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Wednesday, March 31, 2010

FREIGHT enters Vietnam

Freight Management has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Dang
Anh Binh to form a JV to operate freight forwarding business in Vietnam.
Freight Management will hold 51%.
With zero gearing, easy for Freight Management to grow their business
(eg new plant, oversea, new business, etc)

Supermax raised internal after-tax profit target by 23.5%

Supermax Corp, has raised its internal after-tax profit target by 23.5%
from RM136 million to RM168 million for year 2010.

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Canon Nikon Panasonic Olympus Sony Pentax Samsung Fujiflim HP Toshiba Kyocera Leica Ricoh Kodak Casio Konica Minolta Sigma

Current Top Digital Cameras (provided by a friend, not sure whether is updated):

Canon EOS 550D

Panasonic Lumix DMC-G2
Canon EOS 7D
Panasonic Lumix DMC-GF1
Nikon D3S
Nikon D90
Canon PowerShot G11
Nikon D5000
Canon EOS-1D Mark IV
Canon EOS 500D
Olympus PEN E-PL1
Nikon D3000
Nikon D300S
Canon EOS 5D Mark II
Pentax K-x
Canon EOS 50D
Panasonic Lumix DMC-LX3
Nikon D700
Samsung NX10
Olympus PEN E-P1

Bought ULIcorp at RM0.675

United U-Li Corporation Bhd (ULICorp)
Market Leader in making cable support structure.

PE just 4
Dividend yield 3%+
Net Asset RM1.00+
Gearing 10%+

Some source said can hit RM1.00. Their track record quite ok.

Perodua Alza vs Proton Exora- MPV (Car / Vehicle)

Not sure which one is better.

Homeritz to export more to North and South America

In order to increase sales, Homeritz is to increase its total revenue from North and South America to 10%-15% within two years from about 8% currently. It currently exports 60% of its products to Europe and about 26% to the Australasian region.

Few good points here. First, it help them to boost its revenue. Also, they are diversifying to more markets. 3rd, not just to US, but North and South America.

Notion Bhd- Higher Low and Higher High

If you study Notion chart, the Lows/Highs are getting higher.
Low of RM2.76 on 01/02/10
Low of RM3.09 on 22/03/10
High of RM3.00 on 18/02/10
High of RM3.50 on 30/03/10

If this trend continues, the immediate support will be at RM3.20
And very soon it will break the all time high of RM3.52 (touched on
18/01/2010). Cut loss at RM3.20.

Genting Resort World (Genting Malaysia) Genting Singapore (Genting International)

Genting counters are quite volatile with heavy volume.
Whenever there is a market crash, many traders will buy Genting
counters, and sell when market rebound. They are doing buy low and sell
high.

Very difficult for me to buy low and sell high, unable to time the
market correctly. What I am doing is buy average low and sell average
high.

Is Windows a Virus?

1. Viruses replicate quickly.
Windows does this.
2. Viruses use up valuable system resources, slowing down the system as they do so.
Windows does this.
3. Viruses will, from time to time, trash your hard disk.
Windows does this.
4. Viruses are usually carried, unknown to the user, along with valuable programs and systems.
Windows does that too.
5. Viruses will occasionally make the user suspect their system is too slow (see 2) and the user will buy new hardware.
Same with Windows, yet again.
Maybe Windows really is a virus.
Nope! There is a difference!
Viruses are well supported by their authors, are frequently updated, and tend to become more sophisticated as they mature. So there! Windows is not a virus.

Monday, March 29, 2010

BroadBand Broad Band Maxis P1 Celcom Digi Streamyx U MMobile Wimax 3G 4G TMnet Axiata Wifi

Maxis, 4G, Streamyx, P1 Wimax, TMnet, Celcom, P1.com.my wifi Digi 3G WAP U Mobile.
What is all this? All handle by my brother.

Gold- How Much My Uncle Earn?

My uncle bought 100g gold from a Gold Trading Company (refer to my previous post) 9 months ago. He paid RM13k for the 99.9 pure gold.

For the past 9 months, he has been receiving rebate 2.5% per month= RM325, so total is RM325 X 9= RM2,925

Now what he is having? He is holding a 100g of physical 99.9 pure gold, worth also about RM13k, plus his pocket now richer by RM2,925.

Not bad right?

Unlike traditional physical gold holding, the holder does not get any dividend. But if you buy from the gold trading company, they will rebate you 2.5% every month, which is about 30% per year.

What is your risk if the gold trading company go bankrupt? You still hold a physical gold, like what we are wearing, in our drawer, under our bed or in our safe deposit box.

Haio- Sold another 25%

That day sold 25% of my Haio, and just sold another 25%.
So half of my Haio holding gone.

3 months later Haio 4Q result definitely much better YOY compare with last year, but already for 2 quarters they didn't manage to do better qoq (comparing revenue or profit with previous quarters, smell something). Very much depend on Indon but Indon profit only comes in 6 months later. Can have a glimpse 3 months later

With the price run up, I decided to chop another 25%.

Thistle Port Diskson Resort (Guoman) Holiday, Travel, Vacation, Tour

Managed to book Thistle Port Dickson Reosrt (5 stars, formally known as Guoman) on saturday during school holidays for a very cheap rate . But the condition is cash upfront at least 5 months in advance. Maybe they want to lock in customers and avoid situation like H1N1 where many cancelled their bookings.

Sarawak Laksa

Sarawak laksa comes from the town of Kuching in the Malaysian state Sarawak. It is actually very different from the curry laksa as the soup contains no curry in its ingredient at all.

Rice vermicelli (similar to meehon) in a fragrant soup, with juicy prawns, tender chicken slices, garlic, sour tamarind, bean sprouts, lemon grass and coconut milk, julienned omelette. It is served with a squeeze of lime and a generous dollop of fiery sambal belacan on the side.

Taste: VERY NICE. It is actually in between of Penang laksa and Kelantan laksa.

Hardly find it in KL, maybe not many people know how to cook. There are plenty in Sarawak. Try it!

Sunday, March 28, 2010

Infalac A+ price increase by 4%

My source said Enfalac A+ milk powder price will increase by 4%, from RM73.50 to RM76.50.
Assuming the manufacturer cost is RM50 and they made RM23.50 per unit based on current price, 100000 units will be making RM2.35mil

Ten years later, assuming the cost increase double to RM100 and they are selling double the price RM147 (make 47 per unit), by selling 100000 units they will be making RM4.7mil

One of the way to beat inflation is to invest in business/stock market. Money is getting smaller. Cost and price definitely will increase and our money in the bank will have less purchasing power. Sometimes not the company is making more money by better management or more customers, but they make more money because of inflation. They still sell 100000 units only.

Keep you money in Maybank shares is better than keep you money in Maybank saving account.

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Friday, March 26, 2010

Hartalega to triple production capacity by next year

Hartalega Holdings Bhd said they will triple its production capacity from current 500million to 1.3 billion by next year. This is due to upgrading works that are expecting to be completed between June and August 2011.

Portfolio 2010 Mar 26

Updates:

CORE STOCKS (each stock >20% of total portfolio):
Haio 2009 (cum 6.52, ex 2.71) now 4.50/ or cum 10.80 up 66%
Freight 2009, 2010 (0.62,0.70,0.73) now 0.81 up 31%

BASKET of STOCKS (each stock <5% of total portfolio):

Adventa 2009 (1.86) now 3.83. Up 106%
Bonia 2010 (1.03) now 1.04. Up 0.97%
Hartalega 2010 (7.15) now 8.45. Up 18%
Homerizt 2010 (0.62) now 0.595. Down 4.2%
KSeng 2010 (RM5.96) now RM5.96. Even
Notion 2010 (3.10) now 3.35. Up 8%
QL 2009,2010 (3.20,3.39) now 3.45 Up 7.8%
TWReits 2010 (1.14) now 1.20 Up 5.3%
AMFirst 2010 (1.08) now 1.09 Up 0.93%
Stareit 2010 (RM0.835) now RM0.83 Down 0.6%
Sign 2010 (1.60) now 1.57 Down 1.9%
Maxis 2009 (4.75) now 5.38 Up 11.7%
Dialog 2010 (0.98) now 1.13 Up 15.3%
Wellcall 2010 (1.30) now 1.30 Even


Note:
Some prices may be lower than current market price, but receiving HIGH dividend yearly from the stocks.

Adventa- Chart still strong

My yesterday post has mentioned that based on tehnical chart, Adventa is on uptrend. Today up RM0.14 to RM3.83. Hope it break pass RM4.00

Homeritz- Strong Support at RM0.56

After studying Homeritz technical chart analysis, there's a VERY STRONG support at the price of RM0.56. Now the price is RM0.595. The company is projected to earn RM0.11 per share and pay RM0.075 dividend, translate to superb high 12.6% return of dividend yield and superb PE of 5.4!!

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Adventa- Technical Analysis

Today Adventa price has broke RM3.66,
meaning it has broke out from the "icimoku cloud".
For the past three weeks Adventa is consolidating inside the cloud.
There is potential for Adventa to test psychological RM4.00 level before testing the high of RM4.35 (touched on 14/01/2010).

Topglove and Supermax are expensive. So for cheaper glove maker, can consider Adventa

Why Gloves and MPHB Up

Today 25/03/2010 Gloves company and MPHB up.
They said gloves up because US just got the health care policy approved, more citizen will be insured. This is good for health industry and glove maker.

MPHB I think because got people request to legalise the sport betting.
Some said because Magnum 4D may be re-listed and also Magnum is very successful in their new 4D lottery.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Keck Seng- I Bought their property at year 1980 price

Just bought little bit of Keck Seng RM5.96 today

PE: don't know
ROE: Don't know
Dividend yield: Don't know
Management: so so

It was recommended by a remisier:
No gearing, cash pile of RM332.6mil (RM1.37 per share)
Unutilised tax credit to be franked as dividends before Dec2013 RM427.6mil (RM1.77)

New accounting rules that they need to put fair value of their equity investment. This translate to increase in net asset of RM1.78 per share

Book value of land RM147.7mil (have not been valued since 1980)
Can easily worth RM2.46bil (RM10.20 per share) now, an increase of RM2.30bil (RM9.53 per share).

All in, net aseet can be worth RM17 per share

As long as they don't pay big dividend, don't unlock the land value (by selling or develop it), shareholder like me get NOTHING.
Most of us will have to hold the shares till we die.

In coming Annual General Meeting, we have to remind the directors that their duty and responsibility is to MAXIMISE SHAREHOLDER RETURN, not just manage the company.

Portfolio 2010 Mar 24

Updates:

CORE STOCKS (each stock >20% of total portfolio):
Haio (cum 6.52, ex 2.71) now 4.46/ or cum 10.70
Freight (0.62,0.70,0.73) now 0.79

BASKET of STOCKS (each stock <5% of total portfolio):
Adventa (1.86) now 3.50
Bonia (1.03) now 1.01
Hartalega (7.15) now 7.95
Homerizt (0.62) now 0.58
KSeng (RM5.96) now RM5.92
Notion (3.10) now 3.24
QL (3.20,3.39) now 3.41
TWReits (1.14) now 1.20
AMFirst (1.08) now 1.10
Stareit (RM0.835) now RM0.84
Sign (1.60) now 1.57
Maxis (4.75) now 5.35
Dialog (0.98) now 1.06
Wellcall (1.30) now 1.28


Note:
Some prices may be lower than current market price, but receiving HIGH dividend yearly from the stocks.

Transaction 2010 Mar 24

Transaction (Recent)
23/02/2010 Buy Homerizt RM0.62
24/02/2010 Buy QL RM3.39
01/03/2010 Buy Wellcall RM1.30
01/03/2010 Buy Freight RM0.70
08/03/2010 Buy Freight RM0.73
08/03/2010 Buy Amfirst RM1.08
08/03/2010 Buy Bonia RM1.03
15/03/2010 Buy Notion RM3.10
22/03/2010 SOLD Haio RM0.467
22/03/2010 Buy Stareit RM0.835
24/03/2010 Buy KSeng RM5.96

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Notion- Who is Nikon?

Nikon holds 10% of NOTION. I think most of you have heard of Nikon.
Here are some facts.

Nikon is established on 25/07/1971
Manufacture and sales of optical instrument
Head offcie in Japan
Total consolidated net sales for 12 months ended 31/03/2009 is >RM20 billion

For Nikon to hold 10% of NOTION shares, means there is value in NOTION.
Notion scratch Nikon's back, Nikon scratch Notion's back.

Where to eat in KL

Kopitiams & Coffee Shops
Food Courts/Medan Selera
Mamaks
Pasar Malams
Restaurants
Cafes and Pubs
Fine Dining Restaurants
Roadside

Ayam Brand to Replace Carlsberg as Liverpool Sponsor

This is not a news or rumours, but my suggestion.

Ayam Brand is famous for canned food, such as tuna, sardine, baked beans.

Please look at the logo and year of establishment carefully. Since both share the same logo (chicken) and year of establishment 1892, Ayam Brand should offer to sponsor Liverpool.
I still think there is a something between Liverpool and Ayam Brand, maybe their founders knew each other, or the founders was having a low profile hidden behind it.

Ayam Brand should also buy over Liverpool and inject the necessary cash for them to buy players.


Jokes 2010 Mar

Why don't lions eat clowns. Because they taste funny.
--------------
Teacher: "How come you do not comb your hair?"
Ah Kow: "No comb, Sir."
Teacher: "Use your dad's then."
Ah Kow: "No hair, Sir."
------------------
Plan For Future:
Teacher asks children, what do u wish 2 do in future?
Ram: I want 2 b a pilot.
Vinod: I want 2 b a doctor.
Linda: I want 2 b a good mother.
John: I want 2 help Linda.
----------------
Three Feelings:
What's the difference between stress, tension and panic?
Stress is when wife is pregnant, Tension is when girlfriend (mistress) is pregnant, and Panic is when both are pregnant.
--------------
Girl: Do you love me?
Boy: Yes Dear
Girl: Would you die for me?
Boy: No, mine is undying love

Stareit

Bought little bit of STAREIT at RM0.835.
They hold Starhill, Lot 10, etc.
No other reason, only because the net asset value is RM1.20

Haio- Sold 25 percent

Just sold 25 percent of my Haio at RM4.67
Reason is for portfolio adjustment.
Haio has went up a lot and form a very big
percentage of my portfolio. So I have to reduce it

Monday, March 22, 2010

Haio Result- OK

3rd quarter FY 04/2010 result within expectation.
Now the focus will be on Indonesian operation,
officially starting 2nd week of April.
Three months later we can have a glimpse
whether the Indonesia operation successful or not.
For better judgment, we only know in Sep2010.
By the way, don't forget Haio is trying to venture
into China within two years.

Select a Good Restaurant Location

Population/demographics
Parking
Accessibility (walking and driving)
Visibility
Rental/price
Ground floor and Corner
Neighbor
Competitor
Development/Future
Office/Residential
Safety
Buy or rent
Walking traffic
Easy to find/any landmark?
Cleanliness of surrounding
New road?
Etc etc

Saturday, March 20, 2010

Property Exhibition 2010 Mar

Just came back from Mid Valley. They are having Property Exhibition. Nothing much, all the properties there are either with sky prices or not in strategic location. My friend (a banker/property & stocks market investor) told me good property no need to be in exhibition.

I then went opposite hall to baby product exhibition and bought many things including a mini swimming pool with a height of 70cm.

Friday, March 19, 2010

Choong Khuat Hock

According to The Star, he has been murdered and
his body dumped in a drain near an oil palm
plantation in Bentong.

He is an analyst and I have read many of his articles
in The Edge and sometimes in The Star.
He recently also wrote on FREIGHT
(refer to my previous post).
Condolences to his family.

Sad day.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Blog

malaysiafinance blog
whereiszemoola blogspot

Freight- By The Edge

Nice write-up in The Edge on counter FREIGHT. Interested can go to..

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/component/content/article/155681.html

Why Still Can Sleep Like a Baby

Why those who made heavy losses in the stock market still can sleep like
a baby?
How baby sleep? Wake up every two hours and cry.

Top Glove Result- Good

As expected, Top Glove just announced a very good result. Earnings per
share (2nd Quarter 2010) is RM0.235, up 93% from 2Q09
Hopefully my Hartalega and Adventa will also announce good result,
somewhere in late April and early June respectively.

IPO

Previously when you strike IPO, means you strike lottery. You even use
your uncle's name, your neighbour, your son, your friend's daughter,
your cousin, your ex girl friend's name etc.
But now..... most of the counters prices are below IPO on the first day.

There are some IPO first day listing up more than 50%. So on average you
still gain if you strike all the IPO. But most of the time, you strike
those counters that below IPO price, and did not strike those above IPO
price.

I strike a few recently, and on average still gain. But now I am very
selective on IPO. Do some study before you apply.

Worth to buy ASTRO-CC?

Astro to be taken private at RM4.30
To convert Astro-CC to Astro
Exercise price is RM3.40
4 CC to convert to 1 Astro

Assuming you buy 40,000 cc at RM0.20
Total cost is RM8,000
End of the day if the deal go through
you will get RM4.30 - RM3.40 divided by 4
=RM0.225 X 40000shares= RM9000

So you will make RM1,000
Minus out brokerages and charges
you will make RM928.90
So your return on investment is about 11.5%
11.5% return over few months is good.


Risk...
If Astro pay dividend, then they will minus
out from the RM4.30, then you will get lower return
or even at a loss. But they have a RM0.05 dividend
clause (please refer to takeover announcement
by the offeror)

Astro price will collapse if the deal aborted.

Chelsea is Out

Chelsea is out of Champions League.
Losing 0-1 to Inter Milan (aggregate 1-3)
Even an EPL title this year can't console them.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

What is Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)

Dollar cost averaging is to reduce market risk through systematic purchase of securities at fixed intervals and fixed amounts.
Many successful investors are doing it without realizing it. Eg buying RM5,000 every month, quarterly or yearly.

Example of SIMPLE averaging
Jan 2010    RM10.00
Feb 2010   RM 8.00
Mar 2010   RM 6.00
Apr 2010    RM 9.00
So the simple average is RM33 / 4 = RM8.25


Example of Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) (RM10,000 per month)
Jan 2010 RM10.00,    so invest 1,000  shares
Feb 2010 RM 8.00,    so invest 1,250 shares
Mar 2010 RM 6.00,    so invest 1,666 shares
Apr 2010 RM 9.00,  so invest    1,111  shares
Total cost is RM40,000
Total shares is 5,027
So the DCA is RM7.95
Lower than SIMPLE average of RM8.25

Most of us don't know how to time the market. So we should buy periodically to get an average price. DCA helps us get price lower than Simple Average.


Setting Up Your Own Dollar Cost Averaging Plan
1)Decide what is your intervals? (eg monthly or quarterly)
2)Decide exactly how much money you can invest each interval
3)Select a 'good' stock to invest at every interval



Flexibility
1.Generally there are more Ups than Downs, so You may want to start big and invest smaller amount every intervals

2.Every interval you can buy different stock (to diversify)

3.You may buy SLIGHTLY different amount at each interval. It will not vary the average too much if you have bought fixed amount.

4. If you salary increased, you may want to increase your investment amount.



Most authors say it needs 12 months to see result, and may need to extend another 12 months if end of the first 12 months market is at rock bottom.

Gold- How to Invest

1.Buy physical Gold Bar/Coin
Public Bank, UOB, buying and selling spread about 3%
Can also buy from Goldsmith. The price is higher

2.Buy and keep in passbook just like an saving account
Public Bank buy and sell spread about 3%. Meaning you buy now and sell immediately, loss 3%. Maybank spread is higher

3.Gold Trading company
You buy slightly more expensive than the current market price and they rebate you 2.5% every month. Option to sell back to them at your purchase price on the 3rd month.

4. Gold Futures
I'm still learning on this. Leverage up to 4 times

Portfolio 2010 Mar 16

Update due to Haio went Ex.

CORE STOCKS (each stock >20% of total portfolio):
Haio (cum 6.52, ex 2.71) now 4.68/ or cum 11.23
Freight (0.62,0.70,0.73) now 0.80

BASKET of STOCKS (each stock <5% of total portfolio):
Adventa (1.86) now 3.50
Bonia (1.03) now 1.01
Hartalega (7.15) now 7.55
Homerizt (0.62) now 0.595
Notion (3.10) now 3.20
QL (3.20,3.39) now 3.40
TWReits (1.14) now 1.16
AMFirst (1.08) now 1.09
Sign (1.60) now 1.53
Maxis (4.75) now 5.29
Dialog (0.98) now 1.00
Wellcall (1.30) now 1.30

Note:
Some prices may be lower than current market price, but receiving HIGH dividend yearly from the stocks.

Haio Result Out Soon

HAIO result will be out anytime. Shall not speculate whether it is good or bad.
Shall wait and see, then only decide what to do

Today the counter just went Ex (Bonus 1 for 2 & Split 1 to 2)
Before ex RM10.40
After ex adjusted to RM4.33
Closed at RM4.68, up 8%

So my purchase price will also be adjusted from RM6.52 to RM2.71
Gain of 72% from the current price, excluding RM0.175 dividend

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

REITs- What is it?

REITs holds many properties (normally commercial) and rent it out.
The rental minus out charges/fee/interest will pay as dividends,
currently about 8% with potential appreciation of market value.

Many properties also can give us 8% return. But if you think carefully,
the loss of rental during changing of tenant, agent fee, maintenance
fees, etc, the return is much lower.

Vista Konmanwel, renting to IMU student, return (after charges) is <5.2%.
Fully furnished return is about 6.2%
This also assuming whole year FULL occupancy and excluding agent commission.
If we factor in occupancy rate and agent commission, the return is much lower.

REITs are not having full occupancy, but still can pay 8% return.
We don't have to worry about zero occupancy because they hold many units
of properties and the tenants moving in and out frequently.

I should NOT have bought TWreits and AMfirst. The return is just about 8%. I am looking for higher return.

Why I buy:
TWreits- Currently trading below the market value. One of the lowest
gearing, so they have potential to add in more properties and collect more rentals.

AMfirst- Maybe the new Subang LRT to be built next to Summit, their main property.

Actually the main reason I buy is..... better than put into bank. FD is just 2.25%. No harm putting a bit of our money in REITs

If you get 90% financing to buy property, go ahead.
But if you pay cash to buy property, then can consider REITs, good
return and can sell easily.

Glove Result

Top Glove will announce result on 17/03/2010.
I think probably good result.
I'm not sure, but maybe there will be another round of active trading in
glove company.
If you think TopGlove is expensive, then you can try other cheaper glove
company eg Adventa.

Portfolio 2010 Mar 15

15/03/2010 Buy Notion RM3.10

CORE STOCKS (each stock >20% of total portfolio):
Haio (6.52)
Freight (0.62)

BASKET of STOCKS (each stock <5% of total portfolio):
Adventa (1.86)
Bonia (1.03)
Hartalega (7.15)
Homerizt (0.62)
QL (3.20)
TWReits (1.14)
AMFirst (1.08)
Sign (1.60)
Maxis (4.75)
Dialog (0.98)
Wellcall (1.30)

Note:
Some prices may be lower than current market price, but receiving HIGH dividend yearly from the stocks.

Transaction 2010 Mar 15

Transaction (Recent)
23/02/2010 Buy Homerizt RM0.62
24/02/2010 Buy QL RM3.39
01/03/2010 Buy Wellcall RM1.30
01/03/2010 Buy Freight RM0.70
08/03/2010 Buy Freight RM0.73
08/03/2010 Buy Amfirst RM1.08
08/03/2010 Buy Bonia RM1.03
15/03/2010 Buy Notion RM3.10

Warren Buffet Stock Screening

6 general stock screening:

1.Has the company consistently performed well? ROE
2.Has the company avoided excess debt?
3.Are profit margins high? Are they increasing?
4.How long has the company been public?
5.Do the company's products rely on a commodity?
6.Is the stock selling at a 25% discount to its real value?

Notion- just added

Just bought NOTION at RM3.10
It was recommended by my colleague, an active trader for many years.

Listed in June 2005 under Mesdaq
Promoted to Main Market Aug 2008
Supplies high precision components to the world’s biggest manufacturers such as Western Digital, Hitachi, Nikon, etc.

Stock Screening:
PE: 9.2, but with projected EPS of RM0.625 in 2012, the PE will then drop to 5
Gearing: Low and turn Net cash in 2011
ROE: high 30%
Dividend yield: 3% only
Management: Good
Catalyst: Nil


Why you should buy:
Many brokers have started research papers on this counter and this definitely will improve on the stock coverage and Fund Managers interest
Some gives a fair value of RM4.50
High growth company, with projected growth >30% yearly for the next few years. PE will drop to 5 in 2012
Currently Nikon holds 10% of Notion, so it gives you some comfort
Gearing soon will be net cash and ROE high 30%
Well managed company. Their profit increase from RM14.4mil in 2004 to RM36mil in 2009

Revenue Net Profit
2004: 57mil 14.4mil
2009: 173mil 36.0mil


Why you should not buy:
Dividend yield just average, compensate by high growth
Valuation not at bargain, cheap but not at great bargain.

Can buy some and keep.

Monday, March 15, 2010

Bonia Why

Stock Screening:
PE: Low
ROE: High
Gearing: Net cash

Management: Ok. PNB holds 10%, so the management is pressured to produce good result
every year.

Catalyst: Nil.

Why you should buy:
Some broker has a BUY call on this. So follow them, they are the expert.
Very low PE and SUPERB HIGH dividend.
Year 2009 Bonia Revenue is RM315mil and Net Profit RM23.6mil
Year 2013 Management target is RM500mil and RM50mil (112% increase in four years)

Imagination:
Just imagine your stock increase 112% in four years and at the same time receiving additional 8% dividend per year.

But do you think they can achieve their internal target? Wishing all the best to BONIA.

No catalyst, so DON'T buy big

QL not cheap why buy

QL is doing Marine Procuts Manufacturing, Crude Palm Oil Milling and Integrated Livestock Farming

PE: Not low, ok only
ROE: high >20%
Gearing : Average
Dividend yield: Average

Management: Excellent!!! They are one of the only few companies that profit keep increase yearly without fail for the past 9 to 10 years, even during economy crisis.
The management team is so strong that they produce excellent result since listed.

My friend has QL share, and the stock has mutiply >7 times in 9 years. FD only gives <40% return in 9 years but QL gives >600%.

Catalyst:
Their new technology, QL AgriPellet is derived from palm residue, known as empty fruit bunches (EFB). EFB is a waste product of palm oil processing and can emit methane (CH4) in landfill sites if it is left untreated. QL’s proprietary technology provides a solution to reduce methane emission while producing sustainable fuel for biomass plants. Unlike other biomass, this has lower emission.

Reason for you to buy:
1)Very strong management team
2)New technology
3)High ROE
4)Excellent track record
5)Many brokers have a BUY call on QL.

Reason for noy buying
1)New technology got uncertainty
2)Valuation not cheap, fair

Why I bought
It is not cheap, so I didn't buy many. This is more for longer terms. Our money will grow in QL because of strong management and high ROE. Public Bank also not cheap, but people trust the management to keep producing good result. Many brokers also have a BUY call on QL, and they are the expert. Furthermore, if the biomass thing can make money, then it will be a bonus.

As for you, buy only if you want to diversify and don't rely too much on QL.

Saturday, March 13, 2010

Freight up >10%

Freight has gone up >10% within 2 weeks since I added more holding. Made right decision to include Freight into my FOCUS stock.

Got time I will post the bad judgement that I have made, so that you will not repeat. But after I have followed Warren Buffet's strategy, investment have improved a lot.

HOMERITZ

I’m a fan of Warren Buffet. One of his stock selection criteria is years of good public listed company track record.
Homeritz is just listed on 19/02/2010, so there’s no track record.

Why I bought:
Some gives a fair value of RM0.99 (IPO is RM0.65), so the PE ratio and dividend yield is based on RM0.99, looks very good.
But if base on current market price, the figure improve by 37%, looks extraordinary better
ROE is >40% !!!
Dividend yield 12.0% !!!
50% dividend payout ratio commitment
PE just 5.2
No gearing
Future plan: Set up new manufacturing operations in Vietnam. Constructing new factory
I bought not many, just for fun because the figure looks very very cheap. Imagine dividend yield 12% and ROE >40% with no gearing

Why you should NOT buy:
Majority customers are from Europe and now Europe is facing pressure (but they are trying to diversify to other countries)
No track record for us to assess. The forecast figure may not be attainable
Lack of research coverage

The price of Homeritz actually went down a lot from my purchase price but I’m not worried because I bought not many.
But if they can achieve the forecast profit, and to establish track record in another one or two quarters, then this stock will JUMP.
I am taking high risk with very minimum investment, but the return can be very high.

Many investor including me are not disciplined enough to follow Warren Buffet strategy. But what we can do is to limit our investment when taking high risk decision.

Friday, March 12, 2010

Follow Who

Economist ask to sell, economy not doing well
Analyst ask to buy- the company cheap, profit growing
Day Trader ask to buy in the morning and sell in the afternoon
Chartist say sell signal
Public say sell, market sentiment not good
Contra player say buy now and sell T+4
Friend say buy now is cheap

Who to Follow?

I don't know. So I normally use a very simple Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA).
I am going to sleep now. Other day I'll post something on DCA, pro and con and my own enhanced version.

Beauty of Stock Market

IOI was up 1,102% for the past 10 years.Assuming someone invested just RM10k in IOI ten years ago, now will be having RM10k + RM110,200= RM120,100.

Also not forgeting the dividend received for the past ten years (normally for IOI is about 3% a year).

Topglove grown 4,000% in the same period.

Bank saving account or current account interest rate is about <1%.

Current FD is 2%p.a (superb low), average about 3% past 10 years.

If put 10k in FD, now only having mere RM13.5k

Remember the maximum you can lose is 100%, but the maximum you can gain is UNLIMITED.
If invested RM10k, max lose is RM10k. But max gain is ?????

Focus/Core

I normally buy a basket of stocks to diversify but focus big on a few stocks that are my top pick.

2010:
Haio again
Freight (Bought 0.62 in end of 2009, bought again 0.70 in 2010) hold

2009:
Tamcorp (bought 0.305-0.355, capital repayment 0.30, sold 0.05-0.07, PROFIT)
Haio (bought 6.52, holding)
Evergreen (not my focus, bought 0.555 sold 1.59, 1.1+, 1.3+). Good profit but bought not much, i consider not a mistake, but bonus.

Haio Ex for Bonus and Split

HAIO will go ex for bonus (1 for 5) and split (1 to 2) on 16/03/2010. Hopefully more affordable to the public and will create more buying interest.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Portfolio 2010 Mar 10

CORE STOCKS (each stock >20% of total portfolio):
Haio (6.52)
Freight (0.62)


BASKET of STOCKS:

Adventa (1.86)
Bonia (1.03)
Hartalega (7.15)
Homerizt (0.62)
QL (3.20)
TWReits (1.14)
AMFirst (1.08)
Sign (1.60)
Maxis (4.75)
Dialog (0.98)
Wellcall (1.30)

Note:
Some prices may be lower than current market price, but receiving HIGH dividend yearly from all stocks.

Haio

Many brokers have just upgraded Haio target price and some gives RM12.70

STOCK CRITERIA:
PE: Low
ROE: High
Dividend Yield: High
Gearing: Net Cash
Management: Good

Catalyst:
1)Most analysts have NOT factored in the Indonesian venture contribution. They will upgrade again when the profit is coming in. The management already told them the Indonesian operation is running smoothly but analyst is just too conservative.

2)Technology breakthrough

3)Venture into China within two years

4)Share Split and Bonus Issue

Notes:
They have won Forbes awards (one of the best company) for few years

Thursday, March 4, 2010

FREIGHT MANAGEMENT

STOCK CRITERIA:
PE: Low
ROE: High
Dividend Yield: High
Gearing: Net Cash soon
Management: Good

Catalyst:
http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2010/03/freight-management-better-coverage-now.html

Chart looks good
Some gives fair value RM1.40
S&P recommended STRONG BUY

Followers

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