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Thursday, July 10, 2014

Tanah Makmur Target Price Fair Value and SASBADI IPO

According to TA Securities, they have applied Sum-of-Parts valuation methodology and derived at the fair value of RM1.48 for TMAKMUR. They assigned a blended average of 10x PER for the plantation and property segments. That is some 33% discount to market-cap weighted average PER of plantation industry peers.
The discount is to reflect TMAKMUR’s relatively smaller market cap and the fact that small-cap property companies are trading at a relatively lower PER (7x average).
As for bauxite, they use cash value (DCF method) as this is a non-core business and will only generate profit for 2 – 3 years. Hence, PER is not a suitable method to value the bauxite assets, in their view.

According to Kenanga, they value TMB at RM1.60 based on Fwd. PE of 9.1x to FY15E EPS of 17.7 sen. Their Fwd. PE of 9.1x is derived from 40% discount to avg. mid-cap Fwd. PE of 15.2x. The 40%
discount is used to reflect TMB smaller market cap of RM0.5b (peers avg. RM2.7b).

================




SASBADI HOLDINGS BERHAD

Opening of application    07/07/2014
Closing of application    14/07/2014
Balloting of applications    16/07/2014
Allotment of IPO shares to successful applicants     21/07/2014
Tentative listing date    23/07/2014

INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING IN CONJUNCTION WITH OUR LISTING ON THE MAIN MARKET OF BURSA MALAYSIA SECURITIES BERHAD COMPRISING:

(I) PUBLIC ISSUE OF 21,200,000 NEW ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.50 EACH (“SHARES”) IN THE FOLLOWING MANNER:

• 6,350,000 NEW SHARES AVAILABLE FOR APPLICATION BY THE PUBLIC;

• 5,700,000 NEW SHARES AVAILABLE FOR APPLICATION BY OUR ELIGIBLE DIRECTORS, EMPLOYEES AND PERSONS WHO HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE SUCCESS OF OUR GROUP;

• 9,150,000 NEW SHARES BY WAY OF PLACEMENT TO SELECTED INVESTORS;
AND

(II) OFFER FOR SALE OF UP TO 35,950,000 EXISTING SHARES IN THE FOLLOWING MANNER:

• 12,700,000 EXISTING SHARES BY WAY OF PLACEMENT TO BUMIPUTERA INVESTORS APPROVED BY THE MINISTRY OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INDUSTRY;

• 23,250,000 EXISTING SHARES BY WAY OF PLACEMENT TO SELECTED INVESTORS;

AT AN ISSUE/OFFER PRICE OF RM1.19 PER SHARE, PAYABLE IN FULL UPON APPLICATION










Wednesday, June 4, 2014

ICON Offshore IPO and Boustead Plantation Berhad IPO Target Price

Bursa organizing a football world cup game. You may join and have fun and may win prizes.

Here is the link.

http://ftbl.bursamarketplace.com/index.php?rid=3403
 


ICON Offshore IPO
Public Bank said Petroliam Nasional (PETRONAS), Malaysia’s National Oil Company will continue to stimulate the oil and gas (O&G) landscape having awarded to-date 101 PSCs and 5 RSCs, and supported by a rise in upstream expenditures by c.37% CAGR in tandem with increasing activities. They believe ICON Offshore Berhad’s listing is timely considering the ongoing opportunities in Malaysia and the region. ICON fair value for ICON is premised on FY15F EPS of 13.4sen, pegged to a 15x PE multiple which has
accounted for the additional earnings from the 6 vessels the Group will undertake by FY15. The Group’s growth will be buoyed by its i) fleet expansion plans and earnings visibility from orderbook of RM700m which are largely long-term.

RHB value Icon at MYR2.10, pegged to a 16x FY15F P/E, (+14% upside from its IPO price). This is at a slight premium to their 14-15x small-to-mid-cap O&G valuations but in line with its pure-play peers.
They like the company’s: i) ongoing fleet modernisation plans, ii) long-term charters, iii) high utilisation (with above-industry margins), and iv) its potential to benefit as a deepwater play. Despite the lower specifications
of its current OSV fleet, they take comfort that this shortfall is mitigated by its long-term charters. Icon’s fleet modernisation plan and ability to redeploy its vessels are crucial to support our valuation standpoint

Opening of application 30/05/2014
Closing of application 06/06/2014
Balloting of applications 10/06/2014
Allotment of IPO shares to successful applicants 23/06/2014
Tentative listing date 25/06/2014


INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING OF UP TO 510,767,000 ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.50 EACH IN ICON OFFSHORE BERHAD (“ICON”) (“IPO SHARES”) IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LISTING OF AND QUOTATION FOR THE ENTIRE 1,177,185,100 ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.50 EACH IN ICON (“SHARES”) ON THE MAIN MARKET OF BURSA MALAYSIA SECURITIES BERHAD COMPRISING AN OFFER FOR SALE OF UP TO 289,022,000 EXISTING SHARES (“OFFER SHARES”) AND A PUBLIC ISSUE OF 221,745,000 NEW SHARES (“ISSUE SHARES”) INVOLVING:

(I) INSTITUTIONAL OFFERING OF UP TO 460,148,000 IPO SHARES TO BE
ALLOCATED IN THE FOLLOWING MANNER:

(A) UP TO 324,772,000 IPO SHARES TO MALAYSIAN AND FOREIGN INSTITUTIONAL AND SELECTED INVESTORS; AND

(B) 135,376,000 ISSUE SHARES TO BUMIPUTERA INVESTORS APPROVED BY THE MINISTRY OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INDUSTRY,

AT THE INSTITUTIONAL PRICE TO BE DETERMINED BY WAY OF
BOOKBUILDING (“INSTITUTIONAL PRICE”); AND

(II) RETAIL OFFERING OF 50,619,000 ISSUE SHARES TO BE ALLOCATED IN THE
FOLLOWING MANNER:

(A) 35,316,000 ISSUE SHARES MADE AVAILABLE FOR APPLICATION BY
THE MALAYSIAN PUBLIC VIA BALLOTING; AND

B) 15,303,000 ISSUE SHARES RESERVED FOR APPLICATION BY THE ELIGIBLE DIRECTORS AND EMPLOYEES OF ICON AND ITS SUBSIDIARIES ("ICON GROUP") AND PERSONS WHO HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ICON GROUP,

AT THE RETAIL PRICE OF RM1.85 PER SHARE (“RETAIL PRICE”), PAYABLE IN
FULL UPON APPLICATION AND SUBJECT TO A REFUND OF THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE RETAIL PRICE AND FINAL RETAIL PRICE (AS DEFINED HEREIN)
IN THE EVENT THAT THE FINAL RETAIL PRICE IS LESS THAN THE RETAIL PRICE,

SUBJECT TO THE CLAWBACK AND REALLOCATION PROVISIONS AND THE
OVER-ALLOTMENT OPTION (AS DEFINED HEREIN). THE FINAL RETAIL PRICE WILL BE EQUIVALENT TO THE LOWER OF: (I) THE RETAIL PRICE; OR (II) THE
INSTITUTIONAL PRICE.

=================   


BOUSTEAD PLANTATIONS BERHAD IPO

BPLANT

According to TA, Boustead Plantations IPO fair value of RM1.52 was derived based on target CY15 PER of 16x. Rerating will be largely underpinned by better than expected CPO price and/or value accretive acquisitions. Weather is the key upside risk in the near term. BPB’s earnings are highly sensitive to CPO price. They estimate every RM100/tonne change in CPO price will impact FY15 EPS by 11%.

I was wondering why BPLANT fair value is lower than the IPO price of RM1.60? Why? This is supposed to be entitlement for Boustead shareholders, and why Boustead would want shareholder to pay something that is higher than the fair value? This is just a fair value by TA, and other brokers may give a higher fair value? Please note that share price may trade above or below the fair value, and as long as the share price is above the IPO price, Boustead shareholder will be happy.


Opening of application 27/05/2014
Closing of application 11/06/2014
Balloting of applications 16/06/2014
Allotment of IPO shares to successful applicants 24/06/2014
Tentative listing date 26/06/2014

INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING ("IPO") OF UP TO 656,000,000 ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.50 EACH IN BOUSTEAD PLANTATIONS BERHAD ("BPB") (" IPO SHARES") COMPRISING AN OFFER FOR SALE OF UP TO 76,000,000 EXISTING BPB SHARES ("OFFER SHARES" ) AND A PUBLIC ISSUE OF 580,000,000 NEW BPB SHARES ("ISSUE SHARES") IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LISTING OF AND QUOTATION FOR THE ENTIRE 1,600,000,000 ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.50 EACH IN BPB ("BPB SHARES") ON THE MAIN MARKET OF BURSA MALAYSIA SECURITIES BERHAD IN THE FOLLOWING MANNER:

A. THE INSTITUTIONAL OFFERING OF UP TO 163,570,500 IPO SHARES COMPRISING UP TO 29,000,000 OFFER SHARES AND 134,570,500 ISSUE SHARES TO MALAYSIAN INSTITUTIONAL AND SELECTED INVESTORS, INCLUDING BUMIPUTERA INSTITUTIONAL AND SELECTED INVESTORS APPROVED BY THE MINISTRY OF
INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INDUSTRY AT THE INSTITUTIONAL PRICE TO BE DETERMINED BY WAY OF BOOKBUILDING ("INSTITUTIONAL PRICE"): AND

B. THE RETAIL OFFERING OF UP TO 492,429,500 IPO SHARES COMPRISING UP TO 47,000,000 OFFER SHARES AND 445,429,500 ISSUE SHARES TO:


(I) ENTITLED UNITHOLDERS OF AL·HADHARAH BOUSTEAD REIT ("BREIT") (AS DEFINED HEREIN) PURSUANT TO THE RESTRICTED BREIT OFFERING (AS DEFINED HEREIN);

(II) ENTITLED SHAREHOLDERS OF BOUSTEAD HOLDINGS BERHAD ("BHB" ) (AS DEFINED HEREIN) PURSUANT TO THE RESTRICTED BHB OFFERING (AS DEFINED HEREIN);

(III) ELIGIBLE DIRECTORS AND EMPLOYEES OF BPB AND ITS SUBSIDIARIES ("BPB GROUP") AND PERSONS WHO HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE SUCCESS OF THE BPB GROUP, ELIGIBLE DIRECTORS AND EMPLOYEES OF BHB AND SPECIFIED DIRECTORS OF SELECTED SUBSIDIARIES OF BHB; AND

(IV) MALAYSIAN PUBLIC (AS DEFINED HEREIN),

AT THE RETAIL PRICE OF RM1.60 PER IPO SHARE ("RETAIL PRICE" ),

SUBJECT TO THE CLAWBACK AND REALLOCATION PROVISIONS AND OVER-ALLOTMENT OPTION AS SET OUT IN THIS PROSPECTUS.

THE RETAIL PRICE IS PAYABLE IN FULL UPON APPLICATION AND SUBJECT TO A REFUND OF THE DIFFERENCE IN THE EVENT THAT THE FINAL RETAIL PRICE (AS DEFINED HEREIN) IS LESS THAN THE RETAIL PRICE. THE FINAL RETAIL PRICE
WILL EQUAL THE INSTITUTIONAL PRICE, SUBJECT TO THE FINAL RETAIL PRICE NOT EXCEEDING THE RETAIL PRICE.



Bursa organizing a football world cup game. You may join and have fun and may win prizes.

Here is the link.

http://ftbl.bursamarketplace.com/index.php?rid=3403




For more info on IPO, here.


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Thursday, May 15, 2014

7-Eleven IPO Target Price

TA Securities has set a target price of RM1.24 for 7-Eleven pending its re-listing on Bursa Malaysia’s Main Market.

It said on Thursday that 7-Eleven entails a public issue of 530.3 million initial public offering (IPO) shares, representing up to approximately 43.0% of the 1.2 billion enlarged issued and paid up share capital. The indicative retail price is RM1.38.

Of this 530.3 million shares, 348.9 million are offer shares while the remaining 181.4 million are new shares. The IPO shares under the institutional offering and retail offering do not include the shares under the over-allotment option.

Of the total RM731.8mil raised, it said RM481.5mil or 66% will go to BRetail - the selling shareholder, while only the remaining RM250.3mil or 34% will be used for capex expansion and working capital for the group.

“Based on an enlarged share capital of 1.2 billion shares at RM1.38 a share, the market cap for 7–Eleven would stand at RM1.7bil,” it said.

It said that BRetail would own a minimum of 57% stake in 7-Eleven post IPO, as its shareholder currently owns 1.1 million shares representing the entire enlarged issued and paid up share capital of the group.

“Post IPO, BRetail will hold 703.1 million shares representing 57% of the enlarged issued and paid up share capital.

“However, Bretail may grant an over allotment option to the stabilizing manager to undertake price stabilization actions,” it said.

Assuming full exercise of the over-allotment option, BRetail will own 629 million shares representing 51% stake in 7-Eleven.

TA said the group intends to spend approximately RM352mil over the next three years for the expansion of 600 self operated new stores, store refurbishment, construction of CDC and upgrading its IT systems.

“Hence, 73.8% or RM184.7mil will be utilised for that reason. The remaining RM167.3mil will be funded internally,” it said.

Going forward, the group plans to open up 600 new stores between 2014 and 2016.

However, softer spending due to various subsidy cuts and GST implementation next year, could pose other threats in the near term.

“Going forward, the group will expand its in store services with MOL services which should garner 100% gross margin.

“Some of these new services include, Touch ‘n Go reloads, bill payments, MOLPay- which is an e-commerce payment system to pay for online purchases - and MOL’s Games Rack and point of sales App Store cards,” it said.

TA expects 7-Eleven’s capex to inflate in the next three years as it is expected to add another 600 new stores which is almost 60% more than in the past three years.

“Its capex is expected to inflate to over RM300mil which is more than double that reported in the past three years of RM125mil,” it said.

In the past four years, TA said the group paid out 55%/39.8%/0%/461.9% of profits.

“This translates to a yield of 0.0% - 14.1%. Going forward, the group has a dividend policy of 30%-50% payout. However, this is subject to future cash flow, gearing, retained earnings, unexpected capex requirement and working capital requirements,” it said.

TA said considering the intense capex in the near term, its is assuming a pay out of 30%. This in turn would translate to a yield of 1.0%-1.8% between FY14- FY16.

The research house expects earnings to grow by 15.0%/28.1%/31.1% to RM59.6mil/RM76.3mil/RM100mil in FY14/FY15/FY16 respectively.

It values 7-Eleven at RM1.24 a share based on a FY15 earnings per share of 6.2 sen a share pegging a price earnings of 20 times.

“When compared to FBMKLCI 1-year forward PE of 15.4 times and other retail consumer stocks under our coverage, a PE of 20 times is high in our view more so given that 7-Eleven is more inferior in terms of market cap, margin and dividend yield,” it said.

Furthermore, unregulated capex, impact of GST on cost of sales, could easily erode its already thin margin of 2.1%-3.1% historically, TA said.

“When compared to regional peers (due to absence of local peers) we identified 18 stocks which have similar business as 7-Eleven.

“Out of these 18 stocks, we chose only seven stocks which we think is more comparable,” it said.

TA said the other 11 stocks have exposure in various other businesses such as hypermarkets, leasing of commercial properties, departmental stores, pharmacy and manufacturing while others were trading at extremely high PE of between 51 times and 68 times which it thinks is unwarranted.

“Having said that, these highly traded PE stocks did trade at more reasonable PE levels of between 20 times to 25 times in prior years. Based on the seven stocks chosen, the average PE is 23.8 times,” it said.

Source: The Star

More info on 7-11, here.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/7-11


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Thursday, May 8, 2014

7-Eleven IPO

 Will post the target price once I have the info. Below is the details of the 7-11 IPO:


7-ELEVEN MALAYSIA HOLDINGS BERHAD

Opening of application    08/05/2014
Closing of application    16/05/2014
Balloting of applications    20/05/2014
Allotment of IPO shares to successful applicants     28/05/2014
Tentative listing date    30/05/2014




INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING OF UP TO 530,325,000 ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.10 EACH IN 7-ELEVEN MALAYSIA HOLDINGS BERHAD (FORMERLY KNOWN AS SEVEN CONVENIENCE BERHAD) ("7-ELEVEN MALAYSIA HOLDINGS") ("IPO SHARES") IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LISTING OF AND QUOTATION FOR THE ENTIRE ENLARGED ISSUED AND PAID-UP SHARE CAPITAL OF 7-ELEVEN MALAYSIA HOLDINGS, COMPRISING 1,233,385,000 ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.10 EACH IN 7-ELEVEN MALAYSIA HOLDINGS ("SHARES"), ON THE MAIN MARKET OF BURSA MALAYSIA SECURITIES BERHAD COMPRISING AN OFFER FOR SALE OF UP TO 348,940,000 EXISTING SHARES ("OFFER SHARES") AND A PUBLIC ISSUE OF 181,385,000 NEW SHARES ("ISSUE SHARES") INVOLVING:

(I) INSTITUTIONAL OFFERING OF UP TO 490,780,000 IPO SHARES TO BE ALLOCATED IN THE FOLLOWING MANNER:

(A) UP TO 348,940,000 OFFER SHARES TO MALAYSIAN AND FOREIGN INSTITUTIONAL AND SELECTED INVESTORS; AND

(B) 141,840,000 ISSUE SHARES TO BUMIPUTERA INSTITUTIONAL AND SELECTED INVESTORS APPROVED BY THE MINISTRY OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INDUSTRY ("MITI TRANCHE"),

AT THE INSTITUTIONAL PRICE TO BE DETERMINED BY WAY OF BOOKBUILDING (“INSTITUTIONAL PRICE”); AND

(II) RETAIL OFFERING OF 39,545,000 ISSUE SHARES TO BE ALLOCATED IN THE FOLLOWING MANNER:

(A) 34,045,000 ISSUE SHARES MADE AVAILABLE FOR APPLICATION BY THE MALAYSIAN PUBLIC VIA BALLOTING; AND

(B) 5,500,000 ISSUE SHARES RESERVED FOR APPLICATION BY THE ELIGIBLE PERSONS (AS DEFINED HEREIN),

AT THE RETAIL PRICE OF RM1.38 PER SHARE ('RETAIL PRICE"), PAYABLE IN FULL UPON APPLICATION AND SUBJECT TO REFUND OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RETAIL PRICE AND FINAL RETAIL PRICE (AS DEFINED HEREIN), IN THE EVENT THAT THE FINAL RETAIL PRICE IS LESS THAN THE RETAIL PRICE.

SUBJECT TO CLAWBACK AND REALLOCATION PROVISIONS AND THE OVER-ALLOTMENT OPTION (AS DEFINED HEREIN). THE FINAL RETAIL PRICE WILL BE EQUIVALENT TO THE LOWER OF (I) THE RETAIL PRICE; OR (II) INSTITUTIONAL PRICE

================ 
7-11 fair value.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/7-11



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Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Update 2014 April

I found a way of be able to update more, that is by using short update. In order not to flood my blog with so many short posting, I have decided to use the comment function.

Can look at the short cut in my right top corner.

Thursday, April 10, 2014

Buying SBCCORP


Buying SBCCORP. Got time only explain. Recommended by Kenanga and CIMB

For those who are interested to follow my transaction, please LIKE my blog Facebook.

http://www.facebook.com/PeggyMethod

Saturday, March 22, 2014

Buy Latitud, Email, Selling

1) Many people say buy Latitud stock, let me see.
2) Give me your email if you are interested to follow my blog.
3) May not blog the selling.


Latitude Tree Stock.
Saw many places people recommend to buy Latitud stock at around RM2.65. OK, Latitud PE ratio is very low, less than 5x or even lower. That day announced very good financial result, but Latitud share price didn’t really move up. Price up a bit then dropped back.

Why result is so good but price hardly move up? Maybe people already expected? Maybe already gone up from RM1.00+++?

For me, I don’t know the growth, because I really don’t know how to predict or forecast.


What can be our strategy?
We can buy now, because PE ratio is so low. And if they can maintain the profitability or register some growth for few quarters, then sooner or later this stock will fly. This is what I called Question Mark in BCG growth-share matrix in my 2012 article. Don’t know the future, but if predicted correctly the return can be very great. And once analyst start writing on this stock, the price will jump. Risk is of course the company having negative growth. Maybe Latitud profit is those few years good few years bad that kind of industry.

We can wait. Wait for what? We can wait for the price to drop then buy, but what if the price never drop. Wait for analyst report. Latitud result is so good, but we do not know the forecast. Analyst will do the forecast and if the forecast is good, the price will jump. But nowadays I see before the report is out, the price already up one or two days before. The price may be up before analyst report, too late.

If on Monday 24 March around this price RM2.65 or RM2.70, there is an analyst report out, then I will jump in and buy.

As you see, there are many strategies, each have its own pro and con.



Email.
Although my Zhulian dropped sharply, I still made money from that. Refer my previous posts. As you can see from my post this year, I have made contra gain from TGuan. I also made 50% from MKH based on the MKH share price now. 20% from OCK. I have never post on OCK except IPO time. But I did mentioned it was in my portfolio. Not bad for a start for this year.


As you can see I have been making money year after year. Losses from few stocks only (and small loss), but gain from many many many stocks with 100% 200% 300% gain. I am not an adviser and I cannot give advice. I hope we can have sharing of information. Thanks for those who highlighted Latitud stock. Long ago I have started posting my transaction, and if you follow my blog you will know that I keep making money, short term, medium term and also long term.

For those who are interested to follow my transaction, please LIKE my blog Facebook.


You can also give me your email. Will not display your email, just for me to send out notification. But I may not always email, depending on the availability of my access and time.

We share information. Thanks to a reader who sent me MKH post. Thanks to a reader who share with me Latitud, and thanks to few bloggers who share Latitud.

The email is for me to share information, not an advice.


Selling
By the way, I probably will not post my selling. If you look at my blog, I post lesser and lesser.




Once again, I have repeated many times, I am just an ordinary investor. Sharing my investment journey, not advice nor recommendation. Please consult your own financial adviser. Please read disclaimer clause.

I hope you guys also can continue sharing info with me.


Happy Investing and let us laughing all the way to the bank. Oops, I should say… Happy investing and let us laughing all the way to the stock broker.


For those who are interested to follow my transaction, please LIKE my blog Facebook.


Thanks




Disclaimer

Disclaimer Clause
The information contained in this blog is my personal diary and has been prepared solely for myself. Without any previous reading material or discussion, by just reading my blog contents, reader may misunderstand the contents.
All the contents I am talking to myself and most contents are hypothetical or imaginary.
This blog has been compiled in good faith, with no intention to cause hurt, loss, or any trouble. No representation is (either express or implied) as to the completeness or accuracy of the information it contains.
This blog also is not an advice, recommendation or an invitation to buy or sell or invest in anything, eg shares, futures, derivatives, gold, etc. Consult your investment adviser before making any decisions.
The copyright of the material contained in my blog remains solely with me. You shall not copy, reproduce and / or distribute this information without my permission.