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Friday, December 31, 2010

What is 80/20 Rule?

Originally, the Pareto Principle referred to the observation that 80% of Italy’s wealth belonged to only 20% of the population.

But many people now use it for different things, such as:
20% of the customers generate 80% of total sales.
20% of remisiers generate 80% of the total brokerage.
20% of the features cause 80% of the usage
20% of the remisiers gave 80% problem to the broker staff
20% of the staff receive 80% of the total salary
20% of the counters contribute 80% of total trading volume or value.
And on and on…

So, you can set your strategy on the above. Meaning maybe you want save time and to focus on the 20% of remisiers or customers. Or maybe your want to break this trend so that the contribution by customers or remisiers can be spread out, not relying on major customers or remisier.

What is Rule 80/20

Originally, the Pareto Principle referred to the observation that 80% of Italy’s wealth belonged to only 20% of the population.

But many people now use it for different things, such as:
20% of the customers generate 80% of total sales.
20% of remisiers generate 80% of the total brokerage.
20% of the features cause 80% of the usage
20% of the remisiers gave 80% problem to the broker staff
20% of the staff receive 80% of the total salary
20% of the counters contribute 80% of total trading volume or value.
And on and on…

So, you can set your strategy on the above. Meaning maybe you want save time and to focus on the 20% of remisiers or customers. Or maybe your want to break this trend so that the contribution by customers or remisiers can be spread out, not relying on major customers or remisier.

Thursday, December 30, 2010

K. Seng Seng Corporation Berhad IPO - KSSC IPO

KSSC IPO. K. Seng Seng IPO Open Date 30 December 2010
KSSCB IPO Closing date 06-01-11.
KSSC share price RM 0.57
Issuing house MIH 505
Main Market
Tentative listing date 18 January 2011
-
PUBLIC ISSUE OF 20,124,000 NEW ORDINARY :-
* 6,000,000 MADE AVAILABLE FOR APPLICATION BY THE MALAYSIAN PUBLIC;
* 5,124,000 FOR ELIGIBLE EMPLOYEES AND PERSONS WHO HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SUCCESS OF COMPANY.
9,000,000 BY WAY OF PRIVATE PLACEMENT TO BUMIPUTERA INVESTORS APPROVED BY MINISTRY OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INDUSTRY; AND
OFFER FOR SALE OF 22,200,000 ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.50 EACH IN K. BERHAD TO
IDENTIFIED INVESTORS
-
From K. Seng Seng Corporation Berhad.....
Our Company was incorporated in Malaysia under the Act on 15 January 1985 as a private limited company under the name of Vinylon Industries Sdn Bhd. On 20 June 1986, we changed our name to K. Seng Seng Sdn Bhd and on 16 June 1999, we changed our name to K. Seng Seng Corporation Sdn Bhd. We were subsequently converted into a public company on 15 July 2009.
-
We are an investment holding company. Our Group is principally involved in the following core activities:-
-
manufacturing of secondary stainless steel products namely welded stainless steel tubes and pipes, stainless steel industrial fasteners, rigging accessories and components;
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processing of secondary stainless steel flat and long products namely stainless steel sheets, stainless steel round bars, stainless steel flats bars as well as stainless steel angles bars; and
-
trading of industrial hardware including marine hardware and consumables.
-
K. Seng Seng Corporation Berhad Directors
Name Occupation Nationality
Koh Seng Kar @ Koh Hai Sew Chairman and Managing Director Malaysian
Koh Seng Lee Deputy Managing Director Malaysian
Tsen Ket Shung @ Kon Shung Executive Director Malaysian
Zainal Rashid Bin Haji Mohd Eusoff Independent Non-Executive Director Malaysian
Yap Siok Teng Independent Non-Executive Director Malaysian
Lim Ho Kin Independent Non-Executive Director Malaysian

-

Tambun Indah Land Berhad IPO

Tambun Indah Land IPO
Tambun share price issue RM 0.70
Tambun IPO Opening date 29-12-10
Tambun Indah Land IPO 06-01-11
Public Issue 22,100,000
Offer for sale 22,100,000
Private placement 9,900,000
Issuing house MIDF 636
Tentative Listing date Main Market 18-01-11
-
-
Business Times 16 November 2010
PENANG-BASED Tambun Indah Land Bhd plans to grow by focusing on mainland
projects where property prices are much lower than those on Penang
island.
-
The property developer plans to raise some RM22.4 million from an
initial public offering (IPO) to repay loans and fund existing projects.
Its shares will be listed on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia.
Managing director Teh Kiak Seng said there is ample land for bigger
developments on the mainland.
"The younger generation are moving from the island to the mainland as
properties there cost 10 times more. So we have great potential to
grow," he said yesterday in Kuala Lumpur, after signing an underwriting
agreement with MIMB Investment Bank Bhd.
-
Set up in 1995, Tambun Indah has plans for seven property projects worth
RM1.1 billion over the next six years.
-
The projects include 2,532 units of bungalows, semi-detached homes,
terrace houses, condominiums, apartments and shop-offices.
Under its IPO, Tambun Indah is making a public issue of 32 million new
shares of 50 sen each. This comprises 11.05 million shares for the
Malaysian public, 11.05 million shares for directors, employees and
business associates, and 9.9 million shares for identified investors via
private placement.
-
At an issue price of 70 sen a share, its IPO will raise RM22.4 million.
So far, the company has sold over 2,800 units of residential properties,
worth more than RM800 million.
Its ongoing projects include Juru Heights, Seri Palma, Carrisa Park and
Pearl Garden.
-

-
The Star 16 November 2010
Tambun Indah seeks to raise RM22mil from IPO
KUALA LUMPUR: Penang-based property developer Tambun Indah Land Bhd
(TILB) seeks to raise RM22.4mil from its upcoming initial public
offering (IPO) to boost its war chest, managing director Teh Kiak Seng
said.
Promoters of the IPO said the exercise would enable the developer to tap
the capital market for funding future expansion. Teh, however, played
down the likelihood of the company expanding into the Klang Valley.
-
The IPO involved the sale of 54.1 million shares in TILB at an offer
price of 70 sen a share. Of the 22.4mil proceeds, RM12.7 will be used
for working capital.
"The property market in Penang is doing so well and that is why you see
a lot of the big players from the Klang Valley going into Penang," he
said after the signing ceremony with the IPO's underwriter, MIMB
Investment Bank Bhd yesterday.
-
While land scarcity and a recent surge of demand had driven up prices on
the island itself, Teh said the market on the mainland had yet to
significantly improve.
"There may be talk of a property bubble forming in Hong Kong and
Singapore, but I can assure you it is not the case in Penang," he said.
Teh said the second bridge to Penang would improve connectivity to the
island, and while construction work on the new bridge was still
on-going, demand for properties on the mainland side was on the rise.
-
He noted that the average price of a double-storey landed residential
unit on the island had moved closer to RM1mil, but the same house could
be bought on the mainland for less than RM300,000.
TILB has some 85.8ha of land bank, mostly located in the southern part
of Seberang Prai. It also has the option to acquire another 40.5ha in
this area.
"Our strategy has always been to maintain optimal landbank size that
allows quick turnaround," Teh said.
Established in 1994, the company has sold some 2,800 homes estimated to
worth RM800mil. Its current landbank, to be developed over the next five
years, has a gross development value of RM1bil.
-
"We have built a secure financial foundation by keeping a lean balance
sheet, which has enabled us to complete our projects quickly.
Furthermore, our strong cash position provides sufficient funds for us
to acquire additional land bank as and when opportunities arise," Teh
said.
--

Business Times 30 December 2010
Tambun Indah Land Bhd, a leading property developer in Penang, is
planning to acquire 3.2 hectares of land next year.
Managing Director Ir Teh Kiak Seng said the group had identified 1.6
hectares on the mainland and another 1.6 hectares on Penang island with
a gross development value (GDV) of approximately RM36 million and RM170
million, respectively.
-
According to an independent market researcher, the residential property
market in Penang was valued at RM3.7 billion last year, and the mainland
accounted for approximately 30 per cent of Penang's residential property
market.
"Mainland Penang (Seberang Perai) is one of the fastest growing district
in Penang due largely to a growing working class population as a result
of rapid industrialisation," he said during the launch of the group's
initial public offering (IPO) here today.
-
Tambun Indah is scheduled for a main-market listing on January 18.

"We are still eyeing for landbank in the Klang Valley like in Shah Alam
and Kajang but are cautious about the cost, therefore, we have not
finalised anything yet.
"As we all know, Klang Valley is a good market to do housing, but we
want to build our name by building quality homes at an affordable price.
"We, however have no plans to expand overseas at the moment," Teh added.
Last year, the group garnered a 10 per cent share of the Seberang Perai
residential property market.
-
"We expect after the IPO, our market share will increase above 10 per
cent," he added.
To date, Tambun Indah has sold more than 2,800 residential units mostly
in mainland Penang with a GDV of more than RM800 million.
Teh said the group achieved commendable financial performance over the
years and had maintained a low-borrowing financial model so as not to
burden the balance sheet.
As at December 31, 2009, the group was in net cash position.
"Tambun Indah has adopted a progressive dividend policy of paying
between 40 and 60 per cent of group net profits to shareholders.
-
"At an IPO price of 70 sen per share, the annualised net dividend yield
is estimated to be approximately seven per cent in financial year 2010.
"We believe this policy will go a long way in not only attracting
investors but also ensuring value-creation for the long-term," he added.
Tambun Indah's IPO consist of a public issue of 32 million new ordinary
shares and an offer-for-sale of 22.1 million vendor shares at an IPO
price of 70 sen per share.
Of the 32 million new ordinary shares under the public issue, 11.05
million shares will be allocated for the Malaysian public.
Meanwhile, it has also allocated 9.9 million shares for private
placement and 11.05 million shares for eligible directors, employees and
business associates of the group.
The 22.1 million offer-for-sale shares will be allocated for placement
to identified investors.
-
Additionally, the group's IPO will raise RM22.4 million in proceeds for
the group.
Of this, RM12.70 million will be allocated for working capital, RM7.10
million for repayment of borrowings and the remaining RM2.60 million to
defray listing expenses.
MIMB Investment Bank Bhd is the adviser, sponsor, underwriter and
placement agent for the group's IPO exercise. -- BERNAMA

-

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Benalec IPO

Benalec Holdings Berhad IPO
Banalec IPO Open Date 28 December 2010
Closing Date 06 January 2011
Banalec IPO Issue Price RM 1.00
Benalec IPO Public Issue 100,000,000 shares.
Offer for Sale130,000,000
Private Placement 114,000,000
Issuing house MIH 507
Banalec IPO will be in Main Market
Tentative Date of Listing 17-01-11
-
From Benalec.
BENALEC Sdn Bhd was incorporated in 1978 as a contracting company specialized in undertaking civil engineering projects.
BENALEC GROUP was form to realize an objective to become an integrated, one-stop centre for marine construction services.
With the combined knowledge and experience in marine and civil engineering works, coupled with its own wide range of marine equipment and marine vessels now at its disposal, Benalec Group has extended its capacity and capability to deliver top-grade quality work to its customers.
Benalec has in a short span of time emerged as one of Malaysia's own top-notch homegrown integrated marine engineering and transportation specialists. It is a class "A" Civil and Marine Engineering Contractor registered with Pusat Khidmat Kontraktor (PKK) and a Grade G7 with the Construction Industry Development Board Malaysia (CIDB).
Managed by professionally qualified and skilled engineers with more than 25 years of hands-on experience and expertise, Benalec has proven itself capable of undertaking high-end projects in the local as well as regional arena.
In the case of the restoration of the damaged bund at Sungai Belukang, Bagan Datoh, Perak, which was described as one of the most difficult coastal protection work in Malaysia - the project was completed ahead of schedule under extreme circumstances. Benalec received high commendation and wide Press publicity for the accomplishment.
Benalec has expanded to Singapore with the setting up of Benalec Sdn Bhd Singapore Branch, which also has achieved ISO 9001:2008 and OHSAS 18001:2007 accreditation.
---------
Business Times 21 December 2010
MELAKA: Integrated marine construction services provider, Benalec Holdings Bhd expects to raise RM100 million in proceeds from its initial public offering (IPO).
Its managing director, Vincent Leaw Seng Hai, said group, which is en route to a listing on the main market of Bursa Malaysia by the first quarter of 2011, would use the proceeds as working capital for the current projects.
He said the company was involved in an extremely capital-intensive industry.
"It benefits us as it creates a tough barrier for new players to come in," he told Bernama after a site visit to its land reclamation project in Klebang here today.
Leaw said the company could potentially reclaim 834 hectares from the said project, which spanned 7km along the coast of Melaka.
"We have reclaimed about 440ha under several phases and some parcels have been sold to developers for construction and property developments," he said.
He said the group's core operations currently were land reclamation and dredging operations.
The group embarked on its first land reclamation project in Pantai Kok, Pulau Langkawi in 2000, and subsequently undertook several projects in Melaka and Teluk Gong in Port Klang in 2003.
The group has a fleet of 91 vessels to support its operations, notably the flat-top barge capable of carrying 2,000 cubic metres of sand, and the sand carrier that can discharge 1,000 cu m of sand per hour.
Leaw said the group currently has an order book of RM855 million.
"We have about RM664 million in unbilled orders and it can last us until 2016, and we are tendering for projects collectively worth about RM1 billion as well," he said.
He said the group was looking for opportunities to apply the same business model in Penang, Port Klang and Johor.
"We can expand easily as our shipyard in Sijangkang provides the synergy to support our operations.
"Maintaining our vessels could be done in-house as the shipyard is capable of repair and maintenance, shipbuilding, as well as fabrication and refurbishment," he said.
Meanwhile, Leaw said the group was in the midst of procuring its Building and Construction Authority licence from the Singapore government.
"Once we obtained the licence, we can bid for land reclamation projects there too," he said. -- BERNAMA

--------------
Bernama and The Star 29 December2010
Meanwhile, Benalec Holdings Bhd which is en route to a listing on Bursa Malaysia's Main Market on Jan 17 next year, is eyeing Indonesia and Vietnam to expand its marine construction services regionally.
Group Managing Director Vincent Leaw Seng Hai said Benalec expected to enter these new markets in the next two to three years.
"We have the potential to become a regional integrated marine construction specialist with our scalable business models that can be expanded into other regional markets," he told reporters after the launch of the company's listing prospectus here today.
Asked whether Benalec would open branch offices or set up joint ventures in Indonesia and Vietnam, he said: "To go overseas, I think it is good to team up with joint venture partners."
"We have identified the partners but not yet signed any memorandum of understanding."
Benalec currently has operations in Singapore, offering chartering services via its affiliated company, Oceanlec Pte Ltd.
Leaw said Benalec was in the midst of procuring the Building and Construction Authority (BCA) licence from the Singapore government to enable the company to bid for land reclamation projects.
"Once we secure the BCA licence, we will secure all the contracts under our branch office in Singapore," he added. -
-----------------
Business Times 29 Decmber 2010.
Benalec Holdings Bhd, a marine construction company, aims to expand to Vietnam and Indonesia in the next two to three years, as it eyes the next phase of growth.
The company, which does jobs like construction of helipad and jetty on a remote island in Kedah as well as land reclamation work in Langkawi and Penang, plans to enter these new markets with the help of partners.
"For new markets like Indonesia and Vietnam, I think it's safer for us if we team up with a joint-venture partner ... We have identified the potential partners, but haven't signed anything yet," said group managing director Vincent Leaw after the launch of its prospectus in Kuala Lumpur yesterday.
The company is expected to raise RM100 million, by issuing 100 million shares of 25 sen each at an issue price of RM1 each.
The initial public offering (IPO) also involves an offer for sale of 130 million existing shares at an offer price of RM1 each.
Funds raised from the public issue will be used as working capital and to finance ongoing projects.
Some RM90 million will be used to finance Benalec's three main ongoing projects, two of which are in completion stages, while the other is expected to start next year.
"Today, we are at the top of our game, and we have the potential to become a regional integrated marine construction specialist with our scaleable business models that can be expanded into other regional markets," said Leaw.
Founded by the late Leaw Eng Chang in 1978, Benalec started as an earthwork and general contractor. Since then, it has ventured into marine construction.
Among its proud moments are the setting up of its shipbuilding business through Benalec Shipyard, and within two years, it managed to build and deliver four tugboats that are now plying the waters in Southeast Asia.
The closing of the IPO application will be on January 6. It is expected to be listed on the Main Market on January 17.
AmInvestment Bank Bhd is the adviser, sole underwriter and sole placement agent of the IPO.

-

LBS to make RM0.48

LBS share price is about RM0.58.

But they going to make RM31.3 million from the Proposed Disposal of ZIC Property and ZIC Golf in China.

However, the Letter of Intent would be void if the formal agreement is not signed within 90 days from the date of Letter of Intent (don't know what date).

Excluding the 154 million LBS-WA warrant (exercise price RM1.00, expiry 2018 11/06/2018), the number of LBS shares are RM387 million.

They will make about RM0.08 per share. Diluted by LBS-WA warrant will be RM0.058 per share


Current LBS owned 60%, and they are selling 10%.
WHAT IF, just a WHAT IF scenario.
What if LBS sell all 60%, they will make. . .
RM0.08 X 6 = RM0.48 profit per share.
Diluted with LBS warrant will be RM0.348 per share.

LBS share price is just RM0.58, by selling their China asset they can make RM0.348 to RM0.48 profit per share.



Background
Many years back, LBS took over the listing of INSTANGREEN CORPORATION BHD, and they got this Chinese land very cheap. Last time China is not developed and the land was very cheap.
LBS own 60% of the land. Now the land value has jumped.
That is the story.


IMPORTANT NOTE:
This is my own analysis. I am not an analyst and no knowledge in doing analysis.
I just pick up some info and trying to do some analysis.
The figures are not verified.
This is more for case studies purpose



Extracted from Bursa Malaysia........
This announcement is dated 22 October 2010.

Type : Announcement

Subject : LETTER OF INTENT
Contents : 1. Introduction

The Board of LBS Bina Group Berhad (“LBGB” or “Company”) wishes to inform that the Company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Lamdeal Consolidated Development Limited (“LCDL”) and Lamdeal Golf & Country Club Limited (“LGCCL”) have on today signed a Letter of Intent (“LOI”) with Zhuhai Special Economic Zone Long Yi Enterprises Company (“Long Yi”) expressing Long Yi’s intention to buy and LCDL’s and LGCCL’s intentions to dispose of their respective 10% interest in the joint venture companies, namely Zhuhai International Circuit Consolidated Development Limited (“ZIC Property”) and Zhuhai International Circuit Golf & Country Club Limited (“ZIC Golf”) for an aggregate cash consideration of RMB200 million only (“Proposed Disposal”).

2. Information on LCDL, LGCCL, ZIC Property and ZIC Golf

LCDL and LGCCL are the Hong Kong subsidiaries of LBGB acting as investment arms for LBGB’s investment in ZIC Property and ZIC Golf.

LCDCL and LGCCL together with their joint venture partner, Long Yi have in year 1992 formed two sino-foreign cooperative joint venture entities in Zhuhai, China, namely ZIC Golf and ZIC Property to jointly operate a 36-hole golf course known as Lakewood Golf & Country Club (“Lakewood”) and the property development project on the 197-acre lands located in and around the Lakewood Golf Club.

LCDL and LGCCL are respectively entitled to a profit sharing of 60% in ZIC Property and ZIC Golf.


3. Salient Terms of LOI

a) LCDL and LGCCL intend to dispose of their respective 10% interest in ZIC Property and ZIC Golf (“10% Interest”) and Long Yi intends to purchase such 10% Interest for an aggregate consideration of RMB200 million (“Consideration Sum”). Upon the completion of the Proposed Disposal, LCDL and LGCCL would respectively entitle to a profit sharing of 50% in ZIC Property and ZIC Golf.

b) Formal agreement would be signed between the parties and amendments would be made onto the Articles of Association of ZIC Property and ZIC Golf to reflect the provisions spelt out in the formal agreement within 30 days from the date of LOI.

c) The land premium for the development land under ZIC Property would be computed based on the prevailing rate fixed by the Land Office of Zhuhai City wherein the portion computed based on RMB270 per square meter would be borne by Long Yi and any excess amount would be captured as development cost of ZIC Property.

d) The LOI would be void if the formal agreement is not signed within 90 days from the date of LOI.


4. Basis of Consideration Sum

The Consideration Sum of RMB200 million was arrived based on negotiation.

The proposed payment terms for the Consideration Sum are as follows:-

a) First payment of the Consideration Sum amounting to RMB50 million is payable within 30 days from the completion of the process of affirmation of development land rights and the development plan.

b) The remaining Consideration Sum amounting to RMB150 million would be settled by deducting Long Yi’s profit entitlement in the ZIC Property.


5. Rationale for the Proposed Disposal

The Board is of the view that it would be more beneficial to LBGB Group to unlock the value of its 10% investment in these two companies and utilize the proceeds from the Proposed Disposal for working capital purpose.

6. Potential Financial Effects of the Proposed Disposal

(i) Share Capital and Shareholdings of Substantial Shareholders


The Proposed Disposal will not have any effect on the issued and paid-up share capital and shareholdings of the substantial shareholders of LBGB Group.

(ii) Net Assets
The Proposed Disposal, if materialized, is not expected to have material impact on the Net Assets of LBGB Group.

(iii) Earnings

Upon completion of the Proposed Disposal, LBGB Group is expected to report a net profit of RM31.3 million from the Proposed Disposal.

(iv) Gearing

The Proposed Disposal is not expected to have material impact on the gearing of LBGB Group.

The LOI does not have any impact on item i) to iv) above.

7. Highest Percentage Ratio Applicable


The highest percentage ratio applicable to the Proposed Disposal pursuant to paragraph 10.02(g) of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad’s Main Market Listing Requirements is 22.1%.

8. Approval Required

The Proposed Disposal is not subject to the approval of the shareholders of LBGB.


9. Documents Available for Inspection

Copy of the LOI is available for inspection at the Registered Office of LBGB at Plaza Seri Setia, Level 1-4, No. 1, Jalan SS9/2, 47300 Petaling Jaya, Selangor during normal office hour from Monday to Friday (except for public holidays) for a period of fourteen (14) days from the date of this announcement.

Monday, December 27, 2010

What is PEGGY Method

What is stock market PEGGY Method?


PEGGY Method is to evaluate stocks base on:

PE: PE Ratio
G: Growth
G: Gearing
Y: Yield (Dividend)

Many people evaluate stocks base on just one factor. Example, some buy shares just base on low PE ratio but without knowing the dividend yield. Some buy shares because the dividend yield is high but ignoring the PE ratio or growth. Some buy shares because the company got potential to grow, not taking into consideration other factors.

In order to have a better evaluation of a company, there are many many factors that we need to consider. But we have no time and we are not expert or analyst, and we don’t know how to evaluate a stock.

PEGGY Method is easy to use because:
1)the name PEGGY is easy to remember.
2)PE Ratio, Growth, Gearing and Dividend Yield are the most easily available information.
3)these PEGGY figure are very easy to interpret or evaluate.

PE ratio – The lower the better
Growth – The higher the better
Gearing – The lower the better
Yield (dividend) – The higher the better


For more info on PEGGY Method, here… http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/Peggy%20Method

Asia Media Group IPO Target Price Fair Value in LRT

Asia Media IPO has already opened. Before any IPO listed, we normally see many articles in the newspapers. Do you realise that not many write-up on Asia Media group IPO in the newspaper or business magazine? Did you see any story on Asia Media IPO, Asia Media target price fair value, Asia Media Group directors and shareholders? Maybe yes, but is limited. I still have not find any article on Asia Media in the newspaper.

Have you ever wonder why? I am just suspecting, probably is not the real reason.

Asia Media Group IPO is an out-of-home transit TV company, provides high quality infotainment and targeted advertising through the use of digital electronic displays installed in various outdoor premises. They help advertiser to advertise in places such as buses, LRT, MRT, etc. They are actually the competitor of newspaper.

If newspaper write many articles on Asia Media Group IPO, then many advertisers will know about Asia Media Group and they may cut down on the newspaper advertisement and give some business to Asia Media Group.

I think that is the reason why we seldom see any newspaper publish articles on Asia Media Group IPO.

If you want to know what is AMedia target price fair value, you may have to look around the buses or LRT and see whether got any research on Asia Media Group target price or fair value.
Just my opinion.

Friday, December 24, 2010

How to improve on your trading or profit?

How to improve on your trading or profit?


Year 2010 coming to an end. In order to know how to improve on your trading or profit, one way is to do analysis on your own historical trading and improve on the weaknesses.

This is THE BEST time to analyse. Why?
2007 Super Bull
2008 Super Bear
2009 Super Recovery
2010 Good average Market

2007 to 2010 have four very different years. To confirm the anlaysis on trading, we need to go through different type of market directions. Easy to make money in 2007 but how about 2008 or 2010?

I have helped two friends to analyze their trading, and here is the findings.

FRIEND A weaknesses:
Stock selection average (not based on fundamental, not so good, but no further comment)

Refuse to cut loss on lousy stock (Should cut loss on lousy stock)

Make too little profit but loss is big (profit sell too quickly, but refuse cut loss. If profit sell quickly, should cut loss quickly)

Refuse to buy in 2008 – reason is market unstable (nobody know when is bottom, miss out on buying cheap stock)

Refuse to buy in 2009 when market rebounded (nobody know market direction, although price has gone up, it can go up more)

Good point is:
Invest in equal amount


FRIEND B weaknesses:
Risk tolerance is too low. Investment amount is low compare with income and saving (should not be afraid if long term investment)

Too many counters make up of small investment (try to reduce number of counters)

Small amount of investment – brokerage % high (try to buy fewer stock and each stock high amount)

Loss in buying IPO after listing (avoid IPO because for new stock the forecast is not that accurate)

Change mind too quickly. Brokerage cost is almost 50% of total yearly profit. (don’t be emotional, try to think long term, set a plan)

Too concentrate in PE ratio (use PEGGY Method, such as growth and dividend)

Loss on trying new thing (should start with paper trading or small investment)

Refuse to cut loss or take profit when things turn bad. When stock too low, then only cut (at that time should be buy. If want to cut should cut earlier)

Refuse to buy in 2008 – reason is market unstable (nobody know when is bottom, miss out on buying cheap stock)

Refuse to buy in 2009 when market rebounded (nobody know market direction, although price has gone up, it can go up more)



Good point is:
Invest in equal amount.
Invest based on Fundamental.
Although price has up, as long as cheap, has confident to buy. Nobody can predict the price.



POLITEMARKET’s COMMENT:
Spoken to Both A and B. Both A and B admitted the weaknesses. But both said very difficult to change because of emotion and personality. But B has made a commitment to change. Wish B all the best.

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Ayamas = Hai Yao Ma

Real incident.
Client A was helping Client B to place an order. R is remisier.
A and B are Chinese and they both speak to each other in Mandarin.
R is a Malay.
-

A: Buy Amcorp 20,000 shares. Just take the seller.
R: Ok. Done.

A was then talking to B: Hai Yao Ma?
In Mandarin it means "You Still Want?"
R heard the word Ayamas (sound like Hai Yao Ma)

R: Ok Ayamas.
A: Buy 10,000. Take the seller
R: Ok, bought 10,000 Ayamas.
A: What ! ! ! Why bought Ayamas ! ! !
End of story.
-
For info, both Amcorp share and Ayamas share have been delisted.
-
Politemarket's Comments:
No comment, just had a good laugh.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Asia Media Group Berhad IPO

Asia Media Group IPO.
Asia Media IPO opening date 22 December 2010.
Asia Media Group IPO closing date 29 December 2010.
Asia Media IPO Public Issue price RM0.23.
Public Issue 8 million shares.
Asia Media IPO issue price RM0.23.
Private Placement 90 million shares.
-
MIH 506
Asia Media IPO will be listed in ACE Market.
The tentative listing date of Asia Media IPO is 11 January 2011.
AMGB IPO stock code is 0159
-
Asia Media Group Berhad, an out-of-home transit TV company, provides high quality infotainment and targeted advertising through the use of digital electronic displays installed in various outdoor premises. It offers TransNet, a channel that uses LCD-TV screens to display infotainment programs, advertisements, community-driven messages, entertainment programs, news, drama and movies, documentaries, and public service bulletins in public transportations. The company has strategic partnerships with RapidKL, Handal Indah, Plusliner, and Nice++ fleets. Asia Media Group Berhad was formerly known as Gerak Bayan Sdn Bhd and changed its name to Asia Media Group Berhad in January 2010. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Puchong, Malaysia.
Recognised as the 'Biggest Transit-TV Network' in Malaysia, as awarded by The Malaysia Book of Records.
Source: Bursa Malaysia, Investing Business Week, Asia Media

Paramon Target Price Fair Value RM6.20

Paramount Corporation Bhd Target Price Fair Value Analysis Research Report.
Paramon share price RM4.55.
Let us do my PEGGY method test:
PE: P/E ratio 7.1x
G:  Growth about 10%
G:  Gearing Net cash
Y:  Yield (Dividend). Gross 7%
Figure I saw from the rhbresearch web
Paramount fair value target price is RM6.20
-
I'm not sure after the special dividend of RM0.40,
the Paramount Target Price still the same or not.

If you look at the PEGGY Method figure, the PE is low with growth.
Net cash with good dividend.
But two things here.
1) The growth is ONLY about 10%. Some say 10% is not good enough. Up to you to make decision.
2)Many people are expecting property market to have BIG crash. Again, up to you to judge.

My view is the 10% is not very high. But have you thought of the low PE and very generous dividend?
Paramount is very generous on the dividend. If they make money, they will pay you good dividend.
-
After the sale of Jerneh (about RM1.00 per share), if Paramon unable to buy landbank, they will return the balance RM0.60 to the shareholders.
According to RHB, before the sale of Jerneh, as at mid of 2010, Paramon has net cash about RM175 million. Very seldom developers are with net cash.
Paramon also has enough retained earnings to do a bonus issue. The maximum is 3 bonus for every 1.
With Bonus issue or share split, it will enhance the stock liquidity and improve Paramon stock price
They may plan the listing of KDU IPO. But probably the listing of KDU IPO is not so soon.

Property market crash or not crash, I don't know.

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Maxwell IPO

Maxwell International Holdings Bhd IPO.
Open Date 21 December 2010
Closing Date 28 December 2010
Maxwell IPO Price RM 0.54.
Maxwell IPO Public Issue 63,750,000 shares.
Maxwell IPO Private Placement 43,750,000 shares.
Issuing House and Number MIH 503.
Maxwell stock will be listed in Main Market.
Maxwell IPO Tentative listing date is 06 January 2011.
-

---------------
21 December 2010. Business Times. Maxwell International Holdings Bhd IPO, a China-based sports footwear designer and manufacturer en route to a listing on Bursa Malaysia, aims to raise RM34.4 million from its initial public offering.
Chairman Jenny Li Kwai Chun said part of the proceeds would be used to improve the group''s design and development (D&D) capabilities.
"To hone our competitive edge even further, we plan to strengthen our D&D capabilities by expanding our team, as well as increasing the number of shoe designs from an average of 1,000 to 1,500 per year.
"The larger number of designs would broaden our product range and revenue base in the long run," she told reporters after signing the underwriting agreement with OSK Investment Bank Bhd in Kuala Lumpur today.

She also said the company's present focus was serving a much larger market as an original equipment manufacturer and original design manufacturer for international brands. -- Bernama
---------------
31 December 2010. The Edge. KUALA LUMPUR: Maxwell International Holdings Bhd IPO, a sports shoe design and manufacturing group in China, has applied to the Securities' Commission (SC) for listing on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia Securities.
Its prospectus exposure has been released on the SC's website.
Maxwell IPO will offer 63.75 million new shares of 40 sen each in an initial public offering (IPO), out of which 43.75 million shares (10.9% of the enlarged paid-up capital) will be privately placed out to selected investors, while 20 million shares (5% of the enlarged paid-up capital) will be for application by the public.
OSK Investment Bank Bhd has been appointed to work on the IPO.
Maxwell IPO was incorporated in Malaysia on Nov 3, 2009 and has a wholly owned unit, Jinjiang Zhenxing Shoes Plastic Co Ltd, which is the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) for sports shoe brands including Diadora, Brooks, Kappa and Yonex.
Zhenxing's customers are mainly authorised OEM and original design manufacturer (ODM) brand distributors based in China, with the shoes for both the local and overseas markets.
In its prospectus, Maxwell said Zhenxing had four production lines in its factory in Zhushuxia Industrial Zone, Jinjiang city of Fujian province. The sports shoe maker has an annual production capacity of eight million pairs and develops close to 1,000 shoe designs annually.
"Our future plans for the continued growth of our business are acquisition of additional production lines to increase production capacity and upgrading of existing production facilities, strengthen the design and development capabilities and expansion of product range, increase sales and marketing activities for our sports shoes and expand businesses," it said.
Maxwell added that 42% of its proceeds from the listing exercise would be used to increase its production lines over 24 months.
The group's net profit for the year ended Dec 31, 2008 (FY08) rose 66% to RM41.67 million from RM25.1 million in FY07, while revenue rose 52% to RM218.06 million from RM143.46 million.
For the first half of FY09, Maxwell's net profit rose 50.37% to RM30.76 million from RM20.46 million, underpinned by a 40.81% increase in revenue to RM148.27 million from RM105.3 million.
"Currently, Zhenxing Shoes outsources part of its sports shoe production to external contract manufacturers, which accounted for about 43.1% of Zhenxing Shoes' revenue in FY2008," it said.
Maxwell said Zhenxing had in 2003 and 2004 registered certain trademarks to launch its own brand initiative, but that had not been utilised given the strong competition by more established brands and potential capital expenditure to launch and maintain the brand. Hence, the management had decided to put its branding initiative on hold to focus on the OEM and ODM businesses.
Following the IPO, Maxwell's executive director and chairman Li Kwai Chun will see her stake in the group diluted to 54.6% from 64.9%. OSK TECHNOLOGY [ ] Ventures Sdn Bhd, which is a substantial shareholder in Maxwell, will see its direct stake in Maxwell diluted to 7.2% from 8.6%.

-----------------

15 October 2010. The Star. KUALA LUMPUR: Maxwell International Holdings Bhd IPO, which is targeting to list on the Bursa Malaysia Main Market in mid-November, says its business focus is very different from other China-based shoe manufacturers listed here.
Aware of the bad perception of Chinese initial public offerings (IPO), Maxwell chairman and executive director Jenny Li Kwai Chun said her company was very different, as its focus had always been very international.
"We do not carry our own brand. All our shoes are exported as original equipment manufacturing (OEM) and original design manufacturing (ODM) for renowned global brands.
"These brands will not simply allow just any company to manufacture for them," she said after signing the underwriting agreement with OSK Investment Bank Bhd, its IPO adviser, underwriter and placement agent.
Maxwell is the OEM and ODM for global brands such as Kappa, Diadora, Brooks, FILA and Yonex.
Li also emphasised that Maxwell wasn't just a generic manufacturer, but also a designer.
"Presently, we have 30 staff in our designing team, of whom five are full-time designers. Maxwell will be investing another RM6mil to further improve its design and development (D&D) range," she said.
The company is likely to launch its prospectus on Oct 28.
The Fujian-based sports footwear designer and manufacturer aims to raise RM34.4mil from its listing exercise. Part of the listing proceeds will be used to improve the group's D&D capabilities.
For its financial year ended Dec 31 (FY09), Maxwell recorded net profit of RM118.7mil against revenue of RM583mil. It produced 11 million pairs of shoes last year, compared with its normal capacity of 8 million pairs.
With the growing affluence of the global population, Li said the company was now in a position where demand was outstripping supply.
Thus, the company has been growing at a compounded annual growth rate of 60% in the last four years.
At its IPO price of 54 sen, the stock will be trading at about 3.5 times price earnings ratio based on FY09 numbers.
Its IPO consists of a public issue of 63.75 million new shares at an issue price of 54 sen each.
Of the total, 20 million shares will be allocated for the Malaysian public and 43.75 million shares for private placement to selected investors.
For the private placement portion, the company has received interest from investors in China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia.
Thus far, four Chinese companies are listed on Bursa - Xingquan International Sports Holdings Ltd, Multi Sports Holdings Ltd, XiDeLang Holdings Ltd and K-Star Sports Ltd.
All are presently trading below their IPO prices, at low price-to-earnings ratio of 3-4 times.
Multi Sports is down to 52 sen compared with its IPO price of 85 sen. Xingquan is currently trading at RM1.65 against its IPO price of RM1.71 for retailers and RM1.80 for institutional investors.
XiDeLang is also underwater with its current share price at 50.5 sen from its IPO price of 58 sen. K-Star is currently trading at RM2.06 from its IPO price of RM2.15.

KLCI to hit 2610 points !- FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index

In Malaysia, a breakout may suggest a long-term MINIMUM KLCI target of
2,610 for the KLCI index, according to the analysts, who didn't specify
a time frame.
-
According to CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets technical analysts, Malaysian
stock markets may soon end 16 years of stagnation and enter a "golden
era".
-
The "secular bear markets" may be similar to ones in South Korea from
1989 to 2005, Indonesia from 1990 to 2004, India from 1992 to 2004,
Singapore from 1994 to 2006, and the US from 1966 to 1982.
-
According to CLSA, since then, benchmark indexes in the five countries
have rallied at least 51 per cent and posted gains of as much as 282 per
cent, the analysts said.
-

Extracted in early September 2010. Outdated report for info only. For
full report on the KLCI target, please visit Bloomberg or business
times.


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RHB Stocks Top Picks

In RHB Recent report, they have their Top Picks:
I don't know what is their criteria for top picks.
-
I think is big company with high growth. Not sure.
-
Stock / Share     Price  Fair Value Target Price   %upside
THPlantation1.610       2.800   74%
MAHB          6.100     8.020   31%
KLK           21.56     27.35   27%
HSL           1.810     2.270   25%
Dialog       1.620   1.940   20%
Gamuda     3.770   4.510   20%
Kencana       2.190   2.600   19%
SPSetia       5.480   6.500   19%
IJMLand            3.120   3.650   17%
JayaTiasa       4.150   4.830   16%
Genting              11.06 12.80     16%
CIMB          8.500     9.800   15%

Monday, December 20, 2010

Buy This Counter- Good!!

Share price cheap, RM1.00 only. Make RM100 million profit. Buy this counter good, cash rich, profit increase, got dividend, management very good. Got new projects and new products. Venturing into more countries.
Good??

Share Price RM1.00. Let take a PEGGY test
.
PE: P/E ratio 31
G: Growth 2% for next three years
G: Zero gearing, net cash
Y: Yield (dividend) 1.5%

POLITE MARKET'S COMMENTS:
I know the company is good. But whether it is worth to buy.
Got new project? Make RM100 million project? So what??
The above stock is NOT GOOD!!! PE high, low dividend. Low growth.

Whenever friends or remisiers say is good, ask them:
What is the PE ratio
Expected growth rate %
Gearing?
What is the dividend yield
DO NOT just base on the word GOOD to make buy decision.

Saturday, December 18, 2010

KFC to add 50% more kedai Ayamas outlet

KFC Holdings (Malaysia) Bhd (KFCH) intends to open 25 "Kedai Ayamas" outlets next year to complement its existing 50 outlets in the country.
"It will cost us about RM350,000 in investments to set up each outlet and we will invest RM9 million to set up the 25 new outlets next year," KFCH Managing Director Jamaludin Md Ali said at the launch of Kedai Ayamas'' new delivery service.
The new service is a pilot project of eight outlets located around the Klang Valley, with an initial investment of RM200,000.
"We believe our delivery service is a relatively untapped avenue with great potential. When it comes to retail outlet such as ours we believe our investment will be amply rewarded," he said.

Jamaludin said KFC opened 15 outlets this year and recorded a sales growth of 43 per cent in the first nine-months of this year compared with entire 2009.
He added between 65 per cent and 70 per cent of the new outlets coming up next year would be located around the Klang Valley.
"With our roll-out plan, we expect to maintain a double-digit growth next year. Our customers prefer to go to our Kedai Ayamas outlets simply because we can guarantee the quality of our chicken," he said.
He also said the company had three processing plants in the country currently with a combined capacity to process about 140,000 chickens per day.
"Over 60 per cent of the chickens are distributed to our existing outlets while the remaining will be refined into further processed products to be sold under the brand name of Ayamas," he said.
On the appointment of Kamaruzzaman Abu Kassim as the new Chief Executive Officer of Johor Corporation Bhd, Jamaludin said he was confident of the new management.
"As the new CEO, his reponsibility would be to help Johor Corp grow further and I am fully supportive of his plans to improve the performance of the group," he said.
KFCH is currently a unit of Johor Corporation via its subsidiary, Kulim (Malaysia) Bhd which holds a 57.5 per cent controlling stake in QSR Brands Bhd, which in turn controls KFCH. -- Bernama and Busienss Times 16 December 2010.

Friday, December 17, 2010

Sozo IPO Target Price Fair Value

SOZO IPO Target Price Fair Value is RM0.92 by Hwang DBS.
Sozo IPO Target Price fair value is RM0.965 by TA Securities.

My guess is open 0.83 to 0.85.
Then drop to RM0.82, then rebound and close 0.84.
Sozo Global Limited IPO.

I alway predict wrong on IPO, accuracy is 40% only.
What's your guess?

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Kencana Target Price Fair Value RM2.60 and RM2.93

A: Ring... Ring....
B: Hello, remisier speaking
A: I heard Kencana is the only oil and gas company OSK recomend buy.
B: Yes.
A: Please comment briefly on Kencana
B: If you want short story, then base on PEGGY Method ok?
A: Ok.
B: Kencana PE ratio is 24x, will drop to 14.6 July 2011.
High growth for next few years. Net cash. But dividend yield is <1%.
A: So little dividend. But with net cash, I think they can achieve the growth forecast. Not worry about cash flow problem.
B: You are right. PE is not low, but selling point is growth.
A: Any Kencana fair value?
B: Kencana target price fair value RM2.60(RHB buy). RM2.93 (OSK BUY)
A: Market today down 11.58 points, but Kencana up RM0.11. Sure got something.
B: Hahaha... you can not interpret that way.
A: But I always hear people say that. Ok. BYE.
B: BUY?
A: No. I said BYE, not BUY. Will call you if want to buy.
B: OK.

Taliworks Share BUY with target price RM1.49

Oh NO.... I already sold ! ! As I have said in earlier post, I bought after the buy signal, I don't know when to sell. Still got long way to learn.

According to Dow Jones 16 December 2010, Maybank IB Research rates Talisworks Corpat Short-Term Buy based on charts with upside targets and resistance levels at MYR1.33, and then MYR1.49. Technical analyst Lee Cheng Hooi says the stock made a major daily Wave 5 low of MYR1.12 earlier this month, with grossly oversold and bullish divergent signals.
"With the positive crossovers from the CCI, DMI, MACD, Stochastic and Oscillator indicators, we feel that Talisworks will see much further upside potential," says Lee. The shares are +0.8% at MYR1.28. On the
downside, support is eyed at MYR1.27, then MYR1.12. Stop-loss is at MYR1.10.

QL Target Price Fair Value

QL Resources Bhd.
QL Share price RM5.69 December 14, 2010
Initiate coverage with a buy call at RM5.60 and target price of RM7.30:
We initiate our coverage of QL Resources with a 'buy' recommendation and
target price of RM7.30 based on 20 times CY11 PER. QL's products will
benefit directly from rising global demand and price trends for food
commodities. The group is one of Asia's largest surimi manufacturers and
a Malaysian market leader in livestock feed trading, fish meal and egg
production.
-
We have forecast a three-year forward forecast EPS CAGR of 17.3%
(FY11/13), that will be driven by strong demand for QL's marine,
livestock feed, poultry products and palm oil, with rising population
and disposable income, as well as the group's steady capacity expansion.
Diversification reduces earnings volatility by smoothing out the
cyclical nature of its resource-based activities.
-
QL's expansion plan is both local and regional, with total group capex
set to increase by 60% in the next two years to RM200 million annually.
The group is replicating its business model in the Asean region with:
(i) new poultry farms in Tay Ninh, Vietnam, and Cianjur, Indonesia; (ii)
a new marine plant being constructed in Surabaya; and (iii) further
planting and palm oil mill slated for its plantation in Tarakan,
Kalimantan.
-
QL benefits from the government's pro-agriculture stance via tax
incentives that translate to a lower tax rate (15% in FY10) and
subsidised diesel for its deepsea fishing operations. The group's latest
venture into renewable energy is directly in accordance with the
government's promotion of green technology as contained in Budget 2011.
-
Despite what seems like expensive valuations, we are bullish on QL as we
firmly believe it deserves premium valuation to peers as well as the
market. QL's next two years' earnings CAGR of 16.1% is impressive
compared with Malaysian peers of 5.6%. Furthermore, over the last 10
years, QL's average 12-month forward earnings growth is impressive at
23%. At our target price, PEG ratio is undemanding at only 0.9 times
based on 10-year average growth rate. ' ECM Libra Investment Research,
Dec 14
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, December 15, 2010.
-
-
QL Target Price RM7.30 ECMLIBRA 15/12/2010
QL Target Price RM6.88 BUY OSK 23/11/2010
QL Target Price RM6.50 BUY MAYBANK 23/11/2010
QL Target Price RM6.50 RHB BUY 23/11/2010

-
POLITEMARKET's COMMENT:
By using PEGGY Method, the above article is summarized into high PE (not
good) and high growth (good).
Gearing and dividend is not mentioned.
For info, the gearing is high (not good) and dividend is ok (normal).
Conclusion is QL PE ratio and gearing is high.
But in order to enjoy high growth company, this may be risk that may
have to be taken.
-

Taliworks Share - I made 12%

Refering to my previous posts, I did a practical test. After identified the buy signal, I went in small quantity Taliworks share at price RM1.17 and the next day sold at RM1.31. Why sold at RM1.31? I asked a frined for opinion. He said the resistence level is at RM1.32.

I normally don't do trading. But this is for practical exam. Just like piano, theory plus practical.
Theory is be able to identify buy signal, and practical is actually bought it and make profit.
I made 12% Taliworks profit, after minus out the brokerage, got about 10%+. But is a small quantity profit.
Piano got grade 8.
I think I have just passed grade 1.
I actually don't know when to sell or hold, have to seek help.
Just for learning and fun.
Happy because I don't have to pay tuition fee, plus got reward (profit).

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Kencana share Target Price Fair Value RM2.93

OSK Research has maintained a "buy" on Kencana Petroleum with a target price of RM2.93.
-
This stock remains "our only pick in the O&G sector for now. We believe the good 1QFY11 results represent the beginning of the good tidings in store for the stock".
-
The next thing to do is for investors to be on the lookout for: i) the announcement of fabrication contracts worth about RM300 million; ii) a portion of the hook-up and commissioning contract worth RM1.5 billion; iii) potentially moving up the value chain and into areas such as oil field management etc, and iv) potential tie-up with McDermott to fabricate deepwater platforms.
-
Source: Business Times

Bina Puri Target Price Fair Value RM1.92

A: I heard Kenanga recommend Bina Puri share.
The BPuri target price fair value is RM1.92.
B: Base on the report, what do you think?
A: Don't know. I don't know how to evaluate stock.
B: Why don't you try using PEGGY Method.
A: PE 7.7x, ok. Strong growth for next few years. High gearing.
The dividend yield is about 3%.
B: Now how?
A: I think is good except gearing.
B: The decision is yours whether to buy or not.
But at least you understand the basic figures of the company.
A: Thanks, quite easy.

-

Taliworks Bullish Hold or Sell

Last two days while learning technical analysis, indentified Talliworks shares bullish break-out (refer to my last few posts).
It was a confirmed bullish buy signal, by looking at the volume and price movement.
But now I don't know what to do.
What is the immediate target price? Wait or take profit?
Or now is the buy signal?
-
I feel technical analysis just like learning piano.
Grade 1 to Grade 8. Theory and practical.
If I can identify bullish buy signal, pass theory grade one.
If I bought it and made profit, pass practical grade one.
But need to learn until grade 8.
-
Really really tough.....
-

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Taliworks already Bullish Broke Out

I think Taliworks already have a bullish break out (refer to my earlier post).
But now I got another problem, if we have bought it earlier, when and what price to sell?
Wait for continue uptrend or what?
Will the price come down soon?
Or it is just started bullish trend?
Technical Analysis is very touch difficult for me.
Please read my earlier Taliworks posts, got two posts.
-

Taliworks Bullish Break Out?

Today I will be monitoring Taliworks.
The price has dropped so much and has stabilized.
Based on MACD it is bullish break out.
But I am not good in technical analysis.
Need many other things to confirm.
Will continue to learn.
-
Please refer to my yesterday post on Taliworks.

-

Monday, December 13, 2010

Sozo IPO oversubscribe allocation table or basis of allotment

Sozo IPO PUBLIC ISSUE is oversubscribed 3.28 times.
Here are the Sozo IPO oversubscribe allocation table or basis of allotment:

http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com/EDMS/edmsweb.nsf/ba387758ae37412b482568a300466fb6/5302ec4933f3ba99482577f8003b171f/$FILE/PRESS%20RELEASE-Amended.pdf

Taliworks Target Price fair Value RM1.60 Broke Out?

Taliworks Corporation Berhad target price fair value RM1.60.
By OSK 26 November 2010 BUY.
Taliworks share price is RM1.14
-
Price has dropped from a high of RM2.00 4 May 2010 to current RM1.14.
I think part of the reason of the price drop was because the conversion of the warrants. Previously the warrants were trading at a discount. I think some may convert the warrants and sell Taliworks shares.
Now the warrants have expired and no more conversion, the selling pressure may be gone.
Another reason was the result was not so good, but things have improved.
-
As you can see from the MACD, the price has stabilized and have triggered a MACD buy signal.
-
I am not good at technical analysis. So, I will monitor this stock to learn. If you are good in technical analysis, maybe can share with us.
-
Taliwrk target price fair value is RM1.60, what if the technical analysis is wrong, still buying a good counter recommended by OSK.
-
Based on diluted basis, EPS is above RM0.04 in the 3rd quarter of 2010.
Total three quarters is >RM0.09.
-
No further info on the growth prospect or dividend.
-
Not buying, but I will monitor the price and volume to learn technical analysis.


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Rule of 72 -How Many Years to Double Your Investment

The 'Rule of 72' is a simple way to determine how many years an investment/figure will double, given a fixed annual rate of interest. By dividing 72 by the annual rate of return, investors can get a rough estimate of how many years it will take for the investment to double.

For example, 7.2% return a year.
So, divide the 72 by 7.2 = 10 years.
If you invest $100,000, the return is 7.2%, and after 10 years you will have double of $100,000, that is $200,000.

Not just apply to investment, it can apply to any other calculation.
If a population is growing at the rate of 3.6% per year, then it will take 20 years for the population to double.

Don't be surprise that many still don't know what is Rule of 72.
After I finished my studies and worked for few years, I still have not heard of Rule of 72.
My father was a bit suprise when I told him that I don't know what is Rule of 72.

Rule of 72 is not 100% accurate. It is just a rough estimate. Very useful for mental calculations
Some use 70, some use 69.
When dealing with low rates of return, the Rule of 72 is fairly accurate and is more easily divisible.


Rate     Actual Years   Rule of 72    Rule of 70    Rule of 69
0.25%    277.6          288.0             280.0           276.0
0.50%    139.0          144.0           140.0           138.0
1%         69.7              72.0          70.0             69.0
2%          35.0            36.0           35.0            34.5
3%        23.5            24.0            23.3             23.0
4%       17.7             18.0           17.5              17.3
5%      14.2             14.4             14.0            13.8
6%       11.9            12.0             11.7            11.5
7%     10.25          10.29           10.00             9.86
8%        9.01           9.00           8.75             8.63
9%         8.04            8.00         7.78            7.67
10%     7.27            7.20            7.00           6.90
12%     6.12           6.00            5.83             5.75
15%     4.96          4.80            4.67             4.60
18%     4.19        4.00             3.89              3.83
20%       3.80         3.60        3.50               3.45
25%      3.11        2.88         2.80               2.76
40%     2.06         1.80         1.75             1.73
50%    1.71       1.44          1.40              1.38
60%    1.48         1.20      1.17                1.15
70%    1.31         1.03     1.00               0.99

Saturday, December 11, 2010

DRB Hicom take private RM2.20-RM2.70 - Deal by Maybank

According to Business Times 9 December 2010. There has been speculation that Syed Mokhtar could offer anywhere between RM2.20 and RM2.70 for the DRB-HICOM shares he does not own. Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar Al Bukhary is believed to be considering taking auto and banking group DRB-HICOM Bhd (1619) private, people familiar with the plan said. It is further believed that the tycoon is being advised by Maybank Investment Bank Bhd on the plan which could cost him close to RM2 billion.
If this is true, then there may be a DRB Hicom General Offer.


For more infomation on other rumours or news, click here.

http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/Rumours%20or%20News

Friday, December 10, 2010

DRB Hicom Target Price Fair Value RM3.55

DRBHCOM target price fair value of RM3.55 is given by Hwang DBS Vickers Research.
-
They said DRB-HICOM is the cheapest conglomerate in Malaysia.
They initiated coverage with DRB-HICOM target price fair value of RM3.55 and a Buy rating, that is based on 20% discount to their Sum of parts (SOP) value.
-
They said 3 core themes - i) Bargain valuations; ii) strong proxy
to consumption story and iii) beefing up recurring income
-Wildcard is a potential privatization
-
According to Business Times 9 December 2010. There has been speculation that Syed Mokhtar could offer anywhere between RM2.20 and RM2.70 for the DRB-HICOM shares he does not own. Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar Al Bukhary is believed to be considering taking auto and banking group DRB-HICOM Bhd (1619) private, people familiar with the plan said. It is further believed that the tycoon is being advised by Maybank Investment Bank Bhd on the plan which could cost him close to RM2 billion.

KFC India by KFC Malaysia

For reading pleasure....

KFC India, a subsidiary of Kuala Lumpur-based KFC Malaysia, has been operating in India since a year, and has already opened six stores in the state of Maharashtra -- four in Mumbai, one in Pune and one in Aurangabad.

The KFC has plans to increase its number of stores to 17 next year, says Hezal Ahmad, the CEO of KFC India.

"India is a very interesting market because of its people, their lifestyle, diverse cultures and incredible business opportunities. The earning potential is unlimited. Our expansion will initially concentrate in Mumbai and Pune, both in Maharashtra, before we venture into other states.

"We owe our success in Mumbai to its people who are very cosmopolitan and open to new ideas and food," said Johor-born Hezal in an interview with Bernama during a recent Malaysia Sports Day 2010.

The receptiveness of the Mumbai people to KFC has been "phenomenal", as Ahmad puts it because of the exposure Mumbai's young people and professionals have had to international cuisines.

The KFC brand was easily recognised and accepted, he said.

The people of Mumbai also appreciated the idea of self-service in restaurants. "The self-service concept is a new trend in India and is gaining ground. The customers in our stores can have full meals and not confine themselves to mere snacking," he said.

The KFC India, is in fact, doing better business than its parent company in Malaysia. "Mumbai is better than Kuala Lumpur or anyone else in Malaysia in terms of sales turnover of restaurant stores.

"KFC India employs about 300 workers, 90 per cent of whom are Indians and the remaining 10 per cent are Malaysians. We have brought here our 37 years of skills and expertise from Malaysia," he said.

India's cash-rich middle-class is discovering the advantages of convenience foods which are however not always beneficial to good health.

"The future is bright for us in India. The country is also self-sufficient as far as ingredients for food preparation are concerned. We don't have to rely on imports of ingredients, as is the case with Malaysia, and can source these in India itself.

"Of course, we have brought the equipment needed for preparation of food, but then that is a one-time expenditure. India's middle-class is growing, at present, at a much faster rate than in Southeast Asian countries," said Hezal.

KFC India buys chicken from Vanky's India Ltd in Pune and Godrej Food Ltd in Mumbai.

Asked if he had encountered any difficulties in adjusting to the people, the food and the environment, Hezal said there has been initially some problems resulting from the hot and fried Indian food which he was not accustomed to.

"There were also frustrations over transportation and red tape. It took us two weeks to open a simple corporate account with a local bank in Mumbai.

"Workers' productivity was another problem, though it has improved now," he added. -- Bernama and Business Times

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Sozo IPO Target Price Fair Value RM0.965

Sozo Target Price Fair Value RM0.965
Sozo IPO issue price is RM0.80
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Let us do my PEGGY Method Test:
PE: PE ratio
G: Growth
G: Gearing
Y: Yield (dividend)

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The above SOZO target price fair value is by TA Securities.

PE ratio.
SOZO PE ratio is 4.2x (December 2010). Very low, very good.

Growth.
But according to TA Securities, there is not much growth. EPS RM0.191 (2010), RM0.193 (2011) and RM0.195 (2012). Bad.

Gearing
Net cash. Good. Sozo will have net cash of RM182m or RM0.39 per share. Wah!!!!

Dividend Yield.
Sozo have no dividend payout ratio policy. They will pay RM0.03 dividend for first year, then don't know.

Politemarket's Comment:
This stock is good because of very low PE ratio. Although TA forecast growth is low, but this is just forecast, it can be negative or it can be high growth. With net cash, they can use the money to further expand. Food industry generally can continue to do well during recession.

If this is Malaysia Stock, this is definitely a BUY at RM0.80. But this is China stock.
Look at China shoe company KStar, XDL, very cheap but nobody want to buy. Because investors concern whether the figure can be sustained. In Singapore, a China stock profit drop more than 90%.

However, investors quite like China stock China Ouhua.

Will investors treat Sozo be like the shoe companies (KStar or XDL), or China Ouhua?

My opinion is, Sozo will be like China Ouhua and attarct some investors. Why?

First, Sozo is not shoe company, they are food company.
Second, Khanzanah will be holding about 10% of Sozo.
Third, Sozo has a net cash of RM0.39 per share, that's almost 50% of RM0.80.

But all these are my opinion. Better check with your remisier or financial consultant.

HapSeng Buy Red Sell Green – HapSeng Target Price Fair Value RM3.09

Since 8 October 2010, Hapseng share price went up from RM2.90 to now RM5.31.
If you notice, every morning Hapseng share price will drop (on the screen it become red) and towards closing, Hap Seng share price will go up (on the screen it become green).

So people will now say buy Hapseng red and sell hapseng green on the same day to make profit.

Any Hapseng news? I don’t have. Of course the first reaction people will suspect is HapSeng General Offer.

For info, Hapseng Target price is RM3.09 (trading buy 3 November 2010 by Jupiter) and I think that one is outdated. Don’t worry, analysts will always change the Hap Seng target price fair value.

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

KSL Buy or Already Went Up?

A: Everywhere people ask to buy KSL. Already went up 7% to RM1.73.
B: What is KSL target price?
A: Market talk said RM2.60 within 3 months and RM3.00 within 6 month.
B: Can we start an argument on this?
A: Sure, go ahead.
B: If the price didn't go up, will you buy? If yes, why.
A: Yes, RM1.63. Because KSL target price is RM2.60 - RM3.00.
B: That KSL target price RM2.60-RM3.00 is it based on fundamental?
A: Yes, market talk mentions a lot of project and asset and valuation.
B: You willing to let go potential more than 50%, because of 7% risk?
A: You mean can buy KSL now?
B: I didn't say can buy KSL now. I want to argue with you.
A: Argue what?
B: Argue the sentence "went up already".
A: I afraid it comes down.
B: If you manage to buy at RM1.63, you not afraid it down?
A: err....
B: Public Bank up for 40 years already, forever can not buy?
A: err....
B: I thought we agreed buying based on fundamental and not price
A: err....
B: I think if KSL go up to RM2.00, you will buy it then.
A: At that time, too emotional seeing it keeps going up.
B: Agreed not to make statement "went up already"?
A: OK. Buy based on fundamental. Means KSL can buy?
B: You can refer to our previous discussion.

Sozo IPO - Sozo PE Ratio?

Sozo IPO - Sozo PE Ratio?
Many people asked me about Sozo IPO and Sozo target price fair value, and also Sozo PE ratio.

I don't have any research info, so I try to gather some info on Sozo IPO.

Existing Shares Issued 412,620,000
New shares issue       55,380,000
Total shares issue   468,000,000

According to The Star, Sozo reported a net profit of 150 million yuan (RM70mil) for FY09. Its net profit for the first six months ended June 30 amounted to 93 million yuan (RM43.4mil).

If I use RM43.4m X 2 to annualised, will be RM86.8m.
RM86.8m divided by 468,000,000 will be RM0.185
RM0.80 (Sozo IPO price) divided by RM0.185 = 4.3
Sozo PE ratio will be 4.3x.

Am i right? I am not good in research or analysis.

Few things need to be verified. Is net profit RM43.4mil? Because although is Sozo, but sometimes group or company, or division or company has split for IPO or what. Another thing is can I use RM43.4m X 2?

Please consult your remisier or dealer to verify.





More info on Sozo IPo from The Star 24 November 2010:
Twelve institutions and high net worth individuals agree to take up its shares
PETALING JAYA: After almost a year of delay, China-based Sozo Global Ltd has finally secured investors to take up the placement of shares for its initial public offering (IPO).
Sozo, a manufacturer of frozen food products such as duck meat and seafood, plans to launch its prospectus in the first week of December and get listed on Bursa Malaysia before the end of the year.
It had first announced plans to list in January this year but had found it challenging to secure investors then.

Market conditions and the sentiments on China companies were working against us then.
But the investors have come to know us better since then; after site visits, and our financial numbers this year were further proof that our business is sustainable, said Shen Hengbao, chief executive and co-founder of the company.
Shen, however, declined to disclose the names of the investors but added that they comprised 12 parties, made up of institutions and high net worth individuals.
Sozo's IPO involves the issuance of 74.1 million shares (of which 55 million are new shares and the balance 19.1 million are an offer for sale of existing shares).
A total 50 million of the 74.1 million shares are being placed out while the remainder 24.1 million will be offered to the public.
Shen could not reveal the IPO price of Sozo shares in accordance with listing rules.
However, bankers familiar with the exercise said the Sozo IPO was being priced around 5 times its earnings for the year ended Dec 31 (FY09).
Sozo reported a net profit of 150 million yuan (RM70mil) for FY09. Its net profit for the first six months ended June 30 amounted to 93 million yuan (RM43.4mil).
This has been a comforting fact to our investors, that we are doing better than the year before and yet our IPO price is based on a low multiple of our FY09 earnings, Shen said.
The shares allocated for the public have been underwritten by AmInvestment Bank and JF Apex Securities.
Sozo will be the sixth China-based company to list on Bursa Malaysia.
Earlier this month, shares in China Ouhua Winery Holdings Ltd, which produces and distributes red and white wine, were offered at 60 sen a share, which was priced at a historical price earnings of seven times earnings. Its shares are trading above its IPO price. The other China listed stocks are mostly trading below their IPO prices.
There had been a concern that institutional investors were reluctant to take up shares in Chinese companies and were sceptical of their earnings following accounting irregularities involving several China-based companies listed in Singapore.
In Sozo's case, some investors may take comfort in the fact that Khazanah Nasional Bhd was a pre-IPO investor. Khazanah, which bought convertible papers issued by Sozo, is said to have converted them into shares.
According to Sozo, Agro Treasures an outsourced fund initiated by Khazanah and managed by Vida Inc Sdn Bhd for investment in the agricultural and food sector will have about 10.4% in Sozo post the latter's listing, as a result of the conversion of its debt papers into Sozo shares. Khazanah is not selling any Sozo shares in the IPO.
Shen said part of the reason for Sozo's listing in Malaysia was because Sozo had plans to make Malaysia the location of Sozo's halal food processing facility to target the huge global halal food market.
Shen added that Sozo was in a net cash position of 383 million yuan (RM180mil) as at June 30, 2010.

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Rumours or News- OSK, Maybank, Buying KFC, US big Fund, SP Setia News, Sime Darby share

I consider the OSK rumours or news open, KFC temporary close, and SP Setia open.

OSK share news- Maybank buying OSK?Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) is rumoured to be keen on acquiring OSK Holdings Bhd
The Edge Financial Daily 10 November 2010


KFC share news- US big Fund buying KFC?
A large US private equity fund was looking to buy out the company?
The Star 12 November 2010

JCorp-owned Kulim (M) Bhd rejected an offer by US private equity firm Carlyle Group to buy its stake in QSR at RM6.70 a share, which may also involve General Offer for KFC. They also rejected  KUB Malaysia Bhd-in collaboration with Idaman Saga Sdn Bhd and CVC Capital Partners Asia III Ltd .
Business Times: November 2010


The Edge weekly stated that Sime Darby Property (a unit under Sime Darby) will be merged with SP Setia.
RHB said both having common major shareholder –PNB,
Source: The Edge Weekly and RHB.

For previous rumours or news, please click my label below.

Monday, December 6, 2010

KSL Buy? Buy KSL fair value is RM2.43 ?

Now market talk is buy KSL. They said RM2.60 within 3 months and RM3.00 within 6 month.
For info, KSL fair value is RM2.43, according to Hong Leong latest 25 November 2010 KSL research report.

For more info on KSL, please refer my earlier article on KSL.

Commentary on Prospects by KSL Quarterly Report:
The Board of Directors expects encouraging prospects in the sale of landed residential properties in Johor in view of the Group's land bank of approximately 1,100 acres which are strategically located in Johor Bahru and its niche market and strong brand name in the Johor property scene. The Board of Directors is OPTIMISTIC that this will contribute positively to the Group's results for the current financial year.

In addition, the Group's Klang Valley Project is expected to come on stream by the year 2011. As at 30 September 2010, the Group has approximately 2,300 acres of land bank for development strategically located in the District of Klang, Johor Bahru, Batu Pahat, Kluang, Segamat, Muar and Mersing that will help the Group to sustain its medium to long-term development and profitability.

Why Margin portfolio full of lousy counters?

We were having dinner, and we realized that those who have share margin financing facility accounts, most of the counters inside are lousy counters. I am not the one who said the counters are lousy, everyone agreed on that. So they asked me why.

POLITEMARKET's COMMENTS:
Many people use percentage strategy, which is wrong. They buy a counter and if up 10% - 15%, then they sell. So if didn't go up, they keep. After some times, the portfolio will be full of nonperforming counter.
These counters then get suspended, some not moving, some get delisted.

Share margin limit is based on portfolio collateral value. The outstanding owing is still the same but the collateral value keep dropping, so very soon will have no more limit. So client is unable to buy further. Then nothing can be done. So the margin account will still have outstanding owing, and full of lousy counters.


I would like to suggest, do NOT sell shares based on percentage profit that you make. Should be based on fundamental of the company. Cut loss if the counter is not good anymore.

Careplus Fair Value FV RM0.29

Careplus FV is RM0.29 by TA Securities
Careplus Target Price Fair Value RM0.22 by RHB


Maybank has no Careplus TP or Careplus FV
But they make a comment......Fairly valued. At RM0.23 IPO price, Careplus is valued at historical PER of 7.8x. Annualising its 1HFY11 EPS, the stock is fairly valued – it will trade at 8.5x FY11 PER vs. small-cap peer Latexx Partner‟s 6x. We do not think Careplus should trade on similar valuations as big-cap Supermax/Kossan‟s 8.5x. The company is also an unlikely takeover target as it will be much cheaper for an acquirer to build new production lines from scratch than pay for Careplus‟ PER valuation.



Date of listing : 06/12/2010
Units : 210,000,000
Currency : MYR 21,000,000.000
Par Value ($) : MYR 0.100
Stock code : 0163
Stock name : CAREPLS
ISIN code : MYQ0163OO004
Board  : ACE Market
Sector : INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
Any listing of child stock / new type of securities in conjunction with the IPO?  : No



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KSL Target Price Fair Value RM2.43 - BUY KSL Share Market Talk

A: They said buy KSL. Buy KSL RM1.63
B: I heard that too.
A: What is KSL PE ratio?
B: KSL PE ratio is about less than 10x.
A: KSL growth?
B: Don't know. I don't have any KSL research report. But they said have strong growth.
A: KSL gearing?
B: Minimal.
A: KSL Yield (dividend)?
B: About 3%. Indirectly you were asking PEGGY figure right?
A: Yeah, KSL PE ratio, growth, KSL gearing, and KSL dividend yield. Can buy?
B: Can, as long as the growth is strong.
A: OK. Any KSL target price fair value?
B: RM2.43, according to Hong Leong latest 25 November 2010 repoer
A: What is KSL RNAV?
B: What is RNAV?
A: Revalued Net Asset Value or Realisable Net Asset Value
B: KSL Revalued Net Asset Value is RM4.35.
A: OK, hope you don't bring me to Holland.

Friday, December 3, 2010

Careplus Target Price Fair Value RM0.22

Careplus IPO issued price is RM0.23 and the Careplus IPO tentative listing date is 6 December 2010.
Careplus IPO Target Price Fair Value is just RM0.22 which is lower than Careplus IPO issued price.
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Let us do my PEGGY Method Test:
PE: PE ratio
G: Growth
G: Gearing
Y: Yield (dividend)

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Careplus PE ratio is 7.9x Jan 2010 which is ok. But Careplus growth is negative 13.5% till January 2011, positive 24.1% 2011 and 8.2% 2012. That means after January 2011, for the next 2 years will have growth of more than 10%. Careplus PE ratio will then drop to 6.7x in January 2013.
No gearing which is good. However, Careplus does not have any dividend policy, so RHB said assume no dividend.
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The above figure and Careplus Target Price fair value is by RHB.
According to RHB, Careplus fair value of RM0.22 is applying a target FY01/12 PER of 7x. at a 20% discount to the current CY11 industry average PER of 8.6x. They used a discount to the industry average in valuing Careplus mainly to reflect its significantly smaller size, in terms of market capitalisation, revenue base and capacity.
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POLITEMARKET's COMMENT:
1)Glove
2)Careplus oversubscribed
3)Guessing
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When we talk about glove industry, most analysts now have different forecast about glove. The above figure seems ok, low PE ratio, with growth and no gearing. But the setback is no dividend. However, all figures are provided by RHB, other analysts probably have different figures.
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According to friends, the Careplus IPO oversubscription rate (public) of 84.67 times is the highest and most difficult to strike in terms of recent IPO. That probably mean Careplus IPO target or projected listing price will be higher than RM0.23, which is higher than RHB careplus fair value of RM0.22. But this is theory.
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My view is, base on guessing, I think Careplus IPO will list above RM0.23. Of course if the market condition is the same.
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Papa Why You Sell Shares?

18 year-old Girl: Papa, why today wake up so early?

IMPORTANT NOTICE:
This article is meant for long term investor reading. Short term trader or punter will find it very offensive. If you think this article is offensive, please stop reading.



18 year-old Girl:        Papa, why today wake up so early?
Father:                      Calling my broker to sell shares.

Girl:        Why sell?
Father:    Because economy not so good. US and Euro not stable. China may slow down.

Girl: Then why uncle Peter didn't sell his restaurant during 1997 and 2008 crisis?
Girl: Also why many businessman and rich man didn't sell their company?
Father: Because the restaurant still making profit during crisis, although lesser. Same as businessman.

Girl: Then why you sell?
Father: I think the price will come down.

Girl: If the price will come down, then why don't you sell all and short the market through trading in Futures?
Father: I cannot confirm the market will 100% down. Many times I thought it will goes down, but it didn't.

Girl: Then why you sell? Papa, I think you should not do trading. If you sell, you are making TWO guesses. ONE is you guess after you have sold, the price will then drop from your selling price. SECOND is you guess that when you buy back, you are buying at low price and the price will recover.
Girl: Why don't you be like uncle Peter. As long as the company keep making profit and pay you dividend, then keep it. Sell when the company is not making profit or you found a better counter. Or the price is really too high.
Father: I think you are right. We should not guess the market. We must just invest and treat it as a business.

Girl: Want to go uncle Peter's restaurant to eat Ayam Penyet today?
Father: Good idea.

Thursday, December 2, 2010

Sozo IPO

Sozo Global Limited IPO.
Sozo IPO opening date is 1 December 2010.
Sozo Global IPO closing date is 9 December 2010.
Sozo Global IPO issue price is RM0.80.
Public issue 55,380,000 shares.
Offer for sale is 19,115,000 shares.
Private Placement 50 million shares.
Sozo IPO Issuing House Account Number is MIH 500.
Main Market.
Tentative listing date of Sozo IPO is 17 December 2010

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Source: The Star
The planned Malaysian listing of China-based Sozo Global Ltd is likely to get more investor attention following reports that a similar company is going to list in Singapore on a price earnings multiple of more than 10 times its 2009 earnings.
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China Minzhong, a vegetable processor based in the Fujian province, said on April 7 that its initial public offering (IPO) on the Singapore Exchange will be priced at S$1.20 (RM2.75) apiece. The exercise will raise a total of S$237mil (RM542mil) from the sale of new and vendor shares.
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Sozo Global, like a handful of other Chinese companies seeking to list here, has been hard-pressed to convince institutional investors to take up IPO placements at the price Sozo's promoters want.
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This has been due to the negative perception of China-based companies, stemming from past scandals surrounding "S-Chips", the name given to the more than 150 Chinese companies listed on the Singapore Exchange.
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Canned food product manufactured by Sozo Global Ltd
It was said that Singapore bankers had become disinterested in China IPOs since the middle of last year, offering to take on listings only if the issuer did not mind pricing the IPO low, at earnings multiples of around 3 times.
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That, in turn, was part of the reason why some China companies opted to try a listing in Malaysia. But these companies have also not had much success here, especially in terms of convincing the institutional funds to invest in them.
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Hence the recent listing of China Minzhong is a welcome surprise to issuers and their advisors. It could work as a comfort level to potential investors in Sozo and possibly other China IPOs here, points out an investment banker.
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Minzhong and Sozo have a few similarities. They are both in the food processing business in China and both have sovereign wealth funds invested in them.
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Government of Singapore Investment Corp (GIC) holds a 31.2% stake in Minzhong, which will be diluted to below 20% post IPO.
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Khazanah, via its outsource fund Agro Treasures, owns a 11.83% stake in Sozo, which will be diluted to 9.2% post the IPO.
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It is understood that Sozo is looking at listing here at a PE multiple of around 7 times.
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The three Chinese-based shoe makers listed on Bursa Malaysia continue to trade below their IPO prices and at earnings multiple of below 3 times their historical earnings.
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"Certainly it (the listing of Minzhong in Singapore) will in some way influence domestic funds to be more open to buying into Sozo. But don't expect PEs (price earnings multiples) to be as high as Minzhong," said an investment banker.
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Indeed, a Singapore-based private equity manager said that the IPO market for China there still "isn't great" and it was unusual for a China-based company there to get to list at a PE valuation of beyond 5 times historical earnings.
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Meanwhile, Sozo officials and their investment bankers continue with the uphill task of convincing institutions such as the Employees Provident Fund to take up a block of the more than 135 million shares to be issued in its IPO.
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Aside from the good news about Minzhong's listing across the causeway, another comforting fact in Sozo's listing is that almost all its existing shareholders are under a six-month moratorium that prohibits them from selling their shares after the listing.
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This is an extension from the common practice where only the promoters of the company would be under such a moratorium and should help prevent a similar situation that befell Multi Sports Holdings Ltd, one of the Chinese shoe makers listed here.
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Tan Sri Quek Leng Chan's GuoLine Group Management Co Ltd had significantly sold down its holdings in the Chinese company soon after its IPO. GuoLine was a pre-IPO investor in Multi Sports.
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It is left to be seen if this expanded moratorium will be sufficient to get institutional funds to buy into Sozo's IPO at the price its promoters want.
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Source: Business Times
SHANDONG-based Sozo Global Ltd, which makes ready-to-serve (RTS) meals, expects to raise RM44.3 million from its listing on Bursa Malaysia.
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Since its inception in 2005, Sozo makes RTS food, frozen vegetables and canned foods such as fruits and seafood.
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It also produces vacuum fried food and asparagus tea.
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Sozo's products are currently marketed under brands such as Geleifu (Green Food), Hengbao Food and The Four Seasons Farm.
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Its RTS food are mainly exported to Japan and in China, Sozo's products are sold to supermarkets and restaurants in Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen.
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The company currently has two food processing centres in Ju County, Rizhao City in Shandong province, with a combined production capacity of 38,880 tonnes per annum.
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"We look forward to the successful listing of Sozo in Malaysia and a year from now, a secondary listing in Hong Kong. We hope to raise more than RM40 million from the IPO (initial public offering) here," said chief executive officer Shen Hengbao. Take a quiz & stand a chance to win Transitions lenses!
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He was speaking to reporters after the company's prospectus launch in Kuala Lumpur yesterday.
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Shen said the group will use RM25 million or 54 per cent of the IPO proceeds to set up its own modern poultry farm, breeding and processing facilities in Shandong. This way, Sozo is assured of steady supply and high quality ducks.
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"We also plan to commission a third production plant to expand our capacity with the proceeds," he said.
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Sozo's IPO involves an issuance of 55.4 million new shares at 80 sen each. Of that, 24.5 million units are for Malaysian investors and 30.9 million to be privately placed. Another 19.1 million shares are for sale in the open market.
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JF Apex Securities Bhd is a joint underwriter in the IPO, while AmInvestment Bank Bhd is the adviser, managing underwriter and sole placement agent.
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Post-IPO, Khazanah Nasional Bhd via its outsource fund Agro Treasures will hold a 10.4 per cent stake in Sozo.
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Agro Treasures only invests in agriculture and food sectors.

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Keck Seng ?

The market value of Keck Seng’s net asset per share is worth more than RM17.00.
Keck Seng share price is RM6.33.
Question is when will Keck Seng revalue their land? When will Keck Seng sell the asset and distribute cash to the shareholders.
Most shareholders are just waiting and waiting.
Recently sold off Parkway with about RM1.00 cash but didn’t distribute to Keck Seng shareholders.
Just announced bonus issue of 1 for every 2 shares. What is the use of bonus issue?
You want cash or you want bonus issue?

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Imaspro 53% Discount - Imaspro Target Price Fair Value RM1.02

Imaspro analysis Research Report.
Imaspro Target Price Fair Value RM1.02.
PEGGY Method Blog stock share news Imaspro Corporation Bhd (7222)
Imaspro share price RM0.86

Let us do my PEGGY method test:
PE: P/E ratio
G:  Growth
G:  Gearing
Y:  Yield (Dividend)

POLITEMARKET'S COMMENT:
PE ratio 8.3x Ok, with next 12 months profit growth rate of 20.4%.
No further forecast is available.
Net cash and no gearing. Ok.
Dividend yield- Net 4% ok.
Figure got from CIMB and Bursa.
Imaspro fair value is RM1.02 by CIMB


I am not going to comment on the stock whether based on PEGGY, it is cheap or not.
This is because I just want to comment on the CASH.

According to CIMB, the cash is RM37 million or RM0.46 per share.
That is more than 53% of the share price.
If Imaspro pay RM0.46 dividend, then our cost will be ONLY RM0.40.
Minus out the FD interest the company earn, the PE ratio will drop to 4.4x.
The dividend yield will almost double to 8% every year.
But that is just a dream !! !!

To be realistic, with so much cash, they will have no problem paying consistent or higher dividend. They also have no problem for business expansion or buying other company to bring in more profit.

For info, Impaspro is paying First and Final Single Tier Dividend of 3.5 sen per share ex-date on 7 January 2011.


Will Imaspro be like TSM? TSM price was RM2.00, net cash >RM2.00.
Few months later, it is more than RM3.00


Actually I am not familiar with Imaspro. Not much info can offer.
IMASPRO CORPORATION BERHAD.
Manufacturing and distributing of pesticides and related agrochemicals are the Group's main activities.

Up to individual to make decision.

Disclaimer

Disclaimer Clause
The information contained in this blog is my personal diary and has been prepared solely for myself. Without any previous reading material or discussion, by just reading my blog contents, reader may misunderstand the contents.
All the contents I am talking to myself and most contents are hypothetical or imaginary.
This blog has been compiled in good faith, with no intention to cause hurt, loss, or any trouble. No representation is (either express or implied) as to the completeness or accuracy of the information it contains.
This blog also is not an advice, recommendation or an invitation to buy or sell or invest in anything, eg shares, futures, derivatives, gold, etc. Consult your investment adviser before making any decisions.
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