A PEGGY Method of Stock Market Share Fair Value Target Price IPO Dividend

China Stationery Limited and Sentoria Group Berhad IPO

2012-01-31T16:39:00.000+08:00

China Stationery Limited IPO price RM0.95
CSL IPO Closing Date 10/02/2012
Malaysian Public 60mil shares

Sentoria Group Berhad IPO price RM0.85 Retail Price. Private placement price RM0.87
SNTORIA IPO Closing Date 10/02/2012
20mil Malaysia Public
10mil for eligible directors, employees, business associates
30mil private placement

Sentoria Group Bhd, is the developer and operator of the Bukit Gambang Resort City (BGRC) in Kuantan, Pahang.

Will post more when I get the info.

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How Remisiers Should Answer Their Clients

2012-01-30T07:36:00.001+08:00

Before I tell you how remisiers should answer their clients, I will first relate and tell you about a Hong Kong TV comedy show. In an episode, there was a stupid actor who doesn't know how to answer questions given by reporters. Therefore, his manager taught him a easy way, that is to give few standard answers.

1) I don't know
2) Hahaha.... you are right
3) I cannot reveal
4) Let me consider it

Initially the actor managed to answer all the questions by using the standard answer. But subsequently, there were mismatch in the questions and answers.

As a remisier, sometime clients ask many difficult questions. Now, let us see whether we can use the standard answers.

Q1. How's the market
Q2. They say somebody going to push up Benalec share price, is that true?
Q3. Will MAS and AIRASIA merge?
Q4. What stock to buy
Q5. My brother told me to buy PMetal
Q6. Got tips or not?

If you are smart, then you can match the questions and answers
Q1. How's the market (I don't know)
Q2. They say somebody going to push up Benalec share price, is that true? (I cannot reveal)
Q3. Will MAS and AIRASIA merge? (Hahaha.... you are right)
Q4. What stock to buy (I don't know)
Q5.  My brother told me to buy PMetal. (Let me consider it)
Q6. Got tips or not? (I don't know)

But if like the stupid actor, then there will be some mismatch in the questions and answers:
Q1. How's the market   (Hahaha.... you are right)
Q2. They say somebody going to push up Benalec share price, is that true? (Let me consider it)
Q3. Will MAS and AIRASIA merge? (I cannot reveal)
Q4. What stock to buy? (Hahaha.... you are right)
Q5.  My brother told me to buy PMetal. (I don't know)
Q6. Got tips or not? (I cannot reveal)

.

Boustead Stock Analysis

2012-01-27T19:12:00.000+08:00

Boustead share price RM5.42.

Using PEGGY Method:

Boustead PE ratio is about 11x and with modest growth rate of 7%.
Gearing level is manageable and Boustead dividend yield is about 7% (with 70% formal dividend payout rate)

Some brokers recommended to buy. HwangDBS give Bosutead fair value RM6.60.

Some said growth not high enough, but some said this stock is steady due to diversification of industries. Some prefer Bstead stock because of dividend play. Some said this is bluechip some said this is not. Some said the management has turnaround the company, but some said the previous track record nothing spectacular.

Up to individuals.

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Why TMS warrant is so cheap? Or is it a trap?

2012-01-27T10:10:00.000+08:00

TMS warrant TMS-WA is RM0.115 or RM0.12

TMS share price is RM0.40

TMS warrant exercise price is RM0.10 and TMS warrant expiry date or maturity date is 16 January 2017.

If we use RM0.40 minus RM0.10 = RM0.30.

But why TMS warrant stock price is just RM0.12? Is it because it is too cheap and we can buy? Or is it because the conversion period has not started? Or is it because the TMS stock price going to drop sharply?

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Gefung stock - a new Sunrise Bhd Stock?

2012-01-26T21:31:00.001+08:00

Is there a value in Gefung share? Or will there be a selling down in Gefung shares due to listing of the rights issue.

Gefung rights issue:
The listing date of the rights issue shares is 27 January 2011.
Renounceable rights issue of up to 193,500,002 new ordinary shares of Gefung shares together with up to 38,700,000 free detachable new Gefung warrants on the basis of five (5) Rights Shares together with one (1) Warrant for every four (4) ordinary shares of Gefung held as at 5.00 p.m. on 27 December 2011.

Gefung Rights issue price is RM0.15
After the ex date 22 December 2011, Gefung share price was about RM0.15.
Right issue price and the share price is about the same and with just free one warrant for every four Gefung shares that your subscribe, not many people want to subscribe.

Only 53.40% subscribed / acceptance, and 2.98% applied for excess.Total is only 56.38%

My question is, who want the Gefung shares at RM0.15? Why the company didn’t set the Rights issue price lower?
Do the directors or major shareholders see value is Gefung stock that we are unable to see?

Based on Gefung Annual report 2010, the managing director is Dato’Allan Lim Kim. He was the major shareholder of Sunrise Bhd (7.24%, Sunrise annual report2010). Now Sunrise stock has been delisted (due to takeover by UEMLand stock). Can Dato' Lim turn Gefung into another Sunrise Bhd?

Look at Innoprise Plantation Bhd. INNOPRISE PLANTATIONS BERHAD rights issue in April 2010. Price was about RM1.00 and the rights issue price was RM1.00.
The acceptance was only 68.73%.
But what is Innoprise Planation stock share price now? Inno share price now is RM1.44 and some brokers recommended to buy with much higher fair value.

Information:
What is Gefung Warrant exercise price?
Gefung warrants total issue Size in Unit: 21,819,950
Gefung warrant Maturity Date is 19 January 2017 and the Gefung warrant fair value target price is determined by Gefung shares price, Gefunng Exercise price or conversion price of RM0.150.

Can Gefung Holdings Berhad be another Innoprise or Sunrise stock? Or will it trade lower than RM0.15?

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Gefung stock analysis

2012-01-26T15:17:00.000+08:00

Gefung share price is RM0.16.

Content:
Major Shareholder of ex Sunrise Bhd stock (merged with Uemland stock)
Rights issue plus free Genfung warrant.

The analysis will be posted later.

52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market - Part 33/52 - Private Placement

2012-01-24T11:17:00.000+08:00

Private Placement

You can make money in the stock market through private placement. Get you private placement shares which are normally lower than the current share prices and sell it to make profit.

What is private placement? Private placement is non-IPO non-public offering issuing of shares to identified or selected group of investors. The investors are normally strategic investors such as suppliers, customers, institutional investors such as banks, insurance companies, unit trust and pension funds.

Merchant bank or investment bank will assist the company in the private placement, normally the total number of private placement shares is not more than 10% of the total company issued shares. The issue price is normally cheaper than the current share price.

Malaysia

, sometimes the private placement is being used to increase the Bumiputra percentage holdings in the company, The shares are then offered to selected Bumiputra and I think it may involve MITI.

Private placement may also offer to individuals that are not strategic to the company. It can be anybody as long as you have a bit of connection.

From my observation, after the completion of the private placement, if I take a look at the annual report, there will be few individual names appear as substantial shareholders, in which I think they have no benefits to the company. I always feel that after they received the shares, many may sell it to take profit. Those who have not sold, and still holding it, I think they will then sell if they need the money. Their cost is low, therefore some prefer to sit on paper gain and no urgency to sell.

My question is this, how the company select who will be the purchaser of the private placement shares? And what benefits do these people bring to the company? If you look at the defination from a text book, it normally state strategic investors.

If the purchasers are suppliers or customers, then it will be good because it serve as strategic investors. If it is EPF or large unit trust, then is good as they can be a watchdog to the stocks.

If you are rich, why don’t you call up your investment bank friends and see how the shares is being allocated.

RISKS, LIMITATIONS OR DIFFICULTIES:

You may need connection in order for the shares to be allocated to you. I also want to know how, and I also want to be allotted. The quantity is normally in big block and you may need to have substantial money.

OPINION:

My opinion is that all these private placement should be allocated to strategic investors and not ordinary individuals.

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52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market - Part 32/52 - Last Days of Call Warrants

2012-01-23T08:41:00.001+08:00

Last Days of Call Warrants

How to can make money from share market by trading Call Warrants on last few days before expiring?

Malaysia

stock market, most of the times call warrants are trading at a premium. But when it is nearing to expiry date, it tends to trade at par (no discount or no premium). Due to price fluctuation, sometimes you may be able to buy at discount. You must be patience and que.

What is your risk then?

Assuming you buy at $0.10, but the warrant is worth $0.102 and the cash settlement will be $0.102

Mother share is RM5.00

If mother share does not move up or not, you then make 2%.

If the mother share price drop, then the cash settlement may be lower.

If settle at RM0.04, then your loss will be 60%.

If the mother share drop sharply, the maximum loss is RM0.10.

But if the mother share up sharply, then sky will be the limit for your gain. Can be 100%, 200% or more.

Share price may down or up. So we take the average, which is unchanged. If share price unchanged, then you have made the money already.

Call Warrants settlement price "normally" uses volume weighted average, and then average of 5 days. You may buy the call warrant if it got discount on the second or third day. Because it uses average, the last two/three days price fluctuation may not have a big impact on the call warrants settlement price. Therefore, the discount that you get, on a long run, probably is the average that you will get. Although the % is low, but if you can make 3% within a month, then one year will be about 36%.

If you just want to make the discount, without wanting a higher risk/return, then you need to choose call warrants that is with big conversion ratio. Example 10 call warrant to one mother share, means mother share move $0.10, call warrants settlement price move $0.01.

Bigger conversion will be 20 call warrants to one mother share, means mother share move $0.20, then call warrants settlement price move $0.01. This will be less risky.

I first notice about this when it was in 2007.

I cannot recall the exactly the situation and not sure about the year too, but roughly this is what had happened.

There was someone who bought Digi call warrant when it was near expiry, about $0.015. Then next few days, Digi price was up steadily on a low volume. The settlement was many cents higher than the purchase price. He made few hundred percent.

Another scenario was, someone made about 40% from Tenaga call warrant and 3% Maxis call warrant in March 2011.

Some may say 3% is very little. But if 3% in a month, and you repeat it for 6 months, then will be 18%.

RISKS, LIMITATIONS OR DIFFICULTIES:

You need to monitor the expiry and conversion. Need a bit of hard work.

To get a better price of discount, probably you need to que.

If you compute wrongly, then may end up with losses.

You can only trade occasionally because not many call warrant expiry in a month.

OPINION:

Need hard work and computation.

If you are hard working or you have a system to compute real time or up-to-date call warrant settlement price, then you may consider it.

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52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market - Part 31/52 - Monitor Direct Business Transaction (DBT)

2012-01-19T13:44:00.000+08:00

Monitor Direct Business Transaction (DBT)

How you can make profit by monitoring Direct Business Transaction (DBT). I am not sure what trading system you are using, but the BFE (broker front end) that the remisiers are using, and the computer terminal (MASA) provided by most brokers able to display Direct Business Transaction (DBT) volume and price. When the deal is done, it will be shown in the BFE and MASA.

How it works?

When you see a BIG BLOCK (few percent of the company total shares) of shares transacted at a MUCH HIGHER price, the chances are the share price will then move up.

Assuming ABC share price is $5.00.

Total number of ABC shares is 100 million.

If there is a DBT transaction at $6.50 for 15 million shares, then chances ABC share will move up from $5.00.

Why?

1) So many shares transacted at $6.50, meaning this company is probably being valued close to $6.50 and is cheap at current market price of $5.00.

2) A big block of share transacted, maybe the buyer may then make general offer to the other shareholders.

3) The above example is 15 million shares, which is 15% of the company paid up capital. If the buyer is already holding 19 million shares (19%), with the additional 15% purchase, the buyer will have to make MANADATORY General Offer to the public at $6.50. This mandatory is required by the law, the threshold I’m can’t remember, but I think is 33%. If buyer buy more than 33%, the buyer is required by the law to make the offer to all the other shareholders.

4)Even there is no general offer, this kind of DBT will normally create buying interest for the stock.

There are occasions where the DBT is a big block of shares but the price transacted is less than the current market price, the share price also went up. This happened in 2010 when QL bought one big block of Layhong shares at price below than the market, but LayHong shares price went up. Why? This is because QL is a very good company and investors feel that if QL holding so many Lay Hong share, QL will help Lay Hong to improve the profit substantially.

In 2010, when EPF sold some of RHBCAP shares to many buyers through DBT at market price, RHBCAP share price also when up. This is because investors prefer higher free float, that is more shares are being held by minority rather than major shareholders (EPF).

By the way, you must ignore those DBT with small quantity even the price is very high. Why? Normally these DBT is done by retail clients that were trying to avoid contract loss or want to roll their position.

Example they bought the shares at $10.00, and on T+4 the share price is $8.80. These people refuse to cut loss and therefore they do a DBT, sell to themselves using another person name (eg wife, brother, etc) at $10.00. Wise or unwise?

RISKS, LIMITATIONS OR DIFFICULTIES:

You need to monitor the DBT frequently, where got time? If you are late, when you know it, the price already went up.

The DBT need to be big quantity and very high price, this seldom happened.

Although BFE and MASA display DBT volume and price, they do not display the buyer and the seller. Quite difficult to make decision if we don’t know the buyer. In the above example, if the buyer already hold 19% of the shares, they have to make mandatory general offer. But you don’t know who is the buyer and you are just hoping.

The price may not move up after the DBT especially during bad market sentiment.

Sometimes the price may drop after the DBT? Why? Because the seller is the owner that have brought success to the company and the buyer is an unknown person or with bad track record.

Sometimes is just changing hands between two related companies or parties.

Sometimes I think major shareholder try to make big DBT at higher price to cheat people into buying the shares. Do you think this will happen?

Many people may already know about the DBT before it was done. When you notice the DBT, it is already too late. I remember there was once a stock (can’t remember the name), the share price went up suddenly, I was curious why. Then two days later there was a big DBT done at very high price.

OPINION:

You must remember the quantity must be big, at least few percent of the company total shares and the price must be much higher than the market price. Based on what I have observed, the share price will then move up most of the times. This is just my observation, you will have to consult your remisier or dealer.

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Formula: To Buy or Not to buy a stock

2012-01-18T07:11:00.050+08:00

Many people give me a formula on whether to buy a stock or not. I think the formula is too simple and we may miss out on many tips/ recommendation.

We all use "estimate" and "average" in the formula.

The common formula is:
(Probability of Gain X Percentage of Gain) + (Probability of Loss X Percentage of Loss)

Example 3 months:
Chances of the tips is real is 70%, and will make 20% gain.
Chances of the tips is false 30% (meaning 100% - 70%), and the loss estimated 50%

(70% X 20%) + (30% X -50%) = negative 1%.

Because it is negative (or lower than your required return), you should not buy.
If it is above your required return %, then you can consider.

But the formula is too simple.

What if in medium term or long term, the stock can recover and make 40% in two years, why not?

Conclusion:
Do not buy if the result shows % less than your required return and the stock also cannot recover in medium term.

May consider to buy if:
1)Got tips/recommendation
2)If anything goes wrong the stock still can recover and make good % gain in medium term.
3)You are willing and able to hold for medium term

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What is PEGGY Method is stock market
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52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market - Part 30/52 - One bid profit

2012-01-16T07:22:00.000+08:00

For lower price counter, one bid higher can make profit.

Example, ABC stock is trading at $0.06 and $0.065. You que to buy at $0.06, if matched, immediate sell it at one bid higher, that is $0.065. If manage to sell at $0.065, your profit is 8.3%. After minus out buying and selling brokerage, you may make 7.3%. No need the price to move up, just trade at buyer or seller quotes and you can make profit. If you can repeat that many times in a year, you may make 50% or 100% in a year.

In Bursa Malaysia, there are many counters that are trading below $0.20. One bid can actually make profit. The lower the price the higher the profit.

Those price more than $1.00 also can be done, but the percentage gain is very little and your brokerage fee need to be low and you need to trade big. After minus buying and selling brokerage you may get less than 1% but if you can repeat it frequentlty, then the total percentage gain can be high if annualize it. The higher the price, the less profit but easier to get your order matched.

RISKS, LIMITATIONS OR DIFFICULTIES:
One bid profit has very little profit, just few percent or in some case less than 1%. If the price drop sharply, you may lose out more than 10%.

Many people are always doing that. That is why you notice there are many people queing to buy and queing to sell the counters that is less than $0.20, especially those less than $0.10. You may not get the chance to buy even you que there for many many days

Normally the counters that is less than $0.10 are poor in fundamental, the price may continue to go down or even be delisted. But there are still come counters that are profitable.

You can only make small profit. In the above example, because you immediately que to sell at $0.065, even if the stock shot up to $1.00, you only manage to sell at $0.065.

To make more profit, you need to repeat your trade many times.

Time consuming because you have to actively buy or sell.

OPINION:
You must ask yourself few questions. What are the chances that the stock price will continue to drop. What are the chances that you manage to buy or manage to sell, and how many times in a month? Are you willing to earn little profit but the loss can be high if market move against you.

You may want to consider counters where there have high volume but less people queing to buy or sell. The chances of your orders get matched will be higher.

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How to understand Research Report

2012-01-14T16:29:00.000+08:00

Recently I read a research report on a stock in Bursa Malaysia. The analyst recommend Outperform on a stock. The stock share price is RM4.56 but the fair value is RM4.50.

He or she recommend outperform, if I buy at RM4.56, what do I get? I try to find of explanation in the report but couldn't find any.

I just couldn't understand. I think we also need some basic knowledge in stock market so that we can make our own judgement or decision.

My Fund Performance 2011

2012-01-11T18:15:00.001+08:00

For the year of 2011:

KLCI up 0.75%

My Fund up 24.80% + 1.5% + 1% = 27.3%

Most counters performed quite okay, except NTPM (sold) and Zhulian.

But both have been giving some good dividend, the damage was not so great.

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52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market - Part 29/52 - Loyalty Points

2012-01-02T10:56:00.002+08:00

Some brokers offer loyalty points to their clients. Example through buying and selling you may already have traded $500,000 in value and you may collect 500 points and can redeem for gift.Or if your brokerage hit a certain amount, they may give you a gift. Some brokers may be doing promotion, and the amount that they set is very easy to achieve.

RISKS, LIMITATIONS OR DIFFICULTIES:
Normally the loyalty points are very little because the profit margin for brokers is very little.

Only when they having promotion, then the gifts will be great and the target is easy to achieve.

OPINION:
Don’t simply trade just to earn points. This is just an extra benefit where even you don’t make any profit, you may get something back.

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Ayamas = Hai Yao Ma joke
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/2010/12/ayamas-hai-yao-ma.html

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Promotion - Cheapest Brokerage $0.20 per trade

2011-12-30T07:13:00.018+08:00

Look at the following brokerage and you determine whether it is the lowest brokerage / commission or not. Per trade is only $0.20. There are a few simple conditions that need to be met.

Terms and Conditions:
It has be an online trade and cash upfront (for buying).

You still have to pay your own stamp duty and clearing fee.

Only one matched price is allowed. If there is more than one price being matched, a surcharge (extra charges) of $1.00 for each additional price.

Maximum quantity is 5,000 shares. There will be a surcharge of $1.00 for each additional 5,000 shares.

Maximum value is $10,000. There will be a surcharge of $10.00 for each additional $10,000.

You can only key-in one order. There will be a surcharge of $1.00 for each additional order, amendment or cancellation.

You have to book your brokerage now and fix a date that you want to trade. The trade date has to be at least 3 months from your booking date.

Upon booking, you have to pay all fees upfront such as stamp duty, clearing fee, and all surcharge etc. Non-refundable.

If the actual brokerage plus all charges are more than what you have paid during booking, there will be a surcharge of 50% on the difference.

After knowing the terms and conditions, you think this can be the cheapest brokerage? Stamp duty and clearing fee you need to pay, that is very normal. As long as you trade less than 5,000 shares and less than $10,000, with one order and one price, you only need to pay $0.20. I think this is the cheapest.

NOW EVERYONE CAN TRADE IN STOCK MARKET

Note:
The above is just my own imagination. There is no such thing.

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PEGGY Method

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52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market - Part 28/52 - Earn Interest in Trust Account

2011-12-29T07:04:00.000+08:00

Earn Interest in Trust Account.

Do you know that your money in your your trading account can earn you interest? They called it Trust Account.

The interest rate that you earn is actually quite high, higher than most Bank Savings Account and Current Account. Slightly lower than FD. Therefore, better than put in most of your Bank current or savings account.

Don’t always take out your sales proceed, leave it there.

Once your cheque is in the trust account, most brokers will let you earn interest immediate and no need to wait till your cheque cleared.

Especially during long public holiday, you may put in a cheque at the end of the working day and start earning interest for the next few public holidays plus weekend. Because the money has not debited from your bank current account, you also continue to earn interest from your current account, so you are actually earning interest from two accounts.

Put in the trust account if:
If you plan to buy shares soon.

You plan to use it in less than a month, so, unable to place in FD.

You are not sure when you need the money. In trust account you can withdraw anytime without penalty. But in FD premature withdrawal will be hit by penalty (interest forfeited)

Withdraw from Trust account if:

You are not using the money for more than a month, so better place in FD.

RISKS, LIMITATIONS OR DIFFICULTIES:

Don’t put in Trust account if you may need it anytime and quite urgent. This is because brokers are closed on weekend (no cheque or ATM for trust account) and most broker need 24 hours to process.

The interest rate is lower than FD, so in longer period better put in FD.

OPINION:

Check your savings and current account interest rate, superb low. Please check with your remisier or dealer on the interest rate for trust account.

Plan your fund so that you benefited from the interest in Trust Account.

Although some brokers need 24 hours to process, they may process speedily for you if for urgent case and can also credit straight to your bank account (without issuing you cheque). Do check with your remisier or dealer.

But please be reminded that brokers are closed on weekend (no cheque or ATM for trust account) and most broker need 24 hours to process, therefore you can’t use it for emergency purposes.

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Bayu @ Pandan Jaya review

2011-12-28T07:15:00.073+08:00

This afternoon went to Bayu @ Pandan Jaya, total 3 blocks. Block B and Block C have been fully sold, except one middle unit and one corner unit at the highest floor and the price is RM553k and RM541k respectively. They said Block A will be open for sale mid of January 2012.
The location is immediately after the Pandan Jaya LRT station. Block A is nearest, just after the car park of the LRT station. It is along the LRT track heading the MRR2 direction. But in front of Block A, there is a water treatment plant.

The starting price is RM450k and I randomly picked a unit on 7th floor, the price is RM499,000.

They only have one direction. All the balcony are facing KL Centre, and can view KLCC indirectly. All the main doors with corridor are facing LRT tracks . Because they only have one direction, the density per floor is quite low, only 8 unit per floor.

2 car parks per unit. As usual they will absorb the legal fees for S&P. But buyer will have to pay the bank loan legal fee.

Developer is Extensive Gain Sdn Bhd. Melati Ehsan Group. They asked Kim Realty to sell. Melati stock is listed on Bursa Malaysia and Melati share price is RM0.74 very thinly traded and most of the times are untraded.

For more info on Bayu @ Pandan Jaya:
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/2011/12/bayu-pandan-jaya-condo.html

Other articles:

Is GOLD money? Or is it a commodity?

How NOT to buy a house or property in Share Market

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52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market - Part 27/52 - Offer Your ESOS

2011-12-26T17:57:00.001+08:00

Offer your ESOS

Before reading this, you need to read my earlier post titled: Offer Premium to ESOS.

http://politemarket.blogspot.com/2011/12/52-ways-of-making-money-in-stock-market.html

If you are entitled for any ESOS, don’t just subscribe and sell it. Offer it to your friends or relatives at higher price.

Assuming you work in ABC Bhd. Your ESOS entitled you to buy up 20,000 shares at $3.00. The expiry date is 5 year.

The market price of ABC is $3.40.

You want to subscribe your ESOS and sell it, total cost is $60,000, market value is $68,000.

You will make $8,000.

But WAIT. Offer the ESOS to your friends or relative at $8,800 or more. Try to convince them using the reasons or benefits in my earlier post. Sell to them at $10k, or even $20k, or more, rather than just make $8,000.

RISKS, LIMITATIONS OR DIFFICULTIES:

You need to have ESOS and need convince your friends or relatives.

OPINION:

If you decide to subscribe and sell your ESOS, then only you consider this. If you think your company is good and can grow, better to subscribe and hold the shares (receive dividend) or wait till near expiry then only subscribe.

If you hold on to the ESOS yourself, the gain is unlimited when your company grow.

Don’t ask me whether this is legal or not, I don’t know. This is an informal arrangement between you and your friends/ cousin/ family members. Please check it yourself.

For more info on 52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market, click here.

http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/52%20Ways%20of%20Making%20Money%20in%20Stock%20Market

Greater Knowledge comes with Greater Responsibility in Stock Market

2011-12-26T08:41:00.001+08:00

Spiderman said Greater Power comes with Greater Responsibility. In stock market is the same. Greater knowledge of stock market, comes with greater responsibility. If you are working in a stockbroking firm, many of your friends will ask you what stock to buy, whether the ABC stock can buy or not, now is it the time to enter, etc.
Even if you are not working in a stockbroking, as long as you are knowledgeable, consistently making money, then many people will come and ask you what stock to buy. Especially during festive season like Christmas season now, you will be meeting friends and relatives, and they will ask you these questions.

Although you are not a financial consultant or adviser, and it is illegal to give advice, as know as you have the knowledge, people will still ask you. What are you gonna say to them? Are you going to tell them it is illegal to tell them?

That is why Greater Knowledge comes with Greater Responsibility in Stock Market

Other articles:

How I kill my friends in Bursa Malaysia Stock Market

Should we que or just get it done while buying or selling in Bursa Malaysia Stock Market?

Add my blog into your blog.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/

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Lion Industries Corporation Berhad buy or sell

2011-12-22T11:55:00.000+08:00

Lion Industries share price RM1.36.Two different stories by two brokers, EcmLibra said STRONG BUY (2Dec) and RHB said Underperform (5dec).

Lionind stock PE Ratio: for financial year ended June 2011, PE ratio is about 8x.

Growth: RHB forecast negative 14.3% (2012), positive 18.9% (2013) and positive 9.2% (2014).

The EcmLibra report does not provide any forecast figures, but saying the share price of Lion Industries have dropped 38% due to fear of a slowdown in Malaysia’s economic and other steel companies have already reported losses. But their view is that Malaysia will continue to register positive economic growth in 2012 and Lion Industries will benefit when many infrastructure projects kick off in 2012.

Lion Industries is having net cash. Dividend yield is quite low.

Comment by RHB:
LionCorp proposed capital reconstruction and settlement. Lion Industries will end up with a smaller stake in LionCorp, to 14.3%. During the process, Lion Industries may need to write-off 80% of the trade receivables and could be ended up with a net loss of RM45.6m.

Steel producers will continue to be under pressure, due to weak steel prices, high material cost, and hike in electricity and natural gas tariff. The financial uncertainties of LionCorp may spill over o Lion Industries by virtue of LionCorp’s 25% stake in Lion Industries. Lionind fair value is RM1.19.

Comment by EmcLibra:
Lion Industries has undergone a transformation for the past five years, from highly geared company to a clean balance sheet. Although cyclical nature of the steel industry, they still added value from Net Asset Value per share of RM2.88 to RM4.54. If value Lion Industries at 50% of RNAV per share of RM4.31, Lion Industries fair value will be RM2.16, that is 61% upside potential. If the Lionind share price can trade close to the RNAV per share, then the potential upside will be 217%. Overall comment is Strong Buy. For info, one of the item that EcmLibra used to derive the RNAV is 50% receivables write-off.

I’m not sure why there are two different views from analysts. Maybe something happened or got major news between 2Dec to 5Dec. More info, please refer to RHB and EcmLibra.

Uo to individuals.

Other articles:

How your wife can help you in stock market

Technical Analysis Practical

Point of Sale in Bursa Malaysia Stock Market

Add my blog link to your blog:
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/

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Genneva Malaysia impact on Gold Price

2011-12-20T07:11:00.002+08:00

There are many factors that cause the increase in Gold price:1) Inflation
2) Instability of financial markets
3) Centre Banks try to keep more gold and less foreign currencies
4) more affluent consumers from China and India
5) Growing gold exchange-traded fund (ETF)
6) Growing number of Gold company such as Genneva Malaysia
7) etc etc

Normally rich people buy gold that cost about thousands and treat it as jewellery. But with gold companies such as Genneva Malaysia, they invest in gold by the millions.

With more and more company like Genneva Malaysia, more and more people will invest in gold, and in a big way. Because of this, the demand of gold will be more and will have an impact on the gold price.

Information on Genneva Malaysia, get from Genneva Malaysia company:
GENNEVA MALAYSIA SDN BHD (592576-A), (formerly known as Dimensi Sentosa Sdn Bhd). Business is to conduct gold bullion trading business in Malaysia using GENNEVA's unique concept.

GENNEVA MALAYSIA is a reporting institution under AMLA 2001 (Anti-Money Laundering & Anti-Terrorism Financing Act) and have complied with section 21(1) of BAFIA 1989 (Banking and Financial Institution Act), relating to factoring and leasing business and has acquired the status of a scheduled business.

As of mid of December 2011, GENNEVA MALAYSIA Headquarters in Kuala Lumpur and has branch offices and/or representative offices in Perak, Johor, Sarawak, Penang, Melaka and Sabah.

More info on Genneva Malaysia:
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/Genneva%20Malaysia

http://politemarket.blogspot.com/2011/04/genneva-malaysia-gold.html

Thanks

100% Gain

2011-12-19T07:31:00.027+08:00

Previously after buying the stock, if goes up 10% or 20%, I will sell. It has not been effective or successful.

My timing of selling and buying are always wrong. Then I try to make as high % as possible but don’t know what stock to buy.

Therefore, I come out with a stock selection method using PEGGY Method, which is very simple and straight forward.

Now I try to make as high % as possible, eg 50%, 100% or more.

Evergreen RM0.555 January 2009
100% 9 months October 2009.
200% 14 months March 2010.

Genting Singapore S$0.69 October 2007
100% 22 months August 2010
200% 23 months September 2010

Adventa RM1.86 November 2009
100% 2 months January 2010

QL RM1.60 December 2009
100% 14 months February 2011

Freight RM0.62 October 2010
100% 17 month August 2011

Bonia RM1.03 March 2010
100% 19 months December 2011

Off course I hold a basket of stocks. Examples some 100% gain, some 20%, some loss, etc, average out is still ok.

I know some people can spot a stock that make few times or few hundred percent. But can they repeat the performance year after year? 100% gain in one year, RM100,000 after 20 years will be RM104.8 billion.

I also know some people buy many many stocks and some of the stocks went up few hundred percent. But what is the average portfolio gain?

For me, I don’t have insider news, earn average salary, don’t know technical analysis, don’t know how to interpret economy or do detailed company analysis. What I do is straight forward, looking at PEGGY figures, that is PE ratio, Growth, Gearing and Yield (dividend) from analyst reports and do my own selection.

For infomation on my fund performance, click here.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/My%20Fund%20Performance

Articles:

Worth to invest in 4D? Or stock market is better?

Should we pray for crisis in stock market?

How your wife can help you in stock market

Add my blog into your blog.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com

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Bayu @ Pandan Jaya condo

2011-12-18T16:37:00.000+08:00

My friend ask us whether can invest in Bayu @ Pandan Jaya condo. The project is near Pandan Jaya LRT.

Traffic.
Some complain that traffic there is bad, especially when reach kampung pandan roundabout. But some said the location is good, can easily access to mrr2, kg pandan roundabout, desa pandan going to jan tun razak, access to pgrm via shamerlin, jusco maluri jalan cheras.

Some complain too near LRT, noisy. But some said convenient because near LRT. Very easy to rent out.

Leasehold.

Distance to KL city is near.

The layout and design look luxury. But some complain it is surrounded by low cost or medium cost apartments. Some said it is the only nice condo in pandan jaya.

I think is abiut 1050sf square feet, price starting rm450+. Many said expensive, but some said with the current property price trend, the price is normal.

The demand is quite good and selling fast.

52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market - Part 26/52 - Offer Premium to ESOS

2011-12-17T23:24:00.002+08:00

Offer Premium to ESOSWhat is ESOS? ESOS is Employee Share Option Scheme.

Example as an employee, he or she is entitled to buy certain quantity of the company shares at a fixed price.

Assuming your cousin work in ABC Bhd. His ESOS entitled him to buy up to 20,000 shares at $3.00. The expiry date is 5 year.
The market price of ABC is $3.40.
He wants to subscribe his ESOS, total cost is $60,000, market value is $68,000.
He will make $8,000.

But you ask him to WAIT WAIT WAIT ! ! !.
You offer him $8,800 informally.
He say yes because he got extra $800 and he no need to come out with $60,000 to subscribe, and you pay him $8,800.

After 5 years what happen?
If the price drop 75% from $3.40 to $0.85. You do nothing and the ESOS lapsed and you lose $8,800.
If the price increase 75% from $3.40 to $5.95.
You pay him and ask him to exercise his ESOS (cost $60,000) and sell at $5.95 (sales $119,000), gain $59,000.
After minus out your initial cost of $8,800, net gain is $50,200.

Why good?
*Your investment is $8,800, and you make $50,200, that is 470%, although the ABC shares just up 75%.
*Your maximum loss is just $8,800. But your maximum gain is unlimited. The above example is just up 75%, 5 years many things can happen, if the price up 120%, then you will make more than 1,000%.
*Conclusion is, minimum loss, maximum gain.

RISKS, LIMITATIONS OR DIFFICULTIES:
You need to find cousins or friends or family members with ESOS.
They also need to be trusted? So that they will not run away or exercise the ESOS without your knowledge.
You also need to convince them to take up your offer.
Not sure whether this is legal or illegal?
What if your cousin meets with an accident and pass away? The ESOS is gone.

OPINION:
Worry about cousin pass away or what? Remember your maximum loss is $8,800?
If you have opportunity, calculate it, evaluate the company whether can grow or not, and can consider it.
Don’t ask me whether this is legal or not, I don’t know. This is an informal arrangement between you and your friends/ cousin/ family members. Please check it yourself whether legal or not.

For more info on 52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market……..
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/52%20Ways%20of%20Making%20Money%20in%20Stock%20Market

Articles you may be interested:

Woman is like Stock Market, very Unpredictable

Add my blog into your blog...
http://politemarket.blogspot.com

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I Made 7 Consecutive Wrong Decisions in Stock Market

2011-12-16T07:12:00.000+08:00

Recently I made 7 consecutive wrong decisions in stock market.

This is how it happened:

I normally follow a fixed set of rules in my investment (normally gain).
And I will allocate some money to play or do trading (normally loss).

1st
Bought Rights entitlement and subscribe for the rights issue.
Before the shares were credited, the price keeps dropping.
Sold at a loss.

2nd
I bought a stock in July 2011.
Then due to US debt ceiling issue, the price drop.

3rd
I was thinking better play safe. I then sold at a loss.
But the price then recovered.

4th
Market has stabilized. I then went in at higher price.
Then due to the cut in US debt rating, market then tumbled.

5th
Market is very uncertain. Bad news everywhere.
So I decided to sell at a loss and hopefully can buy back cheaper later.

6th
The market then recovered. Decided not to buy so that not be cheated again.
But then the stock went much higher.

7th
Sold a stock that has went up, but it then went higher.

On the above examples, on average, the losses or "made less" is about 15%. I think the above wrong decisions cost me 100%.

Anyway as I have mentioned many times in my blog, I am not good in trading. But for long term investment, I think I'm doing quite ok. That is why I only allocate a small sum of my money into trading. I hope I can improve.

Bursa Malaysia High Dividend Stocks

2011-12-15T13:20:00.001+08:00

Recently I saw the list from the net, Ecmlibra listing some selective Bursa Malaysia high dividend stocks.

Dividend Yield, Beta, Market Capitalisation (RM mil), Closing Price 21 November 2011, PE Ratio, Total Return YTD (%)

AL-'AQAR KPJ 7.2 0.46 679 1.17 14.4 13

TOWER REIT 8.3 0.46 345 1.24 11.3 9

AMFIRST REIT 7.8 0.51 489 1.15 10.9 6

AMANAHRAYA REIT 8.2 0.51 504 0.88 11.8 0

AXIS REAL ESTATE 6.7 0.54 940 2.57 10.7 17

CAPITAMALLS MALAYSIA 8.3 0.54 2,411 1.36 16.8 32

MAXIS BHD 6.0 0.54 39,825 5.31 17.4 6

QUILL CAPITA TR 7.3 0.56 425 1.09 12.4 6

STARHILL REIT 7.4 0.56 1,146 0.87 n.a. 6

UOA REIT 7.1 0.58 584 1.38 0.3 -2

WHITE HORSE BHD 7.1 0.58 408 1.70 6.6 -14

HEKTAR REIT 7.9 0.62 419 1.31 10.4 5

Al-Hadharah Boustead REIT 6.9 0.62 928 1.48 8.8 10

BERJAYA SPORTS TOTO 5.1 0.70 5,566 4.13 14.7 -4

TELEKOM MALAYSIA 5.5 0.70 15,061 4.18 13.2 35

GUINNESS ANCHOR 5.1 0.75 3,202 10.62 16.2 10

SUNWAY REIT 6.3 0.75 2,985 1.12 5.4 16

MAYBANK 7.3 0.95 61,247 8.20 13.6 0

LAFARGE MALAYAN 5.2 0.96 5,676 6.60 18.6 -11

I would like to comment on this. It may be a mistake if we just look for Bursa Malaysia Highest Dividend Yield stocks. The dividend may be one-off special dividend, business may not be able to sustain and may not afford to pay same amount of dividend, etc.

But Ecmlibra add value to their listing. They listed out selected high dividend yield stocks:

1) with relatively stable businesses, and

2) market capitalization of more than RM300m for liquidity.

3) ranked them in ascending order of beta, where the lower the beta, the less correlated the stock’s share price is to the FBMKLCI i.e. the more defensive the stock in the event of further weakness in the overall market.

Felda Global Ventures Holdings IPO

2011-12-15T07:12:00.006+08:00

Read from the news, when will be the listing of Felda Global Ventures Holdings IPO (FGV) on the Bursa Malaysia stock exchange? It will probably be in March next year.

They said the listing is important to Felda settlers. The settlers will own shares in the listed Felda Global Ventures Holdings IPO via the settlers' co-operative, Felda Investment Co-operative (KPF), and will have a controlling stake.

Felda Investment Co-operative EGM to be held on Jan 5 to vote on the IPO issue. The listing of FGV is expected to raise some RM6 billion.

Government own 100% of Felda Global Ventures.

Felda Investment Co-operative owns 51% in Felda Holdings while Felda Global Ventures holds 49%. Under the proposed listing, settlers would swap their 51% stake in Felda Holdings via Felda Investment Co-operative for 61% control of Felda Global Ventures.

Felda Holdings has about 880,000 ha plantation landbank.

The Star, extract.

Buy penny stock to avoid odd lot? or no need?

2011-12-12T12:34:00.009+08:00

Buy penny stock to avoid odd lot? or no need?

There are many advantages in buying penny stock. Example volatide and fast money, realative cheap, higher voloume, etc.

What i want to share is, another advantage of buying penny stock is it can minimise odd lot.

If you have limited money and you normally invest in small amount, then you should consider buying penny stock.

Example you have RM3000, you buy a stock 1000 shares @ RM3.00.
If they have bonus issue 1 for every 3, then you end up having lot odd 1333 shares. The 33 shares are very difficult to sell, may sell at lower price, and higher cost.

Examples of othe corporate exercise that may result you having odd lot:
Share dividend 1 for every 25
Free warrant 1 for every 6
etc

If you buy penny stock, you can buy more shares and can minimise the odd lot.
If you have 3000 shares, then bonus issue 1 for 3 you will end up having 4000 shares.

Few things that you need to consider:
Long term or short term or medium term. If short term, don't bother. If you buy and keep for very long term, then odd lot is not a problem. You are not selling and the losses from odd lot is spread out for many years and not much impact. Odd lot still pay you dividend.

Valuation. If you could not find any good penny stock, then buy other good non-penny stock. Don't force yourself buying penny stock.

Anyway, if you think the stock is very good, just buy it. Odd lot losses is just about few percent, very little. The company may not have bonus issue or other corporate action before you sell it. Furthermore, if the company have rights issue, odd lot can apply excess.

You must expect to make 100% and not 10%

2011-12-10T10:40:00.000+08:00

I was away from the stock market for past few months and now i don't know what stock to buy. I check with my friend on a stock. He told me should be able to make 20% in medium term. Then i told him this, i want 100%. He then got speechless.

Previously i was aiming 10% and my trading was not succesful. I bought a stock, made 10% or 20%, then sold it and buy another stock. The problem is after i sold, the stock continue to go up. The new stock that i buy, sometimes didn't go up or drop. I made very little and also made losses. When market down, most stocks also down. When market up, most stocks up. Why bother to switch? I also simply buy stocks recomended by others. All these are not effective.

Then i came out with PEGGY Method, and trying to find a good stock that i can make as many % as possible. Can be 20%, 40%, or 100%. The timing when to buy, i use Dollar Cost Averaging method. Will sell when the price is more than the value of the company or the company lack growth.

Anyway, I'm not saying that i can make a lot of money in short term or long term. I also made wrong decisions, but trying to minimise losses from wrong decisions and maximise profits from right decisions. With my current investment, i made much better profit as compared with last time. Last time hardly got profit.

I got two portfolio, and one of them i manage to keep track on my investment return. You can click on the label titled "My Fund Performance".

Later i will post how i made 7 consecutive of wrong decisions in just two or three months.

Can we transfer shares from another location?

2011-12-09T13:16:00.011+08:00

If my shares are in Penang, can I transfer my shares if I'm in Kuala Lumpur? Although i have some knowledge in stock market, this simple question i also could not answer.

Therefore, i checked with a friend and she said yes, provided that the processing office is the same company as the place where my shares are residing. Meaning if my shares are in CIMB Penang, I can go to other CIMB branches to transfer my shares.

This is what my friend told me. I have not done that before, and if you want to know more, you have to check with your dealer or remisier.

Fitters stock to list its renewable energy unit

2011-12-08T22:13:00.000+08:00

Read in the news from Power Engineering. Fitters originally planned to list its renewable energy unit in end of 2009. But there was some delay. The company still plan to list its wholelly-owned unit Future NRG (FNRG) Sdn Bhd on London Alternative Investment Market (AIM).

The fund raising excercise will provide the necessary fund for its renewable energy projects.

Two interesting statements made by its managing director Richard Wong Swee Yee. First, he has set a profit growth target of 20% per year for Fitters. Second, he said Fitters is in a growing phase.

When we plan to buy a stock, growth is one of the important factors to look at. Question is, can Fitters achieve the growth rate? Up to individuals to judge.

More on Fitters shares, please click on the label "Fitters"

Fund Performance Updates

2011-12-08T07:36:00.047+08:00

To update on my own fund performance as at 30 Nov 2011.

One year period:

KLCI Down 0.9%
My fund up 31.2% + 1.5% + 1% = 33.7%

Actually i am quite surprised that my fund can perform so well considering KLCI didnt go up. I don't think i can repeat that kind of performance in next few months or a year. My aim is still the same, that is in the long run to get a return much higher than FD and at the same time to outperform the KLCI.

We can make 100% or more on a stock in a very short period if we bought a right stock at the right time. But to get a high return on a portfolio consisting of cash and stocks may not be that easy. Keep more cash or more stocks, how many stocks, etc, all need to be carefully managed. However, outperform the KLCI is achievable.

On the history of my fund and why i need to add 1.5% + 1%, please visit my previous post on my fund performance.

Royale Vietnam - nice restaurant

2011-12-07T07:25:00.063+08:00

Recently i went to dine in Royale Vietnam Starhill Gallery, Feast Floor, Jalan Bukit Bintang. I dont know how to evaluate food, but the taste is nice and all my friends like it. The atmosphere and the design or layout is nice too.

Four of us.

Our food:
Mango salad rm18
Pamelo salad rm18
Starter combo rm35
Pineapple friend rice rm28
Meat Vermicelli dried noddle rm25
Lemongrass claypot chicken rm32
Vietnamese tea rm5 x 4 = rm20

Service charge 10% plus tax

Total rm204

Not sure that consider expensive or normal.

Fitters stock

2011-12-05T23:49:00.001+08:00

Can you comment on Fitters stock?

For the past one year, i read few Fitters stock analysis from rhb. Four things here. First issue is the business is quite complicated. Fire prevention and construction, green project, palm oil milling, property, renewable energy, fibre and pellet. After reading so much, i dont really understand. But my summary is this, it is a new venture and with uncertainty. But if successful the growth will be very good.

Second issue is, because i dont really understand the story, i look at the figures. As a lazy investor, i normally look at figures. No matter how beautiful the story, if the figures are not good, I am not interested. Analyst has done a great job in summarising all the story into figures. But for the past one year, i noticed that the forecast given by rhb always have big changes.

Third issue is, rhb has written few Fitters shares research report, but they always put unrated. I always curious why they want to write so many but still unrated.

Fourth issue is, if u get a Fitters stock analysis report, make sure the figures include the warrants shares. Meaning, Fitters earning per share should be showing a warrant diluted earning per share. This is to be more prudent. Rhb report did not include warrants.

Let me present it using some basic figures, forecast by rhb in oct 2011, i add in the warrant for calculation.

At Fitters share price of RM0.90.

Fitters PE ratio 10.9x (dec 2011)
Growth 57% (2012), 14% (2013). PE ratio estimated 6.6x (dec2013)
Gearing 0.3
Fitters Dividend yield 1.6%

From the above we can see that with that kind of growth, Fitters shares PE ratio is not expensive. However, the growth is quite uncertain especially the forecast have been changing many times.

For info, there is one broker, i think is Mercury Securities (cannot remember who), is recommending a buy onFitters stock.

If you trust rhb forecast and you think that Fitters green venture will be successful, then based on the figures i think Fitters can keep. Even without the future green profit, Fitters still trading at 10x only, as long as no major losses if the project fail.

Question is, whether you trust the forecast and confident in the green venture.

Exemption of Real Property Gain Tax (RPGT)

2011-12-05T00:14:00.000+08:00

Recently i have sold a property. Because i bought it less than 5 years ago and is subject to property gain tax. 5% of the gain.

Then my colleague told me i can actually get once in a life time exemption. Actually nobody advise me on this and i was not aware. I have to thank him.

Question is whether i want to get the exemption now, or for my future property. I decided to get it now, because my future property i may not make money or may sell it after five years or i may not sell any property before i die.

In case some of you don't know, just like me, we can actually apply for exemption for Real Property Gain Tax. You can consult your agent or lawyer.

More info on property here.

http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/Property

Thanks

Bstead Pharma

2011-12-03T08:26:00.001+08:00

I have some small quantity of Boustead, don't know when i bought it. Now they are offering me Pharmaniaga shares at rm5+, market price is almost rm6. I'm not sure whether to subscribe for it. Pharma is currently suspended, don't know since when, and not sure what will bethe price when it reopen. Normally friends will ask my opinion, but this time because i was away from market, i'll will have to ask my friends for advice.

TSH bonus issue

2011-12-03T08:14:00.001+08:00

TSH just ex for bonus 1for1. You will get bonus shares, and your purchase pricec will be half, if you want to compare your purchase price with market price. If you have bought at rm2.80 before bonus, then your price is adjusted to rm1.40. Now the price is about rm1.90.

Went up more than 30% recently, but i think it still deserve a Hold. For long term, may continue to accumulate using Dollar Cost Averaging.

Updates

2011-12-03T00:14:00.000+08:00

Few months didn't blog. Recently didnt follow the market, but heard the news such as Narra error,Harvest designated, Malaysia Gas.

Currently have very limited access to internet. Hope to continue with stock market and blogging soon. Probably end of this year or next year.

Taking a Break

2011-08-10T07:46:00.002+08:00

Due to some personal reason, I will be taking a break from blogging. Currently my mind is being occupied by some other thing that I can't continue to write. Initially I wanted to totally stop blogging, but investment is something I like and I cannot let it go just like that.
Actually I also plan to publish out all the 52 series before I take a break. I almost complete all the articles and it just need some touch-up. But I just unable to continue.

Thanks for the support all this while.

52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market - Part 25/52 - Program Trading

2011-08-09T07:26:00.001+08:00

What is stock market program trading?

That means you can set your criteria AND an action. If your criteria is met, then the system will execute the action that you have set.

Different program trading can suite different strategy.

For example, sell 2000 LPI share at RM20.10 if it hit RM20.00. When LPI hit RM20, then the system will auto key-in to sell 2000 LPI for you at RM20.10.

If you decided to take profit and sell your LPI share at RM20.00, with this program trading, it will auto key-in for you and you don’t have to monitor and no worry that you will be late.

In some technical analysis, it will have bullish breakout if the price broke the resistance level. Example if the resistance level is RM1.00, then set the condition as buy 10000 shares at RM1.01 if it hit RM1.01.

Technical analysis may give you sell signal if it drop below $0.95. So, you set your criteria to sell when the price it below $0.94.

If you think that if Genting Singapore share hit S$6.00 and sure got a lot of buying interest in Genting Bhd share and is worth buying at RMX, then you can set this. Buy Genting Bhd share at RMX if Genting Singapore share hit S$6.00. With this, you no need to monitor Genting Singapore share price.

Sell ABC share at RM3.50 if it hit RM3.50. Buy ABC warrant at RM1.00 if ABC share hit RM3.50. You may want to switch stock or you may want to do arbitrage.

Benefit of program trading:

You no need to monitor the stocks.

Fast action. The system immediately auto key-in for you when your creteria is met. Without system, you have to manually monitor and I’m sure you will always miss it or late.

No emotion involve. Many people told me they have a cut loss plan but when there is a sell signal to cut loss, they refuse to sell because of emotion. In program trading, you can set your sell criteria and the system will auto do it for you, no emotion involve.

Risk

Price. Imagine you have set sell LPI at RM20.10 if it hit RM20.10. But although it hit RM20.10, but the buyer is at RM20.00 and seller is at RM20.10. You will be queing at seller side and your order may not be done and LPI may drop back to much lower level.

Imagine buy PChem call warrant at $1.00 when PChem share price hit $x. When Pchem share price hit $x, due to nearly to expiry date, PChem call warrant may trade at just $0.97. Your order of buying at $1.00 is higher than market price and you may lose out.

By the time your criteria is met, situation may be different. Imagine you have set a cut loss criteria, but the price didn’t drop and is adjusted lower due to bonus issue or rights issue, then it will trigger your sell order.

Sometimes especially in Bursa Malaysia stock market, many counters are illiquid or low volume. It can be easily being mark up or mark down the price. Therefore the price is not genuine and is just temporary. However, these price movement may meet your criteria and trigger your orders.

Very dangerous especially it is a program sell. Imagine many people have set program sell. If the stock trade at lower price, it may trigger some program sell and cause the stock price to trade lower. Then due to lower price, it may trigger other program selling and it just continue and continue.

It can be quite risky if we don’t know how to use program trading in Bursa Malaysia stock market.

Use it only if you are confident. Check with your remisier or dealer whether your trading program is workable or not. Only set on stocks that you are familiar or you are monitoring. Do not set too long of the program trading expiry date, situation can be totally different or there may be some corporate action.

Which Malaysia online system broker offer program selling?

Some is offering and I think soon all brokers in Malaysia will offer program selling.

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52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market - Part 24/52 - First Day Trading Volatility

2011-08-08T07:46:00.000+08:00

First Day Trading Volatility

During the First Day trading of everything (IPO, product, shares, etc), you may see big volatility. So, you may be able to capitalize on that.

The reasons why first day that is so much of volatility are:

1)There is no market price yet. People just don’t know what price to trade

2)People are not familiar with the new product

3)The prices that are allowed to trade are more than 30% limit up/down on the first day. If mistake happen, it can be bigger than normal day mistake.

On the listing day of IPO, rights issue, warrants, etc, people just don’t know what will be the market price. It can swing up and down drastically. You may want to do day trade, or que lower hoping that you may get it.

On the first day of new product, many people are not familiar and may tend to make mistake. You may want to key in orders that are far from market price and hope you can get it.

RISKS, LIMITATIONS OR DIFFICULTIES:

Because it is first day, you are also not that familiar.

No one really knows the market price. It can be much lower or much higher than the fair value given by analyst.

OPINION:

For those who are not familiar, the chances of making money from first day volatile is very slim. I have seen people make $100,000 just by placing a buy order at very low price, someone made mistake and he got it.

For those expert Day Trader, may consider it because the volatility and volume is there.

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52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market - Part 23/52 - Fast Moving Advantage

2011-08-07T08:45:00.001+08:00

Fast Moving Advantage

This mean you are the first or among the first that buy the shares before others rush to buy it.

Example of situation is the company may have announced a very big project at 1.30pm. As you know many people are out for lunch or may not listen to news or surf internet. Many are not aware of the announcement, only small group of people.

Most probably there will be some buying interest but not that many. If you are aware of the news, you may buy it. When more and more people are aware of the news and buy it, you may be able to sell and make a profit.

Previously most news, announcement of projects, financial result are announced after 5pm. Then in the morning will appear in newspaper and everybody read it before market open.

Now the company can make the announcement during lunch break when most people are enjoying their lunch. Those who read it first will have a first moving advantage.

Another scenario is the stock price will go up when there is a buy recommendation by some popular blogs. These popular blog has no fixed timing to publish their article. They will publish at anytime. If you are first to read it, you may be able to buy it before others rush to buy it.

There are many scenario when you are among the first to know the news and buy the shares. Example it can be insider news or insider trading (illegal). If you are related to the company, then you may know the info faster than the public.

Another scenario is time zone. The company may win the project in India and is being announced during trading hours. Those who are following the development may be able to know before the stock gets suspended or news gets published.

Another scenario is you may be the first one that indentify the buy signal from technical analysis. I still remember my friend told me Taliworks has bullish break-out and then we bought and made money. Then after we have sold, Maybank publish it saying bullish breakout. We were among the first who bought it.

RISKS, LIMITATIONS OR DIFFICULTIES:

The price may not go up after the announcement.

The price may have gone up before you buy.

Not easy to be the first to know, unless you are related to the company or you really spend a lot of time following the company developments. Or you may always need to read the news and get updated info.

OPINION:

If you are retail investors, don’t spend time sitting in front of the computer keep waiting for news.

Opportunity comes when you are related or interest on that company where you are following the development of that company.

As for remisier, most client like fast money. They don’t like to hold shares. You may click on the news or blogs and update clients. They like to buy and contra to make fast money.

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52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market - Part 22/52 - Technical Analysis

2011-08-05T07:11:00.001+08:00

Technical Analysis

Rather than just depend on Fundamental Analysis, you can also make money from technical analysis, or chartist.

This technical analysis have different different types of method such as candlestick, MACD, money flow, trend line, Ichimoku, Bollinger Band, etc. Each method use different formula and data. After analyzing the data, it will tell you whether got buy signal or sell signal or no signal.

How it works? Buy when there is a buy signal. Sell when there is a sell signal.

Even if a stock is a very good fundamental stock, if nobody buy, the stock will not go up. Technical analysis will give you the signal when to buy.

RISKS, LIMITATIONS OR DIFFICULTIES:

Sometime they create conflicting signal. Some method may have buy signal, but some have no signal or even sell signal.

It uses a lot of “IF”. If it cross $5.00, buy, but if it drop back below $4.70, cut loss.

If it cannot break 1524.69 point, it will crash. If it drop below $1.27, sell.

If it drop below 1430, then the next support level is 1400.

I find that it has too many IF. IF here IF there. What is all these IF about?

IF IT DROP BELOW 1430, THEN THE NEXT SUPPORT LEVEL IS 1400. Means what? Can buy now? Sell now?

Your profit may be less because Technical Analysis ask you to wait.

Example now is $4.76. It says IF it breaks $5.00, then buy. So you waited and it breaks $5.05 and you buy it. Imaging if you didn’t wait, you already bought it at $4.76, but now you bought it at higher price $5.05.

Furthermore, Technical Analysis contradict with fundamental. This is because fundamental say when the price drop lower, the cheaper the stock and buy more. But most of the times, technical analysis give buy signal when the price has gone up, and the higher it goes, the more bullish signal it has.

Because many stocks lack of volume and the price can easily be influenced by small quantity of buying and selling, so the technical analysis can’t work. As you know in Malaysia stock market, most counters are lack of volume.

I think it is not easy to learn because not many people are using it. Not many means in terms of percentage. Most of my friends that invest in stock market, only a few use technical analysis.

Technical analysis need high discipline. It does not bother about fundamental. So when it is time to cut loss, many people refuse to cut loss even they have bought stock that have poor fundamental.

On 26 January 2011, got two popular Malaysia blogs both also using technical analysis, one said AirAsia can consider to buy AirAsia, one said cannot. How?

OPINION

I think you can learn on technical analysis and see whether it works. You can test out on historical prices before you really trade. Please remember to cut loss.

Some people suggested to use technical analysis with fundamental. Use fundamental to select stock and the timing is by technical analysis.

Anyway, I’m not good in technical analysis, I’m learning. You may want to seek advice from others who are experienced.

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52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market - Part 21/52 - Initiate Coverage

2011-08-03T19:46:00.000+08:00

Initiate coverage

I noticed that sometimes when a broker started/ initiated coverage on a stock, it tends to have buying interest and the stock will move up.

There are few reasons to this. Assuming I trade with ECM, and I only read newspaper and ECM research. One day ECM started to cover ABC stock and said is good Buy. I don’t know anything ABC stock, but after read it, I like it and I buy. ECM also may have many customers doing the same.

Another reason is ECM research mainly is read by ECM customers. But sometimes if after they initiated coverage on a stock, the next day newspaper, online newspaper, business magazine may publish it with a title “ECM initiated coverage on ABC Stock with buy recommendation and target price of $X.XX”. Because many people read newspapers, that may creates more buying interest.

Especially during good market sentiment, people just need a bit of news to buy a stock. If you are ECM customers, you will have access to that research faster than the public.

RISKS, LIMITATIONS OR DIFFICULTIES:

The price may not go up. Higher chances of going up is only when market sentiment is good. Furthermore, the price increase may not be enough for you to take profit. And after a while, the stock may lack buying interest.

You also need to check whether the price has gone up before they initiate coverage. The day they initiate coverage, the stock may start coming down if previously has gone up a lot.

OPINION:

For me, I don’t buy base on initiate coverage, but I do notice that the stock will have buying interest after a broker initiated coverage. I will only buy if the fundamental are really good such as low PE ratio with high growth, etc. If the stock is good, and I read it on the day that broker initiated coverage, I normally buy it immediately before the public know. If I don’t buy, and the public know about it and the price jump, then I got no chance to buy.

But this normally happen if the market condition is ok. In bear market, no impact.

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Woman is like Stock Market, very Unpredictable

2011-08-01T15:07:00.001+08:00

Why I say that? You look at the similarities below:

1) Fit your requirement, but just cannot
Woman: There is this lady, fit exactly with what you want. All your friends and relatives also like her and want you to go after her. But after trying for two years, still fail. Then she got a new boyfriend.

Stock Market: There is this stock, fit exactly what you want, low PE, high growth etc. All analysts ask to buy. You bought it and for two years never go up. Then the profit start to drop and the share price start to drop.

2) Everything started well, but unexpected things happen.
Woman: There is this lady, seems to like you and you like her too. Both of you have starting went out once or twice. About to start a dating or relationship. Then unexpected things happen. Examples, she may have to be transferred to outstations/ overseas. She may change job that makes things difficult for both of you to keep in touch. Suddenly decided to go overseas to study. Suddenly another man come into the picture. Her ex boyfriend wants her back, etc.

Stock Market: This stock is really good. Very cheap and fundamental very good. Volume already started increasing. All the technical analysis shows buy signal. Price started increase. All of the sudden unexpected things happen, examples Japan earthquake, 911, government impose a special tax, etc.

3) You thought she didn't love you, but actually she did
Woman: You plan to date this lady, but after much trying, you didn't get a very strong confirmation. You thought she didn't love you. You gave up. In order to forget her fast, you cut off the relationship. After 3 months you found out that she was actually love you too. But too late. She was hurt by you or she already got a new boyfriend.

Stock Market: You bought this stock, after some quarterly results, the stocks seems to be having no growth. You thought the stock cannot grow, so you cut loss. After 3 months, the company announce a very good result. You wanted to buy back the stock, but is too late, the stock price already shot up sharply.

4) Hint
Woman: You like this lady, and you always get hints that this lady may be interested in you. The way she smile at you. Always call you. Talk good about you. Go out with you alone. You thought she must be interested in you. You confess your love to her. But she tell you she does not love you at all. She will then tell that you misunderstood her. She will say she is kind to everybody. She treat you just like good friend.

Stock Market: You know this insider, he gives you tips. You thought that tips must be accurate. You bought the shares. But end up losing money. You then ask him why. He will then tell you all the excuses, examples change of plan, unexpected things happen, etc.

As you can see, woman is like stock market, very unpredictable.

I admit that stock market is very unpredictable. But we can still overcome it to make money, by using few simple strategies such as buying fundamental stocks, buying through a period of time, diversification and be patience.

But how to overcome woman, I really got no answer. I don't know what woman want.

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Is GOLD money? Or is it a commodity?

2011-07-29T07:02:00.001+08:00

Nice article for reading.

If gold were simply bought for its industrial use things would be much simpler...

IS GOLD money? Or is it a commodity? asks Julian Phillips of GoldForecaster.

If gold is a commodity then it rises and falls as a result of the ebb-and-flow of the economies that use it. If so, it will move in synch with the financial markets cycles and remain subject to their dominance. But when it comes to gold and silver, nothing is that simple!

If the bulk of the demand for a commodity is contracted to buyers, then the only influence these contracts have on the price of the commodity is through the referencing of that supply to the market price.
The supply of the metal in the open market outside of contracted amounts is the quantity of that metal that determines the price of the metal. Call it the 'marginal' demand or supply. This supply is sent to the open market for buying by non-contracted buyers. It could be just to top up for unforeseen demand, or it could be to sell overbought amounts. This determines the liquidity of the market.

On top of that, speculators frequently enter the market taking a view on demand and supply expectations, taking off supplies to force prices higher or introducing them, to force prices lower. In a pure commodity market, these views are based on industrial demand/supply expectations.

But gold is not so simple or predictable. Most buyers of gold do not Buy Gold for its industrial use. Where it is used in industry it is done so for hi-tech purposes, which is relatively price-insensitive. So the price of gold has little bearing on the demand from industry.

Gold is used to decorate people in its Western jewelry application. There is little sense of showing off the extent of your wealth when wearing gold in the West. Additions of jewels and artistic presentations add so much to the cost of such jewelry that the price of gold in such jewelry is a minor factor. This type of jewelry demand does fluctuate with the state of an economy, but such demand is a small component of the gold market.

In the past it has been an influential one, particularly before the eastern markets 'emerged'. Add to this the determination of the jewelry trade to extend Buying Gold down to poorer people's levels by lowering the purity of the gold sold. This increased the vulnerability of the Gold Price to the state of the developed world economies. Such demand became the 'swing' factor in the Gold Price.

This too was at a time when central banks were not only out of the gold markets but encouraging a heavy increase in supply. As a result, analysts' studies placed great emphasis on western jewelry demand.
Then at the turn of the century, the gold market changed its shape. Asian markets 'emerged'. The driving force behind their buying was totally different to western attitudes. They followed the maxim, "One buys gold, not to make money, but because one has money."

The gold bought was nearly pure. It was bought because it was treated as money and money of a higher quality than currencies. When used in jewelry, it was a statement of the financial security of the wearer. Nothing could be more different than the Western view of jewelry. Central banks changed their attitudes to holding and selling gold then too.

These structural changes altered the dynamics of the gold markets. Over time, investment demand grew to become by far the greatest source of demand for gold. In addition, central bank-inspired supplies (through their encouragement of increased supplies) stopped and gold producers became a source of demand. This happened for a while as they bought back previously sold gold. Central banks cut back on their supplies to the market until they stopped selling and other central banks began buying.

But more was changing in the gold markets. As the ability of currencies to give an accurate measure of monetary values decayed, gold began to fill the hole they left. This aspect of value grew to the point that the Robert Zoellick, head of the World Bank suggested that gold be used as a reference for value measurement. The concept has taken hold again, but as a banker, Mr. Zoellick has remained silent since then. His silence, while deafening, has reaffirmed gold's inherent value. After all, as Alan Greenspan, the most famous Fed Chairman said, 'Gold is money in extreme times'.

Its monetary value lies in its remarkable quality of being both an asset and liquid cash, globally and in all circumstances.

Currencies can't be this. They remain the obligations of one nation or another, dependent entirely on the reputation of the nation printing them. Gold is considered money, without the strings that are attached to national money. Investors from central bankers to Indian or Chinese rural farmers believe that gold is a counter to unbacked currencies issued, at will, by national governments all over the world.

Gold has no nation.

It carries nobody's obligations.

It's what enemies will accept from each other.

The concept of consuming gold is no longer a part of this gold world. These structural changes cut gold off from being just a commodity.

Gold is not a commodity!

Julian D.W. Phillips, 21 Jul '11

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Why I was laughing at DRBHICOM technical analysis report?

2011-07-27T11:38:00.001+08:00

I saw a DRB Hicom technical analysis on 26/07/2011. I can't help, but laughing.

On 25/07/2011 DRB Hicom was down about RM0.30 to RM1.95 in the last minute of pre closing. The Edge said got error trade. Some blogs said they do it on purpose. But I interpret that both will expect it to trade at about RM0.30 higher on the next day.

But the next day, there was one technical analysis report, purely based on technical analysis and commented on DRBHICOM.

1) It said DRB Hicom was under strong selling pressure and have a long black candle.
2) DRB Hicom broke many of the support level
3).... this is the best part... The analyst expect DRBHicom share price to continue falling due to strong selling pressure and bearish signs....
4) Other comments include "avoid this stock", sell at RM2.00.

What happen? The next day DRBHicom up RM0.29 to RM2.24 ! ! ! ! !

I am not criticising technical analysis. But I feel that a bit of common sense is needed here.

Purely based on technical analysis, the analysis was RIGHT. But if add a bit of common sense, the RM0.30 drop may be an exceptional case.

I want to clarify that I am not good in technical analysis and it is just an opinion.

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Why the US Stock Markets Did Not Crash

2011-07-26T23:26:00.000+08:00

With the U.S. closer to default, I was wondering why the Stock Market didn't crash. I found one article quite interesting. Not sure how true but he got some points.

----------
Over the weekend, both President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner insisted a deal needed to be completed before the Asian markets opened on Sunday afternoon New York time. Of course, the Asian markets greeted the lack of resolution with a collective shrug, as did the U.S. markets. On Monday, things only got worse, with a day of backbiting culminating in dueling prime-time speeches. And yet on Tuesday morning in New York, stock futures were up (although the market open mixed, with the Dow dragging close to 50 points) and the 10-year bond was trading at 3.00. Does that look like an impending crisis to you?
Many of my colleagues in the financial-political press seem to think we are about to see a repeat of the fall of 2008. Back then, amid market turmoil, the first Congressional vote on the TARP failed. But the horrific market reaction forced Congress to swiftly reconsider. The conventional wisdom holds that market turmoil forced Congress and the White House to bite the bullet and pass necessary, unpopular legislation. The presumption today is that only such market forces —- carnage in the bond market, a crash in the stock market, the hammer of a a credit agency downgrade -- will make Democrats and Republicans come together and strike a deal.

Don't hold your breath.

We're not supposed to say that it is different this time, but it is different this time. The 'markets,' to the degree that they have a mind, seem not to be too troubled by the debt-ceiling brinksmanship. Back in the 1990s, the common notion in Washington, popularized by Clinton adviser Robert Rubin and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, was that the bond market is like a crowd at a Roman gladiator match, signaling approval or disapproval of fiscal policy on a daily basis. But it clearly no longer serves that function.

Despite the hand-wringing about American decline and the constant refrain that the U.S. is the next Greece, the bond markets remain remarkably permissive. The U.S. government is currently borrowing for 10 years at almost exactly 3 percent, an extraordinarily low rate that is within spitting distance of a historic low. Look at the chart from the past six months. The Federal Reserve has stopped buying bonds, the political stalemate has worsened, inflation hasn't disappeared. And yet interest rates are contained. Why? As John Tamny and I discuss in the accompanying video, nobody really believes the U.S. government is going to default, even if it pierces the debt ceiling next week.

Nobody believes that the 10-year and 30-year bonds are not money good — i.e. they won't be paid off on time. This is emphatically not like the Lehman Brothers situation, when the world woke up one Monday and realized that $650 billion in debt was likely to be settled for pennies on the dollar. The government has revenues, and it has plenty of other people to stiff before it stiffs bondholders. In a time of turmoil and crisis, even when the crisis is over whether the government will pay its debts, the U.S. Treasury market is a safe haven. So don't look for it to be the fiscal enforcer.

As for the credit ratings, again, don't hold your breath. It would be an exceedingly bold move for S&P and Moody's to downgrade the U.S. sovereign credit rating. And, generally, these firms only act on sovereign credits after the market has made them look like chumps by driving up interest rates. If there has been a time in history when S&P downgraded a sovereign credit that was borrowing for 10 years at 3 percent, I'm not aware of it. Despite their desire to get ahead of the curve, the ratings agencies won't act until well after the market does.

What about the stock markets? Here, too, people hoping that a swift downdraft will spur action are likely to be disappointed. It's an enduring truism that the Dow and S&P 500, and indeed the global markets, are some barometer of opinion about how the U.S. is doing. That made sense in the late 1990s, when the U.S. represented about one-third of the global economy and its stock markets represented about 50 percent of global stock market capitalization.

While the U.S. is still the world's largest economy, global markets don't care so much about what happens here as they used to. Assuming the debt brinksmanship leads to a slowdown in U.S. growth, it won't put much of a crimp in Asian stock markets. The U.S. today is about 25 or 26 percent of the global economy and, more important, accounts for only a small sliver of the world's growth. As the rest of the world trades more with each other and less with the U.S., America has less ability to impact the trajectory of global growth. And if you believe the markets are rational and constantly factor in known data, well, sluggish U.S. growth and political dysfunction aren't exactly news.

Perhaps it is more surprising that the U.S. stock market has held up well in the face of this brinksmanship. And indeed, it's more likely that effects of a stalemate would be felt in the stock market than the bond market. Why? Huge deficit cuts, and a suspension of delay in the payment of salaries, benefits and entitlements would contribute to a demand shock, slowing growth (good for bonds, bad for stocks.) It could be that stock investors aren't watching cable news 24/7. But here, again, there's a sense that Washington, and even the U.S. economy, matters less and less with each passing day. Consider this: The typical member of the S&P 500 already gets about half of its revenues (and probably most or all of its growth) from overseas. The bigger the company, the less tethered to the U.S. Consider Intel, McDonald's, Coca-Cola, Apple; their earnings reports show that they are being driven by growth overseas.

If Washington is going to act on the debt ceiling and the long-term deficit, it will have to do so out of its own volition and sense of responsibility —- and not because of the savage demands of the credit and stock markets. Get ready for a few more weeks of brinksmanship.

Daniel Gross is economics editor at Yahoo! Finance.

-------------------

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What to do if US default its debt?

2011-07-26T11:19:00.065+08:00

What to do if US default its debt?

There are debate whether US will default its loan. Let us assume US default the debt and what will happen and what can we do.

This is more of a case study and I may be wrong.

US Dollar will drop.
Short US currency, buy gold, Sell US stock (not because of the poor earnings, but because of currency exchange). Short Dow Jones Index. Buy Dow Jones put option.

World Stock Markets will crash
Sell Futures index. Buy Put Option. Sell stocks.

Interest Rate will goes up, I think in Malaysia also.
Invest in Interest rate futures.
Property prices will drop, sell property.
If got extra money, buy back property when the price is very low, it may rebound sharply when the value of money drop.

Food and Gold price will goes up.
Buy food and store. Buy gold.

Economy not good due to rising interest rate and low demand
Sell Futures. Buy Put Option. Sell stocks.

World Central Bank start to sell foreign currency (especially US Dollar) and keep gold as reserve.
Buy Gold.

After X years, the market will be at bottom.
If you are still not a bankrupt and got money, buy shares, buy Futures Index, buy call option.

NOTE ! ! !
The above is for case study. I probably be wrong because I'm not good in economics. In economics, it is very hard to proof whether it is right or wrong. If Malaysia inflation is at 3%, how to proof?

I was wrong in 2008 when US was having subprime crisis. I thought US Dollar will go down, but it didn't. It went up, because many US companies recalled back the money invested in foreign countries back to US to help them survive in the weak US market business.

I schedule it to be posted the next morning. Maybe at the time of posting, Obama may have already strike the deal to increase the debt ceiling.

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Armageddon (end time) in world stock market on 2 August 2011?

2011-07-25T19:49:00.001+08:00

In some religions, Armageddon refers to the site of a battle during the end times. Will that happen on 2 August 2011 and the whole world stock market crash, including Bursa Malaysia Stock Market?

The U.S. borrowing limit, currently at 14.29 trillion U.S. dollars, and if by 2 Aug 2011 the US President Obama still unable to convince the US politicians to approve the increase of the ceiling limit, this will cause US to default its loan. After few tries, Obama still fail. Why so serious and the politicians may not want to approve it? The reason is Politics.

I’m not so good at economics. Extract some articles for your reading pleasure.

-----------------------------------

Pacific Investment Management Co. LLC Chief Executive Officer Mohamed El-Erian said a short-term default by the U.S. on its debt might have “catastrophic” legal consequences.

“We would be in the land of the unpredictable” if lawmakers fail to reach an agreement to raise the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling and the U.S. misses a payment “simply because of the technical linkages,” El-Erian said in an interview on CNN’s “Fareed Zakaria GPS” program, scheduled to air today.

U.S. lawmakers are seeking a path to increasing the debt limit and to cutting at least $1 trillion from the long-term deficit before an Aug. 2 deadline. President Barack Obama plans to hold separate meetings at the White House June 27 with Senate leaders Nevada Democrat Harry Reid and Kentucky Republican Mitch McConnell in an effort to break an impasse that scuttled a seven-week negotiating effort led by Vice President Joe Biden.

“My advice is please try and get together and solve this issue in the context of a medium-term reform package,” El-Erian said. “If you can’t do that and you’re going to kick the can down the road, kick the can rather than face something that could be catastrophic in terms of legal contracts being triggered.”

Pimco, the world’s biggest manager of bond funds, sees more value in non-U.S. government bonds than U.S. Treasuries as the Federal Reserve prepares to end its $600 billion bond-repurchase program this month, El-Erian said. Pimco, of Newport Beach, California, is a unit of the Munich-based insurer Allianz SE. (ALV)

“A basic rule as an investor is don’t buy something unless you know who else is going to be buying,” he said. “So when we look at Treasuries, we see the big buyer stepping away from the market, for certain. And we ask the question, who else is going to be buying at these levels, and we can’t identify another buyer of the size of the Fed.”

El-Erian said the U.S. fiscal problems are dwarfed by those of Greece, whose debt reached 143 percent of gross domestic product last year.

“It is inevitable that Greece would have to restructure its debt,” he said. “Greece has two problems: it has too much debt and it cannot grow. And until these problems are solved, more and more of Europe is going to become contaminated.”

Europe has been treating Greece “not as a solvency issue, but as a liquidity problem,” El-Erian said. “We had a massive bailout a year ago in Greece, massive. A year later, every single indicator in Greece is worse off.”

-- With assistance from Heidi Przybyla, Julianna Goldman, Cheyenne Hopkins and Ian Katz in Washington. Editors: Ann Hughey, Christian Thompson.

Source:bloomberg.com/news

-----------------------

Republicans and Democrats have reached an impasse in an escalating ideological battle over raising the US debt ceiling, with the rating agency Moody's threatening to downgrade Washington's credit worthiness if the two sides fail to find a compromise by August 2 - a move that could destabilize the global economy.

"It's the foundation of our financial system," US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said during a recent congressional hearing. "The notion that it would become suddenly unreliable and illiquid would throw shock waves through the entire global financial system."

Tax increases versus spending cuts

Both political parties agree in principle that the US must increase its $14.29 trillion (9.8 trillion euros) debt ceiling in order to continue paying its bills and avoid a short-term default on its financial obligations. Negotiations, however, have reached a stalemate due to a partisan divide over the appropriate balance between taxes and spending cuts.

Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: Democrats like Nancy Pelosi are reluctant to cut spending

Republicans have preconditioned any debt limit increase on parallel cuts in spending while at the same time rejecting tax increases across the board. Democrats, meanwhile, have been reluctant to make cuts in social programs such as Medicare and Medicaid that could alienate their electoral base, proposing instead to raise taxes on wealthier Americans.

Republican House Speaker John Boehner and President Obama appeared on track to bridge the divide through a "grand bargain" that would have included a $3 trillion reduction in spending and $1 trillion in tax increases. Rank-and-file Republicans led by House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, however, rejected the deal due to the tax hikes.

In lieu of the politically risky "grand bargain," Cantor reportedly called for a short-term solution rooted in spending cuts. Cantor's proposal prompted Obama to dig in his heels against Republican demands in what has become a volatile game of political brinkmanship.

"The problem is that there is no party discipline," Josef Braml, an expert on American politics at the German Council on Foreign Relations, told Deutsche Welle.

"Obama can't get his liberals on board. On the other side, it's difficult for Republicans to get the Tea Party guys involved because they would commit electoral suicide if they agreed to tax increases."

Domestic dangers

Christian Lammert, an expert on US domestic politics, says that while fiscally conservative Tea Party Republicans stubbornly reject tax increases, many progressive Democrats are adamant in their opposition to cuts in social programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.

"That's the third rail of American politics," Lammert, with the John F. Kennedy Institute at the Free University of Berlin, told Deutsche Welle.

"If you touch it, this is political suicide especially for the Democratic Party. There is a lot of opposition within the party, especially in the progressive wing that will not support any deal between Obama and the Republicans that will be about such huge spending cuts."

Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: The fiscally conservative Tea Party has become a powerful force in Congress

According to Lammert, the US ultimately has no choice but to implement both tax increases and spending cuts in order to gain control over its $14 trillion national debt, regardless of what the ideological predispositions of the far-right and far-left prescribe.

Such measures, however, remain difficult to implement because they place new burdens on an American public still reeling from high unemployment, stagnant wages and low savings.

"The income inequality is rising in the United States to a level that the United States has not known since the New Deal and this will be a problem if this gap widens and the poverty rates go up," Lammert said.

"It's just a question of time until this gets [to be] so huge a problem that there might be some forms of social unrest."

No longer a 'safe haven'

Not only has the weary American voter lost patience with Capitol Hill, but the international community is also beginning to challenge Washington's economic policy. Moody Investor's Service has placed America's AAA credit rating on review for a possible downgrade.

Such a move would be "extremely painful" for the US, said Jacob Kirkegaard from the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. The US market for government bonds is, after all, not just some exchange, but rather the safe haven for investors worldwide, he said.

"The problem is that when you lose the status of 'safe haven' - which inevitably occurs with a downgrade - interest rates rise over a longer period of time," Kirkegaard said. It could take decades for the situation to normalize again.

In addition, the US would have to work hard to regain the trust it wilfully put at stake, he said.

"The US is not bankrupt, we aren't Greece," Kirkegaard said. The blame lies elsewhere: "A political system in America that is unfortunately unable or reluctant to raise the funds necessary for the style of government we want." This does not only apply to domestic policies, but also the global role of the US, he said. International commitment costs money.

According to Lammert, a downgrade would make it even harder for the US to get new credit.

"This will not help the economic recovery," he said. "This will mean a rise in unemployment and that's the major problem right now for the United States."

Global fallout

Washington's creditors in Asia have also begun to speak more forcefully as they worry that their own national interests are at risk in a system that appears unable to resolve its own problems.

"We hope the US government adopts responsible policy and measures to ensure the interests of investors," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said recently.

The consequences of a US default are difficult to predict, although borrowing costs would certainly increase, putting even more pressure on an ailing American economy that still stands at the center of the global financial system.

"You can never tell where sheep are running," Braml said. "If it was true that markets are rational you could predict it, but we all know that the markets are anything but rational."

Authors: Spencer Kimball (Reuters, AFP), Christina Bergmann, Washington DC

Editor: Rob Mudge

Source:dw-world.de

-----------------------

New chief of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Christine Lagarde said Sunday that there would be "real nasty consequences" for global economy if the United States defaulted on its financial obligations.

Lagarde, who took the post of the IMF managing director on July 5, said in an interview with the U.S. media that the default would cause interest rate hikes and stock market falls across the world.

Her comments came at a moment when the White House and Republicans are intensively involved in deficit reduction and debt limit talks.

The U.S. borrowing limit, currently at 14.29 trillion U.S. dollars by Aug. 2, was reached on May 16.

The U.S. Treasury Department said the United States would begin to default if there was not an agreement to lift the limit before the Aug. 2 deadline.

"If you draw out the entire scenario of default, yes, of course, you have all of that -- interest hikes, stock markets taking a huge hit and real nasty consequences, not just for the United States, but for the entire global economy, because the U.S. is such a big player and matters so much for other countries," said Lagarde, former French finance minister and the first female head of the 187-member international financial institution.

On July 6, Lagarde said sovereign debt challenges were threatening a broad range of advanced economies, not only many European countries, but Japan and the United States

Souce:http://news.xinhuanet.com

-----------------------

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52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market - Part 20/52 - Free Vouchers

2011-07-23T16:43:00.000+08:00

Free Voucher

Some companies give free voucher to their shareholders when they post out the annual report. The popular one is Genting where you get free nights stay in Genting. Some companies give you discount coupon or voucher and some give you coupon that you can redeem their products. Products range from food, hotel, travel, health products, etc.

RISKS, LIMITATIONS OR DIFFICULTIES:

Only some companies give out vouchers. The vouchers may not be useful to you. Eg some received many Genting vouchers but for many years also didn’t use it.

I notice that the vouchers are getting lesser and lesser. Eg past few years Genting have been cutting down the vouchers.

MY OPINION:

This is just an extra benefit.

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My Fund Performance Update (up 31.90%++)

2011-07-21T20:16:00.000+08:00

6 months

KLCI up 3.95%

My Fund 10.26% + 1.5% (charges) + 0.75% (management fee) = 12.5%

12 Months

KLCI 20.15%

My Fund 31.90% + 2.5% (charges) + 1.5% (management fee) = 35.9%

You will be asking why I need to add back the charges and management fee?

The charges and fees were deducted from my Fund, and I think it is only fair that I add back for comparison purposes with KLCI.

If you think that I should not add back, then you can use the net 10.26% or the 31.9%.

I’m quite happy that I can still outperform the Bursa Malaysia KLCI, even I made few bad decisions. I have checked with some investor friends, due to Japan earthquake (Tsunami plus nuclear leak) and Middle East political crisis, they said for the past 6 months have been very tough for them and about one third of them were having losses. Some perform better than me, of course.

This month my fund already see red. I saw a statement few months ago in which I agreed to it. The statement says the Fund that have higher gain may drop more during bear market. I hope that will not apply to me. I know during bear market, I will suffer losses and probably may perform worse than KLCI. But hopefully will not that bad. Maybe KLCI drop 10%, I hope mine will drop less than 10% or worst case 15%.

My objective is simple, that is to beat KLCI in every three years performance and have a much better return that FD.

Will update every 6 months.

Note:

Please note that I am having difficulties in trading in my fund and this is not the only fund that I have.

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52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market - Part 19/52 - Invest in hints or Leads

2011-07-20T20:35:00.000+08:00

Hints or Leads

Certain happening will trigger some counters to go up. Eg if mother shares go up sharply, then the warrant will also goes up. If Genting

Singapore

goes up sharply, then Genting probably will also go up. If Genting Singapore comes down sharply, then Genting may also come down.

If you see the mother share go up sharply, then buy the warrant if not yet go up.

Another example is if a counter price jump up sharply, you may want to know whether the shareholders are public listed company. Example Parkway Holdings Limited was up sharply due to takeover offer. If you check out the shareholders list, you may found out that Keck Seng is one of the shareholders. True enough, Keck Seng later went up.

Examples of Leads/ Hints are:

Mother share – monitor the warrants

CPO price – Monitor the plantation counters

Sharp price increase- Monitor the public listed shareholders or common shareholders.

US Dollar Up – Export oriented company will benefit

China

President in Malaysia –

China

stock may go up

A stock goes up sharply, the same industry stocks may go up.

Projects – Who will benefit

Politician promoted – Any stocks relate to him?
Current government may be voted out - what stock to sell

RISKS, LIMITATIONS OR DIFFICULTIES:

Not that easy. Talk is easy but practical is tough. The stocks may not necessary go up. Furthermore, these stocks may not be good in fundamental and you may also not so familiar with these stocks.

OPINION:

This need quick thinking and knowledge. If interested, discuss with friends and start to analyze and do paper trading to learn.

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How to make 130% Return from this bear market

2011-07-19T07:12:00.001+08:00

If you interested to make 130% return from this bear market in Bursa Malaysia Stock Market, what you need to do is to predict correctly 5% of the direction of KLCI. Then you buy one lot of FKLI (The Futures Index of KLCI).

1 lot of FKLI is <RM3,000.
One point is RM50

Assuming you Sell one lot of FKLI at 1560, hoping KLCI will crash.
You pay RM3000.
Now one lot is less than RM3000 but you pay extra just to buffer for KLCI few points up.
If the FKLI drop 5% within one month, then you make 78 points.
78 points X RM50 = RM3,900.

Your profit is RM3900

RM3900 over your investment of RM3000 is 130%.

So easy right?

But will FKLI drop 5%? If it drop less than 5%, you still make profit, but less.
But what if the FKLI goes up? Then you lose money.
Very simple.

Am I investing? No. Because I don't know market is going up or down.

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Point of Sale in Bursa Malaysia Stock Market

2011-07-18T07:50:00.001+08:00

I will explain what is Point of Sale, then I will connect it to Bursa Malaysia Stock Market.

Point of Sale (POS), some people also call it Point of Purchase (POP), is the location where the transaction occurs. Survey shown that a high percentage of buying decision is made at the Point of Sale. We decided to buy Coke at home, but we ended up buying Pepsi because we changed our mind in the hypermarket.

Examples, we already decided and wanted to buy iPhone. Then when we arrive at the phone shop listening to the salesman promoting the Samsung Galaxy, and we ended up buying the Samsung Galaxy.

We already put the Enfagrow baby milk powder in our trolley, then there is this Mamil baby milk promoter promoting the goodness of Mamil. So, we change our mind, take out the Enfagrow and put in the Mamil.

Point of Sale or Point of Purchase is very important in Bursa Malaysia Stock Market. Where is the Point of Sale in stock market? It is at the location of the transaction. It can be during the phone call with remisier or dealer. It can be when we click on the online trading. It can be any other places that the transaction occurs.

Example, we have decided to buy CBSA stock. We call the remisier and said we want to buy. The remisier said “market sentiment really bad, US economy not so good, Euro debt problem, etc”. Therefore, we change our mind and we didn’t buy.

We may decided to sell Turiya stock. But when we log into our online stock trading system and we saw Turiya shares went uo 4%, we change our mind and decided to hold back.

We may call the remisier to ask him to buy GLBhd stock. But the remisier or the dealer told us SOP stock is better in terms of PE ratio or growth. So we ended up buying SOP shares.

What is the Implication of Point of Sale in Bursa Malaysia Stock Market?

1) You need to find a good remisier or dealer. He or she can give us good advice and give us enough information for us to make decision.

2) We must not deviate too much from our original strategy when we change our mind. If you have decided to buy, and after seeing the stock price dropped 4% and you decided not to buy. Why? Now is 4% cheaper and you decided not to buy? Why you wanted to buy at the first place? Fundamental or technical? Do not change your mind too frequent. Reassess your decision.

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Shares Change of Name with old stock name and new stock name in Bursa Malaysia

2011-07-16T23:03:00.006+08:00

PETRA PERDANA BERHAD old stock name change to new PERDANA PETROLEUM BERHAD stock name. The Perdana shares stock code remain unchanged, 7108.

APP INDUSTRIES BERHAD APP PFCE BERHAD PFCE

MUTIARA GOODYEAR DEVELOPMENT BERHAD stock change to NADAYU PROPERTIES BERHAD
Stock short name changed from Mutiara to NADAYU stock.

ASIAEP BERHAD changed to ASIAEP RESOURCES BERHAD.

LEBAR DAUN BERHAD, the old stock short name is LDAUN.
The new name is LEBTECH BERHAD and the short name is LEBTECH.

APP INDUSTRIES BERHAD (APP) changed name to PFCE BERHAD (PFCE)

Seacera Tiles Berhad changed to Seacera Group Berhad

For other changes in Name, you can click on my link here.
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Bumi Armada IPO fixes institutional price and public portion oversubscribed by 9.5 times

2011-07-16T10:44:00.000+08:00

Bumi Armada Bhd's institutional price under its initial public offering (IPO) was fixed at RM3.03 per share after the completion of the bookbuilding process. The offshore oil and gas services provider stated that the final retail price was fixed at RM3.03 per share.

The company will refund the 12 sen difference between the final retail price and the retail price of RM3.15 per issue share, within 10 market days from the date of the final ballot of the applications.
The retail offering closed on July 7.

------------------------------

Bumi Armada Bhd's initial public offering (IPO) has been oversubscribed by 9.5 times.
The oil and gas services provider, en route to a listing on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia on July 21, 2011, said it received 57,941 applications for 614.632 million shares for its public tranche of 58.569
million shares.

It said the retail, institutional, cornerstone and Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) tranches of the IPO were priced at RM3.03 per share. The market capitalisation of the company at RM3.03 per share would be approximately RM8.9 billion, it added.

The IPO comprised 878.538 million ordinary shares or 30 per cent of Bumi Armada, of which 22 per cent were primary shares offered by the company and eight per cent were secondary shares offered by certain existing shareholders.

The total amount of funds raised through the IPO was RM2.7 billion, of which RM2 billion was raised by the company. The IPO is the largest public offering in Malaysia and the second largest in South East Asia, thus far this year.

The company also secured cornerstone investors for its institutional offering, namely Great Eastern Life Assurance (Malaysia) Bhd, Permodalan Nasional Bhd, HwangDBS Investment Management Bhd, Prudential Fund Management Bhd, Hong Leong Assurance Bhd, Guoline Capital Ltd and Asia
Fountain Investment Company Ltd which had agreed to purchase an aggregate of 300 million
shares, representing approximately 10.2 per cent of the company.

Souce: Bernama, The Star, Business Times.

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52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market - Part 18/52 - Invest in New Product in Stock Market

2011-07-15T07:35:00.001+08:00

New Product in Stock Market

Whenever there is a new product by Bursa

Malaysia

, there may be an opportunity. How?

I can recall there was this Mesdaq (now is called ACE Market) counters offered by Bursa. Initially it was totally very different in terms of buying and selling. Most remisier cannot key in Mesdaq counters. If you want to buy, you may need a separate account or extra forms. The remisier have to fill up forms and this and that, so troublesome. Everyday the volume is like few lots a day or even zero. There were only few Mesdaq counters. Bursa Malaysia (was called KLSE) announced that the Mesdaq will be merged with all other KLSE stocks. So, later remisiers will be able to key in the buy sell just like other stocks.

I was thinking, after it merged, so easy to buy sell, sure people will play these Mesdaq counters and it will jump. Yes, true enough, after merged, these Mesdaq counters jumped.

Guess what? I was a NATO member. No Action Talk Only. I didn’t manage to open the account to trade in Mesdaq before it merge.

Another incident is Bursa Malaysia launched the Option product in Futures and Derivatives market. I was thinking, in

Malaysia

, only few people know how Option works. So, sure got a lot of people make mistake and I can benefit from it.

When Option is launched by Bursa

Malaysia

, true enough the price is like crazy, up sharply and down sharply.

Guess what? I was also a NATO member. I actually forgot about the launching date. Then the second day or the third day I went to put in orders, only got few buying or selling. Whole day only very small quantity done. After a while, this Option market is dead and disappeared.

Actually Option is a very good product. But in Malaysia, people just don’t understand how Option work. It is very difficult to explain to others.

RISKS, LIMITATIONS OR DIFFICULTIES:

You may know what is happening or how to make money, but may not take action.

OPINION

Good opportunity during launching. You need someone to discuss with you, to explore opportunity, to remind each other or to motivate each other.

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TSH has 123,385 ha forestry management unit (FMU) land in Sabah = RM0.33 per share?

2011-07-14T07:35:00.053+08:00

Brokers that recommed to buy TSH.
MIDF – Buy
Hwang- Buy
Maybank – Buy
KAF- Buy
Philip Capital- Buy
OSK- Buy

Besides the 100,000 ha of oil palm land (most are still unplanted), TSH has 123,385 ha of forest management unit (FMU) land in Sabah, on which the company plans to plant rubber covering an additional 8k ha.

I don't know what is FMU. Let us see what OSK say.

Source: OSK
As rubber is recognised as a timber species under the FMU programme, TSH could potentially plant a larger proportion of the FMU land with rubber trees. TSH was awarded with a 100-year concession in 1997 to carry out forest rehabilitation, environmental conservation and industrial tree planting on 123,385 ha of
forestry land in Ulu Tungud, Sabah. Currently, it has 2,121 ha of rubber planted area and plans to plant up to
8,000 ha of its FMU land with rubber. As the FMU program recognizes rubber as a timber species, TSH can actually plant a bigger proportion of the FMU land with rubber. That said, the company’s rubber trees are currently immature and have yet to start producing.

Assuming a value of RM15k per acre for its planted immature rubber and RM7.5k per acre for unplanted rubber land, we value the company’s total rubber area at RM0.33 per share.

Source: OSK.
----------------------

Most of other research papers didn't really touch on the rubber. Based on the conservative valuation by OSK, we may add RM0.33 into TSH fair value if the analysts have not factor in the rubber land value.

OSK didn't not mention anything about Wakuba, not sure whether they have factor in the potential of Wakuba or not. Most analysts also did not factor in the potential of TSH Wakuba ramet that has potential to increase the yield. Depending on where the trees are planted and the age profile, on an average basis, I think the Wakuba can increase 30% of the yield.

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PRESBHD IPO share price target fair value

2011-07-13T07:29:00.000+08:00

Too many IPO, no time to think. Market also not so good. Do a quick one.

2010,2011,2012
Prestariang PE ratio, 13.4x, 7.1x, 5.5x
Growth 102%, 86%, 27%
Net gearing nil, net cash
Prestariang dividend yield 7.1%

Prestariang dividend policy is 50% payout ratio for the next 3 years.

Above figures from TA Securities, Prestariang target price of RM0.98 based on 6x FY12 EPS of
16.3sen. The 6x PER represents a 50% discount to TA average technology sector PER of 12x which they believe is fair due to 1) its small market capitalization 2)conservative business model that merely focuses on government contracts 3) high proportion of offer for sale that cast doubt about management’s confidence in sustainable business. It offers a capital potential of approximately 9%. As such, TA recommend investors not to subscribe to Prestariang.

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Peterlabs Holdings IPO Share price target fair value

2011-07-13T00:26:00.000+08:00

Too many IPO, let us do a quick one.

2010, 2011, 2012
Peterlabs PE ratio 9.5x, 7.5x, 6.13x
Growth 31%, 27%, 22%
Peterlabs net Gearing 0.22
Peterlabs dividend yield about 4%.

Peterlabs does not have any formal dividend policy. In the future, dividend payout ratio of about 30% may be posible.

The above figures are by TA Securities, with Peterlabs fair value at RM0.29. Using a FY12 target PER of 6x, being a trailing 3‐year average PER for peer SCC, TA derive a fair value of RM0.29/share for Peterlabs. Given the potential downside risk, TA recommend investors NOT TO SUBSCRIBE to the IPO.

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Hibicus Petroleum IPO share price target fair value

2011-07-12T23:59:00.000+08:00

Actually why are we asking for the target price of Hibiscus stock? Hibiscus Petroleum is the first “Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC)” in Bursa Malaysia. SPACs means they have no operations or no income-generating business. With the IPO money, they will buy other companies or business. They propose to buy oil and gas with E&P assets business.

So, tell me, how to value this company? How much will they be paying for the new business will be a major factor. It is an unknown to us.

In the Hibisbs IPO, they are also given a free warrant for each share. Expiry 3 years. Hibiscus warrant exercise price is RM0.50.

The independent directors and management also will get warrants but will be unlisted and the exercise price is RM0.10. Why don't they called it ESOS.

This is new to me and I really can't imagine the Hibisbs IPO share price fair value.

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Philip Capital says buy TSH Resources Bhd

2011-07-12T07:27:00.000+08:00

In its report dated 30 June 2011, Philip Capital says they are convinced that TSH will have strong growth due to the significant increase in production expected from the 67% of maturing oil palms over the next 3 years.

Points given are:

1)The average FFB yield will increase from current 22 mt to at least 25 mt when another 15,023 ha from Kalimantan mature over the next 3 years.

2)The maturing oil palm is almost 5 times of the size of mature area at present (I think probably added in the associate company).

The FFB production is expected to grow at CAGR of 41%. TSH will have a big jump in income in coming years.

3)Huge Land Bank To Sustain Growth

TSH’s 61% unplanted area is probably the highest in the industry.

4)TSH is very cost efficient

EBITDA per mature ha of approximately RM10k which is the highest among the selected peers.

5) 4k to 5k Ha of New Planting Per year

TSH has committed new planting of 4 -5k ha every year. If plant 4.5k ha per year for the next 4 years, the planted area will reach 47,606 ha by FY2014 which is almost double of current size. This will help sustain the earnings growth in the future.

6) May Sell Ekowood

TSH management commented that they may dispose of loss making wood company Ekowood in near future. This will be positive.

7) Rubber may be another catalyst

TSH was awarded a 100-year concession to carry out forest rehabilitation and industrial tree planting of 123k ha of forest in Ulu Tungud, Sabah. The company has planted 1,649 ha of rubber trees and plans to plant 1-1.5k ha per year for the next 3 years. However, the management has no intention to grow this segment aggressively but to focus on oil palm at this juncture.

Philip Capital has made few comparisons between TSH with other similar size plantation company, IJM Plantation, Hap Seng Plantation, SOP, TH Plant

Unplanted Land

TSH (61%), IJMPlnt(22%), SOP (19%), HSPlant (11%), THPlant (1%)

With highest % of unplanted land, TSH has more potential to sustain the growth when more land are planted.

Immature Plant

TSH (67%), SOP (43%),TH Plant (40%), IJMPlnt (23%), Hap Seng Plant (9%).

With highest % of immature plant, TSH FFB production will grow at a higher rate when more palms come into maturity.

EBITDA/ mature ha (RM)

TSH (10,121), TH Plant (8,402), Hang Seng Plant (7,860), SOP (7,601), IJM Plant (2,037)

TSH is very cost efficient

Few days ago I also put up an article on TSH, that Maybank just initiated coverage on TSH with a Buy call.

For more info on TSH

http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/TSH

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52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market - Part 17/52 - Invest in Old News

2011-07-11T09:34:00.000+08:00

Sometimes a news have been announced but have not implemented yet. Many people will tend to forget about the news. I remember there was this counter the price drop to $0.305, but the company had announced that they are giving back $0.30 capital repayment and continue to stay listed. If we buy the stock, and get back the capital repayment, then our cost is just $0.005 (the lowest price a stock can trade is $0.005). What happened was after they announced the payment date, the price shoot up to around $0.355.

Sometimes the news will come out again and the stock start goes up again. Example, ABC counter price jump because newspaper said they may be subject to a take over. After a while, due to bad market sentiment the price drop, but we have forgotten on the news. Then the news or rumour was announced again, the price jump again.

Some of the company projects may take times. You may buy before they make any announcement because normally share prices go up before announcement.

RISKS, LIMITATIONS OR DIFFICULTIES:
The risk is the proposed project may not materialized or take longer time than estimated.

Timing issue. Unable to predict when the news will announce again.

Opinion.
I’m sure you have your favourite stocks. Assess what are the chances that the news will announce again. Record it down and refer again later.

For more info on 52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market…….

http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/52%20Ways%20of%20Making%20Money%20in%20Stock%20Market

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Waiting for my Google Adsense income to cross US$1,000

2011-07-10T18:36:00.000+08:00

Total accumulated Google Adsense earnings US$900.78 (RM2700).

My current monthly average is US$100 (RM300) per month.

My blog started in March 2010, and I think the whole 2010 was less than US$200.

Then beginning of 2011, monthly average was about US$60 per month.

Last few months the monthly average was US$100.

Now I am eagerly waiting for it to cross US$1,000. I think by mid of August 2011, my total online income will cross US$1,000 (RM3000).

What did I do with the income? 95% Charity. 5% I rewarded myself with Pizza.

So far I have given to orphanage, blind centre, school, drug rehab centre, etc. Although the money is not much, but I could have bought myself an iphone or blackberry and still got balance for me to have nice dinners with my family.

I hope you guys can continue to visit my blog.

To add my blog link to your blog.

http://politemarket.blogspot.com

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unmo Mati Hidup RAKYAT

2011-07-09T15:18:00.001+08:00

I have been very polite in my articles. But after seeing the Bersih news today, tears flowed out from my eyes.

1) Do you think the elections in Malaysia are fair?

2) Why najib is so impotent or not capable from stopping umno youth from demonstration today, if najib think that demonstration is illegal? Why don’t najib ask umno youth to stop from demonstration today?

3) Do you think Bersih really wants to create trouble? They are fighting for the rights of Malaysian Rakyat to have a fair election, right?

4) Do you think umno by doing demonstration today, represents the silent majority or just trying to create trouble?

I want a fair election.

umno Mati hidup RAKYAT

Maybank says buy TSH Resources Bhd Shares

2011-07-08T19:01:00.001+08:00

On 28 June 2011, Myabank initiated coverage on TSH Resources Bhd with a BUY call and TSH target price of RM3.84.

I am not surprise that Maybank have started coverage, and will also not be surprised if more brokers such as CIMB or RHB start recommending on TSH. It is a good stock to buy. Do not be concerned about TSH target price, it will be revised upward as the profits grow.

Current TSH Research Analysis that I know:
MIDF – Buy
Hwang- Buy
Maybank – Buy
KAF- Buy
Philip Capital- Buy

There are many good points given by Maybank, and I try to make it point form.

1) Young tree profile.
The average age of TSH oil palms is just 6.6 years. Among the lowest in the industry.

2) Huge unplanted land
TSH only planted about 28,000ha. More than 60% of the land is still unplanted. Probably the highest in the industry.

3)Earnings can be sustained even the CPO price dropped sharply
Due to the high growth in production, TSH can sustain the earnings even CPO price drop sharply to RM2400. But if CPO price is stable, the earnings will shoot up due to production growth.

4) Strong FFB production.
Strong 3-year forward CAGR of 20% due to more three coming into maturity
FFB production should increase from 278,800 tonnes (2010) to 481,252 (2013) representing a 73% growth. If TSH continue to plant more thees, the growth can extend to another few more years.

5) FFB yield will continue to increase
Due to average thee age of 6.6 year-old, TSH FFB yield will increase. FFB oil yield normally peak at age 11.

6) 54% of the tree are immature
Probably the the highest in the industry (except their associate company Innoprise which just started planting oil palm).

7) TSH to plant 4,000 to 5,000 ha per year
More land will be planted with trees to sustain the growth

8) Good income from other operations.
Such as milling, refining, kernel crushing, cocoa manufacturing and trading, renewable energy, biomass power, carbon credits

9) Gearing is at peak and to decline
Borrowing is reducing

What is the summary?
Sustainable growth for the next many years.

For your info, Maybank did NOT factor in the potential of Wakuba oil palm ramet.
Wakuba oil palm ramet was launched on 28 September 2010 with a promise of doubling the current oil yield. The new clone promises an oil yield of up to 10 tonnes per ha compared with the average current yield of about 4.5 tonnes per ha in the country.

In near term, TSH share price may goes up or down, very hard to predict. But if you want to hold some stocks for long term, TSH will be the stock.

More info on TSH
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/TSH

More info on Wakuba
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/2010/10/new-oil-palm-clone-set-to-double-palm.html

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Bumi Armada IPO Share Price Target Fair Value

2011-07-07T06:56:00.003+08:00

Let us look at Bumi Armada stock analysis before deciding whether to apply or subscribe the IPO.

2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 Based on Bumi Armada IPO price of RM3.15
Bumi Armada EPS RM0.16,   RM0.159,   RM0.185,   RM0.183
Growth negative 0.7% (2011),   16.1% (2012),   negative 0.9% (2013)
Bumi Armada Gearing Net 0.53
Bumi Armada Dividend Yield minimal
Source: TA with Bumi Armada fair value at RM3.29

TA Securities
We acknowledge the fact that Bumi Armada has a strong business model backed by its diversification in vessel types. Nevertheless we are advising investors NOT TO SUBSCRIBE to the IPO due primarily to valuations and a high debt level.

We benchmark Bumi Armada against its global peers namely Modec, BW Offshore and SBM Offshore. We use a FY12 target PER of 17.8x, a 20% premium to its peer average which brings us to a target price of RM3.29. We believe the premium is justified as Bumi Aramada has managed a much higher
EBITDA margin than its closest peer, BW Offshore. Furthermore local vessel players such as Perisai, Petra Perdana, Tanjung Offshore and Alam Maritim only trade between an FY12E PER of 5.9x and 9.6x. At the indicative IPO price of RM3.15, the issuance can be regarded as fleecing investors as there is not much upside.

-------------------------------------
2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 based on Bumi Armada share price of RM3.15
Bumi Armada EPS RM0.12,   RM0.15,   RM0.19,   RM0.22
Bumi Armad PE ratio 26x,   21x,   16.6x,   14.3x
Growth 26% (2011), 21% (2012), 16% (2013)
Net gearing 0.5x
dividend n/a
Forecast by HwangDBS

HwangDBS
Fair value is RM4.05, based on 22x FY12 EPS, which is the average FY12 PE multiple for big-cap O&G stocks in Malaysia. We believe that the valuation is justified given that Bumi Armada is Malaysia’s leading OSV player and sole FPSO player, and has an impressive track record with superior margins. Our projected 3-year earnings CAGR of 23% include potential contributions from FPSO projects in
India and Australia as well as from Acergy Hawk under its T&I business.

Re-rating catalyst for the industry. Bumi Armada’s listing is set to be the biggest IPO this year, raising RM2.8bn in the capital market. At RM9.2bn market cap (based on RM3.15 offer price), Bumi Armada will be the second biggest O&G stock in Malaysia after MMHE (RM13.6bn market cap).

----------------------------------------

Please note that Bumi Armada IPO price of RM 3.15 is not the final price. It will be RM3.15, or the Institutional Price after bookbuilding, whichever is lower, subject to a refund of the difference between the Final Retail Price and RM3.15 per Share.

More in on Bumi Armada
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/Bumi%20Armada
more info on recent IPO
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/IPO

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Catcha Media Berhad IPO Target Price Fair Value

2011-07-07T00:50:00.000+08:00

2010, 2011, 2012, 2013
Catcha EPS RM0.061, RM0.085, RM0.112, RM0.128
Catcha PE ratio 12.3x, 8.8x, 6.7x, 5.8x
Growth 39% (2011), 31%(2012), 14% (2013)
No net gearing, net cash
Catcha dividend yield n/a
Forecast from TA Securities

Valuation from TA
We value Catcha Media Berhad using Asia Media Group Berhad as a benchmark. Asia Media was listed on the ACE Market in January of this year. Using an FY12 target PER of 6.5x, we derive a fair value of RM0.73/share for Catcha Media. We recommend investors not to subscribe as we are of the opinion that this stock is fully valued. Nonetheless, we advise investors to buy on dip as this company offers interesting business potential along with its strategic investor, Star Publications (M) Berhad.

More information from Catcha Media share, here.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/Catcha%20Media

More info on recent IPO
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/IPO

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Inari IPO stock target price fair value

2011-07-07T00:06:00.000+08:00

Inari Berhad (Inari) is an electronics manufacturing service (EMS) provider. The group is principally involved in semiconductor packaging, comprising backend wafer processing, package assembly and RF final testing for the semiconductor industry. The group currently has about 6% market share in the local semiconductor industry. More than 95% of the group’s revenue for the last 3 years was contributed from a major customer, namely, Avago.

Here, we fairly value Inari at RM0.41, using CY12 EPS of 5.1sen while pegging it at PER of 8x – inline
with our sector PER for semiconductor industry. Our fair value offers a total upside of merely 12% (Capital
upside: 7.5%, dividend yield: 4.9%). Therefore, we recommend investors Not to Subscribe to this IPO issue.

Source: TA Securities

Let us look at Inari stock analysis, which end in June.

2011, 2012, 2013
Inari EPS RM0.038, RM0.047, RM0.056
Growth negative 17% (2011), 23% (2012), 19% (2013)
Inari PE Ratio 9.9x, 8.1x, 6.8x
No net gearing (with net cash)
Inari dividend yield 4.9%, the Inari dividend payout ratio is 40%.
Source is from TA Securities with Inari fair value at RM0.41

More information on Inari, such as IPO price, directors, closing date, etc, here.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/Inari

More info on other recent IPO, here
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/IPO

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SOP Stock Analysis

2011-07-06T07:37:00.001+08:00

Sarawak Oil Palms Bhd quick analysis.

Using SOP share price of RM4.13
2010,   2011,   2012
SOP EPS RM0.344 ,   RM0.423 ,   RM0,47
SOP PE ratio 12x ,   9.8x ,   8.8x
Net cash, SOP dividend yield is less than 1%.
Above figures from NetReseacrh-Asia, with SOP target price of RM4.30

They maintain Buy recommendation on SOP stock for its favourable oil palm profile and undemanding P/E valuation. Its current P/E valuation of 8.2x for FY11 is at a discount as compared with plantation sector of 15x. They have arrived at a target price of RM4.30 based on a target P/E of 10x for FY11.

(I think they will revise upward the SOP fair value)

Not sure why they give such a big discount to SOP stock, probably due to size and liquidity. Anyway SOP has about 43% immature plant that is coming to maturity and just planted 81% of their land (19% unplanted). This probably can boost their oil palm production in the coming years.

Articles you may like:

Information on recent IPO
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/IPO

TSH shares
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/TSH

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Star Publications (Malaysia) Bhd will be Cornerstone Investor in Catcha Media IPO

2011-07-05T21:30:00.000+08:00

Star will be acquiring 5.0% of the enlarged issue and paid up share capital of Catcha Media for total cash of RM5.0m. In a nutshell, Star will subscribe for 6.6m ordinary shares of RM0.10 each at an issue price of RM0.75 per share in conjunction with Catcha Media’s IPO exercise. The group’s shares are scheduled to be listed on the ACE Market on 22 July 2011.

Catcha Media is presently a media owner and operator of a magazine publishing business as well as an online media business. It currently publishes 14 magazine titles while its online media business sells internet advertising space to Malaysian brand owners and advertising agencies through an exclusive online partnership with Microsoft’s Windows Live and MSN portal, as well as the country’s largest IT portal, Lowyat.net. Prior to the IPO, Catch Media’s existing substantial shareholder is Catcha Group Pte Ltd, with 81.6% equity interest. Catcha Group is one of Southeast Asia’s largest and most dynamic media holding companies and is founder and majority shareholder in Asia’s largest property portal, Iproperty.com, listed in Australia.

Source: OSK

More info on recent IPO, here.
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Story of Malays struggles at RM17.00

2011-07-04T21:35:00.000+08:00

Last week I took a taxi back home and the driver is a Malay. We chit-chat.

He was complaining to me how Malaysian and the Malays are suffering under the present government.

He said: Orang Atas makan terlaku banyak.

He told me under the present government the money/ income is unable to flow down to the Malay people. He said the government is very worried about the 09/07/2011 rally because although BN may have advantage now, there is a chance that BN may lose in the next general election. There was a pro BN speaker during the Friday prayer sermon asking not to attend the 09/07/2011 rally, and he nearly walk away from his prayer. But due to respect to the divine, he stayed on.

I told him the urban citizen (city/town) vote for PR, and due to lack on information the kampung will stick to BN. He told me things are different now.

The journey cost me RM17.00 and it was nice chat with him.

My view is this, all political parties got weaknesses. But I prefer a two-party systems that is equally strong so that it will not be any lopsided. One more thing is I dislike BN where the component parties are based on race.

My blog link.

http://politemarket.blogspot.com/

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Bonia stock news update with target price RM2.83 (61% upside)

2011-07-04T07:38:00.001+08:00

From Bonia stock latest news development, let us look at some of the figures, a simple one.

Bonia year end is Jun. At Bonia share price of RM1.76.

PE ratio Jun 12.0x (2010), 8.5x (2011) and 6.8x (2012)

Growth 40% (2011), 25% (2012).

No net Gearing, with net cash.

Dividend yield is 3.4% (2011)

Figures: OSK, with Bonia target price fair value RM2.83 (61% upside).

For the next three quarters, the growth will be mainly from the contribution by Jeco, Bonia new subsidiary where the deal was just completed at the end of December 2010.

Future growth will be from new strategy and more new openings to push sales. OSK said Bonia is planning to expand more in Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia given the encouraging performances in these countries. To boost sales further, the group is also adopting a new business strategy. But nothing was mentioned by OSK on what is the new strategy.

Problem with Bonia? Low volume or lack liquidity.

If you are patience to que, do not mind the low volume, and you think Bonia can grow, then is up to you.

More info on http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/Bonia

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4 days Ymads online income US95.92 (RM287) and I stop

2011-07-04T00:24:00.003+08:00

Ymads updates. After four days, my total online Ymads income is US$95.92 (RM287).

However, I decided to stop. You can refer to my earlier post on the reasons why I am in doubt. Wait till they pay me, then I resume.

Why I want to stop if I have nothing to lose? i can just continue to put up the advertisement without having to do anything. And if Ymads is a real thing, then I probably have lost the opportunity to sign up more referrals for the coming weeks until I get the payment. Most may have been signed-up by others.

Yes, I want to make more easy money, but I just cannot convince myself to continue.

If you have more info on Ymads, more can share with us.

My blog link
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/

Thanks

Why I think that Ymads is scam?

2011-07-03T12:01:00.000+08:00

Update: three and a half days, my total Ymads income US$92.04 (RM270).

Why I think that Ymads is scam?

1) The income is too much

2) When I registered using my email address, there was no verification or activation using my email

3) When I do Google search on YMads, most of the search research is on other sites and not Ymads manin site. This means Ymads site is not a popular site recognized by Google

4) Nobody receive Ymads payment yet

Why Ymads scam or cheat us?
I don’t know, I am not an IT guy, but from my limited IT knowledge this is what I suspect:

1) They get your paypal ID, and your Ymads password, then try to log into Paypal using your Ymads password. This is possible if the member use the same password for both Ymads and paypals.

2) Ymads just do it for fun.

3) Ymads try to create for awareness, but get the money from advertisers while not paying the publisher.

4) Ymads try to sign up as many members as possible, then sell the members’ personal information.

Anyway, due to my limited IT knowledge, who am I to judge whether this is Ymads scandal or not. If you think this is real, then this is really a good income.

My blog link.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/

Thanks

My YMads online income is too much, I start to doubt

2011-07-02T15:32:00.001+08:00

My 1st Day US$11.20 (Final)
Second Day US39.13 (Final)
Third day US$28.99 (up to 2pm)
Total for 2.5 days US$79.32 (RM238)

Estimated monthly YMads income per month US$750 (RM2,250)
This is new and after some YMads review, so far I have not seen any person received from YMads payment from paypal. I will only start receiving payment on 31 July 2011. Can it be YMads scam or YMads cheat. I hope is real.

I think you guys may also want to try, it's free. You need to be quick because you can refer others and get $2.50 USD for every referrals + 5% lifetime commission. Sign-up your friends before they are sign-up by others.

Sign-up and promote and wait and see whether is real.

If you wait and see whether is real then only sign up, if it is real, then it is too late, most people has already sign-up and you cannot earn referral commission.

If you guys want to sign up for YMads, it’s free, just click on the Ymads advertisement in my blog.
My blog link.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/

Thanks

Why Good Stock Share Price Cannot move up?

2011-07-02T10:16:00.001+08:00

My friend told me in June 2011 he attended a seminar on stock market, the speaker asked why good stock share price cannot move up.

The participants gave many answers and all are correct but these are not the best answer. Examples of their answers are market sentiment, no syndicate, low volume, small cap, etc.
The answer given by the speaker is CATALYST.

My blog started in March 2010, and only few readers a day. But if they can recall, I actually put my investment criteria as PEGGY with Catalyst. However, few months later, I have removed the word catalyst.

In fact, I agree that Catalyst is the answer. But why I removed the word catalyst?

What is catalyst in stock market? Catalyst is something that pushes up the stock prices.

Company ABC is profitable. If you buy and hold for years, you will make money. But who want to wait so long? Longer time means got uncertainties. Investors want quick money.

Therefore, company ABC share price hardly move, maybe one two months up two percent.

But if the financial result is much higher than the forecast, then maybe the price will jump. If got rumours that XYZ will takeover Company ABC, then maybe share price will jump. Company ABC share price has broke the resistance level, then many chartists will buy and it will start an uptrend.

Company ABC just venture into a new business and profit may increase 40%. This may also cause the share price to jump. Company ABC soon will be announcing a big special dividend, and this may cause buying interest into Company ABC.

As you can see, catalyst can make the share price move up. But why I removed the word catalyst from my investment criteria?

Two Reasons.
1) I’m still not sure what is catalyst
There are many things that very clear they are catalysts, such as rumours, profit much higher than forecast, announcement of big projects, etc. But some, I am not sure whether they are catalyst. Examples, is increase in profit a catalyst? If more and more analysts cover the stocks consider a catalysts? Is new products or new launching consider a catalyst? Is huge cash reserve consider a catalyst? Is bonus issue or share split consider a catalyst?

2) Where to find catalyst stock?
How do I know the result will be much higher than forecast? How do I know about the rumours? How do I know they will venture into a new business? How do I know there will be a takeover?

Because I am not very sure what is catalyst and hard for me to find a catalyst stock, that is why I have removed catalyst from my investment criteria.

However, I still think that catalyst is a very important factor. I write this article, although I don’t know how to use catalyst, I hope you can benefit from my article and know how to use catalyst in your investment.

Add my blog link to your blog.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/

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BEST Online INCOME and You should also sign up on YM online incomes

2011-07-01T23:50:00.000+08:00

My First day income US$11.20 (Final)
Second day income US$ 39.13 (Final)
Total Two Days US$50.33 (RM150)

Estimated per day US$25 (RM75)
Estimated per month US$750 (RM2,250)
My concern? Why so good? Maybe is a scam or cheat? Maybe later income drop? But I have nothing to lose. No cost to me.

Why you should sign up quick?
Because you have two high income.
1)High advertisement income, much better than Google, Nuffnang and Adverlet.
2) Refer others to sign up and you will get US$2.50 for each sign-up, and earn 5% lifetime commission on their income.
You have to sign up now, so that you can earn income by referring your friends to sign-up, before other people sign them up.
Sign up now by clicking on the light blue YM Advertisement in my blog.

My blog
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/
Thanks

New online income I earn RM120 (US$40) in two days

2011-07-01T18:43:00.007+08:00

Latest updates, I made from ads is US$6.24. From my refferals is US$35.33. Less than 48 hours is total US$41.67.

This mean I can make US$600 (RM1,800) per month? If really that much, I think you guys should also try. If it is a cheat, i do not lose anything, just a bit of time to put up the advertisement in my blog.

Sign up now and get referrals before others sign-up. Go to my blog and click on the light blue YM advertisement to sign up.

My blog link.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/

Thanks

Earn High Online Income

2011-07-01T08:12:00.002+08:00

I just signed-up for YM. The first day online income already reached US$11.20. If I can earn that daily, one month will be >US$330 and about RM1,000 per month.

I think you may also sign-up and try it out. Go to my blog and click on the light blue YM advertisement to sign up.

You need to be quick because you can refer others and get $2.50 USD for every referrals + 5% lifetime commission.

I earn US$6.20 for the first twenty hours. Then I took out all the YM advertisement and put in the YM referrals, within two hours, earn additioanl US$5.00.

Sign up now and get referrals before others sign-up. Go to my blog and click on the light blue YM advertisement to sign up.

My blog link.

http://politemarket.blogspot.com/

Thanks

PETERLABS HOLDINGS BERHAD IPO

2011-07-01T07:02:00.002+08:00

PETERLABS HOLDINGS BERHAD IPO Price RM0.30

Opening of application : 30/06/2011
Closing of application : 12/07/2011
Balloting of applications : 14/07/2011
Allotment of IPO shares to successful applicants : 18/07/2011
Tentative listing date : 26/07/2011

Issuing house MIH 521
Ace Market

INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING IN CONJUNCTION WITH OUR LISTING ON THE ACE MARKET OF BURSA MALAYSIA SECURITIES BERHAD COMPRISING:
- PUBLIC ISSUE OF 15,000,000 NEW ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.10 EACH RESERVED FOR APPLICATION BY THE PUBLIC; AND
- OFFER FOR SALE OF 35,903,000 ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.10 EACH TO BE OFFERED TO IDENTIFIED INVESTORS
AT AN ISSUE/OFFER PRICE OF RM0.30 PER ORDINARY SHARE, PAYABLE IN FULL UPON APPLICATION

Source: PerterLabs
PeterLabs is a dynamic company dealing with animal health and nutrition products.
We are one of the leading specialist in manufacturing, distribution and trading of animal health and nutrition products. Our products include Anthelmintic, Antimicrobial, Disinfectant, Injectable, Mold Inhibitor and Toxin Binder, Multi-Nutrient and Supplement, Complete Feed Premix, Pre-Probiotic / Enzyme / Acidifier, Topical Dressings and Cleansing Agents.

Chairman Speech - Lim Tong Seng
Welcome to PeterLabs Holdings. We are a dynamic team of professionals always ready to serve our customers.

Our Group always strive to improve our products and provide exceptionally good services to our customers by maintaining a personal relationship and dealing directly with the customers.

For nearly 25 years now, our Group has been implementing true strategic, commercial and technical changes focusing on quality. Our Group is one of the leading players in supplying animal nutrition and health products to the poultry farms not only locally but also to countries like Pakistan and Taiwan. We also provide nutrition and veterinary pharmaceutical products to the satisfaction of our customers.

The industrial investments made by our Group to reengineer the new plant to comply quality standards, such as GMP compliant.

More on recent IPO, here
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/IPO

Thanks

CATCHA MEDIA BERHAD IPO

2011-06-30T23:46:00.000+08:00

CATCHA MEDIA BERHAD IPO Price RM0.75

Opening of application : 30/06/2011
Closing of application or subscription : 08/07/2011
Balloting of applications : 12/07/2011
Allotment of IPO shares to successful applicants : 19/07/2011
Tentative listing date : 22/07/2011

Issuing house MIH 522
ACE Market

INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING IN CONJUNCTION WITH OUR LISTING ON THE ACE MARKET OF BURSA MALAYSIA SECURITIES BERHAD (“BURSA SECURITIES”) COMPRISING:
(I) PUBLIC ISSUE OF 23,000,000 NEW ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.10 EACH (“SHARES”) ALLOCATED IN THE FOLLOWING MANNER:
• 20,000,000 SHARES MADE AVAILABLE FOR APPLICATION BY WAY OF PRIVATE PLACEMENT TO IDENTIFIED INVESTORS; AND
• 3,000,000 SHARES MADE AVAILABLE FOR APPLICATION BY THE MALAYSIAN PUBLIC
(II) OFFER FOR SALE OF UP TO 11,000,000 SHARES MADE AVAILABLE FOR APPLICATION BY WAY OF PRIVATE PLACEMENT TO IDENTIFIED INVESTORS
AT AN ISSUE PRICE/OFFER PRICE OF RM0.75 PER SHARE, PAYABLE IN FULL UPON APPLICATION.

Free Malaysia Today
June 30, 2011 KUALA LUMPUR: Catcha Media Bhd, en route for a ACE Market listing on July 22, expects to raise RM17.5 million from its initial public offering (IPO).
“We have set aside about RM13.15 million of the proceeds for working capital, RM2 million for research and development and the remaining RM2.1 million will be used to fund listing expenses,” it said in a statement today.

Catcha Media, a media owner and operator of a business magazine and online media, aims to list 23 million new ordinary shares at 75 sen per share, where three million shares have been offered to the Malaysian public and 20 million shares have been alloted for private placement.
Moving forward, Catcha Media seeks to expand by way of acquiring more representation and sales rights for local and international online properties, while leveraging its magazine publishing business to grow its online media business.

“We believe Catcha Media has very strong prospects, given its leading position in the online media industry,” said director and founder Patrick Grove.
Based on a Frost & Sullivan study, Catcha Media garnered 26.62% share of Malaysia’s online advertising market last year. - Bernama

More info on recent IPO here.
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HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BERHAD IPO

2011-06-30T23:03:00.000+08:00

HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BERHAD IPO price RM 0.75
Opening of application : 30/06/2011
Closing of application : 13/07/2011
Balloting of applications : 15/07/2011
Allotment of IPO shares to successful applicants : 19/07/2011
Tentative listing date : 25/07/2011
Issuing house EQS 644
Main Market

PUBLIC ISSUE OF BETWEEN 200,000,000 AND UP TO 400,000,000 NEW ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.01 EACH IN OUR COMPANY (“PUBLIC ISSUE SHARES”), TOGETHER WITH BETWEEN 200,000,000 AND UP TO 400,000,000 FREE DETACHABLE WARRANTS (“WARRANTS-A”) ON THE BASIS OF 1 WARRANT-A FOR EVERY 1 PUBLIC ISSUE SHARE SUBSCRIBED, AT AN ISSUE PRICE OF RM0.75 PER PUBLIC ISSUE SHARE PAYABLE IN FULL UPON APPLICATION COMPRISING:
• BETWEEN 190,000,000 AND UP TO 390,000,000 PUBLIC ISSUE SHARES TOGETHER WITH BETWEEN 190,000,000 AND UP TO 390,000,000 WARRANTS-A ON THE BASIS OF 1 WARRANT-A FOR EVERY 1 PUBLIC ISSUE SHARE SUBSCRIBED BY WAY OF PLACEMENT TO SELECTED INVESTORS;
• 10,000,000 PUBLIC ISSUE SHARES TOGETHER WITH 10,000,000 WARRANTS-A ON THE BASIS OF 1 WARRANT-A FOR EVERY 1 PUBLIC ISSUE SHARE SUBSCRIBED AVAILABLE FOR APPLICATION BY THE MALAYSIAN PUBLIC;
IN CONJUNCTION WITH OUR LISTING ON THE MAIN MARKET OF BURSA MALAYSIA SECURITIES BERHAD.

-----------
Business Times 30 June 2011
Hibiscus Petroleum Bhd will utilise its initial public offering (IPO) proceeds of between RM150 million and RM300 million to acquire stakes in one to three oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) companies.
"We intend to only venture into E&P opportunities, from low to moderate risk onshore opportunities and low risk shallow water offshore opportunities that have high upside potential," said Managing Director Dr Kenneth Pereira after launching the company's IPO prospectus here today.

Hibiscus Petroleum, the first special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) to be listed on Bursa Malaysia, is scheduled for listing on the Main Market on July 25.

It aims to take up 30 to 40 per cent stake in each target company in a deal valued less than RM100 million.

An SPAC company is a company that is initially listed with no operations but is formed exclusively to make acquisitions using cash raised from its IPO.

Under the Securities Commission guidelines, 90 per cent of the fund raised would be placed in trust account, and the acquisitions must have an aggregate fair market value equal to at least 80 per cent of the amount in the trust account.

An SPAC that fails to make acquisitions within three years must be liquidated.

Pereira said: "A third party market research has identified 62 possible deals in the South Asia, Middle-East, East Asia and Oceania regions that Hibiscus could afford based on its IPO.

"And out of these, 13 could generate revenue within the next two years or less."

He said the company would become the first Malaysian-listed oil and gas E&P independent company and hoped to create value mainly through knowledge and experience of the board and management team.
Hibiscus' IPO entails a public issue of between 200 million and up to 400 million new ordinary shares together with free detachable warrants on the basis of one warrant for every one public issue share subscribed, at an issue price of RM0.75 per share.

The public issue comprises between 190 million and up to 390 million shares by way of placement to selected investors and 10 million shares made available for application by the Malaysian public.
Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd is the principal adviser for the underwriting of the balloting portion to be made available for application by the public. -- Bernama

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Bumi Armada IPO

2011-06-30T22:41:00.001+08:00

Bumi Armada Berhad was listed in KLSE. It was privatised and delisted in 2003 by T. Ananda Krishnan.

IPO price RM 3.15, or the Institutional Price, whichever is lower, subject to a refund of the difference between the Final Retail Price and RM3.15 per Share.

Opening of application : 30/06/2011
Closing of application : 07/07/2011
Balloting of applications : 11/07/2011
Allotment of Bumi Armada IPO shares to successful applicants : 19/07/2011
Tentative listing date : 21/07/2011
MIH 520 Main Market

INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING OF UP TO 878,538,600 ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.20 EACH IN BUMI ARMADA BERHAD ("BUMI ARMADA") ("SHARES") COMPRISING:
(I) OFFER FOR SALE OF UP TO 234,277,000 EXISTING SHARES ("OFFER SHARES") COMPRISING:
• THE INSTITUTIONAL OFFERING OF UP TO 234,277,000 OFFER SHARES TO BUMIPUTERA INVESTORS APPROVED BY THE MINISTRY OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INDUSTRY ("MITI") AT THE INSTITUTIONAL PRICE TO BE DETERMINED BY WAY OF BOOKBUILDING ("INSTITUTIONAL PRICE"); AND
(II) PUBLIC ISSUE OF UP TO 644,261,600 NEW SHARES ("ISSUE SHARES") COMPRISING:
• THE INSTITUTIONAL OFFERING OF UP TO 564,400,200 ISSUE SHARES TO MALAYSIAN AND FOREIGN INSTITUTIONAL AND SELECTED INVESTORS, INCLUDING BUMIPUTERA INVESTORS APPROVED BY MITI AT THE INSTITUTIONAL PRICE; AND
• THE RETAIL OFFERING OF 79,861,400 ISSUE SHARES TO THE MALAYSIAN PUBLIC, THE DIRECTORS OF BUMI ARMADA, AND ELIGIBLE EMPLOYEES AND PERSONS WHO HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE SUCCESS OF BUMI ARMADA AND ITS SUBSIDIARIES AT THE RETAIL PRICE OF RM3.15 PER SHARE ("RETAIL PRICE"), PAYABLE IN FULL UPON APPLICATION AND SUBJECT TO A REFUND OF THE DIFFERENCE IN THE EVENT THAT THE FINAL RETAIL PRICE IS LESS THAN THE RETAIL PRICE,
SUBJECT TO THE CLAWBACK AND REALLOCATION PROVISIONS. THE FINAL RETAIL PRICE WILL EQUAL THE LOWER OF (I) THE RETAIL PRICE; AND (II) THE INSTITUTIONAL PRICE.

________
Business Times 30 June 2011
Offshore oil and gas services provider, Bumi Armada Bhd, which aims to raise RM2.029 billion from its initial public offering (IPO), has an order book of RM5.8 billion as at June 1, 2011.

Its executive director/chief executive officer, Hassan Assad Basma, said the majority of the firm's contracts on its order book also contained extension options, with a potential total value of RM2.5 billion.

"Bumi Armada is a growth story and we forecast continued growth. As such, we have a good pipeline of future projects. "In floating production, storage and offloading (FSPO), we are busy tendering for six projects now," he told reporters after the launch of the IPO prospectus here today.

The company, which is expected to be listed on July 21, 2011, is offering 644.26 million new shares at RM3.15 apiece. It will use the proceeds to repay bank borrowing, capital expenditure, working capital and listing expenses.

The listing is the largest in Malaysia this year and the second biggest listing in South-East Asia. After the IPO, the stake of Usaha Tegas Sdn, the parent of Bumi Armada, will be diluted to 43 per cent from 54 per cent previously.

Bumi Armada has secured cornerstone investors for its institutional offering, namely Great Eastern Life Assurance (M) Bhd, Permodalan Nasional Bhd, HwangDBS Investment Management Bhd, Prudential Fund Management Bhd, Hong Leong Assurance Bhd, Guoline Capital Ltd and Asia Foundation Investment Co Ltd.

They investors agreed to buy 300 million shares, or 10.2 per cent, of the company. On whether the institutional book would be closed early, a Maybank official said the management has not decided yet, adding that interest has been strong since the book opened on July 28.

Hassan Assad said Bumi Armada planned to increase its presence in existing markets as well as new markets in Latin America, Africa and Asia in the next two to three years.

"It could be either on a strategic or opportunistic basis. "We will evaluate new markets as and when opportunities arise. However, we anticipate to increase our presence in existing markets including Angola, Brazil, Venezuela, India and Vietnam," he said.

He said 84.8 per cent of the company's revenue for financial year 2010 and 67.7 per cent for first quarter ended March 31, 2011 were derived from outside Malaysia.

Hassan Assad said Bumi Armada aimed to be the fourth largest FSPO player in the world in terms of fleet size by end-2013, adding that the company's plan was to have one FSPO yearly.

Bumi Armada is Malaysia's largest owner and operator of offshore vessels with about 50 vessels. For the year ended Dec 31, 2010, it recorded a net profit of RM351 million and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of RM714 million.

For the three months ended March 31, 2011, its net profit was RM82 million and EBITDA RM185 million. Its revenue for financial year 2010 was RM1.241 billion while revenue for the first quarter ended March 31, 2011 was RM376 million. -- Bernama

More info on recent IPO, here.
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I found a good online income site

2011-06-30T21:53:00.001+08:00

I just signed up and in less than 24 hours, I earned more than US$5. You can try and sign up by clicking the light blue adverisement in my blog, with the name YM.

Enjoy the income.

my blog link.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/

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Muhibbah stock a trading buy

2011-06-29T22:36:00.000+08:00

CIMB recommend a trading buy on Muhibbah Engineering shares. Let us look at Muhibbah analysis before we decide whether can consider or not.

At Muhibbah share price of RM1.39.

Year 2010 , 2011 , 2012 , 2013

EPS RM0.085 , RM0.182 , RM0.204 , RM0.227

Muhibbah PE Ratio 16.4x , 7.7x , 6.8x , 6.1x

Growth 214% (2011), 12% (2012), 11% (2013)

Net gearing about 50%

Dividend yield 2.9% (2011)

Figures: CIMB, with Muhibbah target price fair value RM2.75

Kenanga Research said Muhibbah may have potential losses due to APH issues and could lead the company into PN17 status as the severe losses would erode its shareholders fund by more than 75 per cent. "We believe this is less likely to be the case as the company may not need to write down the full amount of RM370 million," the research house said.

Based on the figures by CIMB, I don’t think they have incorporated the potential loss into Muhibbah Engineering because at this moment, things are still not sure.

In my opinion, if we buy into Muhibbah, we are buying into news. If APH got good news, then Muhibbah share price will go up. I think most of us also not sure what will happen to APH case. Up to individuals to decide.

--------------------------------------

27 June 2011 CIMB

After the APH travails, the award of the RM338m Northport extension contract to Muhibbah was a slight welcome surprise and an indication of the group’s strength and niche in port/marine related infrastructure works. Contributions from this project will amount to 5-9% of FY11-13 net profit. However, we make no changes to our numbers as it is part of the RM1bn new contracts that we have assumed for 2011.

Although APH’s receivership remains an overhang, we maintain our TRADING BUY

call and target price of RM2.75, which we continue to base on a 10% RNAV discount.

This award, a likely positive outcome for APH and more contract wins are potential

catalysts for the stock which has collapsed 27% since the APH news made headlines.

---------------------------------------

Recent Muhubbah developments from The Star and CIMB 17 June 2011.

News that Asia Petroleum Hub (APH), a big client that owes money, was in receivership.

CIMB Research said the receivership status for the APH project as reported by a foreign newspaper on Wednesday was a negative surprise.

APH had been put under receivership mainly because it could not come up with other investors to help fund the development and repay its debt.

APH is likely to negotiate for more time to resolve the matter and rope in a new investor.

The news said APH had secured in 2006 a RM1.4bil three-year bridging loan but has been looking for RM2bil in additional funding following escalation of the project cost.

It has been placed under a receiver -Malaysian accounting firm BBDO-Binder.

“Receivership status typically involves a temporary transfer of control from the management to the appointed receiver.

“On the status of a potential new investor, we understand that APH is still in talks, probably with a new foreign party, which would pump in the funds needed to restart the projects.

“The indicative timeline is towards end-2011,” CIMB Research said.

As one of the contractors for APH, Muhibbah was awarded marine piling and jetty works worth RM820mil.

The research house said cost escalation in 2008 led to funding issues for APH and the stalling of payments to Muhibbah Engineering.

“The unpaid amount has accumulated to RM300mil, which does not include RM187mil worth of outstanding work as at end-2010.

“Muhibbah Enginering had not made any provisions for the project as the project is still deemed viable,” the research house said.

It added that the worst case scenario for Muhibbah was a write-down of the RM300mil due from APH, which would push Muhibbah Engineering into losses for FY11.

“However, we believe that in a scenario where the receiver takes over the management of APH, it may come up with a scheme to repay a large portion of the amount due to contractors.

“This would reduce the risk of a huge write-down,” it said.

While this latest development was a disappointment, the research house said it was not overly concerned as Muhibbah Engineering's fundamentals were still intact, backed by a buoyant construction and oil & gas sector.

CIMB Research continues to rate Muhibbah Engineering a “trading buy” and remains one of its top picks for the construction sector.

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Inari Berhad IPO

2011-06-29T09:33:00.001+08:00

Opening of application : 28/06/2011
Closing of application : 07/07/2011
Balloting of applications : 11/07/2011
Allotment of Inari Berhad IPO shares to successful applicants : 18/07/2011
Tentative listing date : 19/07/2011
Issuing house Equiniti 643
ACE Market

INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING IN CONJUNCTION WITH OUR LISTING ON THE ACE MARKET OF BURSA MALAYSIA SECURITIES BERHAD COMPRISING PUBLIC ISSUE OF 83,000,000 NEW ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.10 EACH (“SHARES”) IN INARI BERHAD COMPRISING:
• 10,000,000 SHARES MADE AVAILABLE TO THE MALAYSIAN PUBLIC;
• 26,154,000 SHARES BY WAY OF PRIVATE PLACEMENT TO IDENTIFIED INVESTORS;
• 36,460,000 SHARES BY WAY OF PRIVATE PLACEMENT TO IDENTIFIED BUMIPUTERA INVESTORS APPROVED BY THE MINISTRY OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INDUSTRY; AND
• 10,386,000 SHARES MADE AVAILABLE TO OUR ELIGIBLE DIRECTORS, EMPLOYEES AND PERSONS WHO HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE SUCCESS OF INARI BERHAD AND OUR SUBSIDIARIES.
AT AN ISSUE PRICE OF RM0.38 PER SHARE PAYABLE IN FULL ON APPLICATION

About Inari Berhad (Source: Inari)
Inari Berhad is an investment holding company with subsidiaries involved in the electronics manufacturing services (EMS) industry. The Inari Berhad Group started in June 2006 with the establishment of Inari Technology Sdn Bhd (Inari Technology). Inari Technology is an EMS company principally involved in back-end semiconductor packaging, which comprises back- end wafer processing, package assembly and RF final testing for the electronics/semiconductor industry. Inari Technology’s customers are primarily in the wireless communication segment.

Inari Technology’s capabilities are not limited to the wireless microwave telecommunication semiconductor segment; Inari Technology is also capable of manufacturing the entire range of semiconductor products for other segments of the semiconductor industry.

Board of Directors of Inari Berhad

1) Y. A. M. Tengku Puteri Seri Kemala Pahang Tengku Hajjah Aishah bte Sultan Haji Ahmad Shah,
DK(II), SIMP.
2) Dato’ Thong Kok Khee
3) Dato’ Wong Gian Kui
4) Dr. Tan Seng Chuan
5) Mai Mang Lee
6) Ho Phon Guan
7) Tan Lee Pang S/O Hum Beng
8) Ooi Boon Chye
9) Oh Seong Lye
10) Rajendran A/L Velayuthan
11) Foo Kok Siew

Management Team Site

The Senior Management Team comprise of personnel who have vast experience in the related fields.
1) Mr Herman Tan (General Manager - Finance, 15 years of experience)
2) Mr Daniel Lim (Financial Controller, 22 years of experience)
3) Mr FT Cheang (Senior Operation Manager - Test, 28 years of experience)
4) Mr BK Tan (Operation Manager - NPI & Marketing, 20 years of experience)
5) Mr James Tan (Operations Manager - Assembly, 19 years of experience)
6) Mr KH Chew (Manager - R&D, 21 years of experience)
7) Mr EL Chai (Head Of Department, 21 years of experience)
8) Mr Govindarajoo (Operation Manager - Wafersort, 21 years of experience)
9) Mr Geoffry Tan (Senior Manager - Operation (SMT/FA), 16 years of experience)

More info on recent IPO.
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Prestariang Berhad IPO

2011-06-29T07:44:00.002+08:00

Prestariang Berhad 28-06-11
Opening Date of application 28-06-2011
Closing date of IPO 15-07-11
Prestariang IPO price RM 0.90
Balloting of applications : 19/07/2011
Allotment of IPO shares to successful applicants : 22/07/2011
Issuing house MIH 518
Main Market
Tentative Listing Date 27-07-11

PUBLIC ISSUE OF 22,000,000 NEW ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.10 EACH AVAILABLE FOR APPLICATION BY THE MALAYSIAN PUBLIC; AND
OFFER FOR SALE OF 77,000,000 ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.10 EACH COMPRISING:-
• 8,000,000 ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.10 EACH AVAILABLE FOR APPLICATION BY THE MALAYSIAN PUBLIC;
• 7,000,000 ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.10 EACH AVAILABLE FOR APPLICATION BY ELIGIBLE DIRECTORS, EMPLOYEES, AND BUSINESS ASSOCIATES OF PRESTARIANG BERHAD AND ITS SUBSIDIARIES;
• 22,000,000 ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.10 EACH AVAILABLE FOR PRIVATE PLACEMENT TO BUMIPUTERA INVESTORS APPROVED BY THE MINISTRY OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INDUSTRY; AND
• 40,000,000 ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.10 EACH AVAILABLE FOR PRIVATE PLACEMENT TO SELECTED INVESTORS;
AT AN ISSUE/OFFER PRICE OF RM0.90 PER ORDINARY SHARE PAYABLE IN FULL ON APPLICATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LISTING OF PRESTARIANG BERHAD ON THE MAIN MARKET OF BURSA MALAYSIA SECURITIES BERHAD.

ABOUT PRESTARIANG
Incorporated in 2003, the Company’s core business is to train and certify lifelong learners to become professionals. Focusing on ICT training and certification, and software licence distribution and management, we aim to impart knowledge, skills and attitude to make a person gain initial employment, maintain it and obtain new ones if required through globally benchmarked accreditation.

Our two core business activities are highly synergistic, where we commonly provide ICT training and certification together with the supply of licences for the software that we are training and certifying.

As a certified partner for various technology and software vendors and organisations, we have the capability to provide both basic and professional ICT training and certification encompassing instructor-led courses and certification examination at the end of the course. At the same time we are able to distribute and manage their software licences.

Currently, we offer approximately 40 certification courses from various technology and software vendors who are our valued partners including Microsoft, IBM, Oracle, Sun Microsystems, CompTIA, Autodesk, EC-Council, Adobe and others.

Prestariang is a Bumiputra-owned MSC Malaysia-status company and a registered ICT contractor with Ministry of Finance.

Source: Prestariang

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