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Sunday, December 25, 2016

One Morning One Night in Bursa, EG, Hang Seng Call Warrant, Biohldg, Prolexus, Superlon, Bioalpha

My chinese friends said 一朝一夕 means one morning one night. It means very short period of time. In stock market investment (not trading), the result is not 一朝一夕. That's why many people have given up. Every day look at the screen and feel sad asking why their stocks prices didn't go up and some were down.

We must remember investmemt is not 一朝一夕 yī zhāo yī xī. In cantonese it is pronounced as YatJioYatJic.

Many days ago saw many Hang Seng HSI call warrants suddenly dropped a lot. For sure there will be a lot of losses. Be careful of trading in call warrants especially HSI because of huge premium and you are fighting against time.

If you buy call warrant C hoping market good you make money, and you buy put warrant H hoping to make money when market down, yes sound very easy. BUT, but and but there is something called premium. Most of the call or put warrants are trading at a huge premium. The prices will continue to drop until they reaches expiry, unless there is a very BIG swing up or down in Hang Seng. Another example is C may down 5% a week, but H may up only 2% a week. If you bought correctly you make 2% or 20% for example, but if you bought wrongly you may lose 5% or 23%. Therefore, it is not a 50 50 chance. Be careful.

Read from news that the 3rd quarter "EARNINGS CONTINUE TO BLEED". What it meant was many companies announced bad result. But most of the stocks in my list are performing okay in terms of profits or prices.

EG and Superlon announced normal good result. Prices reacted a bit positive.

BioHldg Bioalpha rights issue ceased trading. It will take many months or couple of years for them to use the money from rights issue to expand and bring in good additional profits.

PrLexus result bad. Price also dropped. The growth will be from the completion of new plants in 2017.

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Saturday, December 3, 2016

Make Money From Stock Market is about FUTURE, and not just past ROI, Cash Flow, Dividend, etc

Sometimes I read a lot of arguements and disputes about who right and who is wrong.

I summarised these people into 3
1)Too much historical FA. HFA
2)Balance Approach- Future and Valuation. BL
3)Simplified Future. SF

There is one group of people who like Historical Fundamental Analysis. Talking about net asset per share, PE ratio, dividend, cash, etc. Mostly about historical. 

If a company PE ratio is super low, 4 times, a good buy. But what if the profit drop next two years? You may lose money.

If the asset worth RM10 per share, now selling at RM6 per share, good buy. But if profit keep dropping or no increase, we may not make money. Unless we are the owner, we buy at RM6 and then sell the whole company at RM10.

They will show you numbers,  then numbers and lastly numbers until your kepala pening "headache".
Don't get me wrong. All these are important. But we should spend more time thinking and searching info about the future. Nobody know about the future. You are half right. If your son is in Form 3, next year in the Future he will be in form 4. But sometimes unforeseen things happen. He decided to stop studying and concentrate on badminton and you got it wrong. We don't know 100% about the future but we can forecast based on information that we have.

Balance. These group of people talk more about future, eg icon sifu. Most of the info he shared are about future, the project, the expansion, the new orders, etc. He shared details things of future. He uses and also shares past records eg profit margin, but is for the purpose of analysing the trend, future and worth. Focus mainly on future. But he doesn't stop there, he also values the stock, whether the current price are expensive. Example no point buying a stock if the profit will grow 100% but the share price is already up 300%. That's why he also touches on PE ratio etc.

Analysts are the same. They forecast and they value. That is why in research report only few simple tables showing some important figures and forecast. They don't too much about ROI, net asset per share, etc.
For me, this is the best approach.

Some just said the stock is good if the profit is growing. This is too simplified. That is why you can see many stocks 3 months later announce profit up 90% but the share price hardly move within this 3 months, because the stock price already up or PE ratio already very high.

Just Vitamin C is not enough, that's why we need multivitamin.

I have attended a 2 full days course on fundamental, it did not benefit me much because they focus too much on cash, dividend, current ratio, etc. I thought that was just one topic, maybe Level 2 talk about Future. I went to chat with them, that's all, they just invest based in historical fundamental. The tutor was also quite surprise on the high % gain made by someone attended the course also. I know why, because they focus too much on dividend and stable stock, their return per year will not be high.
Investment is about Future and Valuation. Not just future and not just valuation.

Not to say I am "Mr Know It All", I don't know all and I am learning. But because lack of time, I don't really read those just talk mainly on fundamental. Because I only have 24 hours a day, I focus on those who talk about Future and Valuation.

With this would like to thank all analysts and those who contribution information generously.
Thank you.

Saturday, November 12, 2016

Strong USD stocks, Top 30 stocks to buy. So many to choose from

Ringgit weaken again. For those who are interested to know stocks benefited from strong USD or weak Ringgit, refer here.

Saw many people sharing cold eye stocks below. He is one of the famous investors in Malaysia. His name is in many listed companies top 30 shareholder list.

2016年11月5日, 冷眼分享会个股关注名單 ColdEyes Top 30 Stocks Pick:
>RM 3 (高价股)

RM 1-3 (中价股)

<RM 1 (低价股)

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Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Sell Your Mother, Sell Your Car and Sell Your House. It Is Time To Sai Lang on MFCB-WA

Don’t misinterpret, sell your mother means for those who have MFCB mother shares, may work out computation on the potential upside vs risk on the mother share vs the MFCB-WA warrant and see whether MFCB’s son the warrant has better return than the mother or not.

It is not literally sell our mothers. We all know we love our mothers.

Sell Your Car and Sell Your House, I copy these phrase from ICON. All these words are a way to say go big into it. It is not literally to sell our cars and sell our houses. Just like the famous phrase “durian drop, sarong up”. It doesn’t mean we sell our sarong to buy durian, it is a way of saying durian is extremely nice to eat.

For more info, please refer to my previous 3 articles on MFCB-WA.

By the way, the above is not a recommendation. Always seek professional advice on shares trading. The above is something to lighten up after two weeks of boring market where the Dow Jones index dropped for don’t know how many consecutive days.

Have a nice week ahead.
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Tuesday, October 25, 2016

MFCB Warrant Upside Potential table

Update from my previous post. How to read the table.

RM2.23 is MFCB current share price and warrant is RM0.675.

If MFCB up 35% to RM3.00 and the warrant trade at 20% premium, then MFCB-WA will be RM1.40, 107% upside potential.

You can ignore those in blue as I don’t think that can be achieved. Because the higher the share price and warrant price, the lower the premium.

MFCB medium target price is RM3.16 given by Public Investment Bank research analyst.
If MFCB up 42% to RM3.16 and the warrant trade at 20% premium, then MFCB-WA will be RM1.60, 137% upside potential.

MFCB long term fair value is RM4.43 given by Public Investment Bank research analyst.
If MFCB up 99% to RM4.43 and the warrant trade at 0% premium, then MFCB-WA will be RM2.23, 230% upside potential.

For those who have lack of long term faith, MFCB at RM3.16 does not look super difficult. Upside potential for warrant will be 137%.

As usual, 100% loss. Max.

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Tuesday, October 18, 2016

MFCB-WA can up 270% or 140% in 3 years?

MFCB Target Price RM4.43 - exercise price of RM2.20 = RM2.23

Divided by MFCB Warrant price RM0.60 = upside of 270% !!
Medium term 12 months upside is 70% +.
My conservation calculation is 140% upside for 3 years.

MFCB have this USD500m (RM2bn) Don Sahong hydropower project which has been on track, reaching 10% completion as of Aug 2016. The deadline to complete the project is31 Dec 2019 while commercial operation is scheduled to take place in early 2020.

Public Investment Bank's analyst said expecting a more than 3-fold jump in earnings.

I also tell you the bad points, may lose 70% of Group revenue (RM51.8 X 70% = RM36.26mil) and diluting with warrants.

2015 net profit RM51.8 million.
1-fold jump in profit RM51.8 million + RM51.8mil = RM103.6 million.
3-fold jump in profit = RM51.8 X 3 + RM51.8mil = RM207.2 million 
207.2m - losing 36.26m profit = RM170.94million

Shares issued 401.9m, + warrants 67.3m = 469.2
Earnings per share RM0.364
X 10 times PE ratio = RM3.64
Warrant in the money price =  RM3.64 deduct exercise price RM2.20 = RM1.44
Warrant Price now RM0.60.
= 140% upside.

140% is a conservative figure.
For those medium term 12 months MFCB Target Price given by Public Investment Bank RM3.16.
MFCB Target Price RM3.16 - exercise price of RM2.20 = RM0.93
Divided by MFCB Warrant price RM0.60 = upside of 55% in 12 months.
12 months for sure will still trade at premium, so the upside could be 70%.

1)I use fully diluted from warrants.
2)Between now and 3 years later, MFCB may get new projects
3)The China concession expiry in 2022, another 6 years. And they may not lose it.
4)PE ratio is only 10 times. Historical is more than 10x???
5)Analyst said earning more than 3-fold. The above assumption is only 3-Fold.

Public Investment Bank analyst said . . . ..
The Laos hydropower project could fetch as much as RM4.43/share. Upon the full commercial operation of the hydropower plant, we forecast that the Don Sahong Hydropower could contribute as much as RM4.43/share (WACC: 7%) based on our DCF valuation. As of now, we apply a higher WACC of 10% coupled with a 30% discount for the risk exposure during the construction period, which yields a valuation of RM2.26/share. All-in, our SOP-based TP is revised upwards from RM2.29 to RM3.16.

Let's said we don't bother about my own analysis, purely go for MFCB target price of RM4.43 in the future, the potential upside of RM4.43 is a lot.

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Sunday, September 18, 2016

List of Export counters due to Strong US Dollar

Don't play play, now is almost RM4.20.

Below are the list of export oriented stocks. They will make more profit when the USD is up.

I'm not saying that now is the time to buy export counters. Sharing of info only. By the way, I don't gain by sharing info, and always receive criticism. People will leave some nasty comments in my blog and facebook. Is like eating nice durian, hope others can enjoy. I'll be glad if my sharing can help others. If you think my method is wrong or need to be improved, why don't you guide me. I'm also still learning.

If you buy USD, USD up 1%, you make 1%. Some of the stocks below if USD up 1%, their profit could up 1.5% or some companies 2%. So, if you want to benefit from USD or hedge against USD, you may consider stocks that can gain at least 1% or more from 1% up of USD.
But some companies also will make less than 1% if USD up 1%.

It is also better to look for companies with good prospect, high dividend yield, high target price or fair value. In case the USD does not go up, at least the stock also can go up due to higher profit or receive good dividend.
People said avoid stocks with no prospect. They may gain from USD, but profit may down due to much lower sales.

The list below are 12 months ago, but most are still valid. Do your own research. Their share prices are the latest and target prices are quite recent. The target price I roughly average it if got few brokers. If I didn't indicate any target price means unable to find.

Some are not export stocks, but are benefited from strong USD or weakening of Ringgit (example strong Yen or Euro). They may have operations in overseas.

I also list those have negative impact from weakening of Ringgit.

Once again, sharing of information only, I may have typo or the info may be outdated. Check with your finacial planner.

The target price or fair value are BEFORE the straightening of USD to near RM4.20 now (RM4.15??). If USD up, the Target Price later will also be up.

I also list down those are negatively impacted by weakening of Ringgit. Don't mix up. DO NOT MIX UP.

POSITIVE from weakening of Ringgit:
Eversendai share price RM0.47, target price RM0.65

Rubber product manufacturers, semiconductor firms and furniture producers, because their costs are mainly in Ringgit while sales are mainly in USD.

Top Glove RM4.69, TP RM5.50
Supermax RM2.15, TP RM2.60
Hartalega RM4.40, TP RM4.30
Kossan RM6.25, TP RM7.50
Karex RM2.40, TP RM2.31

Furniture and Wood Related.
Homeritz share price RM0.885, Target Price RM1.09
Evergreen share price RM0.92, Target price RM1.48
Heavea RM1.25
TAANN RM3.51, TP RM5.00
Latitud RM4.64, TP RM5.15
SHH RM1.77

Semiconductor or IT RELATED
Vitrox RM3.83, TP RM3.70
Last year Maybank said 1% USD up, Vitrox bottomline up 2%.
INARI, RM3.31, TP RM3.30
UNISEM RM2.70, TP RM2.85
MPI RM7.93, TP RM8.48
EG RM0.84, TP RM1.02

Because some of the operations are in overseas.
GenM RM4.37, TP RM4.50
GenM family Genting RM7.76, TP RM9.15

Daibochi  RM2.25, TP RM2.14
Tomypak RM1.66, TP RM2.00
Thong Guan TGUAN  RM4.28, TP RM4.88

MISC RM7.53, RM8.10
WCT RM1.65, TP RM1.85
TIMECOM, RM8.42, TP RM7.28
Hovid RM0.375
IQGroup RM2.24, TP RM2.75
Kawan RM3.79
Asiafile RM3.68 ASIAFLE

You see this CSCENIC, there was one quarter it said although USD is strong, their profit was not good because undercut by Europe competitors. I think Euro also dropped against the USD, not sure. So you must determine whether is USD strong, or Ringgit weak.
VS??? Share price RM1.33, target price RM1.75

PRELEXUS. PRLEXUS because manufacture for NIKE.
Cimb and Unimech??? Benefit from weak Ringgit due to their Indonesia operations?
OCK probably may not benefit from strong USD but may benefit from weak Ringgit because of their South East Asia opeartions. I may be wrong but this is with my limited info.

Not sure about the below list...????

NEGATIVE from weakening of Ringgit. Do NOT mix up, below are negative. Bad from strong USD or weak Ringgit.

Company that import raw materials in USD but sell in Ringgit and those who have USD debt.

Automotive Sector
Tan Chong
Last year Kenanga said 1% fluatuation in USD, UMW's bottomline could be affected by 3%. Tan Chong is 6%.
Berjaya Auto RM2.30, TP RM2.55
MBMR RM2.52, TP RM2.68

Because many borrowings are in USD. Fuel cost also. Unless they have hedged it.
You guys know AirAsia much better than me.

Many telcos have borrowings in USD.
Axiata RM5.32, TP RM5.20
Because most content costs are in USD but sales are in Ringgit.

IJM- USD debt

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Sunday, September 11, 2016

IQgroup stock research analysis

By Tan Jiahui | Shares Investment – Wed, Sep 7, 2016 

Remember the first time you walked into a room that automatically lights up? While rare in the past, many buildings are now equipped with smart lighting systems, which uses sensors to detect and control lighting to achieve energy efficiency.

Today, sensors are also commonly used in numerous applications including car park space monitoring, central heating and air-conditioning systems (using thermostats) and speed cameras. As the world move towards the vision of the Internet of Things (IoT), sensors which can collect and transmit data back to cloud servers play an important role.

With potential seen in the market for sensor-based products, we zoom in on IQ Group Holdings (IQ Group), a motion sensor lighting producer listed in Malaysia.

Business – Most Revenue from Europe, Japan, and the US

IQ Group, founded in Penang, Malaysia in 1989, is principally engaged in the design and manufacturing of sensor products which includes passive infrared detectors, motion sensor light controllers, wireless video communication devices, door bells and home security system products.
Subsequently, the group formed a joint venture with Taiwan-based SemiLEDs Optoelectronics Co to diversify into the development, design and manufacture of light-emitting diode (LED) luminaires, hoping to ride on the growing LED market.

The company operates under both the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and original design manufacturer (ODM) business models, with manufacturing facilities located in Penang and Dongguan, China. The group derives most of its revenue from customers in Europe, Japan and the US, and main customers of the firm are said to include big names like OSRAM, OPTEX Co and Hager.

The core technologies of the firm focus on passive infrared (PIR) sensors which operate by monitoring the background ‘temperature’), and wire-free door chimes and video intercom systems.
Turnaround Story – Recovered from GFC; Revenue and Net Profit Growing

Looking at IQ Group’s past operating performance, things were not all smooth for the firm. The company fell into losses for three consecutive financial years from FY09 to FY11 before making a turnaround in FY12.

The group’s performance in those periods was dragged down by poor economic conditions during the global financial crisis, coupled with a rise in manufacturing costs, particularly in China. IQ Group then underwent a successful restructuring exercise (completed in FY11) and streamlined its processes to improve efficiency and reduce costs, which helped return it to profitability.

In the past five financial years from FY12 to FY16, the firm’s top and bottom lines have been on a general uptrend. Revenue and net profit grew at compounded annual growth rate of 6.3 percent and 35 percent over the period to reach RM190.9 million and RM20.9 million respectively.
While there was a dip in earnings in FY13, we note that it was due to foreign exchange loss of RM1.6 million and the absence of disposal gains amounting to RM4.2 million recorded in FY12. Net margin has also been improving and held steady at 10.8 percent and 10.9 percent for FY15 and FY16 respectively.

Strong Balance Sheet And Cash Flows – 30% of Market Cap
In terms of financial strength, IQ Group boasts a cash-rich balance sheet that is free of debts. As of 30 June 2016, the firm’s net cash stood at approximately RM56.8 million (including short-term deposits), which translates to roughly 30.8 percent of its market capitalisation of RM184.4 million as of 5 September.

On the cash flows front, the group has posted positive operating cash flows in all of the past years except for FY11. We like that the company’s free cash flows have also been positive in the latest four financial years from FY13 to FY16. The strong cash generating capabilities have, in turn, allowed IQ Group to build up its cash reserves.

As business recovered and cash pile grew, the firm rewarded shareholders with the resumption of dividend payout in FY15. Based on the share price of RM2.09 as at 5 September’s close, IQ Group’s FY16 dividend per share of RM0.10 translated to a decent yield of 4.8 percent.

Management: In-house Brand LED Lighting Expected To Drive Growth
In the past few years, IQ Group has developed its own intelligent lighting solutions, which was launched in early 2015 under the Lumiqs brand. Lumiqs LED products are equipped with wireless transceivers and can be programmed to grow dimmer or brighter according to movement of people in an area, allowing up to 90 percent energy saving.

Currently, the Lumiqs range of products are mainly targeted at the industrial and commercial markets but the firm is developing and designing a new sensor lighting offering (projected to be released by 2018) to be used in small commercial premises and residential households. According to the firm, orders for the Lumiqs lighting solutions have already started coming in from South-East Asian countries, Japan, Australia, and Switzerland.

The group expects its in-house brand name LED products to be its driver of growth in the next five years. Riding on a forecast that the global LED market will hit US$42.7 billion by 2020, the company targets for the Lumiqs brand to generate 10 percent of its total revenue by 2018, and 30 percent by 2020.

Based on a share price of RM2.09, the company’s shares are trading at a trailing twelve months price to earnings ratio (P/E) of 8.7 times, which seems reasonable given the company’s performance and growth prospect. In contrast, Taiwan-listed peer Everspring Industry Co (Everspring) trades at a P/E of 25.3 times. While Everspring’s market capitalisation is about three times that of IQ Group, we note that the former’s latest full year net profit is only about 10 percent higher.

Overall, we foresee the demand for the IQ group’s products to rise as people become more conscious about the environment and saving energy. Additionally, with the increasing popularity of the IoT, the company is in a good position to capitalise on the trend using its innovation and expertise.

Wednesday, September 7, 2016

IQ GROUP stock- Grows Brighter When You Walk Nearer

Standard Analysis:
PE Ratio:  8.8x (Past 4 Quarters)
Dividend yield: 4.7%
Net cash RM0.54 per share. 27% of share price.

IQ-group is an established global leader in the design & manufacture of lighting, security and convenience products, working with some of the world’s major retail and professional brands.
Over their 25+ year history they have built up an enviable reputation for design, innovation, quality and value within our core technologies, encompassing motion sensors, LED lighting and wirefree door entry products.

Employing approximately 1300 people globally, they boast manufacturing operations in Malaysia and China, plus offices in Taiwan, Japan and the United Kingdom.

In March 2014, they said :
“During the last 18 months we have spent money to develop intelligent lighting solutions to be marketed under the Lumiqs brand name.”
= They have spent the money.

“The Lumiqs LED products enable users to save over 90% of energy, as the solutions, equipped with wireless transceivers, can be programmed to grow dimmer or brighter according to the number of people in an area.”
= Good product that can save 90% of energy?

“They will be released into the market in the second half of 2014 for the global market”
= I think there is a delay. News in September 2016 said starting 2015.

“Expected to play an important role in revenue contribution for the 2016 fiscal year, which starts from April 1 2015.”
= Did we see improvement in Financial Result for year ended March 2016? No. Result was flat. But don’t know how much is from Lumiqs and how much is from forex.

In Sep 2016, they said:
“IQ Group Holdings Bhd is working for its Lumiqs brand to generate 30% of the group’s revenue by 2020. By 2018, it is targeted that the Lumiqs brand should contribute about 10% to the group’s revenue.”
= Good prospect from new product.

“We have established distribution channels for Lumiqs in South-East Asia. Now we are working on creating additional sales channels in Europe and other continents,” he said.”
= New markets

“Both Lumiqs and the new product will help drive the group’s growth over the next five years”
= Good prospect for 5 years
I have missed out on The Star newspaper, if not I would have bought her at slightly lower price, the money saved can add few dishes to my Nasi Campur (mixed rice) for many days.

My view is that this IQ Group have growth. How much, I don’t know. Although past few years, their financial is not so consistent, but the PE ratio is not expensive and with dividend yield of 4.7%, it provides some support. With net cash of RM0.54, it can be used to support dividend payment or for new products/markets development without calling cash injection.

IQGroup fair value and target price? I will just play by ear, assess the new developments.

For those who are concerned about price, she was RM0.35 in September 2013. RM1.00 in July 2014. RM3.00 in May 2015.


Thursday, 1 September 2016.
Lumiqs brand to generate 30% of IQ revenue by 2020
GEORGE TOWN: IQ Group Holdings Bhd is working for its Lumiqs brand to generate 30% of the group’s revenue by 2020.

Group chief executive officer Daniel Beasley (pic) told StarBiz after an AGM that the goal was achievable because the Lumiqs brand had started to receive orders from South-East Asian countries, Japan, Australia, and Switzerland.
“We expect orders to grow rapidly from the South-East Asian region, Japan, and Switzerland.
“By 2018, it is targeted that the Lumiqs brand should contribute about 10% to the group’s revenue,” he added.

Launched in early 2015, Lumiqs lighting solutions enable industrial users to save up to 90% of energy, as the solutions, equipped with wireless transceivers, can be programmed to grow dimmer or brighter according to the movement of people in an area.
“We have established distribution channels for Lumiqs in South-East Asia.
“Now we are working on creating additional sales channels in Europe and other continents,” he said.
IQ is now developing and designing a new sensor lighting offering for release under a new business model by 2018.

“This product is for use in small commercial premises and residential households.
“Both Lumiqs and the new product will help drive the group’s growth over the next five years,” he said.

Beasley said the group spent about 50% of the material cost to import raw materials for its lighting solutions.
“The cost of importation is offset by our sales which are largely in US, allowing use to gain in the foreign exchange,” he added.

For the 2017 financial year first quarter ended June 30 2016, the group posted RM6.6mil in net profit on the back of RM53.9mil in turnover, compared to RM6.4mil and RM50mil achieved in the previous year corresponding period.

According to a LEDinside report, the LED industrial lighting market is expected to grow from US$2.93bil to US5.2bil in 2020, representing a compounded annual growth rate of 15% during the five-year period.
The Start Saturday, 22 March 2014 
Riding on a forecast that the global light-emiting diode market (LED) will hit US$42bil in 2019, IQ Group Holdings Bhd plans to ride on its in-house brand name of LED lighting products to drive the group’s growth from April next year.

The LED products to be released come under the category of smart lighting, which according to TechNavio, a London-based research and advisory company, is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR ) of 36.4% over the period 2013-2018.

Group CEO Daniel Beasley tells StarBizWeek that previously the group had concentrated on manufacturing original equipment manufacturing (OEM) lighting solutions.

“Our in-house brand ‘IQ Group’ contributed between 1% to 2% of the sensor and LED segment, which generates on an average about 75% of the group’s revenue.

“During the last 18 months we have spent money to develop intelligent lighting solutions to be marketed under the Lumiqs brand name.

“They will be released into the market in the second half of 2014 for the global market, and is expected to play an important role in revenue contribution for the 2016 fiscal year, which starts fromApril 1 2015,” he says.

The Lumiqs LED products enable users to save over 90% of energy, as the solutions, equipped with wireless transceivers, can be programmed to grow dimmer or brighter according to the number of people in an area.

“We are targeting mainly the industrial and commercial markets.
“We will also release a version suited for use in residential homes,” he says.
Beasley says he expects Japan to be a major market for IQ’s energy saving intelligent lighting solutions.

“Japan has reduced their usage of nuclear energy, and are starting to import coal and oil to generate electricity.
“This means that there are a lot of business opportunities for energy saving lighting solutions to grow,” he says.

IQ is also talking with strategic business partners to market the Lumiqs products in Europe and Asia.
“We want to work with partners supplying to wholesale channels and the right business networks across the globe,” he says.

IQ expects the sales for the current year in operations to grow by double digit percentage compared to the fiscal year 2013, which ends in two weeks time on March 31.
“We are confident as we have delivered over RM30mil worth of new LED lighting solutions to our customers worldwide,” he says.

A US-based research house forecasts that the LED market will grow close to 50% until 2019.

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

KESM Target Price RM11

Affin Hwang Capital

KESM was RM6.95
In the automotive sweet spot
KESM recorded a strong 2012-15 EPS CAGR of 32%. We believe the solid growth is sustainable, underpinned by focused growth in the automotive business and margin expansion from improved product mix and growth in the high-margin testing business. Hence, despite the 34% stock price outperformance ytd, we think valuations remain attractive and expect a continued PE re-rating.


Initiate coverage with a BUY and target price of RM11 based on 12x our calendarised 2017E EPS, for upside potential of 58%. Set to benefit from automotive structural growth story KESM provides a good proxy to the stable and growing automotive semiconductor segment, in our view. With strong growing demand for electronics for vehicles, from safety to infotainment and autonomous vehicles, we believe KESM is in the right segment to benefit from an automotive structural growth story.



2015-17E EPS CAGR of 35%

We forecast KESM to achieve a 3-year EPS CAGR of 35% on the expansion of its testing business in the automotive segment. Its recent investments, in our view, should gradually bear fruit in the coming years and drive revenue growth. We look for EBITDA margins to rise from 31.9% in 2015.


Further re-rating expected

We see several re-rating catalysts for the stock, including a strong earnings

upcycle and PE expansion, as awareness on the stock remains low and

institutional holdings are limited.


Initiate coverage with BUY and RM11 target price

We initiate coverage on KESM with a BUY rating, on: 1) solid growth prospects in the automotive space, a strong working relationship with customers and expansion into the testing business, which we expect to drive a 3-year-forward EPS CAGR of 35%; 2) a hands-on and forwardlooking management team; and 3) although valuation comparables are limited as competitors are mainly integrated device manufacturers (IDM), closest peer Trio-Tech (TRT US) trades at a 14x 2016E EPS. KESM also trades on average at a 56% discount to automotive-related IDMs’ 2016E PE of 20.7x. Thus, at a 2017E PER of 8x, valuation looks attractive. Our target price of RM11 (12x calendarised 2017E EPS) offers 58% upside.



KESM was RM6.69
Despite weaker performance in the global semiconductor industry, KESM’s earnings have continued to grow at a rapid clip. Between FY12 and FY15, net profits had grown by a stellar CAGR of 60%. KESM is now poised for the next growth stage following the recent acquisition of the remaining 34.6% equity interest in KESM Test as well as the successful development of proprietary process controls for Test-During-Burn-In (TDBI); both developments will enable the group to establish a stronger foothold in the resilient & high margin automotive segment. We project earnings to grow by 75.2%/13.6% in FY16E/FY17E, and recommend a TRADING BUY on KESM with a fair value of RM7.90 based on a targeted FY17E PER of 10x.


In a sweet spot.

KESM began as a company involved in burn-in services for the semiconductor industry. The company’s foray into the Testing Services industry over the years has begun to bear fruit and KESM now enjoys a market-leading position as the largest independent “Burn-in & Test” service company in Malaysia. Recently, KESM completed the acquisition of the remaining 34.6% equity interest in KESM Test (in May 2015) for RM35.0m. The automotive segment now accounts for 70-80% of revenue (UNISEM and MPI derive c.17% and 23% of revenue from the Automotive industry, respectively), with the balance coming from the commercial segment.


Betting big on the automotive segment.

KESM is well positioned to benefit from two salient trends; (1) rising global automotive sales (expected to exceed 100m units in 2017 from 91m in 2015), and (2) increased electronic chips content in cars. The value content of electronics in a car is expected to grow from USD284 to USD330 from 2014 to 2019. The automotive segment represents an area of high growth potential and has enabled the Group to diversify into a segment that offers longer product life cycle and higher margin.


FY16/17E Net Profit to grow 75.2%/13.6%. KESM’s EBIT margins have expanded from just 5.4% in FY12 to 9.5% in FY15, while its earnings have also increased at a 3-year CAGR of 60.0%. In addition to the above growth drivers, we see the trend of increasing chip content cascading down from luxury cars to mid/low range cars, anchoring top line growth for KESM’s Burn-in and Testing services over the medium-to-long term. At the same time, higher margins from the automotive IC segment as well as cost efficiency from KESM’s proprietary Test during Burn-in (TDBI) should pave the way for a 273bps/23bps improvement in EBIT margins for FY16E/FY17E.


Strong balance sheet with RM63.6m cash pile.

Despite the expansion drive these past few years, KESM was still able to maintain a net cash position (RM1.48/share). Looking ahead, we projected CAPEX to come in at RM50m/RM70m for FY16/FY17. While dividends are expected to maintain

at a modest 15% pay-out ratio (dividend yield of 1.9%), we see scope for a bonus issue, given the high retained earnings of RM219.5m and very low share capital of just RM43.0m.


Trading Buy with Fair Value of RM7.90.

We believe this under-researched

gem is due for a rerating given its unique position within a resilient segment, strong earnings delivery and cash rich position. KESM is currently trading at a mere 8.5x FY17E PER (6.6x ex-cash), compared to listed peers, which trade at an average Fwd. PER of 12.8x. We expect the valuation gap to narrow, and have derived a FV of RM7.90 based on 10x PER FY17E (+18.1% from yesterday’s close). The RM7.90 Fair Value is premised upon a 20% discount to the valuation of industry peers in view of its smaller market capitalization and tighter shares liquidity.

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Friday, August 12, 2016

Top 7 Investors in the World, 4 are from Malaysia. Warren Buffet No.7

World Top Seven Investors. If you read their track records, excellent job done. I wish my return can come close to these seven top investors in the world. Still have a lot to learn from them.

Number Seven.
Warren Buffett. He made more than USD60 million for the past 50 years. I think that excludes billions that he has donated away. Great investor for so many years.

Number Six.
Although we always hear of Warren Buffet, but he lose to Carl Icahn. He is an American business magnate, investor, activist shareholder, and philanthropist.From 1968 through 2011, Icahn grew his original $100,000 investment in his firm at a 31% annual rate, while Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway had "only" a 20% annual growth rate.

Number 5.
But both of them still lose to George Soros in ONE SINGLE DAY CATEGORY. His September 16, 1992 transaction, when he made a single-day gain of $1 billion dollars.

Number 4
But Soros loses to a Malaysian guy by the name of Mr Dummy who made 107%profit in 2015. Soros only increased from USD23 billion to USD24.9 billion, a mere8%.

Number 3
But Mr Dummy loses to moneySifu who made more than 20% in 2016, while Mr Dummy is making 8.5% lose in 2016.MoneySifu is a Malaysian.

Number 2
But moneySifu loses to a pretty lady called Michelle (not her actual name), a branch manager who I met in an optical shop last weekend. She is a Malaysian too. She made 87% within two months from 1000 units of JHM stock worth RM720 and sold RM1350. Her brother in law suggested her to buy JHM. 

Number 1.
Who is the best? Michelle's brother in law? Her brother in law is only driving an old local car. He is a Malaysian.

The list can go on and on. Therefore:

A)Don't compare and be sad/envy. Compare and see how we can be improved, should be happy. Learn from them.

B)Don’t WORSHIP great investors.

1) Those who made high percentage, maybe invested smaller amount than you, just like Michelle.

2)High percentage may be just selected years. Look at Mr Dummy 107% gain in 2015, negative 8% this year while many are making good profit in 2016. Great investor, but maybe he has no time to look for new stocks or review his stocks and hold on too tight. Have learned a lot from him.

3)For those who made high percentage % and invested a lot, they still lose to Warren Buffett, because Buffett made more money than anyone. But Warren Buffet lose to Carl Icahn. And the winner is Michelle’s brother in law who is driving an old local car. The circle keeps continue until no end.


4)Some make 60% from their spare cash, but you make 17% from your total portfolio. You are better.

5)Some invested almost all their net-worth and made 16%, whereas yours only part of your net-worth and made 17%.


6)Some are from rich family, the first trade is already RM20,000. Whereas some started with RM800.

Great investors have their own weaknesses. Learn from them, but don’t worship them.

When am I rank? The world has 7.4 billion people now, and I’m rank 3,700,000,001. Slightly above average.

Stock Market is a good place to make money. Happy Investing.

Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Why I Am Not Sexy?

Why I Am Not Sexy?

Many will feel that I am not sexy. Yes, most of the time I am not sexy. But sometimes I can be sexy.
The stocks shared here are not sexy. They are mostly slow, not popular and not high in volume. But as long as it can grow, no need sexy stocks. Many stocks shared here have achieved 100% gain or more.

Take a look at Arsenal football club under Arsene Wenger. No offence to Arsenal fans, just making comparison. Arsenal last won the premier league was in 2004, and now more than 12 years playing so-called sexy football but without any league title.

Look at Mourinho. Many said he parks the bus and play defensively; look at his league titles. 6 league titles in the same past 12 years. He can be sexy too. His Real Madrid broke the record of highest goals scored in the Spainish league La Liga in 2012. Scored more goals in a season than Messi's Barcelona all the years before.

For now, looking for sexy girls, not here. But if those who are looking for non sexy ladies for long term, you may find some info here.

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Thursday, July 21, 2016

JHM stock growth story

What Growth? This is what i have picked up from The Star Article.

New markets and also broaden customers base.
JHM plan to expand their automotive LED business into Europe and Japan soon.

New Segment.
JHM Consolidation Bhd plans for its new aerospace business segment to be a major contributor to the group’s revenue by the second half of 2017.

Recurring income.
Aerospace business deals usually cover a 30-year.

Good prospect for coming 6 months.
On its automotive LED segment, the group still had orders with an estimated market value of over RM90mil to deliver for the second half of 2016, which is about 20% more than what was delivered in the same period a year ago.

Target more investors and fund managers.
JHM targeting to go to the Main Market by 2018.

I think no dividend.

Current PE ratio is 21 times saw from real time stock price system and also another delayed price system. Should be around there.

This PE ratio is not expensive because of the growth. The PE ratio is also not cheap. Wait for next quarterly result.

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Saturday, July 9, 2016

Superlon stock

INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS · Record earnings due to strong core EBIT margin · 4QFY16 earnings grew 14.2%yoy to RM3.7m  · Net cash level still strong at RM24.35m · FY17 earnings estimate increased to RM16.16m from RM14.3m  · Higher fair value of RM2.50 (previously RM2.16) based on 12x FY17F PER 

We increase our fair value to RM2.50 from RM2.16 based on 12x FY17F PER. The higher fair value is in line with higher FY17 earnings estimate and unchanged valuation of 12x PE (mean valuation). We take comfort in the company’s ability to grow sales volume amid a challenging environment while it boosts its cost management efforts. All these factors should continue to bode well for Superlon’s core EBIT margin and earnings. We also like the management’s efforts to enhance efficiency while maintaining a strong balance sheet.
Source: MIDF

Friday, July 1, 2016

OCK Research News- Buy. The Tower is getting higher

UOB Kay Hian starts coverage of OCK with fair value of RM1.30
KUALA LUMPUR: UOB Kay Hian Malaysia Research has initiated coverage of OCK Group with a sum-of-parts derived fair value of 95 sen while its blue-sky scenario points toward a fair value of RM1.30 a share.

It said on Tuesday OCK is an experienced network service provider poised to grow tower assets in frontier markets. 

"We project a three-year core earnings CAGR of 16.5% over 2015-18 driven by stable rents from 920 towers in Myanmar. 

"Importantly, we see deep value in the stock as rising tenancy ratio will provide scope for meaningful earnings upside. Our blue-sky scenario points toward a fair value of RM1.30 a share (upside of 57% from current share price)," it said.

UOB Kay Hian said OCK is poised to grow long-term recurring earnings via the commercial operations of 920 telco towers (capex is US$75mil or RM310mil) in Myanmar. 

It expects maiden full-year rental income of approximately US$15mil or RM62mil in 2017. We estimate the Myanmar towers (or Myanmar tower-co) will help drive a three-year core earnings CAGR of 16.5% over 2015-18.

The research house said importantly, additional site expansion and rising tenancy per tower will provide scope for significant earnings upside. 

Higher tenancy ratio (from one time to 1.15 times), taken together with stable rentals could further lift its base-case earnings projection by 26% and 41% for 2017 and 2018 respectively. 
This translates to a blue-sky three-year earnings compounded annual growth rate of 31% (vs base-case of 16.5%). 

UPB Kay Hian Research said OCK plans to place out 105m new shares to a strategic shareholder. The proceeds to be raised from the private placement (of approximately RM86mIL, based on current share price) could be channelled towards the acquisition of brownfield tower assets within the Indochina region. 

"Based on our conjecture, a tower asset acquisition of eight to nine times EV/EBITDA will likely be value accretive, as the stock currently trades at 11 times forward EV/EBITDA.

"We value Myanmar tower-co on a discounted cashflow method, to capture stable cashflow amid stable rental outlook. We have factored in up to 3,000 sites by 2020 in DCF-valuation for Myanmar tower-co. Our target price implies a 20% upside from the current share price level. At our target price, the stock would trade at 12.6/10.9 times 2017/18F EV/EBITDA. We are positive on the stock given strong earnings growth outlook, and believe the company deserves premium valuations.

"Near-term key re-rating catalysts for the stock include: a) sizeable M&A of tower asset within Indochina, including Vietnam, b) additional tenant for Myanmar tower-co, and c) eventual listing of a sizeable tower-based assets," it said.
Source: The Star 21 June 2016
We initiate coverage on OCK Group Bhd (OCK) with a BUY recommendation and a target price of RM1.00. We like OCK for its strong growth prospects from its ongoing business expansion, both domestically and overseas, that will also provide long-term regenerative earnings. Our call is also premised on the group's position as the largest telecommunication service provider in Malaysia.
OCK has a good business mix as both its mechanical & electrical engineering services and trading segments complements its core telecommunication network services segment, creating a synergy to its overall business model. Meanwhile, its green business and power solutions segment offers stable recurring income.

The group is currently on a regional expansion phase through its relatively large scale venture into Indonesia and its long-term investment in Myanmar. Going forward, earnings growth will emanate from its Myanmar venture which will see additional income from the construction and leasing of 920 telecommunication towers by end-2016. Meanwhile, both the Malaysian and Indonesia businesses will focus on increasing the ownerships of telecommunication tower sites.

We expect OCK to register double digit three-year net profit and revenue CAGRs of 13.3% and 21.8% to reach RM31.7 mln and RM468.5 mln respectively by 2017. We arrive at our target price by ascribing a sum-of-parts (SOP) approach as we value its telecommunication network services and green energy & power solutions business segments with a discounted cash flow approach (WACC: 9.0%, Terminal Growth: 1.5%); whereas we ascribe a fully-diluted 15.0x PER to both its 2017 trading and mechanical & electrical engineering services businesses.
Source: Malacca Securities

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

How to spend $10,000 in a month?

                      $       Balance
Salary                           10,000
EPF               1,100           8,900
Tax                    860            8,040
Kindergarten        790      7,250
Day care              430      6,820
Child Activities      200     6,620
Car instalment      650     5,970
Car Maintenance  400      5,570
Petrol                         420     5,150
Parent                       1,000   4,150
Insurance                1,050     3,100
House                     1,300     1,800
Market/Grocery       450     1,350
Phone                         210     1,140
Electricity/ water       150      990
Toll + parking             150      840
Management Fee      200      640
Office Lunch              440      200
Weekend                     200         0  

Below are expenses simulations of an average middle class family.

Salary husband $6000 and wife $4000, total $10,000.
BALANCE $10,000


EPF $1,100 and Tax $870.
BALANCE $8,040

Kindergarten $790
Two kids. Youngest kindergarten plus day care, morning until 6.45pm. Nobody take care of him after morning class. $240 is morning class and $550 is day care plus lunch plus tea time. Slightly expensive because only one centre at the location that closes at 7pm+. Sometimes office a lot of things to do and late in picking up child. 
Unable to cut this expenses.
BALANCE $7,250.

Primary day care plus tuition $430
Eldest child in primary school afternoon. Morning nobody take care, so send to day care + tuition at 7.30am, $380. Afternoon the centre will send the child to school. $50 is to cater food from school canteen, eldest child still young, easier and no need to bring pocket money. About the same expenses if buy from canteen.
Unable to cut this expenses.
Balance $6,820

Child Activities $200
$100 per child, one swimming, one badminton. See most parents also give their children learning some extra activities. Hopefully one day they will be like Lee CW or Misbun Sidek. Shall cut this expenses?
BALANCE $6,620

Car Instalment $650
Instalment for most common local car, Myvi, for husband. Wife 10 years old Kelisa. If finish paying Myvi, then is time for wife to change car. Not really want to change, but if too old the repair cost also will be killing the owner and not reliable. Use public transport? Need cars to rush to pick-up children. Sometimes last minute husband need to stay late, sometimes wife, so need two cars.
BALANCE $5,970

Car Maintenance $400
Husband every 3 to 6 months normal service in Perodua service centre, every few visits is the centre say major service. $300 to $600 per service. But sometimes change tyre, brake, absorber, brake discs skimming, and many other things plus labour cost. Sometimes the bill can be close to $1000. Average per months is $100 for service and $100 for general maintenance and repairs.

Wife normal service is cheaper but repairs are worse, sometimes engine oil leaking, oil seals, overhaul, rims, and many other things plus labour cost. Always got a lot of things to repair. Wife monthly average also same $200.

Major repairs will be at other workshops. No matter which car, when we ask “ don’t change or don’t repair can or not?”, the replies are always the same, “can, but dangerous, especially if you on highway”.
No buying of unnecessary accessories.
BALANCE $5,570

Petrol $420
Husband $260, wife $160
BALANCE $5,150

Parents Monthly $1,000
Husband two parents and wife two, total four. Average giving about $250 per parent. Can reduce the amount?
BALANCE $4,150.

Insurance $1,050
Husband $450. Wife $350. Each child $125.
Not really can cut because husband got high blood pressure and any new insurance will have extra charges. If don’t buy full coverage now, any sickness will not be covered if detected before buying. Government hospital service is not good, example asking us to do kidney dialysis 3 times a week at private centre, and visit doctor have to wait weeks or months to book an appointment.
No education plan.
Shall cut this?
BALANCE $3,100

House Instalment $1300
Purchase cost $250,000 basic condo with only swimming pool. 1,000 square feet. Now also hard to get at this price.
BALANCE $1,800

Market and Grocery $450
About $110 per week. Market for cooking dinner Monday to Friday, fruits, grocery buying toilet paper, cooking oil, canned food, sauce, broom, detergent, kitchenware, gas, milk powder, biscuit, eggs, milk, cereal, bread, washing powder, and normally the bills from hypermarket are very long and expensive.
BALANCE $1,350.

Phone $210
$75 x 2 persons = $150.
3.5 years change phone $1,260. Per month is $30. X2 = $60
BALANCE $1,140

Utilities Bills $150
Electricity and water bills are standard. Very seldom watch TV or use laptop. No Astro, computer and Wi-Fi. No thermos flask/microwave, 1 room aircon 25 Celsius 10pm until 3pm, living hall once a while one hour aircon if very hot, 2 water heaters lowest temperature without pump, one washing machine and fridge. Most are florescent light (long lasting) and some energy savings lights (not long lasting always spoiled).

Toll and Parking $150
Wife office parking $120 per month.
Balance $840

Condo management Fee $200
This is expensive. Previously was $120. Many tenants didn’t pay, and only two blocks to share the costs. Unable to do anything, unless move to a new place. Now property prices are very expenses.

Office Lunch $440
22 days X $10 per day X 2 persons. Normal cheap meal is $6 to $7. One week one or two times eat Nasi Lemak for breakfast X 2 persons. One or two times a week lunch with drinks. Sometimes colleagues say enjoy a bit, sometimes got birthdays, eat $15 to $20 and sometimes buy small cakes. Sometimes buy for tea time. Most of the extras are ‘sometimes” only. Average is $10 per day.
9 days $6 = $54
9 days $7 = $63
2 days $15 = $30
2 days $20 = $40
Total 22 days working days in a month, $187

5 days per month Nasi Lemak breakfast $8
6 days per month lunch with drink $8
4 days per month tea time $8
2 days per month drive out parking $6
$3 for GST and service tax in some restaurants.
Total $220

Weekend $200
Many activities during weekend, so eat Nasi Campur / Mixed Rice outside. Husband and wife $5 x 2 persons = $10. Kids $2.50 X 2 persons = $5. Total food per day $15. 4 persons if eat 3 bowls of noodles $7 X 3 already $21 and more than $15 budget.
4 persons, each person $2.50 for other expenses per day during weekends, total $10. This is to cover the food budget >$15 per day, pay parking, buy some drinks if finished the tumblers/bottles from house, kids sometimes want ice-cream, buy $5 of fruit, rojak, roti canai, or tart when visiting parents.
($15 + $10) X 8 weekend (days) = $200.



The above are just the fixed expenses, and excluding the followings:

No Astro and no Wi-Fi.
Parents medical expenses, they use their own money plus pocket money given to them.
Buying new clothes.
Buying expensive toys examples Lego and cartoon movie trademark toys.
Health supplements
Cannot afford to smoke and drink alcohol.
Cannot afford direct selling products.
Vacation, local or overseas.
Occasions, examples father mother grandparents children relatives and friends birthdays, weddings, funerals, house warming.
Buying electrical items, either new items, spoiled or upgrade.
House maintenance, eg re-painting, pipe inside wall leaking.
Festive seasons expenses.
Branded goods, eg bags, shoes, shirts, dress.
No expensive restaurant and no normal restaurant also. If eat outside, eat noodle, chicken rice or mixed rice. No ordering dishes.
No helping others, eg giving money to someone in need.
No investment.
No emergency expenses.
Etc Etc..

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About Me

Dollar Cost Averaging and PEGGY Method. Sharing info on cheap (low PE) company with high growth, low Gearing or Net Cash and High Dividend Yield.



Disclaimer Clause
The information contained in this blog is my personal diary and has been prepared solely for myself. Without any previous reading material or discussion, by just reading my blog contents, reader may misunderstand the contents.
All the contents I am talking to myself and most contents are hypothetical or imaginary. I REPEAT !!! most contents are hypothetical or imaginary!!!!!
This blog has been compiled in good faith, with no intention to cause hurt, loss, or any trouble. No representation is (either express or implied) as to the completeness or accuracy of the information it contains.
This blog also is not an advice, recommendation or an invitation to buy or sell or invest in anything, eg shares, futures, derivatives, gold, etc. Consult your investment adviser before making any decisions.
The copyright of the material contained in my blog remains solely with me. You shall not copy, reproduce and / or distribute this information without my permission.