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Monday, May 31, 2010

Dear KENMARK shareholders

If you invested in Kenmark 10 years ago at RM1.15 (dividend and
corporate action adjusted), you made 90% loss.

If you just invested in Kenmark 4 days ago (within contra period) at
RM0.85, you made 88% loss.

Polite Market's Comment
Dear KENMARK shareholders, do not lose heart. The max you lose is 100%,
but in stock market the max you gain is unlimited. Can be 20%, 200%,
500%.
But you must invest in an equal amount of value. Eg if invest RM5,000 in
Kenmark, you have to also invest RM5,000 EACH in other counters.
RM5,000 X 90% loss = (RM4,500) Kenmark
RM5,000 X 20% gain = RM1,000
RM5,000 X 40% loss = (RM2,000)
RM5,000 X 270% gain = RM13,500
Net gain is RM8,000

Please regain your confidence, and start to invest again. You can try to
use my PEGGY method, it may help you, if not, then go to Types of
Investor.

Kenmark Trade Receivables

KENMARK INDUSTRIAL CO. (M) BERHAD
Profit for 3 quarter ended 31/03/2010 = RM9.3 million
NAT RM1.95
Assets
Trade receivables RM249m (31.03.09 was RM164m)
Cash RM2m (31.03.08 was Rm19m)

Liabilities
Trade payables RM106m (31.03.09 was RM35m)
Polite Market's Comment:
They made profit by buying from suppliers (trade payables) and sell to
customers (Trade receivables). I believe suppliers are real (you can see
they are outside Kenmark building now), but how about trade receivables?
Just invoices?

KENMARK Run Away?

Read in the news...
KENMARK INDUSTRIAL CO. (M) BERHAD
What happen to Kenmark?
Why Kenmark down?
The Independent Directors tried to contact the MD on his mobile phone
but was unsuccessful. Attempt to contact the MD and the other Executive
Directors at the Taiwan office via the telephone and fax failed.
The Independent Directors gone to the Company's premises at Port Klang
and noted that the premises have been sealed and a security guard has
been placed to secure the premises.

Polite Market's Comment:
If you hold a counter and every year they made good profit but didn't
pay dividend, suddenly the same situation in Kenmark happen to your
counter. How?
It is better to invest in counters that pay you good dividend. At least
you get back something. If after many years, it may already get back
your cost.

FREIGHT Management Dividend

Gross Interim Dividend of 2.5 sen per share less 25% tax in respect of
financial year ending 30 June 2010
Ex date 28/06/2010
Polite Market's Comment:
I think dividend yield got 6.5% per year based on a 40% payout ratio.

YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BHD

Third interim single tier dividend of 7.5% or 3.75 sen per ordinary
share of 50 sen each in respect of the financial year ending 30 June
2010.

Ex date 28/06/2010
Polite Market's Comment:
I think can stop using %, just use sen will be better.

Thursday, May 27, 2010

Keck Seng NTA March 2010

Just announced result.
In the balance sheet, OTHER INVESTMENT increase from 245mil to 700mil
Total shares is 240mil. So, an increase of RM1.90 per share
Total NTA now at RM7.00 from RM5.00

Polite Market Comment:
Plus undeveloped land, the NTA can reach RM17.00
Even if NTA increase to RM100, and they don't pay you dividend, you get
nothing.
What you can do? Go to AGM, and demand they sell the land and pay you
dividend. AGM is in Johor, so Johorean have to go.

IPO Shin Yang Shipping Corporation Bhd

Shin Yang Shipping Corporation Bhd (stock code 5173)
IPO closing date 08/06/2010
RM1.28
Tentatively listing date 25/06/2010
Main Market

Polite Market's Comment:
116.386 million shares for institutional offering.
128.8 million shares Offer for sale

60 million shares for Retail offering
60mil X 1.28 = RM76,800 (quite big)

Sarawak cable is just 13m X RM0.70 = RM9.1mil
Seremban Engineering is 20m X RM = 0.85 = RM17mil

DO NOT set rigid price

Market down for many days.
If you decided to buy, I'm am not asking you to buy, but IF YOU DECIDED
TO BUY, please do not set rigid price.
Example buy KNM at RM0.40
Buy Maybank at RM6.50
Buy CIMB at RM6.00
Buy Talam at RM0.10

If it never touch your price and market recover and have mini bull, then
you are unable to join the bull ride.

Polite Market's Comment:
IF YOU DECIDED TO BUY, be a bit flexible. After a while, JUST BUY, even
it didn't touch your price.
If you bought CIMB at RM6.07, you can join the bull ride (if got bull
run).
But you only save RM0.07 (if you insist on RM6.00), and it may not touch
RM6.00 and you may miss out unlimited gain.

Types of Investor- Series 7- 50 Counters Investor

50 Counters Investor
I use real life example, my friend called Mercedes-Benz (fictitious
name).
He buys many types of counters, blue chips, penny, etc. If make, then he
will sell. If he likes the counter, he will keep. He will also keep is
the counters making losses. So he accumulated more than 50 counters.

How MERCEDES-BENZ or you can be improved?
POINT 1
You got so many counters. Before the eDividend, we have to bank-in the
cheque manually. Go to the bank, park your car, etc. There is cost and
time consuming.
Also some may lost in the post. If you know, then you can request a new
cheque, if not then your money is gone.
But now with eDividend, no more this problem

POINT 2
Corporate exercise, eg right issue. You have to buy bank draft and
submit before the deadline. Lost in the post or overlook. So many forms
to fill in and sign.
POINT 3
Too many counter you are not able to monitor the performance.

Solution
What you can do is use a Custodian Services (Nominees). They charge a
fee. Depending on which company. Eg right issue, they charge RM20. You
just sign a form and FAX it back to them. They will deduct from your
trading account. The RM20 is worth paying, for the time and parking fee.
If no Custodian Services, you have to buy bank draft, fill up form, post
or drive there. With custodian, just sign and fax. They monitor for you,
you don't worry lost in the post.
Without custodian, many offer/ right issue lost in the post or you got
no time.
But if your investment is small, no point holding too many counters.
Conclusion:
I can not change my friend's styles of investment. He still wants to
hold more than 50 counters, go ahead.
My friend MERCEDES-BENZ can be improved if he adjusts his trading or
investment according to all or some of the above.

SUNCRN + YEELee

Sorry, no data on these two.
Polite Market's Comment:
YEE LEE CORPORATION BHD
Doing well with increase in revenue from higher sales of bottled water,
cooking oil, aerosol cans and other agency products such as Campbell's,
Dutch Lady and Procter and Gamble. Also good performance achieved by the
associated company, Spritzer Bhd. Common shareholders and director with
Spritzer Bhd.
Last year YEE LEE CORPORATION BHD earns RM0.32 but just paid RM0.05
dividend only.

SUNCHIRIN INDUSTRIES (MALAYSIA) BERHAD (Suncrn) earn RM0.13 but just
paid RM0.02 as dividend.
Not familiar with these two counters.

Signature Kitchen- RM2.00 buy? Sinking?

Quarterly ended March 2010 result disappointed. Price RM1.45
S&P still recommend strong BUY with fair value Target Price RM2.00
Insider Asia also recommended BUY

Using PEGGY
PE 6.6
G Growth ZERO or negative
G Gearing- Net cash
Y Yield. Dividend yield 5.5% (RM0.08)

Polite Market's Comment:
I have Signature Kitchen, but I will not buy more or sell. Hold
Past ROE is above 20%. Now there's no growth.
The dividend is ok RM0.08. But many analysts disputed on the dividend.
Some say RM0.05, some say RM0.08. 2009 they gave RM0.08.
I hold because I hope things can turnaround. Still net cash and got
profit and dividend. Also because Signature is the smallest percentage
stock in my portfolio. My biggest percentage now is FREIGHT

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

YTL, IGB, KLCC ?

Read in the news.
Why YTL Corp down? Because of a reduction of the Malaysian builder's
weight in the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index.

Why IGB Corp down?
Why KLCC Property Holdings Bhd?
Because of their removal from the MSCI Malaysia Index.

Funds that track these indexes will have to sell to rebalance.
Polite Market's Comment:
One of the reasons I do NOT like about unit trust is they STRICTLY track
KLCI. So they have to hold Tenaga, whether good or not good. Some fund
also track FD rate, so low and so easy.
I prefer not to track blindly. Good counter is good counter, and bad is
bad.
Who made the decision for MSCI Index? KLCI?
Government hold so much CIMB, I'm wondering why CIMB has so high of free
float calculation for weightage in KLCI. BIAS!!!!

QL- RM4.60

QL now RM3.62. I saw from the net that RHB fair value is RM4.60

Polite Market's Comment:
Their marine profit down due to monsoon season
Their palm oil and livestock profit down due to lower margin
I'm a bit concern. But since listing, their profit increase every year
even during crisis. So the management is quite strong.
Hope next quarter things turn better.

JUSCO Sale from 22 May ~ 20 June 2010

JUSCO Sale from 22 May ~ 20 June 2010

Bursa Malaysia Stock Market sale
14 May 2010 ~ closing date not known yet.
Polite Market's Comment:
I went to Jusco and have a look, not many people and not much great
discount. I went to Bursa Malaysia stock market and have a look, also
not much great discount. Both Jaya Jusco and Bursa Malaysia are just
having normal sale, not mega sale.

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Chicken Rice Stall Vs Stock Market

If you open a noodle stall in year 2007. Then US sub prime crisis. Will you sell your noodle stall and buy back your noodle stall in year 2009?

And now will you sell your noodle stall again because of Euro debt crisis?

No, you will not!!! As long as your noodle stall makes money every year, during crisis make less, you will continue to keep your stall and receive the profit or income.


Polite Market's Comment:
If you DECIDED not to sell your shares during this Europe debt crisis, you are doing like what the noodle stall owners do. Keep the business as long as can make profit or income. The stock price is just an external valuation reference.

ARE YOU A TRADER OR A NOODLE STALL OWNER? I think I am a chicken rice stall owner.

Fact about Bear Market 1

Fact about Bear Market
In bear market, the total value of buyer and seller is the same. You
need buyer to match the seller
Example today market down 23.56 points, total value transacted was
RM1.78bil
Means buyer used RM1.8 billion to buy shares.
Seller sold RM1.8 billion.
Same amount of value for buyer and seller
Who is the buyer?? The wise man? The stupid man that try to catch a
falling knife? Those who have sold and buying back? EPF trying to
support market? Unit trust? Insurance premium that we pay every month?

Polite Market's Comment:
I am not recommending you to buy. Different people got different
strategies and still make money.
This "fact" is just to provide comfort for those who bought shares
recently and already got paper loss. Those who want to buy more but
suddenly got no courage.
If you are the buyer, you are not the majority or minority. Buyer and
Seller are 50% 50%.

SOS

SOS- Shares On Sale
Hartalega
Recommended Retail Price RM10.10
Now selling at RM7.50

QL
Recommended Retail Price RM4.60
Now selling at RM3.60
RM1.00 off

Freight
Recommended Retail Price RM1.40
Now selling at RM0.77
Polite Market's Comment:
Normally you buy things when there's sale or no sale.
If Maggie Mee, Bonia, Mommy Pokko, milk powder, enfalac, enfagrow, got
sale, will you wait? Maybe can get cheaper later?

MIRROR 1997-2000 Crisis

KLCI year
1997(681.08)              2007 348.79
1998 Sharp drop until Sep98 (8.31)         2008(568.28)
1999 226.20                     2009 396.03
2000 (132.69)             2010 ?????
2001 16.45
2002 (49.77)
2003 147.62
2004 106.20
2005 (0.35)
2006 196.45
2007 396.03

Polite Market's Comments:
Bear 1997 to Sep 1998
Bull Sep 1998 to 1999
Bear 2000 to May 2003

Bear 2008
Bull 2009
Bear 2010 to ??? mid 2013???
Then mid 2013 to 2017 FOUR AND A HALF YEAR BULL?
If history repeats, then we have to wait till 2013?
Not to worry, 2001 to 2003 is mini bear. Many still make profit.

Oversubscribe K-Star Sports Limited 0.35 times

K-Star Sports Ltd IPO
Issue Price RM2.15
Closing 18/05/2010
Tentative listing date 31/05/2010
Refer to my earlier post for more details.

Polite Market's Comment:
My GUESS is oversubscribed by 0.35 times.

Xingquan International Sports Holdings RESULT good with small dividend
Multi Sports Holdings Ltd RESULT good with NO dividend
XiDeLang Holdings Ltd RESULT good with NO dividend
My question is why small dividend and why NO dividend. I'm scare if got
profit but no dividend

WIN a TOYOTA Vios contest

I saw in an advertisement, spend RM1,000 on credit card and stand a
chance to win a trip for two to Europe.

Polite Market's Comment:
Stock Market is also like a contest
Invest RM1,000 and stand a chance to win a Toyota Vios. How?

Topglov has up almost 100 times (inclusive of dividend) for past 10
years
If you invested RM1,000, including dividend you will be having almost
RM100,000 now. A new Toyota Vios is worth RM80k

Based on selected large stocks for the past ten years....
Top Glove up almost 100 times
PPB 33 times
IOI Corp 12 times
QL 7 times

The above is just some selected counters, there are many many many more
So I come up with stock market prizes...

Invest RM1,000 in stock market and stand a chance to win great prizes:

Grand Prize: Toyota Vios
Second: Perodua Viva
Third: Trip to Europe for two (worth RM12k)
Fourth: 80 grams of 999 gold worth RM11,000
Others: trip to Beijing/Perth/Bali/iPhone/Notebook/ etc

Advantage of Stock Market "contest":
High chances of winning grand prize. One over ONLY 1200 stocks
Other contest the chances are slim, as low as one in more than 10,000 or
even millions
MORE THAN one winner for Grand Prize and ALL the prizes.
Can have more than few millions winners. Other contest only got one
grand prize winner, and limited winner for other prizes
You can increase your chance by buying more stock
You can even upgrade the prizes by increase in your investment value
No expiry date on the contest, is on going

Disadvantage of this contest is you have to hold it for 10 years

Why wait, buy your favourite stock now!!!
Contact your nearest brokers for more information on buying stocks

BM wins Champions League 2-0

Bayern Munich Vs Inter Milan 2010 Final
BM wins Champions League 2-0
BM is not Bayern Munich. BM means BIG MOUTH
Inter win Champions League 2-0, not Bayern Munich
Jose Mourinho is BIG MOUTH. He is self proclaim "The Special One"
Many excuses if he loses. Many dislike Chelsea because of him
But media loves him. He is a clown.
Football world needs him, so that not so boring

Polite Market's Comment:
When talk about Big Mouth, I remember in 1997 people called our Tun Dr
Mahathir IBM. It means Internal Big Mouth. He keeps attacking the
currency speculators. The more he attack or talk, the more Ringgit drop.
His wife they called her BMW. It means Big Mouth's Wife.
How people can give this kind of name to our Prime Minister? They should respect him!!!!! They should repent!!! Does he deserve our respect?

Monday, May 24, 2010

Sell SIME Buy GENTING PLANT

Read in the news that CIMB Investment Bank Bhd analyst Ivy Ng Lee Fang
said should sell Sime Darby Bhd and switch to Genting Plantations Bhd to
gain exposure to the Malaysian plantation sector, according.

Polite Market's Comment:
All counters come with a price. Now SIME is RM7.85, and Genp is RM6.16.
If investors want to follow CIMB recommendation, questions need to be
asked are:
If SIME drop to RM7.00, still sell? If RM6.00 still sell? RM5.00? What
price still consider a "SELL"
If Genp RM7.00 still can buy? RM8.00?
Good counter got a price. Bad counter also got a price.

Malaysia Building Society Bhd

Malaysia Building Society Bhd (MBSB).
They provide property financing.
Major shareholders are Employees Provident Fund (EPF KWSP) 67% and
Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB) 15%
Read in the news that they are talking to Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM).
They want to become a full-fledged bank. This is according to Affandi
Nasir, head of the company's strategic planning department.

Polite Market's Comments:
MBSB "was" a good counter, and should have make a lot of money during
Malaysia economy and property boom in the 90s. But bad management.
Sincerely wish them ALL THE BEST

Saturday, May 22, 2010

Rumours BUY Aeon Jusco Target RM41.60



Buy Aeon Co Bhd (Jusco) shares, sure make money!!!
Photo given by someone who got a shock when paying for parking in Jusco.
2 hours parking in JUSCO cost RM8,000

Polite Market's Comment:
Assuming 100 visitors per day per store
100 X RM8,000= RM800,000
10 stores = RM8,000,000 per day
Per year profit is RM2,920,000,000 (2.92 billion)
Cost? their departmental store profit can cover all the cost

Number of shares listed is 351mil
So earning per share is RM8.32

Aeon share price is RM5.00
PE is superb low 0.6 only
If pay half profit as dividend, the dividend yield is 83%

I think Aeon is worth a buy or Outperform, with fair value target price at RM41.60 (732% upside)
I use PE 5 times to value.

Where can find such good stock on earth?

Friday, May 21, 2010

New Zealand

From:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand
New Zealand is an island country in the south-western Pacific Ocean comprising two main landmasses (the North Island and the South Island), and numerous smaller islands, most notably Stewart Island/Rakiura and the Chatham Islands.
The indigenous Māori language name for New Zealand is Aotearoa, commonly translated as The Land of the Long White Cloud.
The Realm of New Zealand also includes the Cook Islands and Niue (self-governing but in free association); Tokelau; and the Ross Dependency (New Zealand's territorial claim in Antarctica).
New Zealand is notable for its geographic isolation: it is situated about 2,000 km (1250 miles) southeast of Australia across the Tasman Sea, and its closest neighbours to the north are New Caledonia, Fiji and Tonga. During its long isolation New Zealand developed a distinctive fauna dominated by birds, a number of which became extinct after the arrival of humans and the mammals they introduced.
The majority of New Zealand's population is of European descent; the indigenous Māori are the largest minority. Asians and non-Māori Polynesians are also significant minority groups, especially in urban areas. The most commonly spoken language is English.

New Zealand is a developed country that ranks highly in international comparisons on many topics, including education, economic freedom, and lack of corruption. Its cities also consistently rank among the world's most liveable.

Polite Market's Comment:
I have been to Australia, and wish to visit New Zealand, a very nice country. Agree that New Zealand is a very nice country?

Hartalega RM10.10

Hartalega RM7.70
My friend told me Maybank IB Research Buy recommendation on Hartalega
Holdings Bhd with fair value target price of RM10.10
They think when industry overcapacity, Hartalega is in better position
for battle due to economies of scale and higher margins.

Polite Market's Comment:
Overcapacity is in two years time. May I ask you a question?
Which industry does not have overcapacity now or two years later.
According to economic studies, in longer term, ALL industries will have
averaging return. Meaning if this industry is good now, everybody join
in, and make it average. If bad, then people leave, and improve to
average.
Don't worry about overcapacity. Everybody already knew and the price
factored in. Analyst report also already factored in the oversupply.

Suzuki Car

Suzuki Swift 1.5 a/t auto transmission RM71,706.50

Swift Sport
1.6 m/t manual RM97,130.50
1.6 a/t auto RM102,974.50
Grand Vitara 2.0 a/t RM116,710.10
SX4 Sedan 1.6 RM88,888
SX4 Sports Crossover RM87,490.50
Polite Market's Comment:
I have paid so much taxes for my cars, where did my money go?

Intimate - NTPM

NTPM sell lady pad called Intimate
Not sure whether many ladies aware that the company is called NTPM
Highlighted by CHONG. Thanks
NTPM Holdings Bhd
Biggest Malaysia tissue paper and toiler paper manufacturer
Premier, Cutie, Royal Gold, Intimate.
60% market share of local market
Also export to Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, Thailand and China
Price RM0.55

Using my PEGGY Method:
PE: 9.5x
G: Growth about 10% for next two years. ROE about 18% past five years
G: Gearing less than 15%
Y: Yield (dividend) is only 6.3%-7.3% (committed- no policy yet, payout
ratio 50%)

Polite Market's Comment:
I don't have much data. But I see moderate growth. One thing I like is
defensive stock with generous dividend. Although no payout ratio policy,
they committed for at least 50%. They have been paying more than 60%.
They are diversifying into recycling and stationery business.
Don't know why, quite like this stock, I will buy and add more whenever
the price drops.

Types of Investor- Series 6- Blue chips Investor

Blue chips Investor

I use real life example, my friend called Hyundai (fictitious name).
He only buy blue chips, eg Tenaga, CIMB, Pbbank, Maybank, Sime Darby,
IOICorp, etc. So, past twenty years he made some money and received
dividend.

How HYUNDAI or you can be improved?
POINT 1
KLCI index is 1350 in early 1994. Now year 2010 is 1290.
Meaning, if you have invested RM1,350 in 1993 or 1994 and now you will
be having shares PLUS dividend worth ONLY RM1,290. After 16 years your
loss is 4.4%. Next few weeks probably be worse.
Please take note that the index up and down already inclusive of
dividend (it is already adjusted for dividend).
POINT 2
KLCI is the best of the best. Meaning if a counter making losses, it
will be out of the KLCI. Only big elite counters can enter as KLCI index
component stocks. Why KLCI not performing? Because they are too big that
difficult for them to perform and they are government linked counters.
They have other agendas.

POINT 3
Why invest in blue chips?
I read in recent Malaysia Finance blog, he said management is top
priority. So, do you think the blue chips company management is good?
Malayan Banking (Maybank) bought overseas banks at superb high price.
Sime Darby cost overrun and have hundred millions of losses
Tenanga year 2000 net profit RM2bil, year 2009 is ONLY RM918mil
You called all these blue chips?
POINT 4
By using Dollar Cost Averaging (refer my post on dollar cost averaging)
will help. Rather than buy a lump sum, buy progressively over a period
of time with fixed amount of investment on every interval.
POINT 5
10 years price INCLUDING dividend
Tenaga RM10.32, now RM8.14
Maybank RM6.85, now RM7.32 10years up just 6.9%
CIMB RM2.60, now RM6.90
PBBank RM2.27, now RM11.60
Genting RM3.28, now RM6.56
MAS RM2.43 now RM1.94
Meaning if you invested RM10,320 in Tenaga, now after all the dividends
you are having only RM8,140. LOSS LOSS LOSS
As I have said in Series 1, I can not change your style and preference.
Go ahead and invest in blue chips. But use PEGGY to evaluate the blue
chips. Then you would have avoided Tenaga and MAS (previously). Maybank
also not performing, 10 years including dividend only gain 6.9%.
Conclusion:
My friend HYUNDAI made some money by investing in blue chips. But he can
be improved if he adjusts his trading or investment according to all or
some of the above.

Who is the Saviour of the World?

During Asian Financial crisis in 1997, US economy was still ok. So they
can save the world.
During US sub-prime crisis in 1997, China was still growing strong. So,
China save the world.
Now Europe debt crisis in 2010, US also not stable, China bursting. Who
can save the world?

Polite Market's Comment:
Who is the saviour?
All this is about debt. That's why gearing of the company is very very
important. The return may be lower if the gearing is low or no gearing,
but much safer.
Before crisis, you need to be cautious of stocks with high gearing.
During crisis, avoid stocks with high gearing. Others may rebound 100%,
but some may be dead and never recover.

BMW Vs Volvo

Volvo
S80 from RM295,000
Acceleration (0-100)
Six-speed Geartronic transmission 2.5T(200hp)7.5 s
3.2 (238hp) 7.9 s
XC60 from RM330,000
Acceleration (0-100)
Six-speed Geartronic transmission 7.5 s

BMW 5 Series Sedan
523i Exclusive Edition
Acceleration 0 - 100 km/h (in s) 9.1
Acceleration 0 - 1,000 m (in s) 29.7

Polite Market's Comment:
Why Volvo faster than BMW?

Thursday, May 20, 2010

IPO SIG Gases Bhd

SIG Gases Bhd
Main Board Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad listing approved by
Securities Commission
AmInvestment Bank Bhd is the adviser, sole underwriter and sole
placement agent.
SIG manufactures, refills and distributes industrial gases, namely
oxygen, nitrogen, argon, carbon dioxide, dissolved acetylene, gas
mixtures and fuming gas.

Polite Market's Comment
Last year 2009 got 14 IPO, this year May 2010 already 10

IPO Ivory Properties Group Berhad

IPO Ivory Properties Group Berhad
Plan to list on Main Board
Now calling those shareholders with certificate to deposit with Bursa
Malaysia Depository Sdn Bhd (Central Depository) CDS MCD from 24/05/2010
to 24/06/2010

Polite Market's Comment:
Imagine last time before CDS, during hot market in 1993 the broker staff
have to stay back until 2am just to sort the certificate.
Free food, free taxi, claims, free nearby hotel. But no family life.

Genting Singapore Plc

Read in the news....
Genting Singapore Plc, recently DBS Group Holdings Ltd upgraded the
stock to "buy" from "hold," saying earnings will increase.
What is Genting Singapore Plc International Ltd fair value target price?
I saw from the net that RHB gives $$1.35

Polite Market's Comment:
What to do during bear market. If you like the stock but are not buying,
you KIV the good news. But don't ignore the good news.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Noodle Store Vs Stock Market

If you open a noodle stall in year 2007. Then US sub prime crisis. Will
you sell your noodle stall and buy back your noodle stall in year 2009?
And now will you sell your noodle stall again because of Euro debt
crisis?
No, you will not!!! As long as your noodle stall makes money every year,
during crisis make less, you will continue to keep your stall and
receive the profit or income.

Polite Market's Comment:
If you DECIDED not to sell your shares during this Europe debt crisis,
you are doing like what the noodle stall owners do. Keep the business as
long as can make profit or income. The stock price is just an external
valuation reference.
ARE YOU A TRADER OR A NOODLE STALL OWNER? I think I am a chicken rice
stall owner.

I was right on Masterskill IPO

IPO RM3.80, but Final Retail Price is fixed at RM3.50 per share.
I applied 3 lots and got 3 lots.
Sold at RM3.93 for 10% gain, either over RM3.80 or RM3.50

Polite Market's Comment:
Sometimes we predicted correctly that the listing price will be higher
than IPO and we applied, but we may not get it. Didn't make any money.
Those we predicted wrongly and we got it, we make losses.
If we apply all, we may end up striking those loss making, and didn't
get those money making IPO
CONCLUSION
FIRST we need to predict correctly, and then apply
SECOND we need to strike it and get allotted.
THIRD if our prediction is wrong, we applied but don't get it.
Tough game!!!

I was wrong on Masterskill IPO Prediction

Masterskill Education Group Berhad
Stock Name: MEGB Stock Code: 5166
Book building. The Institutional Price has been fixed at RM3.80 per
share.
Final Retail Price is fixed at RM3.50 per share.

Polite Market's Comment:
My guess is open at RM3.95 and close at RM3.70.
But it opened at RM3.60 and closed at RM3.96
My prediction is totally terbalik.
My accuracy now drops again.

Wilmar under Investigation

Read in the news
The Jakarta Post of Indonesia has reported that some Indonesian
subsidiaries of Wilmar are under investigation for alleged unlawful
value-added tax-restitution claims made by those subsidiaries in
Indonesia. Tax fraud case.
CIMB Equities Research maintain Outperform on Wilmar International Ltd
with lower target price of S$7.85 (from S$8.40).
Buy if the market overreacts on this news. Re-rating catalysts from a
conclusion to the tax fraud allegations, higher weightings in key
indices and a revaluation of the Chinese yuan.

Polite Market's Comment:
What is the worst case scenario here? Some said earnings drop by 22%.
How about reputation?
How about getting approval for future project?
Affect cash flow? Will any account be freeze?
Is there any similar incident that is not known yet?
How about the authority finds nothing wrong?
A lot of uncertainties.

Last Call !! Last Call !! Boarding

Freight Management at RM0.81
Base on MACD chart analysis, BUY SIGNAL was triggered.

Polite Market's Comment:
Still got seller at RM0.81. If the chart is true, it is Last Call ! Last
Call ! Get on board and fly to Macau holiday, Vietnam vacation or Bali
tour. Gold Coast free and easy.
BUT ..... if the chart technical analysis is not true, then the plan
will crash.
I don't know much about Technical Analysis. Need others to guide me on
this.
I buy because Freight is cheap with very strong fundamental and
recommended by many analysts, with RHB analyst gives fair value of
RM1.40

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

BUY SIGNAL- Confirmed ! Freight

Freight Management today closed at RM0.81
Base on MACD chart analysis, FREIGHT short-term 12-period exponential
moving average (EMA) HAS CROSSED OVER the longer-term 26-period EMA.
BUY SIGNAL was triggered.

Polite Market's Comment:
I don't know much about Technical Analysis.
This MACD very straight forward. Cross up buy, cross down sell. I'm still learning.
Anyway, FREIGHT is a very good counter (refer my earlier post), I read in the net RHB fair value target price is RM1.40, which is 75% upside.
Hope it really shoot up, and up and up.

ecLiMo Penan

Read in the news....
EcLiMo Sdn Bhd appoints Naza Bikes Sdn Bhd to assemble e-scooter under
the brand name of ecLiMo Penan. Malaysia's first.
Assemble the ecLiMo model at its Shah Alam plant.
The plant has an annual production capacity of 40,000 ecLiMo (Eco
Lithium Mobility) units.
The e-scooter is powered by an electric motor and rechargeable lithium
battery, which are produced in Penang and Kulim respectively.
Its performance similar to a 125cc petrol-powered motorcycle
Top speed of 110kph.
Range of 100km on a single charge
Low voltage battery of around 60V
Three hours to be recharged in the house
RM0.87 to charge the batteries for a distance of 100km
Compared with RM6 worth of petrol for a combustion-engined motorcycle

Polite Market's Comment:
1)Do you think Malaysia will be heading towards countries like China and
Vietnam where the most people use bikes?
2)Or We will be heading towards countries like Hong Kong and Singapore
where the public transport and LRT are very convenient?
I give a FAIL to our government of more than 50 years. The public
transport is lousy.

Monday, May 17, 2010

Masterskill- IPO Prediction

Masterskill Education Group Berhad
Listing 18/05/2010
IPO price RM3.80 now became RM3.50
Bookbuilding. The Institutional Price has been fixed at RM3.80 per
share. Strike price RM3.80. Accordingly, the Final Retail Price for the
Retail Offering is fixed at RM3.50 per share.
Read in the news that Kenanga Investment Research Fair Value for
Masterskill Education Group Berhad is RM4.08
They are using 12x PE forecast FY11
Read from the net that RHB gives fair value at RM3.88
The target price is based on 14x forecast FY10
Polite Market's Comment:
My guess is open at RM3.95 and close at RM3.70. Hope I got it right this
time.

Sarawak Cable Bhd IPO using PEGGY

What is Sarawak Cable Bhd IPO Fair Value Target Price?
Manufacture power cables and wires. One third of power cable market
share in East Malaysia
IPO price: RM0.70
Tentative listing date 25/05/2010
PE: 9
G: Growth 8% - 18% next two to three years. ROE 10%
G: Gearing net cash
Y: Yield- Dividend yield 3.5%

Polite Market's Comment:
Figures look fair, but not attractive enough for an IPO. I believe they
will not be impacted by the depreciation of foreign currency.
Currently my IPO accuracy is ONLY 52%. My guess for Sarawak Cable is
trade and close near RM0.67 to RM0.73. Close at a loss but higher than
RM0.67.
Anyway, don't forget that our dear Najib may announce a lot of goodies
during the coming Sarawak state election.

HONDA CITY

HONDA CITY-Grade S & Grade E
The Sensible Performer
The City goes easy on fuel. Its 1.5-litre i-VTEC powerplant provides
class-leading performance and fuel economy.

Smarter Drive
Wise up to fuel-efficient driving. The vehicle information display shows
current and average fuel efficiency, plus estimated travel distance
before refuelling.

Save Fuel with 5AT
The class-leading 5-speed automatic transmission packs an efficient
speed range, giving you better fuel economy and quietness even on high
speeds.

Paddle Shift for Grade E
Keep both hands on the wheel. The paddle shift* increases the enjoyment
for sporty driving with fingertip gearshift control on the steering
wheel.
Fits Your Adventures Nicely
Golf getaway with your buddies? The City packs four golf bags in its
spacious trunk.

Lean Back and Relax
Not only are the City's seats soft and plush, the rear seats also
recline*. Long rides are truly a joy in the City.

Practical Storage- For Grade E
What do you do with messy wet umbrellas? The City offers an answer:
store them in the special underseat tray. Fits shoes too.

Cool Cabin
The quick-cooling air conditioner brings swift relief to hot days.
Additional vents on the rear seat floor are a welcome surprise.

Polite Market's Comment:
I heard due to the recall of Toyota cars, in Malaysia some of Toyota
buyers have switched to Honda. But I still prefer Toyota Camry and
Toyota Vios.

At Last, got it Spritzer!!

Both Yee Lee Corporation Bhd and Spritzer Bhd have common shareholders
and directors.
Yee Lee has up steadily since 28 April 2010. But Spritzer not moving
yet, so my friend asked me to watch out on Spritzer.
Friday 14/05/2010 bought Spritzer at average RM1.07 and sold RM1.12 for
a quick gain. Don't know anything about Yee Lee and Spritzer, just for
fun, market is so quiet now.

Friday, May 14, 2010

Tatt Giap Group Bhd IPO

Read in the news Tatt Giap Group Bhd intends to raise RM8.45 million
from its initial public offering (IPO) to pare down its debts.
Main Market, RM0.58, Penang-based, tentatively end of June 2010
Adviser, sole underwriter and placement agent: Alliance Bank
Issue 14.56 million new shares, of which six million are for the public,
two million for eligible directors, employees and individuals who have
contributed to the success of the company, and 6.56 million for
identified investors.
Cashing out their investments, the company's existing major
shareholders, Giapxin Sdn Bhd and Perbadanan Nasional Bhd, are offering
14.2 million shares for sale to bumiputera and selected investors.

Polite Market's Comment:
Why major shareholders want to cash out at RM0.58? To reward bumiputra
and "selected investors"? Who are the selector investors? Or they think
that RM0.58 is a good price to sell?
My guess is to reward bumiputra and selected investors.

Sarawak Cable Berhad- IPO Contact Number

Telephone Number
Tel no
Contact Number

Registered Office
Tel: 082-433111
Fax: 082-433311
Head Office
Tel: 082-433111
Fax: 082-433311
Auditors and Reporting Accountants:
Ernst & Young
Tel: 082-243233
Solicitors for the Listing
Tel: 082-410111
Malaysian Issuing House Sdn Bhd
MIH
Tel: 03-78418000
Symphony Share Registrars Sdn Bhd
Tel: 03-78418000

Thursday, May 13, 2010

FREIGHT- Buy Signal

Base on MACD chart analysis, FREIGHT (RM0.80) short-term 12-period
exponential moving average (EMA) is about to cross over the longer-term
26-period EMA. So, if cross it is a buy signal.

Polite Market's Comment:
I don't know much about Technical Analysis. What is and how to use
candlestick, ichimoku, bollinger band, Momentum, On Balance Volume, RSI,
Stochastic, Williams %R, etc.
I find MACD quite easy, very straight forward. Cross up buy, cross down
sell. I'm still learning.
Anyway, FREIGHT is a very good counter (refer my earlier post), I read
in the net RHB fair value target price is RM1.40, which is 75% upside.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

HELP !! Give me RM0.40

Highlighted by CHONG. Thanks
Help International Corp Berhad
College University
Price RM2.30
Using my PEGGY Method:
PE: 10x
G: Growth about 18% for next two years and
G: Gearing is net cash
Y: Yield (dividend) is only 1.5% (payout ratio 15% only)

Polite Market's Comment:
Looks ok, but PE is not low, moderate. As long as they can achieve the
growth, it will compensate the moderate PE.
But dividend is low.
They have RM88 million cash which is about RM1.00 per share
Conservatively, minus out total liability RM53.5mil (includes fees in
advance) will be having RM0.40 net cash per share
But why paying only 15% profit as dividend? The dividend yield is only
1.5%
Will HELP change their dividend policy to reward share holder? They have
huge net cash, payout ratio of 50%, the dividend yield will be 5%. Will
they also pay out the RM0.40?
HELP !! Give me RM0.40

IPO Accuracy increases to 51% now

Turbo-Mech Bhd IPO and Seremban Engineering IPO first day trading and
closing price was very close to my prediction.

Polite Market's Comment
So my accuracy increases from 50% to 51% now. Still VERY LOW. I always
guess wrongly. Hope can increase my accuracy.

Can Apply K-Star Sports Ltd- Malaysia IPO ?

Refer to my earlier post.
Issue Price RM2.15

Whether can apply or subscribe the IPO?


Polite Market's Comment:
Need to check out the prospectus to see the financial.

If ok, then will wait till last minutes, see whether the three previous
China IPO result out already or not AND whether got declare GOOD
dividend or not. If yes, chances of premium higher. If not, then the
risk is quite high.

Proposed POS to take over Transmile

Shareholders proposed POS MALAYSIA BHD to buy over air cargo transporter
Transmile Bhd, during the AGM on 12 May 2010. Pos Malaysia is
Transmile's second largest shareholder with a 15% stake.
Pos Malaysia chairman Tan Sri Aseh Che Mat said the board would take
note of the proposal by shareholders and deliberate the issue carefully
at the next board meeting.

Polite Market's Comment:
For me, I am not investing in Transmile because losses in every quarter
and a lot of uncertainty.
Transmile debt is very huge about RM500 million. If you decide to invest
in Transmile, you must weigh on the risk versus your return. Why you
want to buy? Target price? Down sharply will rebound? White Knight will
take over? When? Who? Where you get the news? Will it be delisted? Buy
base on chart?
I know many people made money in trading in Transmile, but I also know
many MORE made losses.
All the best to you.

Hartalega upgraded by RHB

Read in the news that RHB just ungraded from Market Perform to
Outperform.
Their profit exceed RHB and market forecast.
Polite Market's Comment
Hartalega is one of the most efficient glove marker.
I didn't check all the glove companies, but Top Glove and Hartalega are
two rare high growth glove companies with net cash, or close to zero
gearing.
If glove industry downturn, they can survive better.

Types of Investor- Series 5- Crisis Investor

Crisis Investor
I use real life example, my friend called BMW (fictitious name).
He only buy when there's a crisis. So, past seven years he has not been
buying anything. In 2008, he wanted to buy Public Bank near RM7.00. He
missed it and now already RM12.00, PLUS he misses out this few years
dividend.
How BMW or you can be improved?
POINT 1
DO NOT just set a fix price to buy during crisis. Set a TIME. Eg buy at
RM7.00 within 1 or 2 months. IF didn't reach RM7.00, just buy back at
any price. Must buy. The example above shows my friend has missed out on
Public Bank because he fixed the price at RM7.00. You never know the
bottom.

POINT 2
Don't sell so soon. Wait for recovery. Share price probably will
increase more than 100% during recovery. Evident in 1998 and 2008

POINT 3
Stock Market move SIX months ahead of economy
I think most will agree that 2008 is crisis. But when to buy?
Recession only impacted strongly on our late 2008 and early 2009
economy. But market already down in 2008 and recover in early 2009. You
can see that BNM announced negative figure but stock market already
rebound.
So, don't wait for negative figure then only buy. Buy on stock market
crisis and not when economy crisis figure is out
POINT 4
Buy base on percentage gain (High volatility) and not absolute gain. Eg
up from RM0.50 to RM1.50 (up RM1.00 or 200%) is better than RM5.00 to
RM10.00 (up RM5.00 or 100%)

POINT 5
During crisis, some company may go bust. So must be extra careful.
POINT 6
Many stock gives good dividend. If you are only buying during crisis,
where did you put your money if not in crisis? If in FD, why not buy
quality stock with good dividend? Much higher than FD in longer term.
But if your money put other places can generate good income for you,
then continue to do what you are doing.

Conclusion:
In 1998, my friend BMW made a lot of money (in terms of percentage), but
in terms of absolute ringgit, not much. Also past few years, my friend
BMW put his money in FD and missed out many stock market opportunities
even during crisis, both capital gain and dividend. But he can be
improved if he adjusts his trading or investment according to all or
some of the above.

Hartalega Holdings Berhad- Bonus 1 for 2

Hartalega Holdings Berhad just proposed Bonus 1 for every 2 held
Polite Market's Comment:
Example a profitable counter is trading RM4.00
After 10 years is about RM4.40, up ONLY 10%
But many didn't realize shareholders have received many rounds of bonus
and good dividend yearly. Total worth may be already more than RM20.00
My point is buy good fundamental company.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

What is 1120 Park Avenue ?

1120 Park Avenue is a new property.
Condo next to New Pantai Expressway
Go in from Wisma Peter
Developer is Peter's Group of companies
Reach Sunway in 7 minutes
Easy access to SMART tunnel, Federal highway, KESAS and Seremban Highway
1120 Par Avenue Sdn Bhd lowyat forum net blog
Peter's Holdings
870 sq feet to 1,193 sq feet
Choice of 2 to 3 bedrooms for 870 sf
Price? Various on launching phase, size and floor
About RM214,000 for 870 sq ft on the 9th floor
Two parking
Interest payment during construction: ZERO
Repayment after construction: ZERO
Legal fee on S&P: ZERO
Why got so many people discuss on 1120 Park Avenue online?
Many youngsters bought it, many are internet savvy.
Just down payment and a legal fee on loan, they don't not need to pay
anything else during three years construction and one and a half year
after completion. Most youngsters got no money yet. They can move in to
stay one year plus without having to pay installment. By four years
time, they can afford to start paying the installment, so is very
attractive to them.

Polite Market's Comment:
Most young people just started working got no money to buy property and
start the installment. When they got money after few years, the property
prices up already, and also beyond their reach. So with this scheme, it
actually help them to own a property first. Later when they got the
increment and saving, they can start paying.

K-Star Sports Ltd- Malaysia IPO

K-Star Sports Ltd IPO
Issue Price RM2.15
MIH
Closing 18/05/2010
Tentative listing date 31/05/2010
15.32 million new shares with 3.4 million shares allocated for the
Malaysian public and the rest for selected investors.
Multi Sports Holdings Ltd, XiDeLang Holdings Ltd and Xingquan
International Sports Holdings.
There will be a fourth China company to be listed on the Main Market of
Bursa Malaysia, K-Star Sports Ltd.
Total RM32.94 million
RM9 million for raising the company's production capacity
RM5 million for sales and marketing network expansion
RM4.5 million for enhancement of product design and development
capabilities
RM3 million on branding and advertising efforts
Others for working capital and listing expenses.

Do what:
Apparel, include athletic footwear and leisure wear.
It has four production lines and produces four million pairs of shoes
in-house annually. They are also the original design manufacturer (ODM)
and original equipment manufacturer (OEM) for international brands
including Umbro, Diadora, Kappa, Le Coq Sportif, Die Wilden Kerle,
Canguro Cosby and Bridgestones, as well as PRC footwear brand, Double
Star.
Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer is Lim Yeow Eng
Last year revenue was RM570 million and a pre-tax profit was RM88
million
Polite Market's Comment:
What is the fair value and target price?
If you wish to apply, you may wait till last minutes, see whether the
three previous IPO result out already or not.
Let you have a look at the three previous IPO
Xingquan International Sports Holdings IPO RM1.71, first day close
RM1.78
Multi Sports Holdings Ltd IPO RM0.85, first day closing RM0.765
XiDeLang Holdings Ltd IPO RM0.58, First day closing RM0.63
But please check current closing price, already down 30% to 50%

Hartalega Fair Value Increase by OSK RM9.89

Read in the news OSK raised Hartalega Fair Value Target Price from
RM8.92 to RM9.89.

Polite Market's Comment:
I have surveyed many people, all are bearish, so they are not buying any
shares now. So, if this is their strategy, SO BE IT. But keep the fair
value. When the market rebound (if they know when, I don't know), they
can consider these recommended stocks. So at that time, no need last
minute search what stock to buy.

Types of Investor- Series 4- Percent Trader

Percent Trader
I use real life example, my friend called Bala (fictitious name).
He likes to do buy a counter and sell when he made 10% profit. Normally
he will buy quality counters. When the counter drops, he did not sell
because he think it is a good counter and should buy more (but he seldom
buy more). So he normally made 10% but loss is 30% to 50%.
Bala bought Adventa at RM2.20 and wanted to sell 10% higher at RM2.42.
He went to Perth and didn't manage to sell. The price now is RM3.30,
which is 50% gain, rather than just made 10%. Although he didn't sell at
high RM4.30, which is RM1.00 lesser now, but I see he is better off than
sold at RM2.42

How Bala or you can be improved?
POINT 1
10%???? After risen 10%, most of us sell because we THINK it will drop
and we can buy back when it drop to RM1.03 or lower.
Now assuming that if you buy a stock at RM1.00. It went up 10% to
RM1.10, and you sell. Question: What are the chances that it hit RM1.10
to RM1.03 highest and drop back to at least RM1.03 for you to buy back?
The chances are ONLY 5% or less.
It can go all the way up to RM1.20
It can touch RM1.10 and drop back to only RM1.08 and swing back to
RM2.00
It can reach RM1.15 and drop to RM0.80 and swing back to RM4.00
It can just shoot up to RM3.00
Etc etc etc
So, the chances that it hit your RM1.10 to RM1.03 highest and drop back
to at least RM1.03 for you to buy back are ONLY 5% or less.
My suggestion is since your prediction chances are so low, why not let
your profit run?
Scenario.... It goes all the way up to RM2.00, you did not sell, it drop
back to RM1.15 and you sold. Sold at RM1.15 is better than your RM1.10
Scenario.... It goes all the way up to RM2.00, you did not sell, it
drops back to RM1.40 and you sold. Some say you worse off by RM0.60
(RM2.00 minus RM1.40), but I say you better off by RM0.30 (you plan to
sell at RM1.10 but you sold at RM1.40).
Scenario.... If you have chosen the right stock, it can even touch
RM3.00 and you may sell at RM2.80 or RM3.20
But you say if you don't sell, you afraid it drop. I have said it, the
chances that you predicted correctly the highest is very slim. It may
not touch your RM1.10 or it can touch any price above your RM1.10. When
things not right, it went up to RM1.10 you didn't sell, you can always
sell at RM1.08. Only RM0.02 difference compare with unlimited upside
potential
You can set your 10% profit target. But not necessary you have to sell
at 10%. Let it run higher. Anything above your 10% is a bonus to you
because you can't predict the highest.

POINT 2
When the price reaches RM1.30, you may change your target RM1.20. That
means if it drop near RM1.20 you sell. Sell anything above RM1.20 is
MUCH BETTER than sell at RM1.10
POINT 3
Cut loss. Made only 10%? How about loss? You may consider your cut loss
strategy

Conclusion:
Past yew years, my friend Bala is making gain in his 10% strategy during
bull market, but making 30% -50% loss during bear maker. But he can be
improved if he adjusts his trading or investment according to all or
some of the above.

XDL Dividend Yield 20%

Refer my post on XiDeLang Holdings Ltd, the FORECAST Dividend Yield is
20%

Polite Market's Comment:
It is forecast, and is about CONFIDENCE whether they can achieve the
forecast.
I heard there's one similar counter listed in Singapore, the profit fell
90%. That's why fund managers got no confidence in XDL. 20% yield fell
90% will equal to only 2%.
Last quarter many expect XDL to declare dividend when they announce the
quarterly result, but they did not. So, the price went all the way down.
Three years ago, I told a listed company CEO that he must be very happy
on his counter price increase. He told me he got more pressure because
of the price increase. Shareholders expect the same dividend yield. So,
at RM2.00, he is paying 4% yield, that is RM0.08. When up to RM5.00, he
said many fund expect also around 4% yield, so about RM0.20, or at least
RM0.15
Now that XDL price is so low, even the company got good profit, they may
give moderate dividend.
Do you think XDL will announce very good result in this coming quarter
result announcement? If yes, do you think XDL will announce good
dividend also?

Interpret stock market Dream

All stock market dreams are easy, make money.
But how to interpret news?

When Tengku Razaleigh rejoins UMNO, who is link to Tengku Razalieg?
Most will say MUI and PMIND, so at that time, MUI and PMIND went up.
When recently AirAsia have an agreement with Malaysia Airport on new
LLCT, who is link to the new LCCT?
Most will say Bina Puri, who is favour to win the new LCCT project. But
the share price didn't go up.
When China president Hu was here in Kuala Lumpur, who is link to China?
XDL and Multi Sport. So both also went up.
When Barisan Nasional lost many seats in previous General Election, many
UMNO link counters were down sharply
But now they have recovered.

Polite Market's Comment:
When you read newspaper, you can ask which counter is link to the news.
Just LINK will be enough, not necessary got benefit or worse off.
This is more for short term play.

Monday, May 10, 2010

Buy KNM- Says Maybank

Read from the news that KNM Group Bhd was upgraded at Maybank Investment
Bank Bhd from sell to buy because the stock's valuation is attractive
and its operations are improving.

Polite Market's Comment:
Now almost all investors got KNM.
Before Ex I bought KNM when it was RM10.00 and sold at RM13.00. Not many
people have KNM at that time. I see the quarterly result not so good,
then I disposed off. It went higher and I have forgotten about the
stock.
KNM is very volatile, good for those who buy low sell high. Not me,
because I don't know how.

XiDeLang Holdings Ltd- Can Buy?

What is XDL Fair Value or Target Price?
XiDeLang Holdings Ltd Research Report or recommendation?

Let us use PEGGY here:
PE: 2 times ONLY
G: Growth 22%, ROE about 30%
G: Gearing Nil. Net Cash
Y: Yield for Dividend 20%!!
Excellent figure!!
Polite Market's Comment:
If Maybank, Genting, or Sime Darby got this kind of figure, I will ask
my whole family to buy. Ask all my neighbour.
But I heard there's one similar counter listed in Singapore, the profit
fell 90%. That's why fund managers got no confidence in XDL
If you want to invest in XDL, you need to ask yourself whether XDL can
achieve the above.

Seremban Engineering Bhd- Less than RM0.10

In my earlier post, my guess is Seremban Engineering Bhd IPO first day
listing price should have less than RM0.10 premium.
With market condition worsen since then, my prediction is it will trade
near RM0.85 IPO price.

Polite Market's Comment
Now market do not bother about what is Seremban Engineering Bhd IPO fair
value or target price. Now the market trend is ignore good news and sell
ahead of bad news act on bad news.
If really want my guess, I think it will trade and close between RM0.80
to RM0.85

Saturday, May 8, 2010

Compound Interest

Albert Einstein said compound interest is the greatest invention of all time.

By just investing $0.10 with an compound interest rate of 4% per year.
What will be total figure be after 950 years?
$1,519,400,740,898,440.00

1997 years will be
1,036,522,132,010,870,000,000,000,000,000,000.00

Friday, May 7, 2010

Types of Investor- Series 3- Day Trader

Day Trader


I use real life example, my friend called Maria Sharapova (fictitious
name).
She likes to do day trade, buy and sell for quick buck within the day.
If losing money, she does not like to cut loss, normally she will contra
within T+4, if not then picked-up.


How Maria Sharapova or you can be improved?


Monitor oversea markets
If you buy the stock at RM1.00 and it moved up to RM1.03 and you decide
to take profit at 4.00pm with index unchanged, but most oversea markets
are just started to rebound strongly, you may want to wait awhile.


Monitor any latest big news
Self explanatory


Monitor other counters in the same industry
If all glove company up, but one glove company didn't go up, then you
may consider that one.


Mother and warrant
If mother share up sharply, the warrant not yet, then you may consider
that one.


Brokerage
For day trader, the gain is slim, example 3%, so the brokerage form a
very big percentage on the profit and loss. Eg 0.3% buy and 0.3% sell
are 20% of a 3% gain. So, a very low brokerage can help a lot. Find a
cheaper broker. I heard some offering zero brokerage is no gain. But you
may want to stick with the remisier if he/she provides better service.


Know when to cut loss. Quick Buck means very little percentage gain. 3%
or 5%. Very hard to get 10% because she probably sell it at 5% gain
because day trade for quick buck. Her gain is 0%, 2%, 3%, 5%, and
sometimes 10%. Average is less than 4%.
When she got it wrong, the stock is falling also by about 4% within the
day. The problem is she let the loss to snowball, so her loss is 2%, 3%,
5%, and sometimes 10%, AND SOMETIMES 20% AND SOMETIMES 50%!!!!


Her track record is number of Gains more than number of losses
10 times of average gain of 4% = total 40%
She just needs one 50% loss to wipe out ALL the gain. Not forgetting
other small losses


You must know when to cut loss. We have to admit sometimes we got all
wrong in predicting the market. Sometimes we got it right.


Which stock to keep or which one to cut
If you decided not to cut loss, make sure that the one that you hold or
pick up is good fundamental stock (preferably good PEGGY). The problem
with Maria Sharapova is most of the times she picked-up stocks that is
poor in fundamental


Chartist
Day trade is very short term, so learn a bit of technical analysis will
help


Psychological Price
I always hear people say I will buy if it drop below RM1.00. Will sell
if above RM5.00. So this RM1.00, RM10.00, RM5.00, RM3.00 are
Psychological Price. If the stock is trading at RM0.98, you can expect a
lot of selling pressure at RM1.00. Your profit may not be big for day
trade. If the stock is trading near RM1.02, immediate support can be
found in RM1.00

Conclusion:
Past yew years, my friend Maria Sharapova is losing money in doing day
trade, but she can be improved if she adjusts her trading or investment
according to all or some of the above.

OSK Investment Bank Jewel 50 Part Two

I like small company, so I would like to have the Jewel 50 by OSK
Investment Bank.


Imagine 50 small companies !!! Not just small company, but GOOD small
company!!!!


But one thing not good about the book is their forecast is just until
financial year 2010. But sometimes no use to forecast so far ahead, too
many uncertainties.


Polite Market's comment:
I'm still trying to get the book.

Sarawak Cable Bhd IPO Fair Value Target Price

What is Sarawak Cable Bhd IPO Fair Value Target Price?

Issue or offer Price RM0.70
Main Market
Closing date 13/05/2010
Public Issue 13,000,000
Offer for Sale 19,000,000
Issuing house MIH 489
Tentative listing date 25/05/2010

Once again, to decide whether worth to subscribe the IPO, I am more
interested to know what is the expected FIRST DAY IPO LISTING PRICE

If the fair value is RM1.00 and first day expected to list below RM0.70,
I better buy from the market.

If I just want to make money and sell on listing day, expected FIRST DAY
LISTING PRICE is more important.

I always got wrong for IPO, very hard to guess. So, shall I apply
Sarawak Cable Bhd? Sarawak State Election is coming soon.
How?

Types of Investor- Series 2- Dividend Investor

Dividend Investor
In Types of Investor Series 1, I mentioned that many of us have our own
style, some like dividend stock and refuse to buy other counters. So I
am unable to convince them to buy other counters, I can just help them
to improve on their current style of investment. So my first type of
investor in my series is Dividend Investor

I use real life example, my friend called David Beckham (fictitious
name). He likes to buy counters that give big dividend. So, he bought
many counters around RM10.00 to RM20.00, because they are giving RM0.30
to RM0.40 BIG dividend. He will rush to buy before the ex-date.

How David/you can be improved?
Dividend should use net, that is after your personal income tax. If you
are not paying tax, or tax exempt dividend, then gross and net is the
same.

On the ex date, the price will be adjusted. Eg RM10.00 paying RM0.30
dividend, on the ex date the price will be trading near RM9.70 and not
near RM10.00. Whether it trades above or below RM9.70 depends on the
market sentiment. So, no need to rush to buy before ex.

Dividend yield is more important than absolute amount. RM1.00 paying
RM0.05 dividend is better than RM10.00 paying dividend of RM0.30.
Because the yield of the RM1.00 is 5% and the yield of the second
example RM10.00 is just 3%

Newspaper is old data, it doesn't represent the future dividend. But can
be used as reference and track record.

You must ask whether the bulk of the dividend track record is special
dividend or normal dividend. If special dividend, then the company may
be able to sustain the dividend payment in the future. Normally special
dividend is for temporary and after few quarters, they stop paying
special dividend.

Gearing is important. If high gearing, dividend may not be sustained.

Growth is equally important, not just dividend. Assuming you buy counter
A worth RM10.00, paying RM0.60 dividend, 6% yield per year. After two
years, profit down and the counter trading at RM7.00. You received
RM1.20 divided but loss RM3.00 on the price. Then because profit down,
the company also paying lower dividend, now only about RM0.30 per year,
so it will take many years to recover your loss.

Dividend payout ratio. You need to know the dividend payout ratio POLICY
(refer my post on dividend payout ratio). If the company makes RM1.00
and payout ratio is 40%, you will receive RM0.40 as dividend. And if
profit down and earn only RM0.60, at least you will receive RM0.24. Some
companies do not have payout ratio policy. So when profit down to
RM0.60, they may not pay you dividend or just pay you super small
amount. The policy is important, when profit up, you will receive more
dividend rather than little dividend.

Conclusion:
My friend David Beckham is doing the right thing in buying counters that
pay high dividend. Generally counters that consistently pay high
dividend are profitable and low gearing, generally. He has been making
money for many years. But David Beckham's profit can be improved if he
adjusts his trading or investment according to all or some of the above.

Did you buy, sell or hold

Market down sharply, many expect it to down further in near term.
Someone told me if we start buying when the market on downtrend, we are
just like trying to hold a knife when it falls. The result will be full
of blood.

Polite Market's comment:
If you buy, you are right. You buy during crisis, and nobody knows when
market will rebound. BUT you must have fund to buy more if it drop
further.

If you sell, you are right. Because many expect it to down further. BUT
you must buy it back, even more than what you have sold. My friend sold
PBBank at RM10.00 and hope to buy it near RM7.00. He missed it and now
already RM12.00. PLUS he misses out this few years dividend. DO NOT just
set a fix price to buy back. Set a TIME. Eg buy back at RM7.00 within 6
months. IF didn't reach RM7.00, just buy back at any price. Or switch to
counter to buy. Must buy.

If you hold, you are right. Nobody can really predict the market. But
you must buy more if it drops further.

Am I talking rubbish? Buy is right, sell is right, hold also is right!!
ALL are right, no matter you buy, sell or hold, you must keep buying,
whether now, sooner, or later.

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Types of Investor- Series 1

In order to help you to improve on your profit on your investment or
trading, I will come out with a Series on Types of Investor. Different
investors have different preference, and actually nobody interested in
the stocks that I like. So, rather than to change your style or counter,
you continue to invest in your own counter and your own style, I will
try to help you to improve on it.

Examples of types of investor that I will cover are buy low sell high,
contra player, dividend player, chart, buy during crisis, blue chips
kaki, rumours, small cap, etc.

OSK Investment Bank Jewel 50

For 2010, OSK Investment Bank has come out with Top 50 Malaysian small
cap list called "Jewel 50". The 50 companies have an upside potential of
5-15 per cent.

In the sixth edition, OSK continued to feature 50 top small cap
companies. This year the market capitalisation threshold has been
increased to RM1.5 billion from RM1 billion.

Polite Market's comment:
I didn't know they have such a report or book. I just saw it today.
I hope I can get a copy of this.

How to get PEGGY Figure

PE: You can not take PE from newspaper. Old data. Can be used as reference to support only.

G: Growth rate of the net profit. Expected long term growth. Normally forecast 2-3 years. Nobody can really forecast with 100% accuracy and more than 3 years. Most analysts, their accuracy is about 70%. They will adjust their forecast quarterly when the result is out.

G: Gearing. For formula, people use Long Term Liabilities divided by Equity Shareholders' Funds. You can look at balance sheet to find out the figure. Old data never mind, because changes are normally
minimum Every quarter. Now quite common people use Total Loan minus out cash and cash equivalent, then divide by Equity Shareholders' Fund

Y: Yield, dividend yield. You can not take from newspaper. Old data. Can be used as reference to support only. You can also find out the dividend payout ratio policy. If 40%, means if they earn RM1.00 per share, they will pay out RM0.40 dividend (refer my post on payout ratio).

PE, Growth and Yield, you need to take forecast. Historical data use as reference to support and is important to serve as track record. Gearing can take current, but preferably forecast, if available.

Conclusion: PEGGY Method rely on forecast figure. But how to get? Have to refer analysts or research report. Most brokers have their own research report available to clients. They have done all the hard work. Just take out the report and just check out the PEGGY figure, quite fast and simple.

Many people make a lot of money without using PEGGY method. They buy low and sell high, then buy low again and sell high again. But I am not good at that. So PEGGY is useful for me.

Hope this help. Feel free to ask more if need more clarification.

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Bina Puri tendered RM4 billion projects

Read in the news that Bina Puri was having AGM just now. They have tendered for projects worth RM4 billion. The the property division should be busy this year and beyond, with total potential gross development value (GDV) of close to RM500 million. The UEM-Bina Puri joint-venture is one of the finalists for the new RM2 billion Low-Cost Carrier Terminal (LCCT) in Sepang. Etc etc etc

For info, total BPuri shares is about RM106 million, now price is RM1.20, so market capitalisation is RM126 million

Polite Market’s Comment:
I have no comment on Bina Puri.
I notice for many counters, the next day after the Annual General Meeting, most of the times the newspaper will publish good news about the company. Sometimes the stock will fly on that day.

But which company will have good news being published after AGM? No need to think. As long as it is a good company, anytime will have good news, be it AGM, secure project, The Edge write up, recommend by analyst, research house initiate coverage, etc. So, buy good fundamental company.

Freight Management Bhd- Q & A session

Q & A session
Why people (me, Malaysia Finance blog Dali, the late famous analyst
Choong Khuat Hock, RHB analyst-I saw from net) like Freight?
Answer: Because of the Fundamental vs the price, means good bargain

Low liquidity?
Answer: Yes, you are right. NO fund manger will like this.
They are buying by the millions. But I am not fund manager.
I can easily enter (buy) and exit (sell) without any difficulty.
Furthermore, I am a long term investor, I don't sell frequently.
According to Dali from Malaysia Finance blog, Freight lack coverage,
I believe later they will have more coverage and better liquidity.
At that time, you can't get this current price.

Small company?
Answer: yes, is a small company. A small company have 1 Kopitiam.
Five years time, when they have 20 kopitiam, the growth is
plus minus 2,000%.
Assuming a big company have 2000 kopitiam, in order to grow 2,000%
they need to have 40,000 Kopitiam. Which one is easier?
From 1 to 20 or from 2000 to 40,000?

Many more company at par to this company or even better for
mid/long term investment?
Answer: Yeah, I am DESPERATELY looking for other good counters too.
I need others to recommend to me.

Freight, using PEGGY method
PE: less than 7
G: Growth: 11%-15%
G: Gearing, no gearing, net cash
Y: Yield. 5.8% dividend yield, will go up, consistent 40% payout ratio

Recently I saw Dali recommend London Biscuit.
But many commented on the high gearing

Dialog is high growth with net cash, but PE high and dividend so so
QL is high growth but got a bit of gearing. PE & dividend so so
Public Bank has same growth rate with Freight but high PE

Conclusion:
I like Freight Management because it fulfill ALL my PEGGY method
Malaysia Finance blog Dali, and the late famous analyst
Choong Khuat Hock and RHB analyst recommend Freight also
recommend Freight
RHB gives a fair value / target price of RM1.40,
which is VERY BIG 75% upside.
Other stocks target prices are normally less than 30%

I am also constantly looking for other good counter,
preferably can meet my PEGGY criteria. Please alert me if got any.
Thanks

Must We Sell?

Now the market tends to ignore good news
A bit of bad new, it will drop
No bad news also still drop, base on old bad news (Greece)
You see people on the street bearish

Polite Market's Comment:
I think most of us are bearish.
But many refuse to sell ALL their current holding. Why?
Not sure whether is bearish?
Sayang to cut loss?
Or is it near bottom?

For me, I don't know. If I know, I will be trading Futures
What I am doing is accumulating, very selectively.

Who will be Suspended

Five counters to be suspended by Bursa from Monday 10/05/2010
due to failure to make a timely submission of their accounts
for financial year ended Dec 31, 2009. (refer to Bursa)

0139 HDISPLY 0063 DISTECH, 3697 OILCORP 9733 MAXBIZ 7147 TRACOMA

Polite Market's Comment:
I normally avoid unprofitable company.
But if you have these counters, don't be discouraged.
I know many people stop investing because got burned heavily
I always tell people the maximum loss in one counter is 100%
But the potential gain is UNLIMITED

Don't let losing money in stock market discourage you.
Keep investing, preferably use my PEGGY method

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Fair Value Masterskill Education Group Berhad

Read in the news that Kenanga Investment Research Fair Value for
Masterskill Education Group Berhad is RM4.08
They are using 12x PE forecast FY11

Read from the net that RHB gives fair value at RM3.88
The target price is based on 14x forecast FY10

Polite Market's Comment:
So how? RM4.08 vs RM3.88
Then you divide by the two is RM3.98

Fair value or target price is there.
But for IPO, I am more interested to know what is the
FIRST DAY LISTING PRICE

Why LPI up?

Read in the news...
Why LPI up?
LPI CAPITAL BHD up on 03/05/2010 after Kenanga Research initiated
coverage on the stock with a buy recommendation at RM15.04 and
target price RM16.80.

Polite Market's Comment:
1) Now the price already RM16.00. Already near target price.
Most of us always got rumours / news late. I suggest you concentrate
on stocks that recommended by analysts and still far from target price.
Or you also buy good stocks that nobody interested, and when got more
coverage the stocks will up.

Example, I am just giving example only.....
Now less than RM0.80, they said FREIGHT Management Bhd
RHB fair value is RM1.40.
Also recommended by Malaysia Finance blog Dali,
and the late famous analyst Choong Khuat Hock.
So, this still got plenty of room to grow.

2) LPI is very illiquid, only recently a bit of volume.
Analyst will apply 20% to 30% discount on illiquid counters.
But I saw two analysts didn't apply discount on LPI and NO strong
justification. Why? The answer is inconsistency and bias.

AirAsia Pontianak Malaysia Airport New LCCT IPO

Read in the news.....
MALAYSIA Airports Holdings Bhd (MAHB) (5014) has given AirAsia Bhd
the assurance that the new low-cost carrier terminal (LCCT) in
Sepang will be ready by March 2012.

AirAsia now plans to reinstate destinations such as Hadyai,
Palembang, Pontianak and Balikpapan.

Polite Market's Comment:
Almost every week I saw Air Asia in the news.
But almost 6 years AirAsia now is still trading near its IPO price
Dividend also very low.
You still hold AirAsia??

Monday, May 3, 2010

KNM Upgraded

Read in the news ......
KNM Group Bhd, an oil and gas services provider, was upgraded to
"hold" from "fully valued" at HwangDBS Vickers Research Sdn Bhd,
which said the company was unlikely to record further loss provisions
OSK Research Sdn Bhd raised the stock to "neutral" from "sell."

5% US Dollar Vs 1.5% Notion Profit

Read in the news, Notion Bhd chairman Thoo Chow Fah said....

For every 5 per cent drop in the dollar's exchange rate against the
ringgit,
Notion Vtec's net profit could fall by 1-1.5 per cent.

Polite Market's comment.....
Not that bad after all.
If US Dollar drop 20% to Ringgit RM2.70, the impact only 4% - 6%?

I think the impact is more. Let ne discuss with some analysts.

Will Keck Seng Do This?

So far most of the company that I'm watching, the result is
within my that expectation, exceed or below a bit.
There is one I'm watching but totally can't predict.
Keck Seng.

Many people ask me these questions and I can't answer:
Will KSeng sell their land?
Will Kseng pay special dividend?
Will Keck Seng buy land / business or pay special dividend?
Will Kseng revalue their land?
Will Kseng announce big jump in profit due to revaluation?
When will Kseng develop or revalue their land?
How much Keck Seng worth?
What is Kseng fair value target price?

My answer is I DON'T KNOW

Polite Market's Comment:
What is the most important responsibility of Directors to shareholders?
They have to be responsible to stakeholders eg pay staff salary,
take care of environment, etc.
The most important responsibility of Directors to shareholders is
TO MAXIMISE SHAREHOLDERS' RETURN

I invested RM1.00 in the company, the higher the return the better

Case....
Company A profit RM200 million
Every RM1.00 I invested, the return is RM0.20
Then issue rights issue 1 for 1
Profit increase to RM300 million. Good?
BUT now every RM2.00 I invested, the return is RM0.30 only
Meaning if RM1.00 invested, the return is RM0.15 only.
BAD!!!!

How can Directors MAXIMISE SHAREHOLDERS' RETURN?
Examples...
Increase profit.
Don't simply do private placement or rights issue
Improve the counter price
Unlock company value

Keck Seng price is RM5.36
Net Tangible Asset (NTA) about RM5.00. If revalue, may reach RM17

Past 10 years Keck Seng price up from RM2.14 (adjusted for dividend)
to now RM5.36, up 150%. Less than 10% a year. Ok lah.

But if KSeng revalue the land and develop it, etc,
I think KSeng probably will earn more profit and trade near RM15 now.
If Kseng sell the land, shareholder probably may get
as much as RM8 dividend, that can cover all the cost of investment,
be it RM2.14 or RM5.36

No point being rich is asset but shareholders get nothing.
Who knows, maybe two years later KSeng starts making heavy losses
for few years and become negative NTA. Then shareholder get nothing

As a Director, your job is to MAXIMISE SHAREHOLDERS' RETURN

Saturday, May 1, 2010

What is PEGGY Ratio Method

Rather than just rely on PE ratio, or now the trend is PEG ratio, we also need to evaluate gearing and dividend yield. I try to make things easy for you all to remember, so I come out PEGGY method to evaluate a company.

PE G G Y

PE is PE ratio. The lower the better.
G is Growth, expected long term growth rate eg 15%. The higher the better
G is gearing, the lower the better, best is net cash
Y is yield, ie dividend yield. The higher the better

All are important. More than 10 years ago I just look at PE, which is not enough.
Now people like to use PEG, that is using PE ratio divided by growth rate. The lower the better. But also not enough. Many don't bother about gearing.
Some investor just look at Dividend Yield.

You need to consider all. So, I advise you to use my PEGGY method
Just remember PEGGY, easy right.

If your remisier ask you to buy Genting International Ltd Singapore or IOI Corp, you can start asking him, what is the PE? Then ask him what is expected growth rate? How about gearing? Is dividend yield high?

Followers

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