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Friday, April 30, 2010

Public Bank Credit Card Cash Back

Public Bank credit card is giving 15% cash back to customers.
Monday rebate on Petrol
Tuesday Departmental store
Wednesday Jewellery and movie tickets
Thursday Health & beauty
Friday Hotel & travel
Saturday Dining
Sunday Grocery

There are few more terms and conditional.
Please refer to Public Bank.

Polite Market's comment:
I don't like to collect points. I like big cash back

Although credit card is VERY CONVENIENT,
but you must use credit card wisely
Many went bankruptcy in Malaysia because of credit card debt

Interest rate about 1.5% monthly, compound to about 19.56%pa
Good income for the bank.

Card holder must have self-control. Try one or more of this..
1)Pay in advance
2)Ensure there's credit balance at every statement balance
3)After each big transaction, pay immediately
4)Only use for direct debit (phone, insurance, etc) and petrol
5)Use Debit card
6)Reduce limit to comfortable level (not advisable)

I was once stuck with credit card.
What I'm doing now?
1)365 days mine is credit balance.
2)I only use for direct debit (phone, insurance, etc) & petrol
3)I use if got big cash back. Pay up immediately
I can't reduce my limit, need for emergency use.

Homeritz declared another dividend- RM0.018

Homeritz just release result.
Net profit down 12.5% from RM5.91m to RM5.17m due to the festive season in February and one time costs of listing expenses.

They just declared RM0.018 dividend, ex 12/05/2010

Current Price RM0.55

Polite Market's comment:
Profit within my expectation. I just received RM0.012 dividend on 18 March 2010. So now total dividend will be RM0.03. Based on RM0.55 current price, yield already 5.45% for six months. Another six months to go.
I look at their cash RM22.6mil, already more than ALL liabilities of RM20.4m only.

Their major customers are in Europe, so I am a bit concern. With net cash in hand, should be ok. As long as they keep paying me the high dividend, my risk is getting lesser and lesser.

Conclusion: Always look out for company that pay good dividend.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Notion profit increase but decrease

Just release quarterly result.
The net profit up 122% to RM12.2 million year on year
But down 12.9% quarter on quarter
Down because strengthening of the Ringgit and initial start up cost of
new projects such as Thailand operation and base plate projects of which
earning will only come in the following quarters

Polite Market's comment...
Prospect will be tough due to two issues, the strong Ringgit and
Thailand crisis

Rato Canai Vs North American box office

North American box office (movie)
Weekend Box Office (April 23 - 25, 2010)

Title Apr 23- 25 Distribution
1 HTTYD   US$15,350,213 Paramount
2 The Back-up Plan 12,201,710 CBS
3 Date Night 10,461,223 Fox
4 The Losers 9,406,348 Warner Bros.
5 Kick-Ass 9,342,398 Lionsgate
6 Clash of the Titans 8,924,180 Warner Bros.
7 Death at a Funeral 8,022,762 Sony
8 Oceans 6,058,958 Buena Vista
9 The Last Song 3,760,816 Buena Vista
10 Alice in Wonderland 2,264,097 Buena Vista
11 Hot Tub Time Machine 2,007,125 MGM
12 Diary of a Wimpy Kid 1,886,464 Fox
13 WDIGMT? 1,727,505 Lionsgate
14 The Bounty Hunter 1,570,695 Sony
15 Avatar 920,204 Fox
16 TGWTDT 621,749 Music Box
17 The Ghost Writer 497,257 Summit
18 Hubble 3D IMAX 394,977 Warner Bros.
19 TSITE 360,056 Sony Classics
20 City Island 314,007 Anchor Bay

Titanic Vs Avatar

Comment from Polite Market:
Avatar is rank 15 last weekends, with a total of US$746,365,137
Already higher than Titanic.
Total gross for Titanic is US$600,800,000
But with the ticket price increase (already more than 10 years),
I think Titanic sold more tickets than Avatar.
But in terms of profit, assuming 10% margin
You made US$74 million from Avatar
And made US$60 million from Titanic, even you sell fewer tickets
Money in business/stock market is better than money in the bank FD
As long as got inflation, the profit will get higher and higher even
with lesser customers. But you must be in a business that can pass on
cost increase to customer or can increase price due to inflation.
Bank, food, petrol, etc are good examples. For cost sensitive
industries, maybe in short term the profit is badly affected by cost
increase, but no matter how, in a longer term, most business can also
pass on the cost increase to customers.

Old prices:
Roti Canai RM0.40
KL single storey linked-house less than RM100k
Proton car RM18,000
916 gold RM60 per gram
Look at Keck Seng, their asset market value already RM17 per share
Cost is just RM4.98, as per NTA now

Conclusion, put your money in the stock market

Can Buy Dayang Enterprise Holdings Bhd ar?

Someone told me Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd recommended Dayang (RM1.92)
Enterprise Holdings Bhd, and asked me can buy ar?
What is Dayang fair value target price?

Using PEGGY Method
PE: 15+, will drop to <10 two years later
G: Growth, yeah.. 25% - 30%
G: Gearing.. quite ok, 10% - 20%
Y: yield.. 3%-4% dividend yield

I'm not familiar with Dayang, but should be ok.
I'm more concern on the overall market sentiment/ economy and whether they can achieve the above figure.

He will win the Sibu By-Election

He will win the Sibu By-Election.
By who is he? Who will win the Sibu by-election?
By-Election, PR took back own seat, and BN took back own seat.
Exception.... Kuala Terengganu and Hulu Selangor
PR took Kuala Terengganu from BN
BN took Hulu Selangor from PR
Hulu Selangor is a close fight.
Kuala Terengganu is a big town/city.

PR will win
Sibu is also a big town/city
With high percentage access to internet and more mature

BN will win
PR still unable to penetrate Sarawak
Najib will do magic again
Previous by-election in Sarawak, BN won with bigger majority

Comment from Polite Market:
I think BN win, with a smaller majority

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Maybank RM8.50 from RM7.05

Read in the news that OSK just increased Malayan Banking Bhd, Malaysia's
biggest bank, target price / fair value from RM7.05 to RM8.50.
OSK Research Sdn Bhd just upgraded Maybank to "buy" from "neutral",
saying its overseas expansion and improving asset quality will propel earnings.
I saw few brokers are quite bullish on Maybank, some gives RM9.00

Polite Market Comment:
If I look at the fundamental, it looks nice.
But when I check the historical price chart, it shows the adjusted price
(adjusted for divided also) was about RM6.50 in end of April 2000.
So now the price is RM7.50, up just 15% for 10 years
If I put bank FD just 2.5%pa, I made 28% already.
For the past ten years, why I always hear people say Maybank is a good counter to buy??????

For the past ten years, to make money from buying Maybank is not investing, is trading. You have to buy low and sell high few times. If not, then you just make the 15% return over ten years.
I don't buy low and sell high, because I don't know when is low or when is high. May I ask you one question? Now Maybank at RM7.50, is low or high?

But if you say Maybank (a Government linked company) has cleaned up all the shit, price has adjusted for the bad decision, and now is a good time to buy, then it is a good buy.

Imagine you are buying:
Blue chips. KLCI component counter
A very high liquid/high volume counter
Biggest bank in Malaysia
Dividend yield 3.7% - 5%
PE 15 with Growth strong at 15%-20%
Recommended by many brokers
I may also buy. It is a good buy.

But I just afraid they will disappoint us again with they unexpected corporate decision.

NOTION VTEC BHD to Buy Autic Mekki Sdn Bhd

NOTION VTEC BHD's wholly-owned Notion Venture Sdn Bhd to buy 60% of
nickel plating firm Autic Mekki Sdn Bhd for RM3.4 million.
A total of 1.2 million ordinary shares at RM1 each, representing 60% of
the issued and paid-up share capital of Autic Mekki from Gan Siew Lay
and Tay Lang Cheng.
Autic Mekki will be a wholly-owned subsidiary of Notion Vtec upon the
completion of the purchase.
This may add 1% to 2 % to Notion net profit.

Polite Market Comment:
If a company has low gearing or net cash, they can easily buy other
business to increase the profit. So it is very important to look for
company with low gearing. Also not forgetting the high risk with high
gearing.

Kumpulan Emas- The PEGGY way

In 2001, I was having "tuition" in the stock market.
So, tuition need to pay tuition fee.
I like Kumpulan Emas Bhd so much.
From the newspaper the PE very low. NTA very high.
Bought and sold few rounds
Made some, loss some, and I stop, I found new love then.
The price of Kumpulan Emas Bhd (KEMAS) was RM0.45.

Now when I look at the chart recently, the name has changed to ECOFIRST
CONSOLIDATED BHD. And the price now is RM0.09. I'm sure LONG TERM
investors who hold on to the shares made losses from KEMAS
If I was still trading Ecofirst from 2001 till now, I can't imagine the
loss. Keep on buy high and sell low.

How the PEGGY method can help.... PE G G Y
Kumpulan Emas
PE: PE was low, so ok
G: Growth, there was no growth, sometimes negative
G: Gearing, was high
Y: Yield? Don't mention dividend yield, hardly pay out good dividend
If LONG TERM investors evaluate Kumpulan Emas base on PEGGY method, they
should have sold or avoided KEMAS.

Change My Strategy Now

I look at the market got no power. Not going up, or crash. But I am a lifetime supporter of stock market, so will keep buying.

With the Ringgit has appreciated so much.....

Case:
1 USD 3.5 Ringgit
Sales RM350mil (US$100mil)
Cost RM300mil
Profit RM50mil

1 USD 3.2 Ringgit (up 8.5%)
Sales RM320mil (US$100mil)
Cost RM300mil
Profit RM20mil

Ringgit up 8.5%, impact is profit down 60%.

So many of our export company will kena hit kuat kuat.
Tenaga, Haio, Amway, Car manufacturer, etc will benefit.

Few weeks ago I sold 33% of all my portfolio, with the liquidity I am having, now I slowly buying into REITs.
I put into bank earn me 2.3% FD. At least REITs pay me 8% with capital appreciation.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Is This Short Term or Long Term?

Short Term Trading
Price goes up: Investor should take profit
Yes, normally investor takes profit
PASS.... Gain 10%-20%

Short Term Trading
Price Comes Down: Cut loss
But ended hold THEN cut loss
FAIL..... Loss 50%

Long Term Investment
Price goes up: Hold or add a bit more
But ended up took profit
FAIL.... Gain only 20%-30%

Long Term Investment
Price Comes Down: Should keep buying more
But ended buy some more, hold then cut loss
FAIL..... Loss 50%

Average out the above is NEGATIVE (Loss) -15%
So, you need to decide whether your trade is long term or short term

Shall I apply Masterskill Education Group Bhd?

Shall I apply Masterskill education Group Bhd?
Worth to apply or subsribe Masterskill education Group Bhd?
At RM3.50.
The IPO is very big, I think the biggest in South East Asia this year.
Market tak ada tenaga..... so how?? Closing is on 3/5/2010.
But most probabaly I will give it a try.
My IPO record is not good, 50 50 only.

Foreign Investors Net Sold US$64 million in March 2010

Read from the news that foreign investors were net sellers for a fourth
month in March even as the government eased investment rules and
announced more plans to open up the economy, CIMB Investment Bank Bhd
said.

Foreign funds sold US$64 million of Malaysian shares last month, adding
to outflows of US$180.5 million from December to February.

Monday, April 26, 2010

Nissan Moco is it RM49,800?

It is RM49,800?

New Nissan MOCO RM49,800 coming soon

What is the price of Nissan MOCO?
How much is Nissan Moco?
New Nissan MOCO.  I heard is RM49,800, coming soon
Anyone any idea? Will it launch in Malaysia?


IPO Performance

Since 23/06/2009, there were 19 IPOs
Only 5 (26%) of the 19 IPO's current price is higher than IPO price

The Ups
Samchem Holdings Bhd now up 11.97% from IPO
Handal Resources Berhad up 5.6%
Maxis Berhad up 12% from IPO RM4.75
Kelington Group Berhad up 51%
JCY International Berhad up 19.4%

The Downs
The rest of the 14 IPO were in red
Multi Sports Holdings Ltd down 45% from IPO price
Xingquan Int Sports Hldg Ltd down 30%
Xidelang Holdings Ltd 36%
Sinaria Coporation Behad 41%
TA Global Bhd 15%
DSC Solutions Berhad 24%
Homeritz Corporation Berhad 16%
Oversea Enterprise Berhad 6.5%
Etc etc etc etc

Please note that DSC Solutions Berhad first day listing closing price up
198% from IPO price, but now current price is down 24% from IPO price.
Whoever bought it during first day or didn't sell it, and hold until
today, big difference.

Shall I apply Masterskill education Group Bhd?
Worth to apply or subsribe Masterskill education Group Bhd?

What is Masterskill Education Group Bhd Fair Value Target Price?

What is Masterskill Education Group Bhd Fair Value Target Price?

IPO issue price is RM3.50
Retail Offering 25.5 mil shares
Institutional offering 15.5 mil
Offer for sale 164 mil shares
Issuing house MIH
Now I don’t have the target price, later.

Please refer to my later post on other IPO performance.

Hulu Selangor By-Election Result- PR votes increased

2010 result
BN 24,997 votes
PR 23,272 votes
2008 Result
BN 22,979
PR 23,177

Hulu Selangor by-election post mortem
Why Pakatan Rakyat, PR, DAP, PAS, PKR lost in the Hulu Selangor by-election?
Why BN, barisan nasional, umno, mic, mca won the Hulu Selangor by-election?
If you analyze the result, PR votes increased from
23,177 to 23,272.
Some observe from the polling centre said PR is leading, then later few boxes ............ you know, lazy to elaborate.

Congrats to BN

Saturday, April 24, 2010

COME

Title: COME

Everybody hates you
You smell bad and disgusting
You have no manners
You have always embarrassed me
Your voice sounds terrible

Now my baby is born
After each feed I desire to hear you
Come, without delay
Come, now
Burp, come
Come with your stinking smell
Let no wind trap in his stomach
Come with your loud voice
Come with your rude way
Come, let me hear you
Burp, Come
Come!!


Poem: Difficulties in burping his son

Friday, April 23, 2010

Why my QL up?

This few days was quite busy.
Didn't really get in touch with stock market
Wondering why QL RESOURCES BERHAD price up more than 10%
Is it due to the new Palm Biomass Pelletising project that
turns palm waste to biomass energy? The palm pellet is
made from palm Empty Fruit Bunch (EFB).
The moisture content is only around 10%
from the normal 60% from other FFB biomass
What is QL target price fair value?
Due to uncertainty of the new project, I don't have a
fair value or target price.
But I'm keeping mine. Hope the project can contribute positively

Why Tomypak up?

Why Tomypak Holdings Bhd price up?
Saw in the news that CIMB raised its target price
or fair value to RM4.96 from RM4.66.
Reasons:
-Optimism over the prospects
-Rising demand for its high barrier metallised
packaging products
-Likely increase in net dividend payout ratio
from 24% to 27%, about RM0.14
- Higher margin
- Higher earning per share (EPS)
Catalyst includes further margin expansion and stronger
than expected revenue growth over the next few quarters

What is Turbo-Mech Bhd IPO Target Price Fair Value

What is Turbo-Mech Bhd IPO Target Price or Fair Value
They provide services and spare parts to oil & gas
industry
IPO price RM0.63. Worth to apply or subscribe?
Estimation only (using my PEGGY ratio)
2010 2011 2012
PE 7 6 5.1
Growth 15% 15% 15%
Gearing net cash
Dividend payout ratio: very low, about 10%-20% only
Net Dividend yield less than 2%
Figures look nice except low divided payout ratio.
I value it at RM0.72.
If they pay higher dividend, RM0.81
But I think, my opinion only, it will trade below
RM0.68 on the first day with small premium.
I can be wrong. My accuracy on IPO first day
listing price was very low, at 50% only.

ABCD Vs PE Vs G

What is PE ratio? What is PEG ratio?
The lower the PE ratio the better.

But now investor prefer an enhanced PEG ratio

Stock A: PE is 5
Stock B: PE is 10
Stock A is better.

Stock A Expected Growth: 5%
Stock B Expected Growth: 15%

Stock A PEG= 5 divided by 5 =1
Stock B PEG= 10 divided by 15 =0.67
So Stock B is better.

That's why some company PE is higher than others.

Peter Lynch, who wrote in "One Up on Wall Street"
said PEG equal to 1 is fair price.
So PEG ratio more than 1 is expensive and below 1 is cheap

I also look at G for Gearing when investing
(lower the better or best net cash).
I also look at Y for dividend Yield
So my own acronym is PEG + G + Y = PEGGY
When you invest in stock,
remember to use my PEGGY ratio to evaluate them.

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Wipro- Don't Just Buy Good Company

Wipro, an Indian Company listed in New York Stock Exchange NYSE
They have a company that distributes Eversoft
beauty products in Malaysia.
My friend told me worth buying Wipro,
good company with big cash.
Question....
Will you buy Dialog (good and profitable company)
if it goes up from current RM1.10 to RM4.00.
Remember it is good and profitable company.
No, I will not buy.
I will also not buying Tenaga (not so profitable)
at RM9.00. But if Tenaga now is RM4.00, I will buy.
My statement.....
I will not buy profitable Dialog shares at RM3.50
BUT I will buy not so profitable Tenaga at RM4.00
Conclusion...
Don't just but good and profitable shares,
but also must be CHEAP or at BARGAIN price.

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Turbo-Mech Bhd Fair Value

Turbo-Mech Bhd, distributor of rotating equipment for the oil, gas and petrochemical industry.
To be listed on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia on April 30, 2010.
Public issue of 18.068 million new ordinary shares at an issue price of RM0.63 per share.

What is Turbo-Mech Bhd IPO Fair Value or Target Price? Most analyst value most recent IPO with a big premium but most now trading below IPO price. JCY also traded below IPO price on the first day listing, below RM1.60. Imagine initially the offer price was RM2.00, not RM1.60

Shall we use different method to value IPO? Rather than use normal fair value, maybe analyst can come up with FIRST DAY EXPECTED LISTING PRICE. That will helps us very much to decide whether to subscribe. Agree?

Someone told me Phillips Capital published their report and tell customer  "Subscribe Maxis" in 2009, even before knowing the IPO price. So, that's nothing to do fair value, it is about first day listing whether above or below listing price.

Scomi JUMP in Fair Value

Saw in the news that AmResearch just upgraded from Hold to Buy with a fair value target price of RM0.76 from RM0.48.
Revised and JUMP to RM0.76?

Sure worth RM0.76? ......

Ayam Penyet

Ayam Penyet is a traditional Indonesian food from Surabaya. Fresh chicken is marinated with various spices and herbs . The meat is then smashed with a wooden headed hammer and deep fried until golden light brown. Special Skill needed is where it is crispy from outside and juicy inside.
 
I think it is called Smashed Fried Chicken.
 
Ria.

Monday, April 19, 2010

Who Will Win World Cup 2010

Who Will Win World Cup 2010
South Africa
Football Soccer

Due to TV coverage, Astro Live, EPL, Premier League,
I am an England supporter. Every year got disappointment.
I think any team can win except England.

Supermax Corporation Berhad 1Q 2010

Supermax Corporation Berhad 1Q 2010
First quarter ended 31/03/2010
Year on Year (compare with last year 1st quarter)
Revenue up 14.2%
Net Profit up 161%
Quarter on quarter (compare with previous quarter)
Revenue up 12.3%
Net Profit up 16.7%
I saw in The Edge 16 April 2010
Supermax Target Price given by CIMB is RM9.65
I notice nowadays CIMB is very bullish.
Their Target Price for many stocks are always
way beyond other brokers.

Sold 33% of ALL my stocks

Friday 16/04/2010 sold 33% of ALL my portfolio stocks
Why?
1) Very disappointed with Malaysia market. World market up
for the past few weeks but KLCI down. Overnight US up more
than 100 points, Asian market then up,but Malaysia market down.
2)Ringgit gets stronger against US Dollar. Will be great impact
on exporters.
Case:
1 USD 3.5 Ringgit
Sales RM350mil (US$100mil)
Cost RM300mil
Profit RM50mil
1 USD 3.2 Ringgit (up 8.5%)
Sales RM320mil (US$100mil)
Cost RM300mil
Profit RM20mil
Ringgit up 8.5%, impact is profit down 60%.

Seremban Engineering Bhd IPO Fair Value

Seremban Engineering Bhd IPO Fair Value
Someone ask me whether worth to subscribe Seremban.
By just looking at the trading of Seremban rights shares
which is about RM0.06, the market expectation is just
RM0.06 premium, which is less than 10% of the IPO price.
1)If you apply the IPO and hope to make a gain by selling
it after listed, you can't make much. It is a number game,
sometimes you make, sometimes got loss.
Look at JCY, above, below, above RM1.60 again.
2)If you have been following both Success and Seremban,
and are confident, then I have no comment (because I didn't
follow these two stocks).
3)If you apply for long term, you always can buy after
listed, even at higher price, things get clearer.

Saturday, April 17, 2010

SPM STPM UPSR

Anybody got any 2010 spot question? SPM STPM UPSR
Study very smart and get A-
Study very smart, got a wonderful spot question, and get A+
Which one you prefer? Sure have to study smart, but with extra help, why not?

Friday, April 16, 2010

Share Margin Financing- Asset or Liability?

Share Margin Financing- Asset or Liability?
My ex classmate had a margin financing.
His margin shares worth RM10mil and he owed the bank RM6mil.
When market crashed in 2008, his shares worth
only RM4mil. The bank sold all his shares and he ended up
owing the bank RM2mil without anymore shares.
He told me he always thought he has an asset of RM4mil,
but ended liability or deficit of RM2mil.
He was actually a very naughty boy since young.
Disco, pub, pills, gambling, family problem,
etc, you name it. For many years he can't eat durian
because he was drinking liquor very day.
End of last year someone brought him to Church and he
Became Christian. God has turned him to a good man now.
No disco, no pills, no gambling, no family problem,
no liquor, etc. He is now enjoying his durian.
A total transformed man.
Wish him all the best.
I am always in favour of Share Margin Financing.
Most businessman also get bank loan.
But must use it wisely. Sell when market up.
Or do repayment in the margin loan every month and
settle it within few years.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Amber Resources Sdn Bhd

Someone asked me who is Amber Resources Sdn Bhd.

They developed few projects behind Stadium Badminton Cheras, eg SeriMas, Bintang Mas.
DBKL is involved in some of the projects.

Bintang Mas is near Cheras LRT Station, selling about RM260,000 for 1300 square foot. Can rent out about RM1300 per month.

Public Bank Net Profit Up 1%

During noon time, Public Bank Bhd announced net profit
for the first quarter ended March 31 2010 grew 16.3%
to RM685.25 million from RM589.28 million a year ago
mainly due to strong growth in net interest and financing
income, higher non-interest income and lower loan
impairment allowances.
As compared with preceding quarter ended Dec09,
net profit grew just 1%. As expected no dividend was
declared.

Who Will Win Hulu Selangor By-Election?

Who Will Win Hulu Selangor By-Election 2010?
Pakatan Rakyat(Parti Keadilan Rakyat PKR, PAS,
DAP)
Pakatan Rakyat send Zaid, he is so famous now,
so can win many voters.
Even previously won by PR, but majority was so slim,
so that doesn't count.
Selangor state is under PR, so there's advantage

Barisan National
Currently Anwar Ibrahim is attacked from
Najib Najib Tun Razak, left right centre,
so BN has an upper hand
BN is using Hulu Selangor to test 1BN strategy,
nobody know for better or worse.
Recently BN popularity is rising as compared with PR
I think 50 50
I am not really into politics. But even if stock market
Collapsed due to political factor, I'm willing to suffer
the losses as long as all Malaysian can enjoy better life.

Seremban Engineering Fair Value

Seremban Engineering Bhd Fair Value
Subsidiary of Success Transformer Corporation Bhd
Every 15 Success entitled to subscribe one Seremban
Total Seremban listed shares 80 mil
Offer Price RM0.85 total 8 mil shares
Forecast EPS 2010 RM0.13. 2011 RM0.16. 2012 RM0.20
PE less than 7
ROE >15%
Gearing net cash
Dividend yield 6%
Track record: to be listed
I just don't know whether they can achieve
all the above figure. I didn't follow Success
or Seremban, so no comment on fair value.
Friends told me one broker value it at RM1.06

Mamee-Double Decker 50% Payout Ratio

Mamee-Double Decker share price up after they said they
will pay 50% of net profit as dividend. So the
dividend payout ratio is 50%. The dividend is to be
paid half yearly.
I have no comment (I don't know) on their future earning
or balance sheet. But I always encourage people don't just
buy profitable company, buy profitable company that have
high dividend payout ratio (refer my earlier post on
dividend payout ratio).
If you think Mamee price is cheap and is profitable with
strong balance sheet, then buy it, because they are
paying 50% as dividend.

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Pak Tomy

Tomypak (price around RM3.00)

PE: 5.4
ROE: >25%
Dividend yield 5%
Gearing: 12%

Number of listed shares 43mil

Recommended by at least two investment company.

Why Jaks Up?

my frined told me part of the reason is RHB new research report value it at RM2.00.
Anyway that day they signed an MOU to develop a project in Vietnam worth billions. No further comment.

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Well call CIMB Buy Call

Read in The Edge today that CIMB give BUY call on WELLCALL
Price now RM1.33 and target price RM1.76.

They said the prospects in the medium term are bullish.
Orders are coming in strong and margin has recovered
to the 25% level.

PE less than 10 and net cash of 30 sen/share (price just RM1.33)

Dividend expected 0.137 which is 10% yield. Next year higher also.

Report Card 2- REIT

After LPI, now Amanahraya REIT just reported quarterly result
Profit increase by 11.6%.
Soon will be Public Bank and other REITs to report.

Refer my earlier post on REITs.
I want to repeat few things.
1)You buy property and net rental is 8%, but is based on
FULL occupancy. Minus out vacant period, changing tenant and
agent commission, your return is much lesser. REIT 8%-9%
dividend yield is based on average occupancy.

2)REIT dividend yield is AFTER finance cost and whatever
touch-up/expenses. Your net rental return is BEFORE finance
cost and touch-up(renovation, replace furniture, etc).

3)Both REIT and your property offer capital appreciation.

4)Got owner still pay RM120 for someone to collect RM1,200 rental

5)You can easily buy and sell REIT.


But one thing good about buying property is you can choose
which specific property really got potential and hit it right.
Then the capital appreciation is much much more than REIT.
If you hit it right.

How to add Advertisement in Blog

For a start should just use Google ads first.
Later only add nuffnang, infolink, bidvertiser.

1)Go to Google Adsense and sign up
2) In your blog setting for LAYOUT,
click add GADGET (then the gadget is adsense)
3)For first time, they will ask you for you adsense account
Key-in your adsense account to link with your blog
4)Repeat the add Gadget process (the gadget is adsense)
5)For a start, just accept whatever default they give you
5)Remember to save all the changes in your setting

Still got problem, let me know.

Monday, April 12, 2010

Signature International 1 for 2 Bonus

Signature International Bhd, the trademark kitchen
and wardrobes supplier "SIGNATURE KITCHEN", proposed
1 for 2 bonus issue.

Share price up at midday now RM1.64, above my cost of
RM1.60. If include dividend RM0.08, cost is RM1.52.
That's why I like to buy counter with high dividend.

Friday, April 9, 2010

Various News

MISC Bhd
Rose the most in 20 months. Plans to list its Malaysia Marine
& Heavy Engineering Sdn unit,

Bina Puri
Business Times said a weekly business magazine reported
Bina Puri may win a RM1.1 billion airport terminal contract.

YTL Power
EPF bought 8.5 million shares YTL Power
from March 31 to April 2.

Kencana
April 9, 50 million shares done off-market at an
average price of RM1.59.

Tan Chong Motor RM7 by CIMB

I read in The Edge that CIMB Equities Research has upgraded
the target price of Tan Chong Motor from RM4.55 to RM7.00
using its sum-of-parts method.

Reason: Strong earnings growth trajectory; model mix expansion,
and regional ambitions and Indochina strategy,
and stronger ringgit.

Polite Market: Really can go so high?

Dividend Payout Ratio

If the company earns RM0.20 per share and pay RM0.12 as dividend, then the payout ratio is 60%. Not all company has a target dividend payout ratio.

Top Glove recently revised their target dividend payout ratio from 30% to 40%. Freight Management is about 40%. Homeritz is 40%.

Why High Payout?
Some company's business model is already mature and can generate more profit every year without fresh capital, and they can pay out high dividend, eg Digi, BAT, Maxis, Public Bank, LPI.

Good capital management. They want to maximise shareholder return and don't want the money to sit in the company without bringing extra profit.

Why Low Payout?
Some keep more money for raining days. I don't agree with this. Money in my pocket is better.

Some are in fast growing business, they need to reinvest the profit to earn more money. Some, even in mature industry, reinvest the money because there is potential to earn more money for shareholder.

But if the company retain the profit but didn't earn more profit, something wrong here.

S?? counter price is RM0.43 and earns RM0.15 per year, SUPERB high. But they only pay RM0.01 dividend (6% payout ratio). Why so low??

R?? price is RM0.69, they earns RM0.10 per year and pays RM0.01 dividend (10% payout ratio). Why so low?

If S and R can make more profit, then is ok. If not, then something wrong.

Another reason why company has a low dividend payout is because the profit is not cash profit, it is balance sheet profit. They made profit, but they didn't collect cash, it is in the form of debtors. If the debtors later default, then all the profits will be gone.


It is good that we invest in companies that pay dividend consistently.

Assuming you bought a counter at RM1.00 and they make RM0.20 (good right?) every year for 10 years. The price increase and trading in a range of RM1.30 to RM2.50. You didn't sell because they are still a very good counter. Suddenly world economy crash and the company started making losses and trade below RM1.00. What you get? They made so much money yet you get nothing.

Assuming you bought another counter at RM1.00 and they make RM0.20 per year. But they pay you 60% as dividend (60% payout ratio = RM0.12). Same case above, after ten years they trade below RM1.00. But what you get? RM0.12 X 10 years dividend =RM1.20. At least you take back your capital plus profit.

Your return on investment is capital gain PLUS dividend. Always look for company that has consistent dividend payout ratio.

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Report Card- Insurance First

Reporting season 1Q 2010 coming.
LPI just reported an 8% increase in net profit Year on Year.
Normally LPI is the 1st to report, then PBBank.
Then Bursa, then most of the REITs, Digi, Latex.
Hong Leong, CIMB, Dialog, IOI........
The first one to report will be an indicator for others in
the same industry.
So, if PBank good, other bank may be good, generally.
By the way, most of us are very eagerly waiting for Keck Seng.
For info, last year was 12/05/2009.

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Broker Ranking 1Q 2010- CIMB HwangDBS AmBank RHB OSK Maybank Kenanga TA Credit Suisse ECM Libra Affin Hong Leong Public Bank

Trading Value % Market Share
1. CIMB RM17.2bil 9.5
2. HwangDBS 15.7bil 8.7
3. AmInvestment 13.5 7.5
4. RHB 12.1 6.7
5. OSk 11.9 6.6
6-9. Maybank, Kenanga TA Credit Suisse
10-13, ECM Libra, Affin, Hong Leong Public

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

OSk Vs Broker- Sime Darby

Sime Darby now RM8.76.
I read in the Business Times that OSK rate Sime Darby a SELL
with target price of RM7.02
But recently I saw one broker rates it as BUY
with target price almost RM10.00.
So how?

Monday, April 5, 2010

QL- By The Edge

Read an article in The Edge weekly magazine on QL.
Points:
QL target that all three main division: Marine products, livestock and plantation will contribute evenly to the group revenue
Their young oil palm tree starting to bear fruits
Total plantation landbank can match those top ten listed plantation company.
They are very excited about their new technology, QL AgriPellet (refer my previous post)
They never ask shareholder for more money for the past 10 years.
Dividend payout ratio about 25%
Target rate of return is 20%.

Sunday, April 4, 2010

US added 162,000 jobs in March 2010

US Friday's non-farm payrolls report, which showed the economy added 162,000 jobs in March 2010, the fastest pace of growth in three years. U.S. markets were closed for the Good Friday holiday. Dow Futures up 30 pts.

Homeritz- Who are they

Homeritz Corp Bhd listed on on Bursa Malaysia in early 2010. IPO price was RM0.65.
The firm, based in Muar, Johor, is an integrated original design manufacturer (ODM) of upholstered home furniture. It is also an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) that contract manufactures based on designs provided by customers.

Friday, April 2, 2010

Kung Fu Vs Stock Market

To learn Kung Fung, generally need to learn 2 things.
Internal and External.

Internal (nuikong) is about how heavy is your punch.
How fast you can recover from injury. If you are strong,
no poison can harm you. Can reduce pain. You can even
transfer your kung Fu to others just by placing both your
palms to their back.

External (ngoikong) is about how fast is your punch.
About your style or stroke. How you can avoid being punch.
Your fast movement. How to attack and defense. How to use
sword.

Stock Market, we also need to learn two things.
Fundamental and Technical.

Fundament (internal) is about profit, dividend, sales,
growth, etc.

Technical (Chartist) is about chart, uptrend, buy signal,
sell signal, momentum, trend line, resistance level,
support level etc.

I normally evaluate fundamental. Now I am learning and
practicing Technical. Meaning later if the chart show
sell signal, I may have to sell a high growth and
very profitable company and buy back when
there's a buy signal.

Thursday, April 1, 2010

Bought Daibochi RM3.66 & Tomypak RM3.21

Read in The Edge that CIMB recommend to buy Daibochi and Tomypak.
Target price is RM4.60 and RM4.66

Two other brokers also recommended Daibochi and Tomypak.

I have been studying the two counters for few weeks.

ROE high >20%
Dividend good at 5-6%
Management very innovative
Gearing less than 20%
Daibochi expected in Net Cash 2011
PE 2011: Dabochi 9.9 and 5.6 (Tomy)

Both are entering to major non-Food & Beverage companies business.

Keck Seng Support now at RM5.40

Keck Seng support level of RM5.70 has been broken.
Decided not to cut loss because want to hold on
to the dividend and land revaluation.
My portfolio also got cash liquidity.

Now the next support level is at RM5.40.

ULiCorp Sold at RM0.715

Sold my UliCorp at RM0.715 for 5% plus plus profit within 3 days.
Decided not to hold after recent price run up.
Recent run up is due to more coverage after recommended
by an investment management company.

Sold because I don't like to hold counters that
have low dividend payout ratio. They keep the profit for what??
I have asked why ULicorp payout is so low but no reply.

Let others make the money. Will consider if it drop.

Supermax export to US set to increase 5% to 7%

SUPERMAX Corp Bhd (the world's second largest rubber glove maker) is set
to export additional 5 to 7 per cent to US following the recent US
healthcare reform. The reform will result in more usage of gloves, where
about 32 million uninsured Americans will now be covered and be able to
seek regular health check at health centres, nursing homes, dental
clinics, pharmacies and hospitals.

Hope my Adventa and Hartalega will also benefit from it.

Followers

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