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Monday, August 30, 2010

Kossan Analysis Research Report BUY Target Price Fair Value

Kossan Target Price Fair Value
Kossan Analysis Research Report
- PEGGY Method
Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd (7153)- RM3.46
-
Let us do my PEGGY method test:
PE: P/E ratio 9.3x, Dec 2010
G: Growth 12.7% per year. Jan 2011 - Dec 2012
G: Gearing 0.18 x. Net cash in 2012
Y: Yield (Dividend). Gross 1.5%
Figure I saw from the rhbresearch web
-
-
POLITEMARKET'S COMMENT:
PE ratio is 9.3x. Ok, normal
The Growth is 12.7% per year, OK
Gearing- ok
Dividend yield- Gross 1.5%- Low side
-
-
PE average, but with 12.7% growth, ok. PE will drop to 7.3 in 2012
Many disputed on the growth rate and many forecast an oversupply of
glove from 2012.
But some said still a growing industry.
-
Because of uncertainty of different forecasts, you need to have high
dividend to lower your investment cost. But Kossan dividend is not so
good.
-
For info,
OSK Kossan Traget price is RM5.65.
RHB Kossan Fair value is RM5.36

-
Up to you to judge whether glove is still a growing industry or
oversupply.
-

EKIB Target Price Fair Value 200% Upside Buy Buy Buy

Can you find a stock that analyst fair value target price is 200% higher than current market price. Look at EKIB- RM0.55.

Read my comment under the link. . . .

http://politemarket.blogspot.com/2010/08/ekib-analysis-research-report-target.html

Saturday, August 28, 2010

Fire waterfall Yosemite National Park California USA Real Tour?

Yosemite National Park, California , USA.
Real or False. Truth or False. Tour?
Got korean restaurant in yosemite national park?

This park was gazetted as a national park in 1890. It is world famous
for its rugged terrain, waterfall and century-old pine trees. It covers
1200 sq km and the "fire" waterfall of El Capitan is one of the most
spectacular of all scenery.

The spectacular view of the waterfall is created by the reflection of
sunlight hitting the falling water at a specific angle. This rare sight
can only be seen at a 2-week period towards the end of February. To
photograph this rare event, photographers would often have to wait and
endure years of patience in order to capture them. The reason is because
its appearance depends on a few natural phenomenon occurring at the same
time and luck.

1st, Is the formation of the waterfall - The water is formed by the
melting of snow and ice at the top of the mountain. It melts between the
month of December and January and by the end of February there might not
have much snow left to melt.

2nd, is the specific angle of the sunray hitting the falling water - The
sun's position must be exactly at a particular spot in the sky. This
occurs only in the month of February and at the short hours of dusk. If
it is a day full of clouds or something blocking the sun, you can only
take pictures of your own sorry faces on the waterfall. It coincides
with the fact that the weather in the National Park at that time of the
year is often volatile and unpredictable. It compounds to the difficulty
of getting these pictures.

Someone did !!! and we all get to see it !!!

yosemite national park california usa fire waterfall
Got korean restaurant in yosemite national park?

Friday, August 27, 2010

EKIB Analysis Research Report target Price

EKIB Fair Value Target Price
EKIB Analysis Research Report
- PEGGY Method
Emas Kiara Industries Bhd (7189)- RM0.51

Let us do my PEGGY method test:
PE: P/E ratio 4.2x, Dec 2010
G: Growth 13% per year. Jan 2011 - Dec 2012
G: Gearing- 0.5 x.
Y: Yield (Dividend). Gross 2.7%
Figure I saw from the rhbresearch web

POLITEMARKET'S COMMENT:
PE ratio is 4.2x. Superb Good
The Growth is 13% per year, Good
Gearing- 0.5, Up to you to judge
Dividend yield- Gross 2.7%- so so only

The PE is very low, only 4.2x and growing 13% per year.
RHB fair value RM1.52 (200% upside ! ! !)
Based on the above, it is BUY BUY and BUY
But in PEGGY, you also need to look at gearing and dividend.
Dividend is so so and gearing is quite high.

Buy if you don't mind the low dividend, high gearing, illiquid, and small company (market capitalisation is only RM43 million).

Fair Value Plus or Minus Dividend?

Why analysts didn't include dividend into computation of Fair Value Target price. I think they should.

Stock A
Share Price RM1.00
Earnings per share RM0.10
If profit increase by 10%, so after three years will be RM0.133
Share price will be RM1.33
Dividend yield 1st year RM0.03 (dividend yield 3%), then RM0.033,
then RM0.036
Gain RM0.33 + RM0.099 = RM0.429

Stock B
Share Price RM1.00
Earnings per share RM0.10
If profit increase by 7%, so after three years will be RM0.123
Share price will be RM1.23
Dividend yield 1st year RM0.08 (dividend yield 8%), then RM0.086,
then RM0.092
Gain = RM0.23 + 0.258 = RM0.488

Stock A grow at RM10%, stock B grow ONLY 7%. But after three years you made more from stock B than stock A. Reason is stock B pay higher dividend than stock A.

POLITE MARKET'S COMMENTS:
Analysts normally use earnings by share (EPS) multiply by Industry PE ratio.
Example EPS is RM0.60, industry PE ratio is 10, so fair value is RM6.00
IF the share price now is RM5.30, upside is only 13%, they will say
HOLD, or MARKET PERFORM.

I saw one analyst use upside potential 13% add 8% = total 21%, so he says buy. But I couldn't recall what company is that.
In my opinion, we should include the dividend to arrive at the Fair Value Target Price. That is why my PEGGY method, PEGG and the Y is Yield (Dividend).

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Freight Management Bhd- Analysis Research Report- BUY Target Price Fair Value

Freight Management Bhd Fair Value Target Price
Freight Management Analysis Research Report
- PEGGY Method
Freight Management Bhd (7210)- RM0.92
-
Let us do my PEGGY method test:
PE: P/E ratio 6.8x, June 2010
G: Growth 7.3% per year. July 2010 - Jun 2013
G: Gearing- 0.1 x. Net cash in 2012
Y: Yield (Dividend). Gross 5.4%
Figure I saw from the rhbresearch web
-
-
POLITEMARKET'S COMMENT:
PE ratio is 6.8x. Good
The Growth is 7.3% per year, so so only
Gearing- ok
Dividend yield- Gross 5.4%- Average good
-
-
The PE is low, only 6.8x, with dividend yield of 5.4%.
But the growth forecast by RHB is rather low.
2011 (13.8%)
2012 (4.2%)
2013 (4%)
-
If from 2012 and 2013 the growth is so low, the share price also will
increase very little only.
But the share price can increase substantially if there is more volume
for this counter and it will trade at higher PE.
Because 2012 and 2013 is still far away, hopefully Freight can achieve
profit higher than RHB analysts forecast.
Analyst will normally revise their forecast very three months when
things are getting clearer.
-
If you think this company can achieve higher growth, then this is
definitely a BUY. But if you think you agree with RHB forecast, then
this company is not exiting. They only offer low PE and good dividend.
Due to strong financially, hopefully they can buy other business to grow
their profit, hopefully.
RHB Freight fair value RM1.57 (BUY)
OSK Freight fair value RM1.40 (BUY)
-
Statement from Board of Directors:
Current year prospects
The Group remains focused on its core business in the provision of
freight services. In addition, the Group continues to seek opportunities
to grow its businesses through potential acquisition within the industry
both in domestic and regional markets. Based on the steady performance
of FY10 and the improvement in both global and domestic business
sentiments, the Board of Directors is cautiously optimistic of achieving
a steady performance for the new financial year ending 30 June 2011.

-

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Pramount- Analysis Research Report- BUY Target Price Fair Value

Paramon also an education counter
Paramount Fair Value Target Price
Paramount Bhd Analysis Research Report
- PEGGY Method
Paramount Corporation Bhd (1724)- RM4.40
-
Let us do my PEGGY method test:
PE: P/E ratio 7.5x, Dec 2010
G: Growth 11.5% per year. Jan 2011- Dec 2012
G: Gearing- Net cash
Y: Yield (Dividend). Gross 6.7%
Figure I saw from the rhbresearch web
-
-
POLITEMARKET'S COMMENT:
PE ratio is 7.5x. Average OK
The Growth is 11.5% per year, average good
Gearing- net cash
Dividend yield- Gross 6.7%- Good
-
-
Reasons for buying:
1) Can you get any stock with low PE, decent growth, net cash and high
dividend? Paramount is.
2) Disposing Jerneh Insurance. Nobody know the price yet, but it is
estimated that the sales proceed Paramount get is about RM1.00 per
share.
3)Got special dividend from selling Jerneh? I don't know.
3) SEGI and HELP have run up. Paramount also involve in education. They
own KDU, Kolej Damansara Utama.
4) Some said they may list KDU IPO, but not so soon or may not
materialize.
5)RHB has just initiated coverage on Paramon. If more brokers cover
Paramon, then it will trade at higher volume, so higher PE and higher
price.
6)RHB Paramoun fair value target price is RM5.80 (32% upside)

-
-
RISK:
Jerneh sale aborted.
The price actually moved up from about RM2.80 early this year. So has
gone up a lot.
But for long term, we shall not look at previous price. If now is GOOD
means is GOOD. Public Bank share price has gone up since 40 years ago.
QL already went up about 8 times for the past 10 years. Meaning cannot
buy Public Bank or QL?
If you really care about short term price fluctuation, can always look
at Paramon technical chart. I am not good at that.
If there any special risk that we should know? Please share with me.
-
Paramon Fair Value Target Price from RHB
Paramon Analysis Research Report saw from RHB web
-

KL Stock Market pushed up by Durian Fund

Early August 2010, I wrote that the stock market down because investor sold their shares to buy durian to eat. But after market down, why now up until 1,400 point?

The reason is the durian sellers made huge money from selling durian, they use these money to invest in the stock market. So the Durian Fund is so big that it manged to push the KLCI above 1,400 points.

Earlier post....
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/2010/08/stock-market-hit-by-durian.html

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Will Writing -FAQ

Will Writing -Frequent Ask Question FAQ
How much? One off?
Keep with will writing company, annual fee?
Who will be the executor or administrator?
What is the different between executor and administrator?
How much is the executor fee?
If my beneficiary is below 18, eg 10 years old, will the executor charge me 8 years of fees?
If my beneficiary is below 18, need to appoint trustee?
Who is the trustee?
What the trustee do?
Any fees charge by trustee?
Who gonna feed my beneficiary before he turns 18?
How will writing company know I pass away. I have to inform someone I trust that I have will in will writing company? If he also die?
What if I have no will?
How much if I want to amend?
How Will Writing Company know where is my asset? Do I need to update yearly?
What if everything is settled, and one year later someone find out I got other asset?
What is the charges on this?
If some of my assets require decision or action, eg rights issue, who will make the decision.
What is I have asset but I forgot to list down in the will?
Why I see some people give the house to more than one person? Does it problematic to have more than one owner?
What is my beneficiary also pass away? Same day with me. One week before/after me. 6 months  before/after me. Got a schedule on this?
Is my witness die, is my will still valid?
How to know whether my will is genuine?
Can I select my own executor? Must the person be qualified?
What is will writing company close down?
Can I take a sample and write my own will?
If my will got more beneficiary or many splitting, charge more?
etc
etc
etc

POLITE MARKET'S COMMENTS:
I have so many questions. I afraid if I ask but don't want to sign up, will the salesman/ sales girl/ sales person/ sales woman get angry?

Monday, August 23, 2010

Maybank- Analysis Research Report- Target Price Fair Value

Maybank Fair Value Target Price
Maybank Analysis Research Report
- PEGGY Method
Malayan Banking Bhd (1155)- RM8.13
-
Let us do my PEGGY method test:
PE: P/E ratio 13.1x, Jun 2011
G: Growth 10% per year. July 2011- Jun 2013
G: Gearing- n/a for bank
Y: Yield (Dividend). Net 5.1% 2010, 3.2% 2011
Figure I saw from the rhbresearch web
-
-
POLITEMARKET'S COMMENT:
PE ratio is 13.1x. Average high
The Growth is 10% per year, average good
Gearing- n/a for bank
Dividend yield- Net 3.2%-5.1%. Normal
-
-
Although the PE is average high, but because big fund managers can only
buy KLCI or bluechips counters, so the PE can considered average.
The dividend is not stable, this time RM0.44 is a surprise to many.
But some analysts forecast that future dividend may be slightly lower.
The RM0.44, RM0.40 can opt for Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP). The
price allowed is up to 10% discount to the volume weighted average
market price.
-
Overall I see Maybank as an average counter. I saw RHB fair value is
RM9.86
But Maybank is a bit different because of KLCI and Bluchips, and high
volume.
Long term track records, profit forecast easily predictable, which is
good.
But one thing is that it is a government linked counter.
So some of the decisions it makes may not be in the best interest of the
shareholders. That is why previously under selling pressure because
paying a very high price to purchase some regional banks.
-
Many of my friends are lover of Maybank counters. They are making profit
now.
Wishing them all the best.

-

Saturday, August 21, 2010

Variuos News 21 August 2010

DXN Holdings Bhd, a health food supplements and health products manufacturer, where currently over 85 per cent of their products are marketed overseas, hope to increase the percentage to 90 per cent. They will focus more on overseas markets as part of their expansion plan to be a global player in the multi-level marketing (MLM) industry.
Chief Executive Officer is Datuk Dr Lim Siow Jin.
They are very active in foreign markets. They are operating in more than 150 countries. The Philippines, India, Middle East and Europe (Hungary) are their main overseas market
Their new market is Latin America where they start with Mexico and Peru. - Bernama
-
Senior vice president Pete Karolczak said Hewlett Packard will invest US$1 billion (about RM3.1 billion) to transform its enterprise services business or end-to-end information technology services to better serve its customers.
-
Electrical and electronics company Panasonic (3719) plans to bring more of its China-made products to its manufacturing facilities in Malaysia to bring down costs.
Products such as washing machines, televisions and refrigerators that are now being manufactured in China. This is due to high freight and shipping charges. Panasonic Malaysia Sdn Bhd managing director is Jeff Lee.
-


 
 

Friday, August 20, 2010

LonBisc- Can Buy?

Reply Comment:
I don't have info on LonBics. Unless someone can send to me.
-
At RM1.00 I heard this company is quite cheap to buy, consumer stocks
with good valuation. But not sure now at RM1.20 is still ok.
Many people commented on the high gearing.
-
It is ok to have high gearing for mature and stable industry, in order
to capitalize on returns to shareholders. Digi, Maxis and BAT have high
gearing.
I can't really comment on it because no info.
-

JCY- By CIMB

Someone saw recommendation from CIMB on JCY target price RM 2.28
(current price RM 1.17) 94.87% upside.
I think this is an old report. JCY just reported their quarterly result
on 20/08/2010. Please get updated CIMB report on Monday.
-

APM BUY- Analysis Research Report- Target Price Fair Value

APM Automotives Fair Value Target Price RM5.53
APM Automotives Analysis Research Report
- PEGGY Method
APM Automotives Holdings Bhd (5015)- RM4.91
-
Let us do my PEGGY method test:
PE: P/E ratio 10.5x, Dec 2010
G: Growth 10.3% per year. Jan 2011- Dec 2012
G: Gearing- Net cash
Y: Yield (Dividend). Gross 2.6%
Figure I saw from the rhbresearch web
-
-
POLITEMARKET'S COMMENT:
PE ratio is 10.5x. Average
The Growth is 10.5% per year, average good
Gearing- net cash
Dividend yield- Gross 2.6%- average
-
-
Reasons for buying are net cash, with averaging good growth and paying
dividend.
Reasons for not buying are PE is average, dividend quite on low side.
RHB fair value is RM5.53 (only 13% upside)
So, in short term, not may have big jump in price. Maybe after one year,
as the profit grow 10.3%, hopefully the price also grow 10.3% + 2.6%
dividend.
-
An Average counter.
-
APM Automotives Holdings Bhd Business Divisions:
OVERSEAS OPERATIONS
Australia
Indonesia
Vietnam
MARKETING DIVISION
Local Replacement Market
Export Market
-
INTERIOR & PLASTICS DIVISION
Automotive Seats
Plastic Parts
Body Side Mouldings
Interior Trims
Door Panels
-
SUSPENSION DIVISION
Leaf Springs
Shock Absorbers
Coil Springs
Metal Parts
Gas Springs
-
ELECTRICAL & HEAT EXCHANGE DIVISION
Starter Motors
Alternators
Wiper Systems
Distributors
Engine Management Systems
Air-Conditioning Systems
Condensers
Evaporators
Compressors
Radiators

-

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Hunza Properties Research Report Analysis- PEGGY Method

Hunza Analysis Research Report
- PEGGY Method
Hunza Fair Value Target Price
Hunza Properties Berhad (5018)- RM1.40
-
Let us do my PEGGY method test:
PE: P/E ratio 5.1x, Jun 2011
G: Growth Negative 19% per year. July 2011- June 2013
G: Gearing- 0.1
Y: Yield (Dividend). Gross 4%
Figure I saw from the rhbresearch web
-
-
POLITEMARKET'S COMMENT:
PE ratio is 5.1x. Good
The Growth is negative, BAD
Gearing- ok
Dividend yield- Gross 4%- OK
-
-
Although the PE is low, there is a negative growth.
This will hinder the price from going up substantially.
But if you are a long term investor, just imaging:
Every year you receive dividend, PE is low and the company is actually
generating average RM0.20 per year, your share price is only RM1.40.
Questions: Where will the profit goes? Profit is cash or debtor?
You think they will reward you later?
If they announce more projects, then RHB will probably change their
forecast
By the way, RHB has not factor in the contribution form Bayan Baru
project.
-
This counter is cheap, and the PE is so low that if they manage to grow
their profit in 2012 or 2012, the price will definitely go up.
If their profit drop, don't worry, the price will drop a bit but not
have sharp correction, because the PE already so low.
-
One thing I don't understand, current price is RM1.40, RHB fair value is
RM1.58, but why they are having a TRADING BUY on this counter. It is
just 12.8% upside. What is so special that not BUY recommendation but
TRADING BUY?
-
-

ILB Integrated Logistics BUY- Analysis Research Report- Target Price

ILB Integrated Logistics Fair Value Target Price
ILB Integrated Logistics Analysis Research Report
- PEGGY Method
ILB Integrated Logistics (5614)- RM0.97
-
Let us do my PEGGY method test:
PE: P/E ratio 10x, Dec 2010
G: Growth 8.6% per year. Jan 2011- Dec 2012
G: Gearing- Net cash
Y: Yield (Dividend). Gross 2%
Figure I saw from the rhbresearch web- Fair Value Target Price RM1.48
-
-
POLITEMARKET'S COMMENT:
Year 2007, the price was RM1.80 with buy recommendation.
Previous seven quarters, 3 result within expectation, 3 below
expectation, and one above expectation.
See what happened now? Crisis is over, but the price is only RM0.97.
We cannot really trust ILB forecast figure, they are very hard to
predict.
To make money from ILB, you need to buy low and sell high. Do trading.
I am not good at that.
-

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

MBMR MBM Resources BUY- Analysis Research Report- Target Price

MBMR MBM Resources Fair Value Target Price RM5.30/ RM4.63
MBMR MBM Resources Bhd Analysis Research Report
- PEGGY Method
MBMR MBM Resources Bhd (5983)- RM3.16
-
Let us do my PEGGY method test:
PE: P/E ratio 7x, Dec 2010
G: Growth 5% per year. Jan 2011- Dec 2012
G: Gearing- Net cash
Y: Yield (Dividend). Gross 3.7%
Figure I saw from the rhbresearch web
-
-
POLITEMARKET'S COMMENT:
PE ratio is 7x. Low, GOOD
The Growth is 5% per year, BAD
Gearing- net cash
Dividend yield- Gross 3.7%- Normal
-
-
Net cash, PE low with average dividend.
But why RHB forecast growth rate so low?
RHB fair value is RM5.30 (68% upside)
OSK Target price is RM4.63 (46% upside)
That will give you motivation to buy.
-
MBMR will be spending a total of RM100m capex in 2010-12 to upgrade
their existing network into 3S and expansion of their distribution and
dealership with Volkswagon, Hino and Mitsubishi.
-
This counter is cheap to buy, net cash and the PE is so low and paying
dividend. But as per RHB forecast, there is lack of growth for year 2011
and 2012. This is very important factor.
-
Better check with other brokers and see whether the company can grow at
a higher rate than what RHB forecast.
-
If you are holding or decided to buy, no worry. The stock will not drop
and die. The PE is low and RHB and OSK also have a fair value much
higher than the current market price. The stock may trade higher due to
higher volume, that will increase the PE. Furthermore, growth is
forecast, and hopefully they can grow higher than what RHB forecast.
-

Should I Sell My Gold?


After having bought Gold at 2008 at the above purchase price, now making some gain.
Initially was losing money, so I average it.
Now the price is about RM120 per gram I think.

I admit I made A BIG MISTAKE that I didn't buy more.
I stop buying because I realised that gold does not multiply.
One gold coin after 50 years is still one gold coin.
If it goes up to RM200 per gram, so what?
Sell? I just don't know when to sell or when to buy.
You know when to sell or buy?

What should I do? Sell? Buy more? Keep? Sell and buy back? Buy back at what price? When?

So many golden questions.

I think I stick to my stock market.
1) I can use PEGGY to buy good stock, sell when PEGGY is bad.
2) use Dollar Cost Averaging to spread out my timing risk
3)Receive good dividend that I can invest more to multiply.

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Evergreen BUY - Analysis Research Report

Evergreen Fair Value Target Price
Evergreen Analysis Research Report
- PEGGY Method
Evergreen Fibreboard Bhd(5101)- RM1.55
-
Let us do my PEGGY method test:
PE: P/E ratio 6.1x, Dec 2010
G: Growth 2.3% per year. Jan 2011- Dec 2012
G: Gearing- 0.3x
Y: Yield (Dividend). Gross 5.2%
Figure I saw from the rhbresearch web
-
-
POLITEMARKET'S COMMENT:
PE ratio is 6.1x. Low, GOOD
The Growth is 2.3%, BAD
Gearing- Manageable
Dividend yield- Gross 5.2%- Normal good
-
-
Gearing is manageable. PE low with good dividend.
But why RHB forecast growth rate so low?
RHB fair value is RM2.67
OSK Target price is RM2.63
Both quite the same. About 70% upside from current price
That will give you motivation to buy.
-
RHB Earnings Per Share (EPS) is RM0.268
Another thing you can do, check with other broker what is the EPS for
2012.
If higher than RM0.268, then the growth rate is higher than RHB
forecast.
Give you another motivation to buy.
-
Conclusion is, this counter is CHEAP, except that:
1)as per RHB forecast, there is lack of growth for year 2011 and 2012.
This is very important factor. Please check with other brokers.
2)The world medium-density-fiberboard MDF prices has a great impact on
their selling prices and profit. In 2007, Evergreen price was RM2.00.
Now 2008 crisis is over, Evergreen price still unable to pass RM2.00.
Their profit is very much depending on MDF prices.
-
Imaging you bought in 2007 at RM1.80, after few years, now crisis is
over, you are still having losses.
-
If you buy this counter, you may have to buy low and sell high, then buy
low again and sell high again. I am not good at buying low and selling
high.
-

RCE CAPITAL Research Report Analysis PEGGY Method

RCE Capital (9296) RM0.63
RCECAP fair value target price RM1.12
RCECAPITAL Research Report Analysis PEGGY Method

-
Let us do my PEGGY method test:
PE: P/E ratio 5.8x, Mar 2011
G: Growth 3.6% per year. Mar 2011- Mar 2013
G: Gearing- ?????
Y: Yield (Dividend). 3.2% gross
Figure I saw from the rhbresearch web
-
-
PEGGY Method's COMMENT:
PE ratio is 5.8x. Low
The Growth is 3.6%, low growth.
Gearing- They borrowed more than RM1billion to lend to others.
Dividend yield- 2.4 gross
-
-
The PE is low because the growth rate is low, not much much demand of this stock.

If you buy, what do you get?
Nothing. Except that because the PE is low, the stock MAY potentially trade at higher price due to higher volume or more research coverage.

Imaging if you work in a company that pay you low salary, and not much increment. Got bonus, but not sure when. You want this job?
Got job, why not? But if you got chance, better find another job.

It is still a profitable company. Buy if you think the growth rate is higher, maybe you saw a higher growth rate from other brokers that higher than RHB forecast.

For info, the above RHB target price fair value is RM1.12


By the way, if you want to know more on how to compare a job with a stock, can visit my LABEL titled:
Bonus Increment Security Salary.
Or this link . . http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/Bonus%20Increment%20Security%20Salary

Monday, August 16, 2010

DXN Fair Value Target Price RM1.50

Saw from the net that OSK has no rating for DXN.
Most probably because they are not covering this stock, but they did a write up on DXN recently with RM1.50 target price fair value.
For information.
-

Which Adsense to use?

So far I have tried many blog advertising networks such as Google Adsense, Advertlets, Nuffnang, Inity, Adpilot, Infolinks, adbrite, etc.

The best? It is still Google Adsense and Adverlets.

Why? Both are every simple, and less restriction. Very userfriendly, just sign up and paste code or add gadget, that's it.

More important is they display ads everyday and give me good income everyday.

Friday, August 13, 2010

China Stocks- Xingquan, XDL, Multi Sports, KStar Analysis

Can buy China Stocks? China Shoe Company?
Here's my comment:
-
The BIG question is not about profit figure.
It is about governance and transparency.
-
After the IPO, I don't financial figure.
But from what I observed, it didn't change much.
So I think the figure remain the same.
-
All China Stocks: PEGGY
PE: Low
G: Moderate high
G: Net cash
Y: Yield dividend, high

-
I compare China Stock with Melamine.
If put Melamine in milk powder, the protein level is high.
So based on FIGURE, the milk is good.
But people doubted whether got Melamine
-
Based on profit FIGURE, China stock is good.
But not sure the figure can be trusted.
-
I am SORRY that I compare China Stocks with Melamine.
I should not. But I am trying to make a comparison.
China stocks FIGURE is very good, but investors doubted the figure.
Got analysts visited the factory and shops, so should provide some comfort.
-
According to an analyst, XDL briefly mentioned that will announce dividend in early January but didn't. Then supposed in early April but didn't.
Xingquan International Sports Holdings paid dividend, but very little.
If China stocks start paying good dividend, all these stocks will FLY.
-
Whether can buy China stocks depend on whether you TRUST the FIGURE.
Once got good dividend, means the figure can be trusted.
-
As long as they don't pay out good dividend, people will doubt their projected figure.

Buy Multi Sports Holdings Ltd and XiDeLang Holdings Ltd, Xingquan International Sports Holdings and K-Star if you trust their profit figure.

-

Genting Singapore Research Report Analysis PEGGY Method S$2.40

Genting Singapore (GENS G13) S$1.28
Genting Singapore fair value target price S$2.40
Genting Singapore Research Report Analysis PEGGY Method

-
Let us do my PEGGY method test:
PE: P/E ratio 14.9x, Dec 2010
G: Growth 17.4% per year. Jan 2011- Dec 2012
G: Gearing- Net gearing 26.9%, will drop to net cash in 2012
Y: Yield (Dividend). 0%
Figure I saw from the rhbresearch web
-
-
PEGGY Method's COMMENT:
PE ratio is 14.9x. Quite high
The Growth is 17.4%, high, and can compensate the high PE
Gearing- Soon will drop to net cash, ok
Dividend yield- Zero
-
-
If you buy, what do you get?
High growth of 17.4% per year. But no dividend.
Assuming you bought at S$1.30 and price went to S$2.00 after two years.
You didn't sell. Suddenly license get suspended due to change of policy
or street protest, then price drop back to S$1.30, you get nothing.
-
Another risk is the casino license which has uncertainty.
Overall is ok, if you do not mind no dividend and the risk of license.
This counter also got a lot of trading activity, good for those who know how to buy low and sell high (not me, because I don't know).
My friend who is a remisier, said Malaysians who want to buy Singapore stocks, they don't know what stock to buy, so they normally buy Wilmar and Genting Singapore. So these two stocks will be pushed up by Malaysian Ringgit.
-
For info, the above RHB target price fair value is S$2.40
-

Gold Investment- Many Advantages

Gold remain stable even in an unstable economy, crisis and war.

Gold will not go bankrupt.

Gold as an diversify asset.

Gold hedge against inflation

Gold can be traded via passbook gold investment, ETF Exchange Traded Fund, which is very convenient.

Gold can be traded via leverage, which means $1 can hold example $5 worth of gold.

Gold can be kept physical, and not subject to system crash or bank/company going bankrupt.

Gold is very liquid.

Gold has a very very long track record and history. Ancient time people also traded gold.

Gold can be easily being used for barter trade or as a medium of transaction just like currency

Gold is no one's liability. If you hold Dollar, you are creditor to US government.

Gold is solid, durable and lasting, not like currency notes

Gold is being valued by most religion as previous.

Gold is beautiful in many people eyes.

Gold remains a reserve asset at most central banks.

Thursday, August 12, 2010

Genting Singapore Made S$396.5 million

Genting Singapore Public Listed Company PLC reported second-quarter profit of S$396.5 million (US$291 million). For comparison, last years was loss.
Manage to make profit because of the new casino resort in Singapore is in first full quarter of operations.
Revenue surged to S$979.3 million in the three months to June 30 compared with S$120.1 million a year ago.
EBITDA (Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) is US$513.9 million.
Margin is 52 percent.

Singapore had actually ban casino for 40 years especially in Lee Kuan Yew's time.
But now they need it to spur economic growth.

Resorts World Sentosa opened on Valentine's Day February 14 and features Southeast Asia’s only Universal Studios theme park.

Billionaire Sheldon Adelson’s Las Vegas Sands Corp opened its rival US$5.5 billion Marina Bay Sands casino resort in Singapore’s financial district in April.

I hate gambling, because I saw many people and family have suffer due to one family member gambling problem. I just saw too many, from office to friends, to relatives, etc.
 

Stick to bigger rubber glove manufacturers- OSK

OSK said investors are recommended to stick to bigger rubber glove manufacturers like Top Glove Corp Bhd, Supermax Corp Bhd and Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd because they have the financial muscle to withstand any unexpected future setbacks.
-
Gearing
Kossan 0.17
Topglove net cash
Hartalega net cash
Supermax 0.20

-

 

Gold- How Much Was Mined in History

The Washington Monument measures 55 feet by 55 feet at its base and is 555 feet tall (17 x 17 x 170 m).
Someone estimates that if you could gather every scrap of gold that man has ever mined, it is about one-third of the Washington Monument.
-
Public Bank Gold Passbook Investment:
If you want to buy RM 125.81 per gram
If you want to sell RM 120.96 per gram.


-

 

AirAsia Again

Early this month, someone just upgraded AirAsia to RM2.10 with BUY
Then Nomura Holdings Inc analyst Jacinda Loh is SELL RM1.20
Now I saw from RHB web is BUY RM2.08
-
Gearing very high. They don't pay dividend.
Those hold from IPO until now still get nothing
But for past many years I always see reports showing BUY AIRASIA.
After so many years, time for harvest? This fruit is not for me.
-

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Gold- It Does Not Multiply

If you have a gold coin, after 1000 years you still just having a gold coin.
You you have 1 gram of gold, after 50 years, still 1 gram.
Why? Because gold does not pay interest, does not pay dividend.
So your gold will not multiply.
That is the most disadvatge of investing in gold investment.

AirAsia Cut Already? Sudah Potong?

Early this month, someone just upgraded AirAsia to RM2.10 with BUY
recommendation- refer my earlier post.
But now Nomura analyst Jacinda Loh cut or potong AirAsia Bhd, Southeast
Asia's biggest discount carrier, to "reduce" from "neutral" at Nomura
Holdings Inc.
They said which limiting capacity and rising competition may slow
passenger growth. AirAsia Fair Value Target Price is RM1.20.
-
So how? Potong AirAsia or Buy AirAsia
If you ask my view? Potong Potong Potong

-

Hartalega Research Report Analysis- PEGGY Method RM11.89

Hartalega Analysis Research Report
- PEGGY Method
Hartalega Fair Value Target Price
Hartalega Berhad(5168)- RM7.90
-
Let us do my PEGGY method test:
PE: P/E ratio 11.1x, Mar 2011
G: Growth 11.3% per year. Mar 2011- Mar 2013
G: Gearing- Net cash
Y: Yield (Dividend). Net 2.3%
Figure I saw from the rhbresearch web
-
-
POLITEMARKET'S COMMENT:
PE ratio is 11.1x. Ok only, not low.
The Growth is 11.3%, quite ok
Gearing- Net cash good.
Dividend yield- Net 2.3%- Normal
-
-
If you buy, what do you get?
Dividend yield of 2.3% only, normal and a bit low.
The PE is 11.1x, the growth of 11.3% is just enough to compensate the PE
of 11.1x.
If you buy, everything is so so.
Everything is normal.
Everything is average.
-
Do not expect to make big capital gain from Haratlega in short term.
You need to hold for long term because PEGGY is average.
You get a good management:
1)Net Cash of a glove making company
2)They are one of the MOST EFFICIENT glove maker.
-
Many brokers has downgraded glovemaker.
They said oversupply soo.
But I want to ask you question, which industry will not have oversupply?
My cikgu taught me that in long term, if undersupply they will produce
more and more shop or business will be opened.
If oversupply they will produce less and some close shop.
All business will face with oversupply or undersupply.
So, oversupply or undersupply is just temporary.
-
For info, there will be a bonus issue soon and RHB target price fair
value RM9.27 (Buy), OSK Hartalega target price fair value RM11.89.
-
-

Gold Investment- Disadvantages

There are many many disadvantages in Gold Investment.
Now I just list one of them.
Imaging 100 years ago, your great grandfather gave you a
Gold Coin. It was in year 1910 and he said,
"Give this to my yet-to-be born great-grandson in year 2010".
What are you having now?
You are just having a gold coin now, after 100 years.
Hope you can get my point.

-

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

34 Companies under PN17 Practice Note 17

According to Malaysia Bursa Malaysia, as at 10 August 2010, there are a total of 34 companies under Practice Note 17 and Amended Practice Note 17 which represent 3.53% of the total number of 964 companies listed on Malaysia Bursa Securities.
-
List of companies under the said Practice Note 17:-
1. ARK RESOURCES BHD
2. AKN TECHNOLOGY BERHAD
3. AXIS INCORPORATED BERHAD
4. BASWELL RESOURCES BERHAD
5. EVERMASTER GROUP BERHAD
6. FOUNTAIN VIEW DEVELOPMENT BERHAD
7. GULA PERAK BERHAD
8. HAISAN RESOURCES BERHAD
9. HO HUP CONSTRUCTION BERHAD
10. HOCK SIN LEONG GROUP BERHAD
11. IBRACO BERHAD
12. JPK HOLDINGS BERHAD
13. KENMARK INDUSTRIAL CO. (M) BERHAD
14. LIMAHSOON BERHAD
15. LCL CORPORATION BERHAD
16. LINEAR CORPORATION BERHAD
17. LUSTER INDUSTRIES BHD
18. MALAYSIAN MERCHANT MARINE BERHAD
19. NAM FATT CORPORATION BERHAD
20. NGIU KEE CORPORATION (M) BERHAD
21. OCI BERHAD
22. OILCORP BERHAD
23. RAMUNIA HOLDINGS BERHAD
24. RHYTHM CONSOLIDATED BERHAD
25. SATANG HOLDINGS BERHAD
26. SELOGA HOLDINGS BERHAD
27. STAMFORD COLLEGE BERHAD
28. SYARIKAT KAYU WANGI BERHAD
29. THE AYER MOLEK RUBBER COMPANY BERHAD
30. TRACOMA HOLDINGS BERHAD
31. TRANSMILE GROUP BERHAD
32. TRIPLC BHD
33. VTI VINTAGE BERHAD
34. WWE HOLDINGS BERHAD
-

Amway (M) Holdings Bhd- Look For Another Job- Analysis Research

AAmway (M) Holdings Bhd Analysis Research Report
- PEGGY Method
Amway (M) Holdings Bhd Fair Value Target Price
Amway (6888)- RM8.12
-
Let us do my PEGGY method test:
PE: P/E ratio 14.9x, Dec 2010
G: Growth 3.5% per year. 2011- 2012
G: Gearing- Net cash
Y: Yield (Dividend). Gross 6.7%
Figure I saw from the rhbresearch web
-
-
POLITEMARKET'S COMMENT:
PE ratio is 14.9x. Quite high
The Growth is 3.5% per year, quite low.
Gearing- Net cash good.
Dividend yield- Gross 6.7%- Normal Good. Net 5.025%
-
-
If you buy, what do you get?
Dividend yield of 5.025%, then growth of ONLY 3.5%.
Imaging you work in a company, they pay you normal good salary,
Got job security, but there is NO bonus and very LOW increment.
You want to continue to work in this company or look for another job?
Look for another job right?
Same here, look for another counter.
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Google Adsense- How to improve online income?

Currently my Google Adsense income is US$90.06.
Soon it will hit US$100 and I can get my first paycheck.

Monday, August 9, 2010

Mudajaya- BUY & BUY- RM7.94 Vs RM4.14 CIMB Free Analyst Research Report Analysis

CIMB said they maintain BUY on Mudajaya.
In CIMB Free Analyst Research Report Analysis
They see the management's efforts to comfort investors' concerns as
positive
They said they believe there are reasons to question the credibility,
content and motive of the poison letter.
-
Securities Commission also indicate speedy closure of investigation, so
conclusion is fast.
-
BUY recommendation with RM7.94 target price.
-
In the medium term, potential re-rating catalysts include (i) contract
awards (ii) swifter than- expected progress of the UMPP project in
India, and (iii) positive earnings surprises.
-
Their latest report said BUY
06/08/2010 report also said BUY.
Based on worst-case scenario of (i) no IPP component, and (ii) no EP
profit in construction portion, the target price cut from RM7.94 to
RM4.14.
-
Standard and Poor's also said BUY
Mudajaya Fair Value Target price is RM5.80.
So many BUY on Mudajaya Group Bhd.
-
Plan A- RM7.94
If Plan A fail, Plan B RM5.80
If Plan B fail, Plan C RM4.14
If Plan C fail, Plan D
Plan D means buy Durian.
-

QL- BUY RM5.50

Read in the news that
Citigrowp Inc initiates coverage on QL Resources Bhd.
The rating is "buy"
The analyst is Alyson Shin.
He/she said the company had strong earnings growth prospects.
Target fair Value price is RM5.50
-
I feel QL is not cheap, fairly price now.
I received the annual report on 10th anniversary, FANTASTIC.
If you buy, you are buying the GOOD MANAGEMENT.
What they are doing not just increase profit,
but as what we have learned from our teacher:
TO MAXIMISE SHAREHOLDER'S RETURN.

Every cent you invested, they try to give highest returns to you.
That is why they don't have rights issue.
They try to maximize the asset and capital.
Nobody can guarantee the futures sales or profit.
But with QL, you are having very good management team who try their best to MAXIMISE YOUR RETURNS.

-

Notion VTec Fair Value Target Price

Saw from the net.
OSK Target price for Notion Vtec is RM1.45 - SELL rating
RHB Fair Value Target price RM1.54- Underperform.
For information.
-


 

OSK Investment Challenge- Who can participate in this OSK Contest?

OSK Contest:
Investment Challenge. Who can participate in this OSK INVESTMENT CONTEST? kampus Campus Edition.
I gather the infomation from this OSK Challenge.

Malaysia citizen or permanent resident of Malaysia

Aged between 18 to 30 throughout the duration of the Contest

A college or university student in good standing currently attending a course in any private or public institute of higher education in Malaysia (student ID a MUST for verification)

As usual, not an undischarged bankrupt
Not on an extended leave and/or sabbatical
For the avoidance of doubt, “valid” shall mean a full time or part time student actively taking courses from a college/university; and “in good standing” shall mean students with a clean record, i.e. no criminal records whatsoever.

Sunday, August 8, 2010

OSK Investment Chanllenge (Campus Edition) Contest

Quick. Starting soon.
OSKIC from 16th August 2010 to 1st October 2010

Durian Prices- Musang King, D24, durian 101 durian

KL Prices. D24 selling at RM8 per KG
Musang King (raja gunung kuching), just bought it two days ago at RM16 per KG.
Someone bought 500kg mixture of durian 101 durian, udang merah, and D24 total about RM3500
Order 50kg of musang king at RM12 per KG.

OSK Investment Challenge (Campus Edition) Contest

OSK Investment Challenge (Campus Edition) Contest
I saw this OSK Investment Contest in the web.

The top 3 Grand Prizes include:
1st Prize - RM25,000
2nd Prize - RM10,000
3rd Prize - RM5,000

Weekly Prizes
Two weekly prizes to be won
2 x Acer Aspire One AOD260 Netbook (worth RM1,299 each)

The grand prize winner will be the contestant with the highest ABSOLUTE TOTAL PORTFOLIO VALUE at the conclusion of the game.
The (weekly) winner will be the contestant with the highest ABSOLUTE PORTFOLIO GAIN FOR THE WEEK.
There will be 2 winners for each week.
No one person is allowed to win a weekly prize twice.
If the same person repeatedly tops the scoreboard, the weekly prize will be given to the next hihest score person.


Extract of the Games Rule:
OSKIC from 16th August 2010 to 1st October 2010.
33 market days.
For a start you will be given a virtual capital of RM100,000.
Only only to trade all NORMAL local stocks on BURSA MALAYSIA (i.e. ONLY Number coded stocks)
Only board lot, no odd lot
Short selling not allowed.

The game will follow BURSA MALAYSIA’S official Trading Hours.
Trading will only be available from Monday to Friday, except on public holidays.
Trading Phases Time
Pre-Opening 8.30am
Opening and Continuous Trading 9.00am
Closing 12.30pm
Lunch 12.30pm to 2.00pm
Pre-Opening 2.00pm
Opening and Continuous Trading 2.30pm
Pre-Closing 4.45pm
Trading at Last 4.50pm
Closing 5.00pm


You can make changes to your order, but once your order has been matched, no changes will then be applicable.
Brokerage fee of 0.42% will be charged for every single transaction


Only corporate exercises which are significant will be accounted for in this game.
The decision to include or omit any corporate exercise will be determined by the organizers from OSKIB
Decisions of the organizing team from OSKIB will be final.

Saturday, August 7, 2010

Water Bridge in Germany

Even after you see it, it is still hard to believe !

Water Bridge in Germany .... What a feat!

Six years, 500 million euros, 918 meters long.......now this is engineering!

This is a channel-bridge over the River Elbe and joins the former East and West Germany, as part of the unification project. It is located in the city of Magdeburg , near Berlin . The photo was taken on the day of inauguration.

To those who appreciate engineering projects, here's a puzzle for you armchair engineers and physicists. Did that bridge have to be designed to withstand the additional weight of ship and barge traffic, or just the weight of the water?


Answer:
It only needs to be designed to withstand the weight of the water!

Why? A ship always displaces an amount of water that weighs the same as the ship, regardless of how heavily a ship may be loaded.

Remember your high school physics, and the fly in an enclosed bottle project? Similarly, the super sensitive scale proved that it didn't make any difference whether the fly was sitting on the bottom, walking up the side, or flying around. The bottle, air, and fly were a single unit of mass and always weighed the same.

Friday, August 6, 2010

E&O to be taken private? Eastern & Oriental BUY RM1.50

Read in newspaper that E&O may be taken private?
Why all this news being out?
Initially came out in the newspaper and everybody has been talking about
Astro being taken private. Than nothing happen. But after awhile is
real.
-
Then newspaper reported Bpuri (Bina Puri) may win new LCCT project.
Nothing happen, then wait a while, is real
Then they talk about Measat, wait awhile, is real.
-
Is E&O for real??
-
Someone told me KAF-Seagroatt & Campbell Securities recommend buy on E&O
Eastern & Oriental. Fair value target price RM1.50
-
If you buy E&O, what if the privatization is NOT real?
Plan A fail, then Plan B.
What is Plan B? Plan B is you hope KAF RM1.50 is for real.
-
I do not know much on E&O.


-

Buy AirAsia RM2.10

For me I will not buy AirAsia. This is just for information.
I read from the web that AirAsia Bhd was raised to “buy” from “sell” at Citigroup Inc.
This is because Air Asia (Southeast Asia’s biggest discount carrier) slowed plane deliveries.
This will reduce capital expenditure requirements and net gearing.
The fair value target price increased to RM2.10 from RM1.10.

Whether can buy Air Asia or not, make your know decision.
After listed for 7 years, what you get from AirAsia?
Capital gain? Dividend? You knew it.
Check out the PE, growth, gearing and yield (PEGGY) and make your own decision.
If you think is good, go ahead. My friend is holding AirAsia for 7 years and get nothing, not even a peanut.

KLCI- With or Without Dividend?

Jan KLCI 1,000
Dec KLCI 1,100
Which of the followings are true?
-
A)Hold KLCI stocks from Jan to Dec make 10% ONLY (already inclusive of
dividend)
B)Hold KLCI stocks from Jan to Dec make 10%++ (10% plus dividend)
-
Actually when you see the index up 10%, assuming you hold all KLCI
stocks, meaning capital gain + dividend in TOTAL you make 10% ONLY.
It is wrong to say to you make 10% capital gain plus few % dividend.
-
This is because the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) index everyday
has been adjusted for dividend, capital repayment, bonus, etc.
That is why when there is a big capital repayment, big dividend, bonus
issue, the KLCI index has no big impact.

E&O Eastern & Oriental BUY RM1.50

Someone told me KAF-Seagroatt & Campbell Securities recommend buy on E&O Eastern & Oriental BUY RM1.50
-
Reasons
Reducing net debt from peak of RM863m in 2006 to RM272m as at March 2010
From a net gearing of 2.5X to 0.26x currently.
-
Most landbank are strategically located in high growth areas where land is scarce.
-
Strong earnings growth
Attractive valuations
-
No comment. This is for info only.


-
 

Thursday, August 5, 2010

Notion Vtec- Bad Result ! ! ! !

Did analysts knew about the rejects weeks before? In May some analysts went to meet management and the report IS VERY POSITIVE!!!!

In end of JULY the fair value STILL ABOVE RM4.00 !!!!!
JUST FEW DAYS AGO ! ! !! !! !! !! !!


For 3Q of FY2010 revenue of RM60.8 million (2QFY2010 : RM56.7 million)
Profit after tax of RM3.1 million (2QFY2010 : RM12.2 million)
Earnings per share of 1.92 sen (2QFY2010 : 8.06 sen).


Just an Extract of the announcement. For full details please visit Bursa or Notion Vtec Bhd
The company said lower earnings due to
*Initial start up cost of new projects such as R&D, depreciation of machineries, materials and labour
*Rejections: Quality issues for one of their HDD components which resulted in rectification and compensation cost.
*Weaker USD and Euro for the quarter under review.

*OUTLOOK FOR 2H 2010

*For Q4 FY2010, revenue will be lower compared to Q3 due to lower orders from the HDD sector.
Expect minimal contribution from the 2.5" baseplate project as they tackle the problems of casting, machining and ED coating and getting the stator assembly into operation.
The higher anticipated rejects arising from this base plate project are to be finalized and the loss will be taken up in the 4th quarter. Additional cost of manpower, rent, tooling, electricity, depreciation, financial cost and others will eat into 4Q profit.


*The Board after considerable deliberation, wishes to advise that management target for FY2010 has now been revised to between RM33 million and RM35 million. It would translate to a reduced
EPS of between 21sen and 23 sen per share. Again we assume there is no significant depreciation in USD and Euro as well as the orders from customers remaining firm.


*The Board also request for patience from the shareholders as it attempts to apply corrective measures to control costs, minimise rejects and maximise its production capacity and it is envisaged that it may take up to 3 quarters to stabilise the baseplate project.

Stock Market hit by Durian

There is a saying, durian season come, pull down sarong.
Meaning durian is so nice and tasty that we are willing to take off the sarong that we are wearing, sell it and buy durian.
-
I noticed stock market is quite week this two weeks. Now is durian season,
I believe many have sold their shares in order to have money to buy durian.
-
That is why Durian is called the King of Fruits.
-

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Allianz-PA- Irredeemable Convertible Preference Shares

Allianz New Irredeemable Convertible Preference Shares will be Admitted To The Official List Of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad ("Bursa Securities"). The Listing And Quotation Of The New ICPS On The Main Market Will Be Granted With Effect From 9.00 A.M., Friday, 6 August 2010.

The Stock Short Name, Stock Number And Isin Code Of The New Icps Are "Allianz-PA", "1163PA" And "MYl1163PA000" Respectively

Questions:
Will it trade lower, on par or above Allianz shares.

How much Unisem Warrant Worth?

What is the Fair Value Target Price of Unisem Warrant

How much Unisem Warrant Worth?
For study purposes only.

Unisem RM2.25
Exercise price RM2.18
Dividend yield 2.2%
Expiry 5 years
Interest Rate (risk free) 3.5%
Volatility 30%

Based on Warrant Fair Value tool the Fair value is RM0.60

If I change Voltility to 40%= RM0.76
15%=RM0.36
20%=RM0.44

Normally that will be the guide for expected listing price of Unsiem Warrant
You will have to be sure of the volatility because the diffrence is huge.
Do you think it works in Malaysia?

Ann Joo Resources Bhd- Research Analysis Fair Value Target Price

ANNJOO (6556) RM2.55
Ann Joo Resources Bhd
Fair Value Target Price
RHB Research Analysis- RM2.84 Outperform Call
OSK Research Analysis- RM2.47- Neutral
-

CIMB Says Notion Vtec to Disappoint

Saw in the web that CIMB Research suspects NotionVtec 3QFY9/10 results could disappoint. This is due to the poorer-than-expected performance and guidance of its major customer, Western Digital.
It said it suspects that a bigger earnings dampener could emanate from higher costs for its 2.5-inch base plate manufacturing for Samsung due to high rejection rates.
-
Previously is OUTPERFORM call on Notion Vtec with fair value and target price of RM4.05. But will reveal once the quarterly financial results are out 05/08/2010.
-
-

Benefits in Gold Passbook Investment

******
The benefits of Gold Passbook investment:
Much cheaper price than goldsmith shops
As a hedge against inflation.
Another type of investment for diversification
Hassle free-No physical delivery/storage of gold, just passbook
Convenience- at any Maybank or Public Bank branch in Malaysia
Build personal gold portfolio by buying regularly
Opportunity for capital gain
Easy computation of total gold holding.
-
-
04/08/2010
*************Bank Selling Price ***** Buying Price
Public Bank 1 gram RM 124.570***RM 119.7300
Maybank Gold**** 123.41***** 118.35
-
-
Meaning if you buy 1 gram of 99.9 Gold from Public Bank, you pay RM124.57
But if you buy from Maybank, you pay RM123.41.
Previously Maybank rates are worse than Public Bank.
But I think due to competition, they have improved
I heard CIMB gold is coming.
-
-

Please click on my LABLE titled GOLD for more information on Gold.
-

Inventors of food products that changed the world

Inventors of food products that changed the world
Mayonnaise 1756 - France
Duke de Richelieu's
-
Potato chips 1853 - U.S.A
George Crum (native African/American)
-
Nestle 1866 - Germany
Henri Nestlé (1814 - 1890)
-
Coca Cola 1888 - U.S.A
John Pemberton (1831 -- 1888)
-
PEPSI 1890 - U.S.A
Caleb Davis Bradham (1867 - 1934)
-
Kellogg's 1906 - U.S.A
W. K. Kellogg (1860 - 1951)
-
Lipton 1908 - U.K
Sir Thomas Sullivan Lipton (1848 - 1931)
-
Vimto 1908 - U.K
John Noel Nichols (1883 - 1966)
-
Twinkies 1930 - U.S.A
James A. Dewar (1897-1985)
-
Ferrero Rocher 1946 - Italy
Pietro Ferrero
-
Tang 1957 - U.S.A
William A. Mitchell (1911 - 2004)
-
Noodles 1971- Taiwan
Momofuku Ando
-
Patchi Chocolate 1974 - Lebanon
Nizar Choucair

-

Benefits in Gold Passbook Investment

04/08/2010
*************Bank Selling Price ***** Buying Price
Public Bank 1 gram RM 124.570***RM 119.7300
Maybank Gold**** 123.41***** 118.35
-
-
Meaning if you buy 1 gram of 99.9 Gold from Public Bank, you pay RM124.57
But if you buy from Maybank, you pay RM123.41.
Previously Maybank rates are worse than Public Bank.
But I think due to competition, they have improved
I heard CIMB gold is coming.
-
-
The benefits of Gold Passbook investment:
Much cheaper price than goldsmith shops
As a hedge against inflation.
Another type of investment for diversification
Hassle free-No physical delivery/storage of gold, just passbook
Convenience- at any Maybank or Public Bank branch in Malaysia
Build personal gold portfolio by buying regularly
Opportunity for capital gain
Easy computation of total gold holding.
-
Please click on my LABLE titled GOLD for more information on Gold.
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Advantage and Disadvantage of Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)

Pro and Con of Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)
Advantage and Disadvantage of Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)
Dollar Cost Averaging is investing a FIXED AMOUNT of money (eg US$1,000)
at a FIXED INTERVAL (eg every month)

Advantages:
1.Buying price is lower than simple averaging
US$1.00
US$0.90
US$2.00
Simple average is US$1.30

Invest US$10,000 per investment
US$1.00 buy 10,000 shares
US$0.90 buy 11,111 shares
US$2.00 buy 5,000 shares
US$30,000 divided by 26,111 shares = US$1.149


2.Reduce the risk of Lump Sum investment
Assuming you invest all your money at US$10.00 and it drop sharply,
You suffer big losses.

3.Provide a systematic Budget Planning
US$10.00 buy
US$9.00 buy again
US$8.00 buy again
US$7.20 buy again
US$6.50 buy again
US$6.00 buy again
US$5.00 no more money to buy
US$4.00 no more money to buy
Panic- sell all at US$4.00
All within a month without DCA

If you have US$24,000, to invest US$1,000 per month, then can last 24
months, no need to panic.


4.Time Factor
US$20.00 buy
US$15.00 buy again
US$9.00 buy again
US$7.20 buy again
US$5.50 buy again
US$3.00 buy again
All within a month if without DCA.
Due to fraud, the stock never trade above US$3.00 again.
From US$20.00, you thought at US$9.00 is very cheap.
But no one know the bottom.
If you buy every month, after every month, things become clearer and
clearer.
You know why the stock down so much and can estimate the bottom.


5.Avoid missing uptrend stock
January US$1.00
February US$1.20-you refuse to buy because already up US$0.20
March US$1.40-you refuse to buy because already up US$0.20
April US$3.00-you refuse to buy because already up so much
Without DCA, you refuse to buy because market already up.
So you miss the opportunity.
With DCA, you would have bought it every month and make gain.


6.No Emotion
Many of us are too emotion on stock market investment
Always not buying when the price are low
With DCA, just buy every month and no emotion to effect decision


7.Better Utilization/Return of Capital
Assuming your strategy is to buy when price below US$1.00
Jan US$1.00 buy
Feb US$0.90 buy again
Mar US1.05 not buying
Apr US1.20 not buying
May-Nov all above US$1.00- not buying
Dec US$2.00
After February, you didn't buy. So the cash sitting and earning very low
interest.
With DCA, you would have been keep buying and earn return.


Disadvantage of Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)
1.Lower Return
If you invest lump sum, and the stock goes up, you make a lot.
But if use DCA, you only buy very little


2.More Ups than Downs
There is more Ups than Downs. Market is steadily trading higher and
higher.
So, lump sum will have better return than DCA

3.Higher Transaction Cost
Because you buy in smaller amount using DCA, the fees, charges,
brokerage will be higher


4.Miss Opportunity
Using DCA, because you already invested in this month, when the prices
down again within a month, you were unable to invest. The price may then
rebound and you miss it. Also there may be opportunity of buying other
counter, but your plan is fixed amount every month, so you miss it.


Conclusion:
Invest in Lump Sum will have higher return
But someone earn high, someone suffer losses. You willing to take the
risk?
You have US$100,000
Lump Sum
Head you win US$200,000
Tail you lose ALL your US$100,000

Or
use DCA
Head you make US$30,000
Tail you make US$30,000

Mathematically or theory sure choose Lump Sum, but can we take the risk?

Whether to use Lump Sum or DCA is whether we are willing to take the
risk.

My own conclusion:
If you are not an expert, just like me, please use DCA.
But start with a small Lump Sum, then continue with DCA.
But don't be rigid. US$1,000 per month, if you saw great opportunity,
this month can be US$2,000. If market not so good, maybe US$500.
Use a bit of flexibility BUT never divert too greatly from DCA.


Hope you make good profit.

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Why a Blog is Suspended- a Bursa Malaysia Stock Market Blog

I saw a Bursa Malaysia Stock Market Blog was suspended. The latest post was just few hours ago. Wondering why it was suspended.

AirAsia celebrates with contest on YouTube

AirAsia to celebrate its 100 millionth guest flown.
Contest, called "The Real People, Real Stories: COMMENT & WIN",
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Open to the public and participation is simple. The participants need to comment on any video in any of the five categories listed in AirAsia's YouTube page -- www.youtube.com/AirAsia.
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The top 100 comments could get RM5,000 worth of AirAsia e-gift vouchers.
The contest will run from August 4-September 5, 2010.
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HDD Makers to Suffer- JCY, EngTek, Notion Vtec

I heard Hong Leong reports a Possible HDD oversupply situation in 2011
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Reports states the reasons:
Early warning of consumer electronic demand weakness.
Due to weaker sales in China and uncertainty in Europe and US.
Hard Disc makers will suffer.
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Strong PC shipments in 2Q 2010 but HDD earnings disappoint due to higher costs and pricing competition.
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Western Digital and Seagate warns of oversupply, pricing competition, increasing costs and lower shipment growth.
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Malaysian HDD component manufacturers are at the lower end of the value chain. So they are susceptible to volume and margin pressure from their customers.
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Malaysian HDD component manufacturers have a short-term order visibility and may face earnings disappointment if an oversupply situation materializes in 2H 2010 to 2011.
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Hong Leong said they see a 6-month window for the HDD industry to address pricing and production expectations or for consumer demand to pick-up.
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The risk to pure HDD component manufacturers (JCY) is expected to be higher than for semi-diversified component manufacturers (Eng Tek) and diversified component manufacturers (Notion VTEC).
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AMMB Holdings (AMMB) propose Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP)

AMMB Holdings (AMMB) is proposing a Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) as
part of its capital management programme that would provide shareholders the
option to reinvest their dividend entitlements into new AMMB shares.
The plan is similar to the DRP scheme implemented by Maybank.

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SIG Gases Bhd Target Price RM0.62- IPO Analyst Research

SIG Gases Bhd (SIGG)/ (SIGGB)
An established Industrial Gas producer.
Analyst Research IPO Fair Value Target Price
Saw from the web that OSK target price is RM0.62
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Berjaya Corp Fair Value Target Price RM2.15 (BJCorp) Am Research

Saw from web. AmResearch Sdn Bhd has affirmed its trading "buy" on Berjaya Corp Bhd (BCorp) (3395). Stock Price RM1.03
AmResearch raised the stock's fair value from RM1.80 per share to RM2.15 per share - The fair value target price is based on 30 per cent discount to the revised fully diluted net asset value of RM3.08 per share.
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BCorp is acquiring a 70 per cent stake in Ascot Sports Sdn Bhd from its chairman Tan Sri Vincent Tan for RM525 million cash- a low acquisition price-to-earnings ratio of just six times.
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Vincent Tan owns about 48 per cent of Bcorp
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Source: Business Times
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Notion Vtec- SELL SELL SELL fair value target price down

30/07/2010 saw from the web that RHB research analysis report that fair value target price for Notion Vtec was RM4.05. Outperform recommendation.
Price was RM2.62.
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03/08/2010 Tuesday, saw RHB fair value target price RM2.07. Underperform recommendation.
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Just one two days different (excluding weekend), the fair value target price drop so much. Also change from outperform to UNDERperform.
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What happened?
Market uncertainties.
I have friends prefer consumers stocks, more predictable, less return but also less risky.
They said IT stocks are cyclical, few years good, few years bad, few years good gain, then yew years bad again.
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Buy BURSA RM15.00 Fair Value

Saw from the web that SnP recommendation on Bursa (1818) RM13.50 with a target price fair value of RM15.00. The report is dated 12/10/2007.

28/07/2006 STRONG SELL Target RM5.25
17/01/2007 Sell Target RM9.00
12/10/2007 BUY TARGET RM15 BUY BUY BUY
04/02/2008 Hold Target RM14
18/07/2008 Hold Target RM6.60
28/10/2008 SELL Target RM4.50
05/06/2009 Hold Target RM8.00
21/07/2009 Buy Target RM8.50

If you have Bursa in 2006, S&P STRONGLY ask you to sell.
So, you sold at RM5.00
Then the price went above RM10.00 and they ask you to buy.
So you bought at RM10.00 (miss profit RM5.00)
They ask you to hold on and then in Oct 2008, they ask you to sell.
So you sold at RM5.00 (loss RM5.00)
In July 2009, they ask you to buy, and you bought at RM7.50 (miss
RM2.50)

If you follow SnP, Bursa went up so high but you got no profit and made huge losses.

POLITE MARKET'S COMMENTS:
What went wrong?
1) Wrong prediction by SnP
Nobody can really 100% predict the market, so we CANNOT blame SnP. I am a follower of SnP now.

2) SnP follows regional Stock Exchange 30 times PE ratio to come up with RM15.00 fair value in July 2007.

Let us use PEGGY and see what happen.
PEGGY on 12/07/2007 (BURSA at RM13.50)
PE PE was 27.8 times
G Growth SnP forecast was 5% till 2008
G Gearing nil, net cash.
Y Yield (Dividend) 5.8%, but most are special dividend, cannot sustain

PE is sky high with moderate growth.
Only thing is dividend 5.8%, but also cannot sustain because old profit pay as special dividend.

If you use PEGGY, you would have avoided BURSA in July 2007.

SnP follows regional Stock Exchange 30 times PE ratio, NOTHING wrong.
But they have their own purpose, maybe to cater for fund manager.
But we are RETAIL INDIVIDUAL. PEGGY is more useful.

3) During market crash, should buy and not sell. You think Bursa will go bankrupt?

Conclusion:
We should still read research to get the facts and figure. But as individual, we should use Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) and PEGGY to filter, more useful.

Monday, August 2, 2010

Why technology stocks down?

Why technology stocks down?
Can refer to my post http://politemarket.blogspot.com/2010/08/technology-stocks-down.html
I think is related to iPod. Not sure.

Why Unisem down?
Why Notion down?
Why Eng Teknologi down?
Why JCY down?
Why Notion Vtec down?

Nuffnang Income is to my surprise

Nuffnang Income is to my suprise. The first four months of my Google Adsense income is US$55.60.
But the first four months of my Nuffnang income is just RM5.56.
Now after 5 months, it is approching US$80. Hope I can get paid soon when hit US$100.

Technology Stocks Down

Most technology stocks are down.
According to my friend, he said most probably is due to Hard Disc makers may suffer as a result in changing consumer preference.
Consumers in US are buying computers that are using different type of hard disc. Instead of using a chip whose roots lie in desktop computing where Intel has its stronghold, Apple used one from the cellphone world.
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Info:
Apple sold 3.3 million iPads last quarter. That's one of the best starts ever for a consumer electronic device.
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While Apple and its suppliers are celebrating, many other companies will suffer.
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PC makers and sellers: It stands to reason that if companies and consumers buy iPads, they will cut back on competing electronic items due to limited budgets. This effect probably hasn't fully kicked in.
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The number of lower-priced netbooks fell 19 percent in June compared to last year according to NPD. HP, Dell and Acer earn little money on selling these devices. But if the iPad starts to cannibalize higher-margin items, selling PCs could become a recipe for losses.
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Dell, for example, eked out less than a 3 percent net margin last year. Microsoft: It doesn't take the IQ of Bill Gates to figure out that reduced sales of computers running Windows would hurt Microsoft. True, the company's most recent quarterly figures were robust, as users upgraded to Windows 7. But if PC cannibalization occurs, it won't be pretty. The company's Windows division has astonishingly high margins -- it accounts for roughly a quarter of sales but half of operating profit.
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A small revenue decline would disproportionately hit earnings. Intel and AMD: Likewise, a shift from PCs to the iPad would hurt the two big semiconductor makers. Instead of using a chip whose roots lie in desktop computing where Intel has its stronghold, Apple used one from the cellphone world. Intel may catch up in designing low-power chips, but it could lose its quasi-monopoly style margins if it doesn't.
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AMD, which chases after Intel yet never catches up, would take a harsher hit. Software security companies: Apple's devices are generally perceived as having fewer security holes than Windows. While most PC users install antiviral programs, many Apple users don't bother. So an iPad shift would hit software sales at security companies such as McAfee and Symantec. True, the more popular Apple's systems become the more effort hackers will make to crack them. But overall, antiviral vendors look like potential losers.
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Hard disk drive makers: Apple was one of the first computer makers to eschew floppy disk drives. Likewise, the iPad could lead the charge away from hard disk drives. The device employs NAND flash memory, which is smaller and uses less power than the hard drives commonly used in laptops and desktops. If the iPad cannibalizes these markets, companies like Western Digital and Seagate would suffer.


Source: economictimes.indiatimes

AMMB Analysis Research Report Fair Value Target Price- PEGGY Method

AMMB Holdings Bhd (1015)- RM5.15
Analysis Research Report Fair Value Target Price- PEGGY Method
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Let us do my PEGGY method test:
PE: P/E ratio 12.9x, Mar 2011
G: Growth 11.5% per year. mar 2011- mar 2013
G: Gearing- n/a for bank
Y: Yield (Dividend). Net 2.7%
Figure I saw from the rhbresearch web. RHB fair value RM6.60
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POLITEMARKET'S COMMENT:
PE ratio is 12.9x. average
The Growth is 11.5% per year, ok, slightly lower than PE but ok.
Gearing- not applicable for bank.
Dividend yield-2.7% OK.
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Everything is average. Growth is 11.5%, ok. What you can gain is, if
profit grow 11.5%, hopefully share price also grow 11.5%, also with 2.7%
dividend.
If you buy, you get 2.7% + 11.5%. per year. Ok.
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Buy if:---
You are ok with the return 2.7% + 11.5% per year.
You disagree with the above growth, you think is much higher.
You think they will pay more dividend
You think bank is more stable, good for very long term
You think banking stock is not affected by recession or inflation
You think banking stock should not value based on PEGGY, should value
based on book-value X ???. For info the book value is RM3.56
You saw in other research that the figure is much better
You think the banks merger is coming and the prices will shot up.
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Advantage of TRADING in AMMB (non-PEGGY Method)
High volume and volatile, good for trading (buy low and sell high)
A banking stock that is solid and with long track record.

Why PEGGY Method if we have Analyst?

PEGGY method depends on someone else's analysis of the market situation. In that case, why need PEGGY? Maybe just follow the analyst's buy/sell call, no need to even do the PEGGY.

Analysts recommended so many counters, which one to buy? Good stocks, average stocks also recommended Buy.
Some analysts ask to SELL SIME DARBY, some ask to BUY SIME DARBY, which one to follow?
So, use PEGGY to select the better stocks.

Analysts have their own agendas, use regional PE, recommended buy even if PE ratio is sky high.
By using PEGGY, you can avoid this.

Analyst prefer large cap stock, because to cater for Fund Manager.
We are not fund manager.

Axiata Group Bhd- Analysis Research Report Fair Value Target Price- PEGGY Method

Axiata Group Bhd (6888)- RM4.26
Analysis Research Report Fair Value Target Price- PEGGY Method
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Let us do my PEGGY method test:
PE: P/E ratio 17.2x, Dec 2010
G: Growth 8.8% per year. 2011- 2012
G: Gearing- 0.42
Y: Yield (Dividend). Nil
Figure I saw from the rhbresearch web
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POLITEMARKET'S COMMENT:
PE ratio is 17.2x. High
The Growth is 8.8% per year, so so, BUT lower than PE
Gearing- 0.42, I think should be ok
Dividend yield- NIL
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-
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PE is high but growth is ok only. Dividend is kosong.
I will NOT buy.
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Buy if:---
You disagree with the above growth, you think is much higher
You think they will start paying dividend
You think they will buy more regional telco at cheap price
You saw in other research that the figure is much better
You thinks their overseas subsidiaries have very high growth market
You think the telco competition is not an issue.
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Advantage of TRADING in Axiata (non-PEGGY Method)
High volume and volatile, good for trading (buy low and sell high)

Eng Teknologi Holdings Bhd- Analysis Research Report Fair Value Target Price

Someone ask me about Eng Teknologi
Eng Technology Holdings Bhd (8826)- RM2.23
Analysis Research Report Fair Value Target Price- PEGGY Method

Let us do my PEGGY method test:
PE: P/E ratio 4.2, Dec2010
G: Growth 15.7% per year. 2011-2012
G: Gearing- 0.04 Dec2009
Y: Yield (Dividend). 5.6%


POLITEMARKET'S COMMENT:
I heard Hong Leong is using 2011 figure, but I'm using 2010 figure, nearer and more certain.
PE ratio is 4.2, good.
The Growth is 15.7% per year from 2011 to 2012. Good.
Gearing-ok, provided didnt change much from 2009, because I can't find the latest figure.
Dividend yield-5.6%, good.

If you buy this counter, you get 5.6% dividend per year, with a potential growth of 15.7%.
PE is so low, with a potential of trading higher PE due to more volume, analyst coverage, etc.
5.6% + 15.7% + PE Bonus= Good and Good

Conclusion: GOOD

Buy if:
You are ok that EngTek is depending on a major customer (Western Digital more than 50%, Seagate 14%).
You are ok that Technology stocks are cyclical/season stock. Few years good, few years bad.
You trust the above figure.
No need to argue about double dip recession; overcapacity and inventory, strengthening RM; volatility in raw material prices. Analyst has already factored in all this, and they have made a forecast. We are not an expert to argue the figure.
The 7 July report is not out-dated. Past few weeks and next few weeks are reporting season, not sure anything reported in US that may have changed the figure. JCY has down sharly. Just give a call or email the analyst.

Based on PEGGY Method on the figure, this is a good buy.
PEGGY Method is 100% accurate.
If Eng lost customer or report lower growth/profit, it is not PEGGY Method fail, it is analyst forecast wrongly. We should not blame analyst, nobody know the future.

Hoong Fa Metal Trading Sdn Bhd

Hoong Fa Metal Trading Sdn Bhd
The company has moved to:
New Address
No. 45, Jalan Kampung Pandan
55100 Kuala Lumpur
Telephone: 603-92822632, 03-92815072, 03-92815075
Fax: 03-92849629

Supply:
Pipe: G.I, Carbon Steel, Stainless Steel, Copper, PVC, UPVC
Fittings: G.I, Carbon Steel, Stainless Steel, Copper, PVC, UPVC
Valve: 'KITZ', 'Italy', etc
Pressure Gauge
Angle Iron, Flat Bar, etc
Building Maintenance Supply
Engineering Supply
General Hardware, etc.


Old Address:
No. 63, 2 1/2 Miles,
Jalan Sungai Besi
57100 Kuala Lumpur
Old contact Tel no: 03-92218254, 03-92218393, 03-92219473
A/C Dept: 03-92219442

Sunday, August 1, 2010

Funny Handball- LOL

video
High profile handballs are trendy right now. Starting with Thierry Henry's against Ireland last year and peaking with Luis Suarez's goal-saving effort against Ghana in the World Cup, both sparked outrage and debate, but both also helped their respective teams. South Korea defender Jeong Yeonga's handball in their 5-1 semifinal loss to their German hosts in the Women's U-20 World Cup did not help her team, though. Granted, it didn't really hurt her team, either, since they were already losing 4-1 at the time. But still...it was weird.

Source: Yahoo Sport

Use OLD NEWSPAPER to buy shares

Use OLD NEWSPAPER to buy shares
We are not insider. We don't work in listed company, merchant bank, Bursa, SC, newspaper/ media company. We don't know the news before it publish. When we read from newspaper, we wanted to buy immediately, but too late, the prices already jump up.

Some counters the price may drop back.
Example, ABC counter price jump because newspaper said they may be subject to a take over. So we miss it. After a while, due to bad market sentiment the price drop, but we have forgotten on the news. Then the real news announce again.
What we can do is, after we miss the chance of buying, keep a record of the news, and later check again.

Sometimes, after the announcement, the price didn't jump because it is for future project or maybe at that time the market sentiment is very bad. So, may not be the right time to buy first. We keep the news, check it again in the future

Example:
MBSB rumor to be taken private or get a full pledged bank license.
TSH has many landbank, announced in late 2007 that within three to six years, many of its estate will be maturing
Astro may be taken private
Haio venturing into China
Keck Seng has huge landbank and market value net asset RM17.00 per share and may have to revalue them if starting to develop.
Etc etc

Followers

Disclaimer

Disclaimer Clause
The information contained in this blog is my personal diary and has been prepared solely for myself. Without any previous reading material or discussion, by just reading my blog contents, reader may misunderstand the contents.
All the contents I am talking to myself and most contents are hypothetical or imaginary.
This blog has been compiled in good faith, with no intention to cause hurt, loss, or any trouble. No representation is (either express or implied) as to the completeness or accuracy of the information it contains.
This blog also is not an advice, recommendation or an invitation to buy or sell or invest in anything, eg shares, futures, derivatives, gold, etc. Consult your investment adviser before making any decisions.
The copyright of the material contained in my blog remains solely with me. You shall not copy, reproduce and / or distribute this information without my permission.