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Monday, November 29, 2010

Careplus IPO oversubscribe allocation table or basis of allotment for both Public and Bumiputra.

Careplus IPO PUBLIC ISSUE is oversubscribed 84.67 times.
The Careplus IPO over subscription rate is so high. No wonder Careplus IPO is so special, more difficult than strike Petronas Chemical, even the Bumiputra portion also difficult to get. I am interested to know the listing price of Careplus IPO. 


Careplus IPO Balloting Table:
http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/edmsweb.nsf/ba387758ae37412b482568a300466fb6/cd8e5a37ef45401d482577e70038f221/$FILE/PRESS%20RELEASE.pdf

Cikgu what is Law of Demand?

Sekolah Form Four Economic/ ekonomi Text Book for SPM
Cikgu what is Law of Demand?

Cikgu: a microeconomic law that states that, all other factors being equal, as the price of a good or service increases, consumer demand for the good or service will decrease and vice versa. For example, a consumer will purchase more cars if the price of car falls. The opposite is true if the price of car increases.

Student: Why in stock market the lower the prices in bear market the less demand. The higher the prices in stock market during bull run, the higher the demand?

Cikgu: That is exceptional case. Same as antique.

Student: For the exception of Law of Demand in stock market and antique, is it due to real economy decision or psychological?

PoliteMarket's Comments:
Not all, but majority are based on psychological. Is your decision to sell or not buying, or buy or not selling, psychological? Or economydecision?

Sunday, November 28, 2010

AirAsia Target Price RM3.78 Vs AirAsia Fair Value RM2.10

AirAsia just announced their 3rd quarter result.


OSK came out with a report with AirAsia Target Price RM3.78 BUY
RHB came out with a report with AirAsia Fair Value RM2.10 UNDERPERFORM
AirAsia price is about RM2.67

You want to follow OSK or you want to follow RHB?


Three months later AirAsia to announce AirAsia 4th quarter result.
Then we will know.

Saturday, November 27, 2010

Genting SP Target Price Fair Value - Genting Singapore Target Price

Various Genting Singapore target Price Fair Value:


Citigroup raises Genting Singapore target price to S$2.75 vs S$2.45,
Buy rating. Says 3Q Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) net revenue, EBITDA of $732 million, $347 million exceeded forecast. Estimates RWS gross gaming revenue (GGR) of around $850 million in quarter, 53-per-cent market share, but down vs 2Q as Marina Bay Sands ramped up (generating around $713.7 million GGR).
15 November 2010

Credit Suisse Genting SP target price fair value S$2.65 vs S$1.68
Credit Suisse raises Genting Singapore target price fair value.
Strong tourist arrivals, a robust economy, active property market and rising stock market will likely translate into stronger casino revenues. The company provides high beta, liquid exposure to Singapore tourism, potential catalysts include seasonally strong results for next two quarters, potential licensing of junkets in 2011.
12 November 2010



Macquarie raised Genting SP target price fair value to $1.83 from $1.75
Macquarie downgrades Genting Singapore to Underperform from Neutral;
The current consensus expectations for Genting Singapore are overly aggressive. In their view, most do not capture the risk of competition from Marina Bay Sands, rising political risk and limited impact from junket approvals.
But Genting SP target price raised to $1.83 from $1.75 to account for higher estimates for Singapore gaming market.
18 November 2010


HSBC starts Genting Singapore at Underweight.
Genting SP target price fair value S$2.05 target;
Stock trading on 2011E EV/EBITDA of 16.8X, P/E of 27.8X, which above industry peers.
22 November 2010


Genting Singapore Target Price Fair Value S$2.51
OSK. BUY
12 November 2010.



Genting Singapore Target Price S$2.45
RHB Market Perform
12 November 2010.

Friday, November 26, 2010

PChem IPO Target Price Fair Value and CIMB to Support Price

Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd research head Yeonzon Yeow said a 10% premium on its first-day trade on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia would be commendable, above its offer price of RM5.20 per share.
RM5.72.

CIMB has been designated as the so-called stabilising manager for the IPO and would carry out its mandate to keep the stock stable for a maximum of 30 days post listing.

PChem Target Price Fair Value RM5.70 by Affin
Petronas Chemicals Group Berhad Target Price Fair Value RM5.51 by OSK
PetroChem Target Price Fair Value RM5.70 by JF Apex
How much is Petronas Chemicals worth?
PetChem is worth RM6.64 to RM6.70, The Star quoting Maybank.

What is Petronas Chemical PChem target listing price or estimated listing price on the first day listing?
According to The Star, about RM5.50 to RM5.70.

Sources: The Star, Business Times, The Edge Daily.


POLITEMARKET COMMENT:

Someone applied through investment bank book-building.
But have to pay 2.5% management fee and the price is institutional price.

Applied 100 lots at RM5.20 = RM520,000
Get about 20%, = 20 lots.
Cost is RM5.20 + 2.5% management fee = RM5.33
Assuming sold at RM5.50, after 0.3% brokerage = 5.4835
Profit RM0.1535 X 20 lots = RM3,070
RM3,070 divided by RM520,000 = 0.59%
Take sales cheque on T+3.
Made 0.59% in a month, WELL DONE !!!

Petronas Chemicals have to be sold above RM5.50 to make it more meaningful.

What is Petronas Chemicals Stock Code? 5183
What is Petronas Chemicals Stock Name: PChem
Petronas Chemicals ISIN Code: MYL5183OO008
Petronas Chemicals Number of Shares Issued and listed: 8,000,000,000

Thursday, November 25, 2010

HuaYang too small too risky? HuaYang Target Price Fair Value RM1.16

HuaYang analysis Research Report.
HuaYang Target Price Fair Value RM1.16.
PEGGY Method Blog stock share news Hua Yang Bhd (5062)
HuaYang share price RM0.955
-
Let us do my PEGGY method test:
PE: P/E ratio
G: Growth
G: Gearing
Y: Yield (Dividend)
-
-
POLITEMARKET'S COMMENT:
PE ratio 7.4x (Mar 2010 EPS RM0.129) and 5.2x (Mar 2011 EPS RM0.185)
The Growth is 45% per year, Apr 2010 to Apr 2013 (EPS RM0.383)
Gearing- 27.1%
Dividend yield- Gross 3.2%
-
Figure got from RHB web.
HuaYang fair value is RM1.16 by RHB
-
The stock is cheap sale at PE is 5.2x. Growing at 45% per year.
In March 2013, the PE is just 2.5X.
Although the got a bit of gearing and dividend just normal,
but the PE and growth is just too good.
NTA per share, net tangible asset per share is RM1.90
-
RHB said HuaYang is a mid-end developer and small cap developer,
exposure in Perak, JB and more recently in Klang Valley.
Providing quality affordable homes, with a price RM90k-RM400k,
mainly targeting at first time home buyers,
-
Government said 100% loan for property <RM200k, Hua Yang will benefit.
Government said only 70% loan for third house, Hua Yang target first time buyers.

-
I see this stock is cheap, although RHB fair value is just RM1.16.
The risk in this stock is very small company.
*108 million total issued shares X RM0.955 is only RM103 million
*Very illiquid.
*Lack of research coverage. Anything happen to this counters also we don't know. RHB report is just one off. Whether the forecast is true or not also not sure.
In end of 2002, Hua Yang IPO is RM1.75 (RM1.45 ex-bonus) and the fair value by RHB was RM2.21 (RM1.84).
If you hold for 8 years, now at a BIG LOSS ! ! ! !

-
Up to individual to make decision.

PChem Target Price Fair Value RM6.70

What is Petronas Chemical Target Price Fair Value?
PChem Target Price Fair Value RM5.70 by Affin
Petronas Chemical Target Price Fair Value RM5.51 by OSK
PetroChem Target Price Fair Value RM5.70 by JF Apex
How much is Petronas Chemical worth?
PetChem is worth RM6.64 to RM6.70, The Star quoting Maybank.
What is Petronas Chemical PChem target listing price or estimated listing price on the first day listing?
According to The Star, about RM5.50 to RM5.70.
What do you think?
-

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market

52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market

Starting first week of year 2011, I will post a series of articles, called 52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market.

Normally people will buy a stock and try to sell it at higher price to make profit.
Rather than the conventional or traditional way of just buying and selling, my articles will be on non-conventional ways. Even though all the methods still need to buy a stock, but they are very different from our normal buying.

I will be focusing in Bursa Malaysia, but most (with the exception of a few methods) of the 52 methods of how to make money in stock market can also be applied in other stock exchanges.

Those with experience in the stock market, they already know most of the methods. However, these methods are useful knowledge or reference for those who are new in the stock market.

Human do make mistake and I may make mistake in these articles. I want to clarify that I am NOT an expert and I am NOT giving any advice or recommendation. All the 52 Ways of how to make profit in the stock market are my own personal opinion or knowledge and I am just sharing my experiences. You will have to seek your remisier / dealer or financial consultant for any advice.

You may post any question if you need further clarification on any of the methods. You are welcome to share your own opinion or knowledge so that other readers may benefit.

Remember to bookmark me and visit me again in early 2011.

Wishing all of you make more money in the stock market.

Monday, November 22, 2010

Careplus IPO - is this special IPO?

Everyone that I meet, talked to me about Petronas Chemical. OK, this I understand. But one thing I don't understand, why so many friends asked me about Careplus??
No friend ask me about GWPlast.
No friend ask me about SCC IPO.
No friend ask me about EA, Overseas, Cypark IPO, China Ouhua.
But WHY so many friends asked me about Careplus?????

I think this is the answer.
Everyone has FORGOTTEN about IPO
Most people didn't apply IPO for long time (maybe after Maxis).
Now because of Petronas Chemical, many people remember about IPO
That is why they ask about Careplus.

I don't have any info from reasearch on Careplus IPO.
I really have no answer what is so special about Careplus.
Got people want to goreng Careplus?

Malaysia Housing Loan Interest Rate - Looking for Best Housing Loan Interest Rate

The followings are compilation of Housing Loan Interest rate from some of the banks in Malaysia. The information is in October and early November 2010.
-
One of my friend just bought a house and he went to most of the banks to ask for the cheapest housing loan interest rate. The information may be outdated and human may make mistakes, so better check with banks for the current rate and features. Sales person may fight better rate for you.

Most are flexi loan, meaning you can always pay extra and make withdrawal for the excess amount via ATM, Online or cheque book.

This is just for reference only.
-
POLITEMARKET's Comment:
Most banks will quote you an attractive rate but say will try to fight for you. Do not rely on that.
-
What you should do.
1)Call almost all the banks.
2)Select at least 5 banks or more that give you the best rate
3)Submit your application to these 5 banks or more
4)Wait for the letter of offer out with blank and white (proof)
5)Sign with the bank with best rate and terms

_
Is it worth the effort to call so many banks and submit?
An agent was laughing at this suggestion.
Up to you to decide.
-
Assuming you did not find out the rate, and you took up BLR minus 2.2%
(most banks offer minus 2.2%)
Standard Chartered Bank offer minus 2.35% - 2.4%, average 2.375%
You lose out 0.175%.
-
If your loan amount is RM250,000
The first 10 years normally still own the bank RM200,000
If you can get 0.175% cheaper, assuming an average of RM200,000
One year you can save RM350
Ten years RM3500. Twenty years RM7000.
Worse if you took up an offer that just minus 1.8%
That is 0.575% difference.
10 years lose out RM11,500
-
What if you are very rich and you refuse to call so many banks
You are so rich and your loan amount is RM2.5million
You may save 0.175%, or RM35,000 (10Years) to RM70,000 (20yrs)
So rich? You can ask your secretary or assistant to call.
Up to you to decide whether you want make effort to save money
-

---------
OCBC Bank minus 2.2
Flexi Loan- not so flexi, withdrawal need 3 days notice
-
UOB Bank minus 2.2%
-
CIMB Bank minus 1.9%
Depending on loan size, the higher the loan size, the better deal you
can get.
-
Hong Leong Bank BLR minus 2.2%
-
Standard Chartered Bank November 2010 Promotion BLR minus 2.35% (first 5
years), minus 2.4% subsequent years
-
Affin Bank BLR minus 2.3%
Need 48 hours notice for withdrawal
-
AmBank minus 1.8%
Existing AmBank customers and bigger loan amount can enjoy better rate
-
Eon Bank minus 2.2%
No RM200 start up fee
-
BSN Bank Simpanan Nasional BLR minus 2.2%
It is not flexi loan, cannot withdraw
But got free trip for two
-
RHB Bank BLR minus 2.2%
Can try 2.3% if big boss approve
-
Ctitibank BLR minus 2.1%
Minus 2.3% if big boss approve
-
Public Bank BLR minus 2.2%
-
HSBC BLR minus 2.1%/2.2%

________________________________
What is current BRL? it is 6.30%

----------------

Friday, November 19, 2010

CI Holdings Target Price Fair Value RM4.90 - BUY?

CI Holdings Research Analysis Report.
CIHLDG Fair Value Target Price.
PEGGY Method Blog stock share news C.I. Holdings Bhd
CI Holdings share price RM3.64
RHB just started research coverage on CIHLDG. CI Holdings own Permanis and Doe Industries, involves in manufacturing and trading of beverages as well as tap ware and ceramic sanitary tap ware. Renewable EBA (Exclusive Bottling Agreement) with PepsiCo to manufacture, distribute and sell soft drinks under the Pepsi brand- RHB

Let us do my PEGGY method test:

PE: PE Ratio
G: Growth
G: Gearing
Y: Yield (dividend)


PE: P/E ratio 13.7x Jun 2010 (EPS RM0.268). Not low, not good.
G: Growth 19% per year. July 2010 - Jun 2013 (EPS RM0.453). Good
G: Gearing 0.3x, net cash in 2012. OK
Y: Yield (Dividend). Gross 3.5%. Normal.


Figure got from RHB
CI Holdings Target Price Fair Value RM4.90 by RHB
Value CIH at RM4.90 based on a target of 13x CY11 PER.

POLITEMARKET'S COMMENT:
PE ratio is not low, at 13.7x, but because of high growth, the PE ratio will then drop to 8.1x in Jun 2013. Good. Gearing and dividend is ok, normal.

You seldom find established consumer stocks with good PEGGY figure. Nestle and F&N are trading above 17X of PE ratio.
I like consumer stocks because good time bad time also they probably can still make profit.

But question question question..
In early 2009 the price is RM0.90
In early 2010 the price is RM1.67

Now that the price has double from early 2010. Four times from early 2009.
If reach target price of RM4.90, it will be 3 times of RM1.67, and more than 5.4 times of RM0.90.

If you talk about fundamental, we should NOT look at historical prices.
If it is good NOW, means it is GOOD now, BUY now. End of story.

But I afraid after we went in, then the result below forecast, the stock price crash hard.

How good if RHB has covered this stock in 2009, or early 2010.

Although CI Holdings is considering potential M&A’s with local food manufacturing companies to increase its revenue base, another concern is WHAT IF Pepsi does not renew the contract (expriry 2020). What is the damage? Minimal or big damage? 80% of the beverage business effected? You know many things can happen?

Conclusion, if you think 1)RHB forecast is achievable, 2)you are not worried about non-renewal of the Pepsi agreement and 3)you don't care about the historical price, then this stock can be considered.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Petronas Chemical TOO LATE

I read that OSK said Petronas Chemical PChem Target Price fair value is RM5.51, and the recommendation is SUBSCRIBE or BUY. The report came out on 15 November 2010.
Hello, hello, the closing date is already over. Subscribe what? Some already taken back their unsuccessful refund money.

I find the word subscribe a bit funny. When is Petronas Chemical IPO closing date? 9 November 2010. Maybe someone can clarify why they use the word subscribe. Is it a outdated report that just published?

Petronas Chemical Target Price Fair Value RM5.70

Petronas Chemical Research Analysis Report.
Petronas Chemical Target Price Fair Value.
PEGGY Method Blog stock share news Petronas Chemical Group Bhd
Petronas Chemical IPO price RM5.04. Petronas Chemical share price pending listing.

Let us do my PEGGY method test:

PE: PE Ratio
G: Growth
G: Gearing
Y: Yield (dividend)


PE: P/E ratio 18.37x March 2010 (EPS RM0.275). High, Not good.
G: Growth 28.3% per year. April 2010 - March 2011 (EPS RM0.353). OK
G: Gearing 0.1x. OK
Y: Yield (Dividend). Gross 2.73%. Normal. (assuming 50% payout ratio)


Figure got from JF Apex
Petronas Chemical Target Price Fair Value RM5.70 by JF Apex
The value of RM5.70 was derived based on the comparable P/E (price earning) ratio of similar group in the industry of 16.2 times and FY2011 EPS of 35.3.

POLITEMARKET'S COMMENT:
PE ratio is high at 18.37x. Although the growth of 28.3% is good, but end of March 2011, the PE is still at 14.3x. However, big company like this always trade at higher PE and higher price.
Gearing is ok.
Dividend is normal. One thing good is Petronas Chemical dividend payout ratio is 50%.
Meaning Petronas Chemical plan to pay 50% of profit as dividend. So, no need to guess the dividend.


In the Petronas Chemical research report, it talks about:
-Stability and support by Petronas Group
-Major consolidation – 22 petrochemicals-related companies
-Improving margins
-Established and extensive marketing and distribution market will enhance its market visibility, coordination and revenue growth.
-Utilise IPO proceed for expansion of business and synergistic growth acquisition.

Actually more important is the forecast growth or earnings (EPS) for 2012 and 2013? This important info is not available.


Although the PE is high, but this is the normal case for big company. If Petronas Chemical still can grow more than 10% per year for 2012 and 2013, then this stock can be considered. Hopefully the share price will also grow more than 10% per year plus receiving the dividend. But if they can't grow, then what you get is just the dividend which is not high.

Anyway, I think the first day the stock will be higher than RM5.04, that makes Petronas Chemical less attractive.

Should we buy, sell, or hold Petronas Chemical? Depend on what is Petronas Chemical share price after listing. The price performance of Malaysia Marine & Heavy Engineering was unexpected. It went beyond most (if not all) analsysts' target price. What do you think of Petronas Chemical?

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

CAREPLUS IPO RM0.23

Opening date: 16 November 2010
IPO closing date: 24 Novemeber 2010
Tentative listing date 6 December 2010

Public Issue 65.05 million shares
Private Placement 38.9 million
Offer for Sale: Nil
Issuing House MIH 504
Ace Market

Careplus target price fair value will be effected by exchange rate and the price performance of other glove companies.

Careplus Group Bhd IPO target revenue to double by 2013 from the RM41.86 million for the financial year ended Jan 31, 2010. This is due to the an expansion programme to double the current production capacity.

Chairman and non-executive director is Peter Yew Nieng Choon
CEO and executive director is Lim Kwee Shyan.


__________________________
The Star
GLOVE manufacturer Careplus Group Bhd, which is en route to a listing on Bursa Malaysia's ACE market before year-end, hopes to raise about RM15mil from its public issue to expand its production capacity due to growing demand from its existing customers.


The company, which hopes to release its prospectus next week, looks to its initial public offering (IPO) as a means of catapulting it to its next growth phase over a duration of three to five years. Careplus, which has a paid-up capital of RM14.5mil, will look at a public spread of 25% and will not have an offer for sale.

"The existing shareholders are committed to the business and the hope is to increase the company's value to shareholders over time," its chairman and non-executive director Peter Yew Nieng Choon told StarBizweek in an interview on Wednesday.

The company is a manufacturer and exporter of medical and non-medical gloves, cleanroom gloves, household gloves and surgeons' gloves. Its export markets cover some 20 countries including the US, Europe, Asia, Middle East, Africa, Australia and South America.

"Japan and Hong Kong are our main markets, accounting for 20% of the company's revenue. These markets will continue to be strong markets so long as there are willing buyers. Our customers comprise importers and distributors, whose businesses are in healthcare products," said Careplus group chief executive officer and executive director Lim Kwee Shyan.

Careplus registered a net profit of RM6.2mil against revenue of RM42mil for the financial year ended January 31 2010.

Lim said the company should see similar growth as seen in the industry.

"The growth rate in terms of (glove) usage is 8%-10%. Revenue increases largely depend on the prices of (raw) material," he said.

When asked on the impact of the weakening US dollar, Lim said that margins could see a potential short term squeeze.

"So long as the currency appreciates or depreciates in a consistent manner, we will be able to work with our customers to pass on the cost," he said.

Careplus owns a manufacturing plant that produces powdered and powder-free latex exam gloves as well as cleanroom latex and nitrile gloves. Its manufacturing plant has six production lines with a maximum production capacity of 420 million pieces per annum.

"We are running at 95% capacity currently and need to expand our lines to cater for growing demand," said Lim.

Under its expansion plans, Careplus seeks to double up its production capacity over the next two years.

As the company ramps up its production capacity, it will be able to increase sales to existing export markets and look to expand its footprint in markets that have not been tapped.

"The current capacity restriction is holding us back from growing our sales further," said Lim.

While Lim was unable to share expansion details prior to the prospectus launch, he said a new line costing RM2.5mil will be able to produce 108 million pieces per annum.

Should the company add another five lines, it can easily achieve a production capacity of 540 million pieces per annum at an investment cost of close to RM13mil.

It is understood that the bulk of the IPO proceeds will go towards funding the company's expansion, after deducting listing expenses.

"It typically takes about three to nine months to put in new lines and get them up and running. But if you are looking to build a factory with new lines, that will take 18-24 months," said Lim.

Careplus has acquired a new parcel of land spanning six acres for RM3.6mil and has commenced construction. The new land is within close proximity of its existing manufacturing facility in Senawang. The cost for the existing facility, including the land and machinery, was estimated between RM12mil and RM15mil.

Careplus Group comprises Perusahaan Pelindung Getah (M) Sdn Bhd, Careplus (M) Sdn Bhd, and Masterclean Technologies Sdn Bhd.

Yew initially formed Perusahaan Pelindung with his wife in 1988. Both Yew and Lim formed Careplus (M) Sdn Bhd to trade in gloves in 1991 and ten years later, Careplus (M) made Perusahaan Pelindung its wholly-owned unit.

In 2002, Careplus (M) acquired Masterclean Technologies, a company involved in processing and exporting cleanroom gloves for the semiconductor industry to grow the company's product range.

Source: The Star

Genting Singapore Junket in early 2011

Before I proceed with when is Genting Singapore junket start, in case you don't know, let me explain what is junket. Junket got few meanings, but here is casino junkets. According to Wikipedia, a casino junket is where gamblers are flown to an area where legalized gambling is available and booked into a hotel-casino, both at the junket company's expense, in exchange for a cut of the gamblers' turnover from the casino.

I read from a news that Genting Singapore junket will start in early 2011. Many people said there is no more growth in Genting Singapore. Actually Genting Singapore just started full operations in about a year. I think there is still growth potential in Genting Singapore. Genting Singapore casino junkets will start in early 2011. Meaning there will be tour agency or any company, fly their customers to Genting Singapore casino. Genting Singapore will then share the gambling profit with them. This is a win win situation. The company make money and Genting Singapore got more business.

Now, we know Genting Singapore will grow. But we also need to know whether Genting Singapore worth to buy, not just the word GROW.

Anyway, no need to dispute on Genting Singapore profit forecast or Genting Singapore 4th Quarter profit result forcast. I saw many research got so many different figure.

It is very interesting to know what is the Genting Singapore share price after one year.

Those who said that Genting Singapore will reach S$10.00 or is going to be bigger than 3 Singapore banks combined, I think not so soon. Some said will never happen.

Monday, November 15, 2010

CNOUHUA Why Up?

CNOUHUA is the only few IPO counters that go up substantially after listed. Now is RM0.895
It is the only China stock that perform so well.
I have no news on why CNOUHUA up. It has shoot past RHB Cnouhua target price fair value of RM0.69.
When it was RM0.67 (T+3 after listed), I was discussing with a friend on Cnouhua. We made a conclusion that on T+4 there will be some forceselling pressure since the first day volume is so high. We were guessing that for those who want to buy, then may get lower than RM0.67 on T+4. But on T+4, it didn't wait for anybody, it up up up.

Actually I don't know when to enter and I don't know technical analysis. I also don't know how to interpret the market. That is why after so many years, I didn't make money from stock market,

But all these have been overcome, with the help of Dollar Cost Averaging method. In the long run, Dollar Cost Averaging will get better than market average price, and no need to time or guess the market.

Link:   More on China Ouhua

Link:   Dollar Cost Averaging

Football- How to dive and cheat?

video

Petronas Chemical IPO Balloting Table

Petronas Chemical IPO Allocation table or basis of allotment for both Public and Bumiputra.


http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/edmsweb.nsf/ba387758ae37412b482568a300466fb6/9073afbb85b59264482577d900401352/$FILE/PRESS%20RELEASE.pdf

Saturday, November 13, 2010

Petronas Chemical Oversubscribed 5.4 times

Petronas Chemical IPO Oversubscribed 5.4 times
The book building exercise has finished and have the strike price. The institutional Price has been fixed at RM5.20. Therefore the Petronas Chemical Final Retail Price is fixed RM5.04, being 3% discount. Please wait for your refund of RM0.01.

Petronas Chemical Oversubscribed 5.4 times for the public subscription.
What are your chances? If you applied 1000 shares the chances are 11.3% and gradually increase about 2% in each range of number of shares applied. If you applied 6000 to 10900, then chances are 20.01% and will get 6000 if successful. If you applied more than 1 million shares, you are 100% successful, but you only get 80,000 shares.

Friday, November 12, 2010

Genting Singapore Target Price Fair Value $2.45

Genting Singapore Third Quarter Profit S$187.8million.
Genting Singapore Second Quarter Net Profit S$396.5million
Bad Result?

Genting Singapore Analysis Research Report.
Genting Singapore Target Price Fair Value S$2.45 provided by RHB.

PEGGY Method Blog stock share news of Genting Singapore Ltd

Genting Singapore share price S$2.28

Let us do my PEGGY method test:
PE: PE Ratio
G: Growth
G: Gearing
Y: Yield (dividend)

PE: P/E ratio 28.2x Dec 2010 (EPS S$0.081). High

G: Growth 19% per year. Jan 2011 - Dec 2012 (EPS S$0.115). Good
G: Gearing 29%, net cash 2012. OK

Y: Yield (Dividend). Zero. Bad.


Figure got from RHB web.


POLITEMARKET'S COMMENT:
Genting Singapore forecast always changed by analysts. And many analysts have different forecast.
This is just as at now, provided by RHB. You may see different figure previously or from different research.

PE ratio is high. Even with the high growth rate 19% per year, the PE is still at 19.7x in Dec 2012.
That means if Genting Singapore share price is THE SAME, the PE ratio is still 19.7x in Dec 2012.
We buy shares hoping that the share price will increase right? If Genting Singapore share price increase, then the PE even be higher.
So, if Genting Singapore CANNOT have high growth AFTER 2012, then the share now is expensive. You must remember that there is NO Dividend.


I have only one question to ask?
What is the growth rate per year after Dec 2012?
If no growth or low growth. Then can forget about Genting Singapore now.
If still can have high growth, then can be considered.

According to RHB, the poor result is due to (1) poorer VIP luck factor; (2) impact of the Aug “ghost” month on revenue; and (3) some one-off expenses for the commencement of its theatre show.

Felda Holdings Bhd IPO

Now that the Petronas Chemical IPO has closed, the Malaysia Marine & Heavy Engineering Holdings Bhd IPO has listed, what is the next government linked IPO?

The following may be the governemnt linked IPO:

Felda Holdings Bhd IPO
Composite Technology Research Malaysia IPO
Percetakan Nasional Bhd IPO

Same as PetChem fair value and MHB fair value, the coming Felda Holdings Fair Value, CTRM Fair value and PMB fair value may be used to determine the price range in the book building exercise (if they have book building exercise). Let us wait and see. Government need money or liberalisation?

Berjaya Food or BFood IPO also may be interesting although it is not a government linked.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Paramon sold at small profit

If you read my previous post on my techinical analysis on Paramon, I bought it at RM5.00 and contra at RM5.17 on T+4 on 10 November 2010. The profit is super super small, just 3.4% excluding brokerage. I don't play contra but this is just purely for fun trading trying out technical analysis. Trying for fun with small amount.

Hahahaha.. please don't laugh at my technical analysis. I still got a lot to learn.

TSH will break RM3.20 ?

Replying a question from a visitor, will TSH share price can jet up to RM3.20??

Just my opinion.....

TSH price up from RM2.10 to current RM2.77, more than 30% in about one month. Probably may have resistance to move up further. It may also face strong resistance at RM3.00. Unless something very good happen, in near term, it may not touch RM3.20.

But.. .. . .. by looking at medium term about a year later, this may be possible. TSH has been keep planting and Philip Capital forecast that the company will grow more than 20% a year as more and more young trees start to be harvested. With forecast 2011 earnings of RM0.367 and a PE of 9 times, the stock may be trading at RM3.30, although I feel Philip forecast is a bit too positive.

For longer term, as they keep planting their unplanted land, and more and more young trees start to be harvested, the company will continue to grow. We will be looking at beyond RM3.30.

What is the risk?
1.My concern is their subsidiary Ekowood International Berhad losses. It has great impact on TSH profit. Furthermore, with the drop in US Dollar value, the export of Ekowood product may not be good.

2.Another concern is the planting schedule. S&P are very disappointed with TSH planting program. They said TSH planting program got hiccup and waited for so long, but the new young trees have NOT started harvesting.

3.Cash Flow and Gearing. TSH gearing is quite high. If anything bad happen, they may not have the cash flow to turn around. However, informally I have checked with those who are familiar with TSH, they said the cash flow should not be a problem.

4.The above issues can be overcome if TSH can manage it well. But there is one thing that TSH cannot control. That is the Palm Oil price. If Palm Oil price drop sunstatially, it will have a great impact on the profit and nothing much TSH can do. That is why Warren Buffet doesn't like commodities company.


Conclusion
My conclusion is whether TSH price can reach RM3.20, I think in near term will be a bit difficult, maybe around RM3.00. But in stock market, if during good market, who cares about earnings? It may hit RM3.50 next week who knows?

However, for long term, this stock should worth considering due to growth, assuming no big bad thing happen such as substantial drop in Palm Oil price. Although the previous planting program is disappointed, but now we are actually nearer and nearer to the harvesting of the young trees.

If you want to wait and see, you can look at their Palm Oil production figure every month. Currently is about 15,000. Previous peak is about 20,000. If you see the figure exceed 20,000, then it may be a sign that the young trees already harvested.


On question on Kwantas.. .
KWANTAS has a similar story that they also keep planting their unplanted land. But according to a research, they may have cash flow problem. So, I am not looking at Kwantas at the moment. BUT will continue to look into Kwantas quarterly result and research report to see whether things have been improved.

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Why MasterSkill share down?

Why MEGB share price down? Masterskill Education Group Bhd (MEGB) share price has fallen so much that it is now well below its IPO price of RM3.50.


The link below may have some details.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/highlights/176776-masterskill-plunges-on-ptptn-woes.html

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?sec=business&file=/2010/10/4/business/7154814

Monday, November 8, 2010

CNOUHUA can keep? CNOUHUA Target Price RM0.69

China Ouhua Winery Analysis Research Report.
China Ouhua Winery Target Price Fair Value.
PEGGY Method Blog stock share news China Ouhua Winery Holdings Ltd
CNOUHUA share price RM0.645. CNOUHUA IPO price RM0.60

Let us do my PEGGY method test:
PE: PE Ratio
G: Growth
G: Gearing
Y: Yield (dividend)


PE: P/E ratio 6.5x Dec 2010 (EPS RM0.10). Ok, low.
G: Growth 13.4% per year. Jan 2011 - Dec 2012 (EPS RM0.129). OK
G: Gearing net cash
Y: Yield (Dividend). Gross 5.45%.


Figure got from RHB web.
CNOUHUA target price fair value is RM0.69 by RHB


POLITEMARKET'S COMMENT:
PE ratio low with decent growth. Net cash and dividend yield of 5.45%.
Good. This stock with definitely go up if RHB forecast is accurate.
But . . . . .
This is a China stocks. China stocks are not so successful in Malaysia
in terms of demand and share price performance.


Will CHOUHUA be different?
Maybe yes:
1) This is not a shoe company, this is wine company
2) Chief Executive officer Wang Chao said to reward investors, the
company plans to distribute dividend of at least 35% in 2010. This will
give confidence about the company profit and cash position.
3) a foreign insurance company in Malaysia has taken up a substantial
interest in the company.


If you think the company can grow and will continue to pay good
dividend, then this is a good stock. Recently I read a news that the
wine consumption in China will grow strongly. But whether CHOUHUA will
be able to grow their profit, and whether this stock can buy or same as
other China shoe company, please make your own decision.

For info, four Chinese companies are listed in Bursa Malaysia; they are
Xingquan International Sports Holdings Ltd, Multi Sports Holdings Ltd
and XiDeLang Holdings Ltd and K-Star Sports Ltd.

Klang Bak Kut Teh Bhd- Analysis Research Fair Value

Klang Bak Kut Teh Bhd- Analysis Research Fair Value

I notice many people selling Bak Kut Teh in Klang are already millionaire. Drive big cars with big houses.

Let us do my PEGGY Method on Buk Kut Teh

PE: PE ratio is not applicable because not selling/buying the shop
G: Growth is Low
G: Gearing is nil
Y: Yield (dividend yield is very high)

POLITEMARKET's Comments:
Why I say growth is low. When business started, the growth is high. But because Buk Kut Teh is only one shop, there is no opportunity to grow. Some try to open more shops but many fail (because branches are not as tasty, and you need trusted people to be in charge of the cash).

Kopitiam/Starbucks is different, people eat because of atmosphere, not because of taste. They have a system to run the business, so from one Kopitiam / Starbucks shop to two, to four to twenty.

Buk Kut Teh got no gearing, all cash settled. So business are there for many years with low risk.

Dividend superb high. Because no need money to grow, all profit pay as dividend.

Conclusion:
If you own a Buk Kut Teh shop, no gearing and you get very high dividend, after years, you make a lot of money / cash. But because of slow or no growth, the monthly income is almost the same every month. But
if you are able to grow your Buk Kut Teh shop, from one to 10 or 20, then your monthly income will grow.

So, as PEGGY Method has shown, If you are satisfied with just the dividend, then you can open a Buk Kut Teh shop, you still can be rich, but not very very rich. But if you want to grow and grow, better invest
in a food business that can grow or open more Bak Kut Teh shop.

My good friend have opened few outlets for his food business. Yes!! Good business for him, because his business is growing. Congratulations!!

Friday, November 5, 2010

Petronas Chemical PetChem target price fair value RM5.05

Extracted from The Star
Monday October 18, 2010
PETALING JAYA:  .......................Although an IPO price has yet to be set as Petronas Chemicals will soon begin an investor roadshow and look to secure cornerstone investors, an indicative price of RM5.20 for institutional investors is being circulated, based on price/earnings (P/E) multiple of 16 times for financial year ending March 31, 2012 (FY12).
Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd research head Yeonzon Yeow said the indicative price was on the higher side and Kenanga’s fair value for Petronas Chemicals is RM5.05 per share, based on P/E multiple of 15.8 times. Earnings per share is estimated at 32 sen for FY12..............

--------
POLITEMARKET's Comment:
Although Kenanga said Petronas Chemicals fair value is just RM5.05, they can always change their mind and change PetChem fair value once they have assessed the public sentiment and gather more information on the company. There was once a broker valued Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering fair value at ONLY RM3.30, then few weeks later change it to RM4.00.

It is better that we gather more information from different sources. If anyone have any PetChem fair value target price, hope can share with us.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

List of Stocks- Share Price Not Move Up yet

Interested to buy GOOD stocks that the share prices have not moved up?
Market has gone up for the past twelve months, you want to buy but you afraid market will soon come down. Someone suggested to buy counters that the share prices have not moved up.
-
So, I try to help my visitors/ readers by listing shares that the share prices have not increased much for the past twelve month. But I don't have tools or database, but I found one report by RHB which is quite useful.
-
For me I always look at fundamental, so I will ONLY list down those recommended buy by RHB.
-
The report is dated 29 October 2010. You will have to be careful of the prices because may have changed. Eg Sunrise recently has gone up a lot. Also, although I tried not to make any error or mistake, but I am still human. Please verify the data yourself.
-


-
List of Companies with Share Prices Increased LESS THAN 20% for the past twelve months AND with outperform recommendation by RHB as at 29 October 2010:

-
HLBank +14.9%
PBBank +20.2% (for PBBank Shareholder info)
RCE -2.3%
Hiaptek -5.7%
Perwaja -22%
YTL Cement +12%
Fajarbaru -2.9%
Gamuda +16.4%
Parkson +13.8%
Allianz -14.4%
MCIL (Media Chinese International Limited) -40.5%
Petronas Gas +15.7%
CBIP +10.5%
IOICorp +9.7%
Axis REIT +16.8%
IJMLand +13.9%
Quill Capital (REITS) -1.9%
Suncity REIT +11.3%
Sunrise -3.5%
JCY -30.1%
Digi +18.6%
Maxis +5.8%
Evergreen +19.4%
WTK +6.9%
ILB +6.7%


-
Please don't buy shares just based on share price.
Please also check out the target price fair value, growth, PE ratio,
dividend, gearing, etc.


-

 

Paramon- BUY? Bullish Breakout Started

Referring to my earlier article on Paramon, now that Paramon share price have stay above RM5.00 (all time high for at least 10 years), it has started a bullish breakout. Am I right? I am not good at chart analysis.
Now what is paramon target price? I don't know.
I have studied technical analysis, but maybe I am not that smart, I still don't know how to use it.
I hope I am right in spotting the bullish breakout.
Fun.
-

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Paramon Bullish Breakout Soon?

Paramon (RM5.00) is sitting at all time high of RM5.00
(highest of RM5.00 in at least 10 years).
If can break RM5.00 and sustain above RM5.00, I think can have bullish rally.
I am not good at technical analysis, not sure whether this is how to interpret the chart?
In terms of fundamental, Paramon fair value target price is RM5.80,
by RHB with outperform call.

RCE Capital- Can Buy?

Philip Capital recommend BUY on RCE Capital. Many months ago, Philip Capital asked to switch from RCE to MBSB. Both are in similar business. After MBSB share price have performed well recently, they said it is worth to relook at RCECap.
RCE CAPITAL (at RM0.60) using my PEGGY Method.

PE: PE ratio
G: Growth
G: Gearing
Y: Yield (dividend)


PE Ratio
5.9x (EPS Mar 2011 RM0.101). Low, good.

Growth
Philip Capital forecast that the Earnings will growth 21% to RM0.122 for year ending Mar 2012. Good.

Gearing.
The net gearing is 200% and probably not applicable because they borrow money to lend out.

Yield (Dividend)
The yield is just 1.7%. Low.


From the above PEGGY figure, what you get from buying RECCap is very low PE with good growth.
But the dividend is low as the company need cash to grow the company. If the price does not goes up, what you have is the little dividend.

Most of us are worried that the market is too high and may crash soon. So, you may want to consider RCE. Philip Capital said RCE's price have not moved up much and would be a good buy for investors who want to buy shares during this good market but afraid of market correction. RCE's price drop 6.7% year-to-date. Philip Capital are still positive on RCE outlook.
 
I agreed with Philip Capital that now it is safer to buy stocks that are profitable but have not moved up much. But whether to pick RCECap, up to individual's decision. RCE Capital fair value target price is RM1.12 (provided by RHB 29/10/2010)

Information from Philip:
RCE Capital is a non-financial institution that provides personal/consumer loans to government servants. RCE Capital's borrowing cost of 7% allows it to lend at around 10.4% to 14.8% effective rates for its personal financing business.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Petronas Chemicals IPO- strong interest but price cautious

There are huge interests in the domestic book building exercise for Petronas Chemicals IPO. But the investors are very price sensitive.
-
The IPO has been covered six times at the lower end of the RM4.50-RM5.20 indicative range, but only three times at the higher end, two sources told Reuters on 2 Nov 2010. This means the investors are cautious about the company's valuations.
-
Pricing of the IPO is on 12 Nov 2010 and tentative listing date will be on 26 November 2010- Reuters.

Rumours or News - KFC

KFC Share News
Kulim Bhd managing director and KFC Holdings Bhd (KFCH) deputy chairman Ahamad Mohamad yesterday said privatisation of KFC was not on the cards for now. He said it’s a very very remote (possibility of privatisation) but again, you never know.
Source: Bernama 21 October 2010

KBUNAI Stock News.
Proposed Integrated Resort (IR) at Karambunai in Sabah could potentially
include a casino.
Source: Malaysian Insider news 22 September 2010.
-

IJMLand stock news
Privatization. May be privatized.
Source: Malaysia Finance Blog quoting a local broker. 20 September 2010.

-
EASTERN & ORIENTAL BERHAD (E&;O) share news
Are E&O shareholders looking at privatisation?
Source: The Edge 2 August 2010.
E&O would like to clarify that the Company has not received any notice from any of its shareholders pertaining to plans to privatise the Company. The Company is also not aware of any such plans by any of its shareholders.
Source: E&O and Bursa. 2 August 2010.

-

CLOSED CASE:


UEM Group Bhd Stock Share News. Status: CLOSED CASE

The government confirmed that MMC Corporation Bhd has made a bid for the UEM Group Bhd and a decision will be made in due course.
Source: Bernama and Business Times news 4 October 2010.


UEM Group Bhd Stock Share News.
UEM is not aware of any market talk of a buyout of the group by MMC Corporation Bhd. Based on media speculation reports, MMC has made an offer to buy UEM Group for RM15.6 billion. UEM Group's listed entities include Plus Expressways Bhd, Faber Group Bhd, UEM Land Holdings Bhd and Time Engineering Bhd.
Source: Bernama and Business Times news 1 October 2010.


PLUS Expressway Bhd Stock News - STATUS: CLOSED CASE
Khazanah Nasional Bhd and the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) offering a cash offer for the assets and liabilities of PLUS for RM23bil, which works out to RM4.60 per share.
Source: The Star 16/10/2010

A business weekly citing sources reported over the weekend that the EPF had a meeting with Khazanah’s board last week offering to buy up all remaining shares it does not already own between RM4.40 and RM4.60 per share.
Source: The Star 12/10/2010.

A weekly business newspaper reported that Khazanah Nasional Bhd may sell its stake in the company.
Source: Bloomberg 20/09/2010.

Outdated news for info only.

Monday, November 1, 2010

KFC Fair Value RM4.15

AmResearch keeps "BUY" rating on KFC Holdings Bhd.
This is due to the earnings growth potential from KFC India.
They said KFC should trade at higher premium to reflect an expected robust earnings growth of KFC India.
-
KFC Ayamas Venture into Sabah.
On a separate note, KFC Holdings' wholly-owned subsidiary, Ayamas Shoppe Sdn Bhd had entered into a JV agreement with Rastamas Trading Sdn Bhd (Rastamas) to form a new company for the purpose of operating Kedai Ayamas in Sabah. This will give it an opportunity to expand in East Malaysia market where it currently has no outlets. Ayamas would own 65 per cent while the rest would be owned by Rastamas, a Sabah-based company. Rastamas' main business activity is upstream integrated poultry. Its products are marketed and distributed through three retail outlets in Tawau, Sabah. Besides that, Rastamas also supplies chickens to KFC outlets in the state. Borneo Post.

KFC Target Price RM3.85 - Trading Buy

KFC Malaysia Analysis Research Report.
KFC Holdings Target Price Fair Value.
KFC Holdings (M) Bhd (3492) stock share news PEGGY Method Blog
KFC share price RM3.62
-
Let us do my PEGGY method test:
-
PE: P/E ratio 18.8x, Dec 2010 (EPS RM0.193)
G: Growth 16.3% per year. Jan 2011 - Dec 2012 (EPS RM0.261)
G: Gearing -net cash
Y: Yield (Dividend). Gross 1.8%
-
Figure got from RHB- Trading Buy. KFC Fair Value RM3.85
28 Oct 2010
-
POLITEMARKET'S COMMENT:
PE ratio is 18.8x, high
The Growth is 16.3% per year, ok
Gearing- Net cash
Dividend yield- low
-

After the recent price increase, if you buy KFC RM3.62, you are not getting any cheap stock. The PE is high 18.8x. Dividend yield also low.

If you buy, you are depending just on GROWTH.
Can KFC achive about 16.3% forecast growth per year?
Recently I wrote on KFC article that they venturing to India and opens the first halal fast food in India. (refer to my earlier post on KFC). More good news coming?

Two other issues. First, KFC is owned by QSR Ventures (link with Johor Corp) and Lembaga TH. KFC always have Related Party Transaction with Johor Corp group of companies. If the terms are not favorable to KFC, investors may view that KFC is not that independent and may throw out the KFC shares. This ownership structure of KFC will need to be addressed.

Second, I saw from RHB report that recent news/ rumors that KFC may be privatised. They said the privatisation news of KFC may provide support to KFC share price.

The Related Party Transaction and KFC privatisation have no figures, so I can't comment further. By just looking at PEGGY figure, if you really want to buy KFC, buy if you believe they can achieve about 16.3% growth per year.


Posted by PoliteMarket.
For info, I am using PEGGY Method and Dollar Cost Averaging to invest.

PEGGY Method      http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/Peggy%20Method
Dollar Cost Averaging    http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/Dollar%20Cost%20Averaging

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