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Tuesday, October 25, 2016

MFCB Warrant Upside Potential table

Update from my previous post. How to read the table.

RM2.23 is MFCB current share price and warrant is RM0.675.

If MFCB up 35% to RM3.00 and the warrant trade at 20% premium, then MFCB-WA will be RM1.40, 107% upside potential.

You can ignore those in blue as I don’t think that can be achieved. Because the higher the share price and warrant price, the lower the premium.

MFCB medium target price is RM3.16 given by Public Investment Bank research analyst.

If MFCB up 42% to RM3.16 and the warrant trade at 20% premium, then MFCB-WA will be RM1.60, 137% upside potential.

MFCB long term fair value is RM4.43 given by Public Investment Bank research analyst.

If MFCB up 99% to RM4.43 and the warrant trade at 0% premium, then MFCB-WA will be RM2.23, 230% upside potential.

For those who have lack of long term faith, MFCB at RM3.16 does not look super difficult. Upside potential for warrant will be 137%.

As usual, 100% loss. Max.

In stock market, always think big, don’t just make 10%. Think 100%

Invest like a businessman for long term.

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Tuesday, October 18, 2016

MFCB-WA can up 270% or 140% in 3 years?

MFCB Target Price RM4.43 - exercise price of RM2.20 = RM2.23
Divided by MFCB Warrant price RM0.60 = upside of 270% !!
Medium term 12 months upside is 70% +.
My conservation calculation is 140% upside for 3 years.

MFCB have this USD500m (RM2bn) Don Sahong hydropower project which has been on track, reaching 10% completion as of Aug 2016. The deadline to complete the project is31 Dec 2019 while commercial operation is scheduled to take place in early 2020.

Public Investment Bank's analyst said expecting a more than 3-fold jump in earnings.

I also tell you the bad points, may lose 70% of Group revenue (RM51.8 X 70% = RM36.26mil) and diluting with warrants.

2015 net profit RM51.8 million.
1-fold jump in profit RM51.8 million + RM51.8mil = RM103.6 million.
3-fold jump in profit = RM51.8 X 3 + RM51.8mil = RM207.2 million 

207.2m - losing 36.26m profit = RM170.94million

Shares issued 401.9m, + warrants 67.3m = 469.2

Earnings per share RM0.364

X 10 times PE ratio = RM3.64

Warrant in the money price =  RM3.64 deduct exercise price RM2.20 = RM1.44
Warrant Price now RM0.60.
= 140% upside.

140% is a conservative figure.

For those medium term 12 months MFCB Target Price given by Public Investment Bank RM3.16.
MFCB Target Price RM3.16 - exercise price of RM2.20 = RM0.93
Divided by MFCB Warrant price RM0.60 = upside of 55% in 12 months.
12 months for sure will still trade at premium, so the upside could be 70%.

1)I use fully diluted from warrants. 
2)Between now and 3 years later, MFCB may get new projects
3)The China concession expiry in 2022, another 6 years. And they may not lose it. 
4)PE ratio is only 10 times. Historical is more than 10x???
5)Analyst said earning more than 3-fold. The above assumption is only 3-Fold.

Public Investment Bank analyst said . . . .. 
The Laos hydropower project could fetch as much as RM4.43/share. Upon the full commercial operation of the hydropower plant, we forecast that the Don Sahong Hydropower could contribute as much as RM4.43/share (WACC: 7%) based on our DCF valuation. As of now, we apply a higher WACC of 10% coupled with a 30% discount for the risk exposure during the construction period, which yields a valuation of RM2.26/share. All-in, our SOP-based TP is revised upwards from RM2.29 to RM3.16.

Let's said we don't bother about my own analysis, purely go for MFCB target price of RM4.43 in the future, the potential upside of RM4.43 is a lot.

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Saturday, October 15, 2016

DKSH, Bonia, KESM, Superlon, Ekovest, GBGAQRS, BioAlpha, TekSeng, ICAP, OCK, FIBON, Prolexus, VS, JHM, EG, TGuan, IQGroup, Supermax, AWC, OPENSYS, BISON

Past few weeks busy because was travelling. Quick update.

DKSH stock.
Suddenly the share price moved up. Market said they got contract from big multinational company P&G for Hong Kong. Not sure how it is related to DKSH. I added more.

Bonia stock.
Saw the recommendation but did not buy. Went up about 8%, missed the opportunity. The bosses have been buying and the company have completed many reorganisations.

Superlon stock.
Announced good result but share price dropped. This probably due to the price went up steadily before the result announcement and those who bought for short term are taking profit. I added more.

KESM stock.
Price suddenly went up. Those who sold RM7.50 after the result announcememt just few weeks ago may realise it was a mistake of selling. Now almost RM9. As mentioned in my post earlier, the result was actually not that bad but many people just threw and threw. Happy that my analysis was correct because this year started to do own analysis. Learning new things. No news why suddenly up.

Ekovest stock.
Some recommended on this because they are selling something big that will receive a lot of cash.

GBGAQRS stock.
Someone recommended this at RM0.95, immediately dropped to RM0.86 and now back to RM0.95. The PE ratio is low, price has dropped a lot and got some construction jobs coming. I skip this, not because not good, but too many stocks to read whether it is good or not.

Bioalpha Holdings Stock.
They took over Contant Pharmacy and help to distribute more of their products. Many plans are coming. I'm eyeing this stock, bought small quantity for a start. Now may not be the right time to buy because of execution risk. Bought because let it be in my portfolio so that can start monitoring. Probably after the rights issue. See how first.

Tekseng stock.
Initially they have many orders but I read news that customers cancelled orders so they terminated some staff that was meant for these orders. I sold all because lack of prospect, probably loss 15% on this. A loss is a loss but the damage is not too big because Tekseng was not big in my portfolio. And is only 15% loss. Some other stocks made almost 80% such as KESM and JHM so the damage is minimal. Was I wrong in investing in Tekseng? Some may say why I invested because global and solar bla bla bla. But who will know best on solar? You and me? Analyst? The company boss? SKL? The answer is the company boss. The company boss got it wrong, how am I without deep analysis be better than the company boss? I will classify this as one of those unexpected event rather than blaming myself for wrong decision made.

ICAP stock
Felt like those shareholders being disadvantaged. Past few years the fund is not performing, high proportion is cash and management fee is high. Nothing much the shareholders can do. Why don't they change management company. The company also don't want to do share buyback.

OCK stock.
Market news said Businessman Brahmal Vasudevan may have bought 3% of OCK shares. That's why the share price went up a bit. Now dropped back again.

Fibon stock.
At last added some.

Prolexus stock.
This Prlexus up slowly and steadily again and again. Fortunately I added some as mentioned in my earlier articles. They have some exicting developments next year 2017 where their joint venture, factories and facri mills start bearing fruits. This year Europe cups and Olympics may have pushed up their sales too.

Newbie added VS stock at RM1.3x.

Some quick summary.

LED later penetrate Europe and Japan automotive, and also the aerospace. Need Time. Price has tripled this year, probably may not go up fast.

Internet of Things. IoT.
More cars will have higher value of software inside the car, although car sales slow.
The boss said they are at the beginning of a great journey.
Price has doubled this year.
Past few days price jumped up again.

Good result.
Building new warehouse.
Penetrate deeper in some countries.
PE not high and divided not bad too.

So many reports said got potential but no result yet. Taking a risk here.

Good demand for their product. May have joint venture with Japan, but will be in the long future.
Price down recently. Still up 30% from few months ago.

Internet of Things. IoT
Price hardly move. Up then dropped back.

Their restructuring has been completed. Lost of major customer have been factored in.
Now ready to add in more products into their distribution channel.

Plenty of cash.
But lack of concrete growth prospect. Many may know the prospect but for me it is stil not convincing for big entry. Cash is a big support.
The boss said despite facing various general economic challenges, the Board of Directors of Fibon Berhad is of the opinion that the performance of the Group for the financial year ending 31 May 2017 will not be severely affected

Nike shoe.
Relying on major customer Nike.
2017 will see their joint venture, new factories in Vietnam and Johor starting to bear fruit.
But now price has move up slowly and steadily

Price dropped a lot.
Waiting for rebound.


Internet of Things.
A lot of long term, eg 5 or 10 years recurring income.
But very complicated, many segments, don’t understand their business / growth. That's why not going big.

Getting a lot of orders for their 2-in-1 ATM & Cash Deposit machine combined.

Opening of many MyNews stores. But price went up too fast before could buy more.

New market/products.
Start to manufacture some drugs.
Bought pharmacy Constant to help distribute their products.
Rights issue coming. May need to wait till the rights issue over first.

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Saturday, September 24, 2016

KESM good, Steel Companies, PERAK TRANSIT BERHAD IPO Target price fair value, CIMB, PROLEXUS, LBS, Gandang, INARI, Superlon, MBSB, BISON,

This week bought KESM at RM7.7x. After the quarterly result, the share price took a dive from RM8.00 to RM7.52 during the morning session. This was expected because their profit down year on year. I was not panic because I have studied their result, the drop in profit was due to forex, reversal of sundry items last year and tax. All these are exeptions and the core operations profit in fact has increased.

Whatever past is past, I buy shares for the future. What is the future of KESM at KESM share price of RM7.7x?
1)PE ratio 10 times. Not cheap but not expensive

World-wide semiconductor revenue is decreasing, however, the world-wide automotive integrated circuit market is forecasted to grow at 7.2%, from
a revenue of USD22.2 billion in 2016 to USD23.8 billion in 2017.

KESM is at the right unique sector, automation in car.

The company said...... We are just at the starting point of an exciting road ahead focusing on our strategic plans. Our customers are rolling out new devices and solutions to meet the growing demands by the car makers.

"We see great potentials as increasing new automotive devices are required for added features in the evolution of cars and our opportunities will remain as the demand grows," Lim said.

You see the word "starting point"? Means baru start (just started)

3) Affin Hwang recommended buy KESM with KESM fair value of RM11.00. Maintain BUY and target price of RM11
No major changes to our FY17-18E EPS forecasts and we introduce FY19E EPS of 129 sen (+26 percent yoy). We continue to believe that KESM is in the position to benefit from the strong growth in the automotive semiconductor segment, underpinned by rising electronic contents, from safety to infotainment and autonomous vehicles. Maintain BUY and target price of RM11 (12x calendarised 2017E EPS) which offers almost 40% upside.

4)With share price of RM8.00, high chances for bonus issue and share split which will attract more buyers and volume, get re-rating and unlocking value.

KESM dividend is poor, 1% yield I think. But they have generated a lot of cash and reduced a lot of debt. In fact, the dividend has increased. Last year dividend RM0.06, this year 25% more RM0.075. I strongly believe they will pay more dividend in the future.

I was waiting for a lower price but KESM share price rebounded from RM7.52 to RM7.7x. I couldn't wait and bought it. I think many people had realised that the quarterly result is not that bad after all. Please remember we are buying for the future and not the past.

KESM share price closed at RM7.94. I bought at RM7.7x, about 3% higher from the low. Am I bad investor? I don't think people will always get at the lowest price, only SKL can do that. Who is SKL, those who know cantonese will know.

Those who have just sold, after getting more info, if they think KESM is good to buy at this price, can consider buy back. I'm not saying KESM is good to buy for them, I'm saying with all info and "they think" KESM is good at this price, can consider buy back. Because what's wrong if we buy a stock that we think is good? Past is past.

All things come with a risk. With the information that we have for KESM, I will continue to add KESM, unless got negative news.

Again, did not manage to add FIBON stock.

PRLEXUS, as shared in my previous articles, their factories and fabri mills ready in around 2017. I was supposed to KIV this stock and buy in 2017, but as shared in my facebook it seems the volume and share price has started moving a bit. Bought at RM2.4x.

Sometimes i forgot to share what I want to and forgot what I have shared. All these bloggings taking a lot of times because I have to check here and there. I don't even have wifi at home. All typing via phone. If you eat I dont feel full, if you don't eat I will not get hungry. But as long as my sharing can help others, I'll be very glad.

After searching, I have not shared my selling of CIMB. I sold my CIMB for gain. Bought at RM4.4x sold at RM4.7x. This CIMB is not for long term, took opportunity on the low price and momentum.

LBS stock announed some don't know what developments. Newbie bought it at RM1.6x and now RM1.78, up more than 10%.

His Gadang continue to grow strong, with Gadang share price almost RM3.00.

His Inari share also steady, maybe is because of the launching of new iPhone.

I don't have these stocks.

Those he cut loss examples DRBHICOM and GTronic share prices are higher than his selling price.

Oh, have I shared newbie also bought KESM few weeks ago? His price was RM7.8x if I remember correctly. He kind of like the idea of growth in the driverless car/taxi which may benefit KESM.

Many people are making huge gain from steel companies. I missed it because was not aware of what was happening. Some of the steel related stocks shared by prominent uncle: (for concrete reinforcement in construction) players such as Masteel, Southern Steel, Annjoo; downstream players like Choo Bee, Leon Fuat, AYS, Leader Steel and etc. He said must study carefully, not all steel companies are the same. Some produce different products, some only small percentage of revenue from steel.

Superlon stock. Dropped from RM2.3x to RM2 and now rebounded to RM2.4x. Quarterly result is out soon. Hopefully will be good.

MBSB price looking good. Will not buy more.

Bison share price is almost RM2.00. I made but did not buy more because the PE is high. Analysts also did not give high fair value. I will just hold.

Kenanga said... We like this new IPO, Perak Transit, for: (i) its quasi-recurring income model, (ii) being in a highly defensive sector with high barriers of entry, (iii) tax incentives and strong PAT margins of 30.2-32.1% in FY17-18E, and (iv) future growth from new Kampar terminal (IPO proceeds of RM36.8m is mainly for this development). Forecast earnings of RM27.1-RM31.1m and 4.0-4.5% yield in FY17-18E. Our DDM derived Target Price of RM0.22 (52.6% total returns) implies FY17E PER of 9.4x. SUBSCRIBE. 

Forecast earnings of RM27.1-RM31.1 for FY17-18E mainly from A&P revenue growth, additional 25 buses in FY17, while the project facilitation fee remains the icing on the cake. We are expecting bottom line margins to expand in FY17, and estimating 30.2-32.1% PAT margins in FY17-18E from continued growth in the A&P revenue YoY, and on the back of lower effective tax rates (9%,7%,7% in FY16,FY17E,FY18E) derived from tax benefits received. A dividend pay-out policy of up to 25% translates to FY17-18E DPS of 0.59-0.68sen (4.0-4.5% yield based on the IPO price of RM0.15).

DDM-driven Target Price of RM0.22 with total return of 52.6% (7.69% discount rate; 3.19% 5-year risk free rate). Our TP implies FY17E PER of 9.4x. There are no direct comparable but given its quasi-recurring income base, we back tested our valuation method against small cap (<RM1b market cap) MREITs. Based on average small cap MREITs’ FY17E PER of 16.0x and yield of 6.0%, we derive a Fwd. PER of 10.2x for Perak Transit based on its FY17E yield of 4.0% and this imply a TP of RM0.24, which reaffirms our valuation. We opt to maintain our DDM approach and TP of RM0.22 to be more conservative. SUBSCRIBE.

PTRANS target price is RM0.22.

Opening of application 15 Sep 2016
Closing of application 23 Sep 2016
Balloting of application 27 Sep 2016
Allotment of IPO shares to successful applicants 04 Oct 2016
Tentative listing date 06 Oct 2016


Sunday, September 18, 2016

List of Export counters for us to Buy due to Strong US Dollar

Don't play play, now is almost RM4.20.

Below are the list of export oriented stocks. They will make more profit when the USD is up.

I'm not saying that now is the time to buy export counters. Sharing of info only. By the way, I don't gain by sharing info, and always receive criticism. People will leave some nasty comments in my blog and facebook. Is like eating nice durian, hope others can enjoy. I made money consistently and I'll be glad if my sharing can help others. If you think my method is wrong or need to be improved, why don't you guide me. I'm also still learning.

If you buy USD, USD up 1%, you make 1%. Some of the stocks below if USD up 1%, their profit could up 1.5% or some companies 2%. So, if you want to benefit from USD or hedge against USD, you may consider buying stocks that can gain at least 1% or more from 1% up of USD.

But some companies also will make less than 1% if USD up 1%.

It is also better to look for companies with good prospect, high dividend yield, high target price or fair value. In case the USD does not go up, at least the stock also can go up due to higher profit or receive good dividend.

Avoid stocks with no prospect. They may gain from USD, but profit may down due to much lower sales.

The list below are 12 months ago, but most are still valid. Do your own research. Their share prices are the latest and target prices are quite recent. The target price I roughly average it if got few brokers. If I didn't indicate any target price means unable to find.

Some are not export stocks, but are benefited from strong USD or weakening of Ringgit (example strong Yen or Euro). They may have operations in overseas.

I also list those have negative impact from weakening of Ringgit.

Once again, sharing of information only, I may have typo or the info may be outdated. Check with your finacial planner.

The target price or fair value are BEFORE the streghtening of USD to near RM4.20 now (RM4.15??). If USD up, the Target Price later will also be up.

I also list down those are negatively impacted by weakening of Ringgit. Don't mix up. DO NOT MIX UP.

POSITIVE from weakening of Ringgit:

Eversendai share price RM0.47, target price RM0.65

Rubber product manufacturers, semiconductor firms and furniture producers, because their costs are mainly in Ringgit while sales are mainly in USD.

Top Glove RM4.69, TP RM5.50

Supermax RM2.15, TP RM2.60

Hartalega RM4.40, TP RM4.30

Kossan RM6.25, TP RM7.50

Karex RM2.40, TP RM2.31

Furniture and Wood Related.
Homeritz share price RM0.885, Target Price RM1.09

Evergreen share price RM0.92, Target price RM1.48

Heavea RM1.25


TAANN RM3.51, TP RM5.00

Latitud RM4.64, TP RM5.15

SHH RM1.77


Semiconductor or IT RELATED
Vitrox RM3.83, TP RM3.70
Last year Maybank said 1% USD up, Vitrox bottomline up 2%.

INARI, RM3.31, TP RM3.30

UNISEM RM2.70, TP RM2.85


MPI RM7.93, TP RM8.48

EG RM0.84, TP RM1.02

Because some of the operations are in overseas.
GenM RM4.37, TP RM4.50

GenM family Genting RM7.76, TP RM9.15

Daibochi  RM2.25, TP RM2.14
Tomypak RM1.66, TP RM2.00
Thong Guan TGUAN  RM4.28, TP RM4.88

MISC RM7.53, RM8.10

WCT RM1.65, TP RM1.85


TIMECOM, RM8.42, TP RM7.28

Hovid RM0.375

IQGroup RM2.24, TP RM2.75

Kawan RM3.79

Asiafile RM3.68 ASIAFLE

You see this CSCENIC, there was one quarter it said although USD is strong, their profit was not good because undercut by Europe competitors. I think Euro also dropped against the USD, not sure. So you must determine whether is USD strong, or Ringgit weak.

VS??? Share price RM1.33, target price RM1.75

PRELEXUS. PRLEXUS because manufacture for NIKE.



Cimb and Unimech??? Benefit from weak Ringgit due to their Indonesia operations?

OCK probably may not benefit from strong USD but may benefit from weak Ringgit because of their South East Asia opeartions. I may be wrong but this is with my limited info.

Not sure about the below list...????


NEGATIVE from weakening of Ringgit. Do NOT mix up, below are negative. Bad from strong USD or weak Ringgit.

Company that import raw materials in USD but sell in Ringgit and those who have USD debt.

Automotive Sector
Tan Chong
Last year Kenanga said 1% fluatuation in USD, UMW's bottomline could be affected by 3%. Tan Chong is 6%.

Berjaya Auto RM2.30, TP RM2.55


MBMR RM2.52, TP RM2.68

Because many borrowings are in USD. Fuel cost also. Unless they have hedged it.

You guys know AirAsia much better than me.

Many telcos have borrowings in USD.

Axiata RM5.32, TP RM5.20



Because most content costs are in USD but sales are in Ringgit.

IJM- USD debt

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Sunday, September 11, 2016

IQgroup stock research analysis


By Tan Jiahui | Shares Investment – Wed, Sep 7, 2016 

Remember the first time you walked into a room that automatically lights up? While rare in the past, many buildings are now equipped with smart lighting systems, which uses sensors to detect and control lighting to achieve energy efficiency.

Today, sensors are also commonly used in numerous applications including car park space monitoring, central heating and air-conditioning systems (using thermostats) and speed cameras. As the world move towards the vision of the Internet of Things (IoT), sensors which can collect and transmit data back to cloud servers play an important role.
With potential seen in the market for sensor-based products, we zoom in on IQ Group Holdings (IQ Group), a motion sensor lighting producer listed in Malaysia.

Business – Most Revenue from Europe, Japan, and the US
IQ Group, founded in Penang, Malaysia in 1989, is principally engaged in the design and manufacturing of sensor products which includes passive infrared detectors, motion sensor light controllers, wireless video communication devices, door bells and home security system products.

Subsequently, the group formed a joint venture with Taiwan-based SemiLEDs Optoelectronics Co to diversify into the development, design and manufacture of light-emitting diode (LED) luminaires, hoping to ride on the growing LED market.

The company operates under both the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and original design manufacturer (ODM) business models, with manufacturing facilities located in Penang and Dongguan, China. The group derives most of its revenue from customers in Europe, Japan and the US, and main customers of the firm are said to include big names like OSRAM, OPTEX Co and Hager.

The core technologies of the firm focus on passive infrared (PIR) sensors which operate by monitoring the background ‘temperature’), and wire-free door chimes and video intercom systems.

Turnaround Story – Recovered from GFC; Revenue and Net Profit Growing
Looking at IQ Group’s past operating performance, things were not all smooth for the firm. The company fell into losses for three consecutive financial years from FY09 to FY11 before making a turnaround in FY12.

The group’s performance in those periods was dragged down by poor economic conditions during the global financial crisis, coupled with a rise in manufacturing costs, particularly in China. IQ Group then underwent a successful restructuring exercise (completed in FY11) and streamlined its processes to improve efficiency and reduce costs, which helped return it to profitability.

In the past five financial years from FY12 to FY16, the firm’s top and bottom lines have been on a general uptrend. Revenue and net profit grew at compounded annual growth rate of 6.3 percent and 35 percent over the period to reach RM190.9 million and RM20.9 million respectively.
While there was a dip in earnings in FY13, we note that it was due to foreign exchange loss of RM1.6 million and the absence of disposal gains amounting to RM4.2 million recorded in FY12. Net margin has also been improving and held steady at 10.8 percent and 10.9 percent for FY15 and FY16 respectively.

Strong Balance Sheet And Cash Flows – 30% of Market Cap
In terms of financial strength, IQ Group boasts a cash-rich balance sheet that is free of debts. As of 30 June 2016, the firm’s net cash stood at approximately RM56.8 million (including short-term deposits), which translates to roughly 30.8 percent of its market capitalisation of RM184.4 million as of 5 September.
On the cash flows front, the group has posted positive operating cash flows in all of the past years except for FY11. We like that the company’s free cash flows have also been positive in the latest four financial years from FY13 to FY16. The strong cash generating capabilities have, in turn, allowed IQ Group to build up its cash reserves.

As business recovered and cash pile grew, the firm rewarded shareholders with the resumption of dividend payout in FY15. Based on the share price of RM2.09 as at 5 September’s close, IQ Group’s FY16 dividend per share of RM0.10 translated to a decent yield of 4.8 percent.

Management: In-house Brand LED Lighting Expected To Drive Growth
In the past few years, IQ Group has developed its own intelligent lighting solutions, which was launched in early 2015 under the Lumiqs brand. Lumiqs LED products are equipped with wireless transceivers and can be programmed to grow dimmer or brighter according to movement of people in an area, allowing up to 90 percent energy saving.

Currently, the Lumiqs range of products are mainly targeted at the industrial and commercial markets but the firm is developing and designing a new sensor lighting offering (projected to be released by 2018) to be used in small commercial premises and residential households. According to the firm, orders for the Lumiqs lighting solutions have already started coming in from South-East Asian countries, Japan, Australia, and Switzerland.

The group expects its in-house brand name LED products to be its driver of growth in the next five years. Riding on a forecast that the global LED market will hit US$42.7 billion by 2020, the company targets for the Lumiqs brand to generate 10 percent of its total revenue by 2018, and 30 percent by 2020.

Based on a share price of RM2.09, the company’s shares are trading at a trailing twelve months price to earnings ratio (P/E) of 8.7 times, which seems reasonable given the company’s performance and growth prospect. In contrast, Taiwan-listed peer Everspring Industry Co (Everspring) trades at a P/E of 25.3 times. While Everspring’s market capitalisation is about three times that of IQ Group, we note that the former’s latest full year net profit is only about 10 percent higher.
Overall, we foresee the demand for the IQ group’s products to rise as people become more conscious about the environment and saving energy. Additionally, with the increasing popularity of the IoT, the company is in a good position to capitalise on the trend using its innovation and expertise.

Saturday, September 10, 2016

Prolexus, IQgroup, Unimech, NIKE, Steel Stocks, Fibon, KBES, L&G, Berjaya Auto

This week activities:

Added IQgroup stock at RM2.1x. I think people panic after knowing I bought and immediately the same day IQgroup dropped to RM2.11. If I have stomach ache I may bought few cents cheaper. Now up 7.1% to RM2.26. Please refer to my previous post for the reasons why I bought.

Bought Unimech at RM1.1x and sold at RM1.20 for some contra gain because saw many people said they are buying for Indonesia business recovery. If I have stomach ache, I would have miss this. So don't blame stomach ache, you may buy cheaper or more expensive, no one know.

Didn't manage to get L&G, because my que was not done at RM0.4x. Didn't manage to change one bid higher. If not, would have contra for close to 10% gain. I seldom que and not getting, don't know why this round went to que.

At last, sold my KBES at RM0.28x and RM0.26x. Loss here. It was meant to be short term. It did went up more than RM0.30 for me to sell at 10% gain within the same day I bought, but my timing decision was wrong.

Did not manage to buy Fibon shares as planned because was buying IQ Group stock. Read from forum, will Zika have negative impact on their Singapore projects?

Prlexus stock research analysis.
Three segments: garments, which include the manufacturing and sale of garments; advertising, which include the provision of advertising services on multimedia boards, and investment holding. Also manufacture for NIKE.

Based on the past few years results, Prolexus' profits have up a lot. Are we too late now? Yes, but we may be too early also.

Too late because we missed the uptrend in profit. Too early because they have some projects to be completed in 2017 onwards.

I have no info on the growth from existing business, but what we have is the news, which I hope can be turned into mini catalysts.

Simple Analysis:
Prlexus share price: RM1.41

Past four quarters profits: RM25.38mil
Number of shares: 176.8mil
Warrants: 56.8mil

EPS before full warrants dilution: RM0.143, PE ratio 9.9 times

EPS after full warrants dilution: RM0.109, PE ratio 12.9 times

Warrants expiry is after 4.5 years, we can ignore but to be prudent we can simply adjust PE ratio to 11 times.

Prolexus to set up two joint-venture plants with Taiwanese firm, The Star Feb 2016.

Prolexus to set up Vietnam ops to gain from TPPA (plant in Vietnam and Fabri Mill in Johor). The Star.

RM22mil is allocated for the Vietnam factory (land acquisition cost, however, will be paid with internal funds).  The management anticipates the construction of the new factory to commence in 2016 and is projected to be completed and fully commissioned by 2017, with an initial production capacity of about 4.5 million pieces annually.

The Star Dec 2015.
New fabric mill in Kluang, Johor. On the RM55mil fabric mill to diversify into upstream garment production, Prolexus said this would allow internal procurement of knitted fabrics produced in-house instead of purchasing from external suppliers.

For those who are interested in the price, Prolexus share price up from RM1.19 in the beginning of 2015.
Up 131% to RM2.75 as at Nov 2015.
Down 26% to RM2.04 on the day before it ex for Rights issue in May 2016.

Those who gone through the Rights issue......

1 rights with warrants for every 2
RM2.04 X 2 = 4.08
Add Rights issue price RM1.00 = RM5.08 total cost.

What they have now.
RM1.41 X 3 = RM4.23
Add 1 warrant RM0.47

Selling persisted even after the ex date. 

Now the price hovering around this level.

Don't know whether this will be a good buy in 2017, because many information is missing. The factory in Vietnam is it the same with MC joint-venture? When will the mill in Kluang be completed? Supposed to sign Joint-venture with MC within 6 months from February 2016, what happen now?

Not sure th Euro 2016 did any boom to Prolexus or not.

Past few weeks the steel stocks are attracting buying interest. Many people came to my blog to check the list of steel stocks published few years ago.

Next week activities? Don't know yet, maybe adding Fibon stock.

LBS suspended for 3 days. Hope good news for Newbie.

His Berjaya Auto announced result below expectation. I don't think he follow the developments of his stocks.

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