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Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Bayu @ Pandan Jaya review

This afternoon went to Bayu @ Pandan Jaya, total 3 blocks. Block B and Block C have been fully sold, except one middle unit and one corner unit at the highest floor and the price is RM553k and RM541k respectively. They said Block A will be open for sale mid of January 2012.
The location is immediately after the Pandan Jaya LRT station. Block A is nearest, just after the car park of the LRT station. It is along the LRT track heading the MRR2 direction. But in front of Block A, there is a water treatment plant.

The starting price is RM450k and I randomly picked a unit on 7th floor, the price is RM499,000.

They only have one direction. All the balcony are facing KL Centre, and can view KLCC indirectly. All the main doors with corridor are facing LRT tracks . Because they only have one direction, the density per floor is quite low, only 8 unit per floor.

2 car parks per unit. As usual they will absorb the legal fees for S&P. But buyer will have to pay the bank loan legal fee.

Developer is Extensive Gain Sdn Bhd. Melati Ehsan Group. They asked Kim Realty to sell. Melati stock is listed on Bursa Malaysia and Melati share price is RM0.74 very thinly traded and most of the times are untraded.

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Friday, July 29, 2011

Is GOLD money? Or is it a commodity?

Nice article for reading.

If gold were simply bought for its industrial use things would be much simpler...

IS GOLD money? Or is it a commodity? asks Julian Phillips of GoldForecaster.

If gold is a commodity then it rises and falls as a result of the ebb-and-flow of the economies that use it. If so, it will move in synch with the financial markets cycles and remain subject to their dominance. But when it comes to gold and silver, nothing is that simple!

If the bulk of the demand for a commodity is contracted to buyers, then the only influence these contracts have on the price of the commodity is through the referencing of that supply to the market price.
The supply of the metal in the open market outside of contracted amounts is the quantity of that metal that determines the price of the metal. Call it the 'marginal' demand or supply. This supply is sent to the open market for buying by non-contracted buyers. It could be just to top up for unforeseen demand, or it could be to sell overbought amounts. This determines the liquidity of the market.

On top of that, speculators frequently enter the market taking a view on demand and supply expectations, taking off supplies to force prices higher or introducing them, to force prices lower. In a pure commodity market, these views are based on industrial demand/supply expectations.

But gold is not so simple or predictable. Most buyers of gold do not Buy Gold for its industrial use. Where it is used in industry it is done so for hi-tech purposes, which is relatively price-insensitive. So the price of gold has little bearing on the demand from industry.

Gold is used to decorate people in its Western jewelry application. There is little sense of showing off the extent of your wealth when wearing gold in the West. Additions of jewels and artistic presentations add so much to the cost of such jewelry that the price of gold in such jewelry is a minor factor. This type of jewelry demand does fluctuate with the state of an economy, but such demand is a small component of the gold market.

In the past it has been an influential one, particularly before the eastern markets 'emerged'. Add to this the determination of the jewelry trade to extend Buying Gold down to poorer people's levels by lowering the purity of the gold sold. This increased the vulnerability of the Gold Price to the state of the developed world economies. Such demand became the 'swing' factor in the Gold Price.

This too was at a time when central banks were not only out of the gold markets but encouraging a heavy increase in supply. As a result, analysts' studies placed great emphasis on western jewelry demand.
Then at the turn of the century, the gold market changed its shape. Asian markets 'emerged'. The driving force behind their buying was totally different to western attitudes. They followed the maxim, "One buys gold, not to make money, but because one has money."

The gold bought was nearly pure. It was bought because it was treated as money and money of a higher quality than currencies. When used in jewelry, it was a statement of the financial security of the wearer. Nothing could be more different than the Western view of jewelry. Central banks changed their attitudes to holding and selling gold then too.

These structural changes altered the dynamics of the gold markets. Over time, investment demand grew to become by far the greatest source of demand for gold. In addition, central bank-inspired supplies (through their encouragement of increased supplies) stopped and gold producers became a source of demand. This happened for a while as they bought back previously sold gold. Central banks cut back on their supplies to the market until they stopped selling and other central banks began buying.

But more was changing in the gold markets. As the ability of currencies to give an accurate measure of monetary values decayed, gold began to fill the hole they left. This aspect of value grew to the point that the Robert Zoellick, head of the World Bank suggested that gold be used as a reference for value measurement. The concept has taken hold again, but as a banker, Mr. Zoellick has remained silent since then. His silence, while deafening, has reaffirmed gold's inherent value. After all, as Alan Greenspan, the most famous Fed Chairman said, 'Gold is money in extreme times'.

Its monetary value lies in its remarkable quality of being both an asset and liquid cash, globally and in all circumstances.

Currencies can't be this. They remain the obligations of one nation or another, dependent entirely on the reputation of the nation printing them. Gold is considered money, without the strings that are attached to national money. Investors from central bankers to Indian or Chinese rural farmers believe that gold is a counter to unbacked currencies issued, at will, by national governments all over the world.

Gold has no nation.

It carries nobody's obligations.

It's what enemies will accept from each other.

The concept of consuming gold is no longer a part of this gold world. These structural changes cut gold off from being just a commodity.

Gold is not a commodity!

Julian D.W. Phillips, 21 Jul '11

More info on Gold

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Thursday, April 21, 2011

Can you afford a property for investment?

This is for INVESTMENT. I will work on an example and you see whether you can afford that or not.

RM300,000 double storey linked house (outside KL or Klang Valley)
Rental RM800 per month
Salary RM4000, spouse RM3600
Bank loan RM270,000 for 30 years
Installment per month RM1300
Cash RM30,000 to pay down-payment.
Then withdraw EPF RM30,000 and now having cash RM30,000

As we know, many people don’t have money left at the end of the month.
Rental income is just $800, how to pay the installment of RM1300?

Rental is RM800 per month, and assuming on average of few years, you can only get 10 months of rental income per year due to change of tenant, expenses, etc.
So your rental income per year is RM8,000.
Your installment per year is RM15600.
You short of RM7,600.

Where to get the RM7600?
You and your wife commit one month of bonus each year, RM4000 + RM3600 = RM7600.
Some companies or some banks normally pay out minimum 2 months of bonus.
One month you commit to property and the other month to minus tax and EPF and other things that you need to use or pay.

One Big question.  What if there is no tenant?
Will you buy a property that is no tenant? You need to survey before you buy. We just assume market is bad and sometimes no tenant.

In the above, you have already buffered that you only have 10 months rental income in a year. With RM30,000 cash in hand, you can afford to suffer another 23 months without rental. 
If you always have tenant and only occasional no tenant, the RM30,000 can last for more than 10 years. After 10 years, you decide whether to sell or not.

With RM4000 per month salary, you will also be adding RM276 per month into your EPF Account Two that later can also be withdrawn to pay the installment. With bonus, after 5 years, your EPF account two will have more than RM20000 and you can instruct EPF to pay your installemt. That will also last you for 1 year plus.

The above example is on buying a high price house with low rental income.
You can look for condo that is cheaper and with high rental income, and therefore the financial situation will be better. But normally condo appreciation is less than house.

Whether we can afford the property for INVESTMENT depends on our income or salary, savings, rental income, property price, etc.

More on property and my blog.



Friday, March 25, 2011

Worth to invest in 4D? Or stock market is better?

For those who are not familiar with 4D, let me explain.

4D is gaming or betting.
Customer will pick a Four digit numbers from 0000 to 9999.
For every $1 bet, Prizes are:

First price $2,500 X 1.
Second price $1,000 X 1.
Third price $500 X 1
Special Prize $200 ( 10 numbers will get $200 each).
Consolation prize $60 (10 numbers will get $60 each).

What are your chances?
Base on what we have learned from school, if you buy $1 for all the numbers from 0000 to 9999, you need to pay $10,000.
Your total winnings will be just $6,600. Yes, ONLY $6,600.

What if you just buy $10 on one number?
On an average or base on probability, your $10 will become $6.6.

One week got three draws. Assuming you buy $10 on every draw for one year (52 weeks).
You would have invested $1,560 and you will end up with just $1,029.60. You lose $530.40, or 34%.
If you buy from two gaming companies, your losses will be double. Three gaming companies, then X3.

I heard now the special price is just RM180 and not RM200. That means you are getting worse.

In stock market, if the company is growing at an average 10% per year and dividend yield is 5%, on an average you probably will be making about 15% per year. The more you invest, you more you make.

Minimum to buy 4D is $1.00.
If I am an analyst, I would rate 4D a STRONG SELL.
Current 4D share price is $1.00, and my target price fair value for 4D is $0.66 (STRONG SELL).

Many will argue that it is based on luck. Some strike few hundred thousands.
Yes, congratulations.

But for those 99.77% of majority who are not so lucky, the more you invest, the more you lose. The longer you invest, the more you lose. The more operator companies you buy from, the more you lose. You want to invest in 4D?

The above is based on what have been learned in school on chances. Off course, some can buy one number and strike.

Go to my blog for more.


About Me

Dollar Cost Averaging and PEGGY Method. Sharing info on cheap (low PE) company with high growth, low Gearing or Net Cash and High Dividend Yield.



Disclaimer Clause
The information contained in this blog is my personal diary and has been prepared solely for myself. Without any previous reading material or discussion, by just reading my blog contents, reader may misunderstand the contents.
All the contents I am talking to myself and most contents are hypothetical or imaginary. I REPEAT !!! most contents are hypothetical or imaginary!!!!!
This blog has been compiled in good faith, with no intention to cause hurt, loss, or any trouble. No representation is (either express or implied) as to the completeness or accuracy of the information it contains.
This blog also is not an advice, recommendation or an invitation to buy or sell or invest in anything, eg shares, futures, derivatives, gold, etc. Consult your investment adviser before making any decisions.
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