60
Asia File RM4.50 (need More Information) RM5.80
Cocoaland RM1.36 (need More Information) RM1.78
Eksons RM0.86 (need More Information) RM1.42
HunzaProp RM1.25 (need More Information) RM1.93
Jobstreet RM2.02 (need More Information) RM2.54
Pelikan RM1.05 (need More Information) RM1.65
UMLand RM1.43 (need More Information) RM2.11
Uchi Tech RM1.25 (need More Information) RM1.63
Latexx RM3.52 (I already have same industry- Adventa & Hartalega) RM5.44
Xingquan RM1.19 (China stock, so I'm afraid. Can buy?)RM3.12

Now I have more confidence in my above 4 stocks because CIMB have the same opinion with me that they will grow. Question is timing.

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

XXX to be listed- AirAsia X IPO

Read in the news...
Malaysian long-haul budget airline AirAsia X today planning an initial
public offering (IPO) in middle of 2011 to fund the acquisition of 17
new A330s and 10 new A340s Airbus aircraft as it expands its routes.
Each cost about RM400 million. Currently has eight aircraft and will
have 11 by December 2010.
AirAsia X now flies to London, Taipei, China (Tianjin, Hangzhou,
Chengdu), Australia (Gold Coast, Melbourne, Perth) and India (Mumbai,
Delhi)
Chief executive officer is Azran Osman-Rani.
Chairman is Kamarudin Meranum
Launched in November 2007, AirAsia X is an affiliate of AirAsia and
Virgin Group. AirAsia and AirAsia X have common shareholders, including
AirAsia founder and CEO Datuk Tony Fernandes.
AirAsia X 2009 revenues = RM720 millio
2010 projected > RM1.0 billion.
AirAsia X has carried two million guests to date.

Polite Market's Comments:
After 6 years, do you think AirAsia price now is above IPO price? Have
you received any dividend from AirAsia?
I can't hear you!!! Is it No & NO? Sorry, I still can't hear you!!!! Is
it "NO" to the above questions?
You can still apply for AirAsia X IPO and sell during listing if you
think can make money. But do you still have confidence to hold AirAsia
X?

Majority Share Margin users

I have many friends using share margin financing, and bank earn interest
from them.
When the market up, automatically they will have more limit to buy
When the market down, they will have less limit, or even hit by margin
call.

Polite Market's Comments:
Most of my friends when the market up, they got more limit, they buy
more.
So they are holding more shares, and when market down, they make more
losses. Down further, they are being hit margin call, so they have to
top up cash.
Do they have money to top up? Most don't have money because if they have
money, they don't need share margin financing. So the banks force sell
their shares.
Conclusion is majority share margin users buy when market up, and sell
when market down (buy high sell low).
An advice to all share margin financing users: Make sure you can top up
ALL margin call AND preferably buy when market down, not when market up.

PE can make money

PE is Price divided by earnings
Example
PBbank price is RM12.00
Earnings per share is RM0.73
So, the PE is 16.4 times
Blue chips normally trade at 16 times
Other light blue company is 14 times
Medium company is about 10-12 times

If PBBank earnings double to RM1.46
RM1.46 X 16.4 will be RM24.00
So the price will double from RM12.00 to RM24.00

Polite Market's Comments:
If you buy a small company..............
Example
Freight price RM0.78. Earnings RM0.11
So, the PE is 7.1 times

Years later Freight profit grow double and become medium size company
Earnings is RM0.22
So, now the PE can be valued at 10 times
RM0.22 X 10 = RM2.20 (up 182%)
Profit just grown 100%, but the share price can grow 182%
"If" PE is 16, then the price will be RM3.52 (up 351%)

Conclusion,
Normally the maximum of PE is less than 20, normally 16.
To make money from investing in big blue chips is just by "increase of
profit".
But to make money from investing in smaller company can be both
"increase of profit" and "increase in PE".

You argue that big company the management is better?
Look at Sime Darby, massive loss. Look at CitiGroup or Citibank, bailout

Types of Investor- Series 8- Profit Switcher Investor

Types of Investor- Series 8- Switcher Investor
Profit Switcher Investor
I use real life example, my friend called Mitsubishi (fictitious name).
He buys counters and sells when he makes profit. He will switch to other
counters.

I see people switch here switch there, good market make money, bad
market loss money. No point switching and incur brokerage.

How MITSUBISHI or you can be improved?
POINT 1
You must ask why your counter up? Up too much? If not supported by
fundamental, then ok sell. If due to strong valuation, maybe can go up
again.

POINT 2
Why switch to other counter?
Counter A is RM3.00. Counter B is RM2.00
Bought counter A RM3.00.
Counter A went up to RM3.60 and counter B up to RM2.40
Both up 20%
Sell counter A and buy counter B.
Why switch? Both already up. Because you were holding counter A, so you
thought up already and time to sell. Not realizing that counter B also
up already. When market down, both also down.

POINT 3
You switch here switch there will incur a lot of brokerage.

POINT 4
When market down, no matter what counters you hold also down. Why
switch? When market down, normally you are holding your SECOND best
counter because you sold your BEST counter.
POINT 5
Can switch if want to diversify.
A RM10,000
B RM4,000
So sell RM4,000 A, and buy C RM4,000
No need to wait for A to make profit then switch, can switch anytime if
want to diversify.

POINT 6
Can switch if your counter fundamental is not good anymore. So can
switch to a better counter.
POINT 7
You switch because you think (or you are so sure) it will come down. So
can consider sell RM10,000, switch only RM6,000 to another counter. When
it comes down (you are so sure), use the RM4,000 to buy back.
If you think it will come down, why don't you wait and buy it back? If
you have switched to other counter in full, you got no more money to buy
back.

Conclusion:
My friend MITSUBISHI made very little money by switching here and there.
But he can be improved if he adjusts his trading or investment according
to all or some of the above.

Will Picorp Drop Further?

Picorp up from RM0.16 (dividend etc adjusted price) in May 2007 to
RM0.80 in May 2008 and now drop to RM0.22. Down 73%.
Polite Market's Comment:
Any price increase must be supported by fundamental. If not, very soon
it will drop back HARD, even market is up.
Other good fundamental stocks will drop a bit due to profit taking.
Both also will drop during bear market, but the first one will drop
harder.
Anyone know when will Picorp find its bottom?

Monday, June 7, 2010

What to Short/Sell KLCI?

Many of you are bearish. Euro debt will be worse.
You think the market will go down further.

Polite Market's Comments:
Do you want to short/sell Futures Index?
KLCI closed at 1286
KLCI June 2010 Futures index closed at 1279
To trade/play/invest 1 lot Futures index, you need to pay RM3,000
Assuming you short/sell 1 lot futures at 1279. If our (you and me)
prediction is true, the market down, on 25 June the value will be
example 1200. Then you close back at 1200 and make 79 points.

You make 79 points X RM50 = RM3,950.
You invested RM3,000 and make RM3,950
FAST MONEY?
If you are not familiar with Futures, feel free to ask me. I am very
willing to explain. I'm quite familiar with Futures. But I'm not trading
in futures because I don't know how to predict the market. If you know,
then Futures is a good place for you to make FAST money.

Freight Management- 5 BUY calls

I read from the web...
Many are having BUY recommendation or good recommendation on Freight
Management, I saw already got 5. Probably got more.
Fair Value
Standard & Poor's RM0.98
RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd RM1.40
Mercury Securities Sdn Bhd RM0.97

Polite Market's Comments:
I don't think anyone interested in Freight due to market sentiment, low
volume, football, and slow.
Most investors are interest in something FAST. Can make 10% in less than
3 weeks. Some are very successful, but very few. Similar to direct
selling, a few make it to the top and make millions, but most are at the
bottom that have to give up after few years.
Congratulation to those that can make FAST money. I wish I am one of
you.

IPO Malaysian Genomics Resource Centre Bhd (MGRC)

Read in The Star
Plan for IPO
Chose the ACE Market, as opposed to the Main Market, as the former is a
faster route to raising capital for the expansion of our business
Malaysian Genomics Resource Centre Bhd (MGRC), a company that
specialises in the provision of bioinformatics application services,
which involves the extraction and analysis of meaningful data from DNA.

Established in 2004.
Executive director and co-founder Munirah Abdul Hamid
DNA - the nucleic acid in the cells of every living organism - is found
to contain unique genetic information that regulates the development and
functioning of a particular living organism, be it a human, animal or
plant.
For the financial year (FY) ended May 31, 2009, MGRC posted a net profit
of RM12mil on revenue of RM17mil, compared with a net profit of RM1.8mil
on revenue of RM6.2mil for FY2008, and net profit of RM5,507 and revenue
of RM2mil for FY2007.
For the six months to November 2009, MGRC raked in a net profit of
RM9.6mil on revenue of RM12.6mil.
According to Frost & Sullivan, the global bioinformatics industry was
worth US$19bil in 2009. The emerging sector, says the international
research company, is expected to expand at a compounded annual growth
rate of 21.4% to reach US$50.1bil by 2014.
MGRC's proposed listing involves a public issue of 17.1 million new
ordinary shares of 10 sen each, which represent 18.17% of the company's
enlarged paid-up capital of 94.1 million shares or RM9.41mil
post-listing. Of the total new shares to be issued, 14.5 million will be
placed out to selected investors, two million for public subscription,
and the remainder for eligible directors and business associates. The
flotation exercise will also see an offer for sale of two million
shares.
However, the indicative price for the initial public offering (IPO) has
yet to be made known.
Polite Market's Comments:
A company in something new or in a growing industry not necessary can
make profit. I saw many VOIP (Voice over IP) company closed down just
after few years.

Be your Boss' Boss

If you buy Maybank shares, you are the co-owner of Mabank

Polite Market's Comment:
If you work in public listed company, and you also hold the shares,
please be informed that your boss is working for you. If you are not
holding any shares, please buy it, so that your boss will be under you.

Buy Mamee RM3.63 + Dividend

Read in the news....
Inter-Pacific Outperform on Mamee-Double Decker Bhd (RM2.96).
Target price of RM3.63.
1)Good track record and competence to develop food products and
branding;
2)Net cash position of 56 sen per share !!!
3)High dividend payout policy, MINIMUM 50%
4)Strong presence in Australia and with Coles, Australia's
second-largest retailer is knocking on their doors; and
5)a beverage segment - comprising yogurt drink, Nutrigen, and soft
drinks - is making its present felt.

Polite Market's Comments:
Now due to market uncertainties, many investors are interested in
rescission proof stock and high dividend stocks like Mamme

Friday, June 4, 2010

Bonia can grow?

Bonia (9288) RM1.03
What is stock market PEGGY method?
What is PEGGY method?
PE G G Y
PE Price Earnings ratio 7
G Growth >20% for next few years. PE will then drop lower.
G Gearing: Net cash
Y Yield: Dividend Yield 7.2%
Polite Market's Comments:
Payout ratio 50%, assumption only, no policy, 2009 pay >50% payout ratio
Internal Target RM500mil revenue and RM50mil net profit by 2013
Assuming same number of shares, EPS will then be RM0.245 per share.
2009 revenue was RM314mil and profit RM23.6
If can grow, then can buy.

Mamee Bhd in World Cup

Read in the news...
The Board of Directors of Mamee-Double Decker (M) Berhad said the
Management has set a target to achieve RM1 billion revenue in five
years' time. This target would be achievable through the implementation
of various growth strategies which was with full support of the Group's
staffs, including enhancing our distribution channel locally and
overseas, developing and launching new products, as well as undertaking
marketing efforts to build our brands.

Polite Market's Comment:
The company said achievable. They are confident.
For reference 2009 Revenue was RM411mil
A MINIMUM 50% dividend payout ratio, to be paid semi-annually basis.
Hopefully world cup more people will eat Mister Potato.
Tengok Bola
Tidur Bola
Minum Coca-Cola
Makan Mister Potato.

Kenmark 004 Deal or No Deal

I heard CLIENT 004 bought Kenmark 30,000 0.125 on Wednesday b4
suspended. Just now sold at RM0.285. A whooping profit RM4,800 with only
RM3,750 capital.
Polite Market's Comment:
Dear Client 004, good profit, well done! Can buy us lunch? Deal or No
Deal. By visiting my sponsor/ advertisement, you consider buying me
lunch. Thanks in advance.

Still Need Remisier?

Recently in newspaper ask Do We Still Need Remisier?
They talk about online trades, remisier give better services, etc.

Polite Market's Comment:
I think we still need remisier. When BAD CLIENTs refuse to pay the
losses, remisier will have to bear the losses.
Without remisier, brokers unwilling to let clients to buy if without
collateral or cash upfront, especially big purchase.
Without remisier, clients have to pay first then only can trade.
Just like Ramly Burger, McDonald, Chinese Economic Rice, pay first eat
later.
With remisier, clients trade first pay later.
Just like Mamak stall, Pizza Hut Restaurant, eat first pay later.

Thursday, June 3, 2010

Should I Get HELP?

Should I get HELP (RM2.27) counter in my portfolio?

Polite Market's Comments:
HELP dividend payout ratio is low, about 15% only. I heard they need the
money for expansion.
But I prefer counter that pay high dividend, at the same time still can
expand. LPI is a good example. They no need additional money (paying 70%
to 100% as dividend) but yet they are still expanding. If LPI price drop
further I will buy.

HELP is in my list. They have RM0.40 CASH. I am buying stocks
periodically. Can not buy all at once. Maybe next round.

Mister Potato Rice Crisps No MSG

Read in the news ... ...
Mister Potato Rice Crisps: No monosodium glutamate (MSG)
Mamee-Double Decker (M) Bhd expects its latest product, Mister Potato
Rice Crisps, to further boost its performance for this financial year.
Group managing director/chief executive officer is Datuk Pang Tee Chew
Mister Potato Rice Crisps combines the wholesome goodness of rice with
the tastiness of potatoes.
The improvement in communications with the distributors helped boost the
company's revenue
The snack division was the main contributor to the group's revenue of 56
per cent, and the rest from noodles and beverages.
The group's top export markets include Australia, Singapore, Russia,
Hong Kong and the Netherlands.
Polite Market's Comment:
The dividend payout ratio POLICY is 50%.

NTPM + MAMEE

Yesterday bought MAMEE & NTPM
NTPM is highlighted by Chong.
Mamee is from OSK 50 Jewels 2010

Polite Market's Comment:
I still think the market is weak. But I am not an expert, and I always
got it wrong!! Unable to make money.
I bought because I am sticking to my investment plan that I keep buying.
And this has proven can make money.
If I can predict the market, I already trading futures/derivatives. But
I am just a long term investor not a trader.

Kenmark 003 BUY us Lunch

Client 001
Bought 10,000 Kenmark in April RM0.85 = RM8,500
Now Kenmark RM0.10 = RM1,000
LOSS RM7,500
Client 002
Bought 10,000 Kenmark in April RM0.85 = RM8,500
Buy additional 100,000 Kenmark at RM0.05 = RM5,000
Total cost RM13,500
Now Kenmark RM0.10 (x 110,000 shares) = RM11,000
LOSS RM2,500
Client 003
Bought 10,000 Kenmark in April RM0.85 = RM8,500
Buy additional 170,000 Kenmark at RM0.05 = RM8,500
Total cost RM17,000
Now Kenmark RM0.10 (x 180,000 shares) = RM18,000
GAIN RM1,000

Polite Market's Comment:
As you can see above, even Kenmark price has BIG loss 88%, client 003
still make RM1,000. Client 002 buy back, but with different value.
Client 001 has stopped trading AND TELL THE FAMILY, FRIENDS AND THE
WHOLE WORLD THAT STOCK MARKET CHEAT PEOPLE.

Conclusion,
Keep Buying
Buy the SAME VALUE (in this case is RM8,500)
Keep Buying
If you are 003, can buy us lunch?

SunREIT IPO

Read in the news...
In July, Sunway Real Estate Investment Trust may raise about RM1.65
billion in its initial public offering.
IPO price probably RM1.00
Four cornerstone investors, Employees Provident Fund, Permodalan
Nasional Bhd, Government of Singapore Investment Corp and Great Eastern
Life Assurance (Malaysia) Bhd. agreeing to buy a 14 per cent stake.

Polite Market's Comment:
What is so special about Sunway REIT? I have read many many times in the
newspaper since 2 years ago. Special because it keeps delaying.

Coke & Chips Bhd

During 2010 World Cup
See Football
Sleep Football
Drink coca-cola
EAT MISTER POTATO
EAT MISTER POTATO
EAT MISTER POTATO
EAT MISTER POTATO
EAT MISTER POTATO

Polite Market's Comment
I bought MAMEE-DOUBLE DECKER (M) BERHAD shares. They are the maker of
MISTER POTATO

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

100 K-Star ONLY

K-Star IPO received 1,067 applicants. 752 of them applied for 100 SHARES
ONLY

Polite Market's Comment:
Why got 752 applicant applied for just 100 shares ONLY?
Is it regulation for shareholders spread?

Kenmark more than TOTAL

Kenmark total number of listed shares is just 181,749,000 units
On 01/06/2010, total volume done for Kenmark was 190,000,000 units, more
than the total listed shares. Which is 104.54% of total shares listed.
Polite Market's Comment:
You can see the intraday trade is so huge. I think there also be some
oversold, but not many.
Do you think EON Bank has started selling?
By the way, Kenmark "may" soon be suspended (pls refer to Bursa)

K-Star I was Wrong

K-Star IPO RM2.15
I thought the company can perform magic and fully subscribed.
But I WAS WRONG. It is undersubscribed

PEGGY
PE 3.8x
G Growth 15%. ROE about 25%
G Gearing = net cash
Y Yield dividend, 3% ? ? ? ?

Polite Market's Comment:
China stocks/ company
Multi Sports Holdings Ltd & XiDeLang Holdings Ltd have not paid dividend
yet.
Only Xingquan International Sports Holdings paid very little.
As long as they don't pay out good dividend, people will doubt their
projected figure.

Made How Many Percent

I Made How Many Percent? I wish I know.
I'm unable to know how many percent I made or loss on the capital
because:
I always take out and spend on the sales proceed (buy gold, hp, etc)
I always got fresh capital injection (from income)
I started to record on 22/10/2007. I did a rough estimate, about 25% -
30% gain on capital.
On 22/10/2007, KLCI was 1255. Now is 1283. Up a mere 2.2%. So I
outperform the KLCI.

But I think my 25-30% is very NOT good enough for two and a half years.
My justification is:
1) 2008 was a VERY BAD year, many investors never recover. I still
alive.
2) I also started without PEGGY and Warrant Buffet.
3) I still outperform the KLCI.

Why I did POORLY in the beginning:
a) Concentrate and hit very badly by plantation stocks. Warrant Buffet
said don't get too much in commodity stocks because difficult for them
to charge higher margin and be different.
b) Sell when just made 10 - 20%. Loss is more than 20%
c) Too focus on PE, selected many wrong stocks with negative or no
growth
d) Underestimate the power of dividend
e) Panic sell when market down. Refuse to buy when the price already up.
f) Buy stock in different amount. Gain in small, loss in big.

How I was able to improve:
a) Invest in different industries
b) Let my profit grow, rather than just sell after 10-20%. Many profits
are more than 50% and some more than 100%.
c) Use PEGGY in stock selection
d) Check out on the company dividend yield and dividend payout ratio
e) Keep buying periodically
f) Use same amount value in every purchase

How I think I will perform in short/medium/long term:
SHORT TERM
All my profit probably will be wiped out.
Why I don't sell now? I cannot predict the market, I am NOT an expert. I
am just a long term investor, similar to chicken rice stall owner who
sell chicken rice for long term. They seldom sell their stall when got
Asia Financial crisis, US sub prime crisis or Euro debt crisis.

MEDIUM TERM
As I keep buying, my holdings will increase. When market recovers, I can
make from many stocks that I have bought. IF market recovers. If not,
then my losses will be huge.

LONG TERM
As my portfolio will increase to big amount. Fear will come in. Probably
will invest less risky counters and diversify. So my return will drop!!

Conclusion:
If investors follow "How I was able to improve" from a to f, I think
they can improve in their investment. I think so.

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Maxis Why Waste

25/05/2010 announced Final single tier tax exempt dividend of 3 sen per
ordinary share
Payment date 15/07/2010
31/05/2010 announced First interim Single-tier Tax Exempt Dividend of 8
sen per ordinary share
Payment date 30/06/2010

Polite Market's Comment:
Why payment date is so near? Why don't just combine? I know the 3 sen
need AGM approval. But why don't just pay everything on 15/07/2010? If
approve pay 11 sen, if not then just 8 sen.
Don't waste time, paper and money.

I was right on Sarawak Cable Bhd IPO

Sarawak Cable Bhd first day IPO close at RM0.675.
My prediction is to close at above RM0.67, below RM0.70.
So, I was right this time.

Polite Market's Comment:
My IPO experience....
Price Jump on IPO
Guessed correctly, applied but didn't strike
Guessed wrongly so didn't apply.
So no gain.

Price Drop on IPO
Guessed wrongly, applied, strike and suffer loss.
Guessed correctly, so didn't apply.
Only on few occasions applied, strike, and gain.
Bad experience with IPO. Now not so interested in IPO. It lockout my
cash flow.
Those gains manage to cover the loss. Should I continue to apply IPO?
I'm not good in that.

How Polite Market Perform?

How polite Market perform since August 2007. Went through super bear bad
market in 2008.
Number of buy = 105
Number of Loss (paper + realized) = 28 (27%)
Worst Loss is 55%
Number of Gain (paper + realized) = 76 (73%)
Best gain is 178%

Polite Market's Comment:
Point One
If I invested RM1,000 on each, my worst loss is RM550
But my best gain is RM1,780

Point Two
My gain is 76 times, loss is 28 times. Assuming gain I made 10%, loss I
also made 10%, end of it I still made 48 times X 10% = 480%.

Point Three
Assuming I made 52 gain, and loss 52. I still made profit. Because some
of my gain are above 100%. All my loss is less than 100%.
Point Four
Even I made 76 times loss and made just 28 times gain, I may still make
profit. Because the max loss is 55% but many gain are more than 55% and
the max gain is unlimited.
Conclusion
1) Buy Equal amount of value, eg RM2,000 per BUY transaction
2) Keep buying
3) Don't sell at little profit. Let it grow.

Followers

Disclaimer

Disclaimer Clause
The information contained in this blog is my personal diary and has been prepared solely for myself. Without any previous reading material or discussion, by just reading my blog contents, reader may misunderstand the contents.
All the contents I am talking to myself and most contents are hypothetical or imaginary.
This blog has been compiled in good faith, with no intention to cause hurt, loss, or any trouble. No representation is (either express or implied) as to the completeness or accuracy of the information it contains.
This blog also is not an advice, recommendation or an invitation to buy or sell or invest in anything, eg shares, futures, derivatives, gold, etc. Consult your investment adviser before making any decisions.
The copyright of the material contained in my blog remains solely with me. You shall not copy, reproduce and / or distribute this information without my permission.