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Tuesday, February 28, 2012

My Blog in Facebook

I have recently created a Facebook page for my blog contents. I don't know much about IT stuff, but it looks quite ok, I think. Just trying out for fun. From now onwards, will try to update Facebook for every of my new post.

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Monday, February 27, 2012

Genting Singapore Target Price Fair Value

Genting Singapore just announced the quarterly result. It was mostly within analysts' estimations.

Based on Genting Singapore share price is S$1.66.

Genting Singapore PE ratio 20x
Growth for year 2012 and 2013 will be moderately high and then slow down
No net gearing.
Genting Singapore dividend yield is very low, less than 1%. They have just announced their first dividend, that is only S$0.01.

Genting Singapore target price and fair value by few research houses:
OCBC S$2.02 Buy
RHB S$1.80 Market Perform
CIMB S$1.85 Buy
OSK $1.84 Neutral

Slightly more than a year ago, many said Genting Singapore share price was heading to S$10.00. I guess it may not happen in the near future.

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Saturday, February 25, 2012

Why I Should Be Very Good in Technical Analysis

Recently someone reminded me of something. You know why I should be very good in technical analysis? Someone reminded me that I have worked in a company that sell Technical Analysis software. During that time I need to study the software, I have so many experts in my company, I followed the experts around and listen to them giving seminar on how to interpret the market. That is why I should be very good in Technical Analysis right?

But the reality is I am not good at it. Technical Analysis have too many "if". Give me more time, I hope I can learned it.

Anyway, I just worked in that company for very short period of time. Then I quit my job and furthered my studies. What did I study? I studied something that is not related to my work, and I think many people are the same.

Freight Management Stock Analysis Bonus issue and Free Warrants

In January 2012, Freight Management has ex for Bonus 1 for 3, and free bonus 1 for 5. You will notice Freight Management share price is lower now due to the Bonus issue and free bonus.

It has been a very long time I didn't really post on stock information. It just took too much of my time. I try to simplify it so that I can post more often.

Freight Management has just announced the quarterly result. Result are mostly within most analysts expectations.

Using Freight Management share price of RM0.92
Freight Management PE Ratio 7x to 8x (Jun 2012)
Growth for next two years is moderate.
Very minimal gearing and soon will be net cash.
Freight Management dividend yield is 4.5%

I'm using fully diluted earnings to get the PE ratio.

Based on the above, I think Freight Management stock still deserve a Hold. I understand that their performance recently is not that good, but look at the followings:

1) Giving us some reasonable dividend and PE ratio is not that high
2) Strong management team that achieved increse in profit for 7 or 8 consecutive years.
3) I'm quite confident on their 3PL business growth, which can at least cushion some drop (if any) in other business

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6 Thinking Hats to improve on Stock Market Profit


Wednesday, February 15, 2012

52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market - Part 34/52 - Follow Popular Bursa Malaysia Stock Market Blogs

Follow Popular Bursa Malaysia Stock Market Blogs
Some of the famous Malaysia stock market blogs, immediate after they have posted and recommended a stock, there will be an immediate buying interest in the stock and the share price will go up.

Let us have a scenario.
Stock A is $3.00. Immediately after a popular Bursa Malaysia stock market blog posted recommendation on Stock A, and then you buy at $3.00.

After few hours when more and more people read his article and buy it, it went up to $3.30 and you then sell it to make a profit.

You need to buy it immediately after he posted the article. But how to know when he will post? It will take many hard works to monitor the blog. I’m not sure whether there will be any alert whenever a blog has posted a new article. If you are late, then the share price already went up.

Although some Malaysia stock market blogs are quite influential, but if they recommend too many counters, they may lose the effect. This is what I have noticed. After a few counters that really went up, suddenly there are many more counters, and the counters did not move up.

I have friends, they are retired husband and wife. They actually follow, but after awhile they gave up. Because too time consuming and most of the times they were slightly late. Furthermore, the counters recommended by the blog suddenly increase and these stocks prices didn’t go up.

Some people said these blogger bought first, then recommend in his blog so that he can sell to you. Refer to my article here for argument. Bursa Malaysia Stock Market Blogs

You may want to do paper trading before real trading, whether it will work. But please take note of the timing, very important.

Argument on Bursa Malaysia blogs
Bursa Malaysia Stock Market Blogs

For more info on 52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market.

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Thursday, February 9, 2012

China Stationery Limited IPO and Sentoria Group Berhad IPO Target Price Fair Value

China Stationery Limit IPO is a China company or China stock, I think with the name, many will know what kind of business they are in. Some of the products are plastic filling and storage product, and plastic tape printer.

CSL IPO price is RM0.95 and let us look at some of the figures (from TA Securities):
China Stationery PE ratio is 5.3x and the earnings are projected to grow that 14% in year 2012.
Gearing is low at 0.1x and China Stationery dividend yield is 3.8%. They have a dividend policy or dividend payout ratio of 20%.

This is a new company, and therefore, hard for analysts to really accurately forecast the future earnings. China stocks are not so popular in Malaysia as evidenced in the few China stocks that are currently listed in Malaysia. TA Securities gave China Stationery target price fair value at RM1.23 with 29.5% upside from the IPO price. CSL target price fair value is based on 6x PE ratio of 2012, and 25% discount from the industry's average PE ratio.


Sentoria Group Berhad IPO is in property development and also leisure and hospitality. Sentoria Group Berhad IPO price is RM0.85 and let us look at some of the figures (by TA Securities):

Sentoria PE ratio is 7.4x (sep 2011) and the earnings are to grow at 11.3% (sep 2012) and 16.9% (sep 2013). Sentoria dividend yield is about 3% with no net gearing (net cash).

TA gives Sentoria target price fair value also at RM0.80, valuing Sentoria at 6x PE ratio for 2012. This is a discounted 0.4x multiple of the average small cap PE ratio because of Sentoria market capitalisation of less than RM400 million, rising competition in the theme park industry and unclear earnings visibility.

For more information on recent IPO, here.

Articles that you may be interested:

IPO is very Good for Bursa Malaysia Share Market

IPO is very Bad For Bursa Malaysia Share Market

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Monday, February 6, 2012

6 Thinking Hats to improve on Stock Market Profit

Recently I went to a gathering in Pahang and someone share with us on "6 thinking hats" in decision making process. Let me explain what is 6 Thinking Hats, then I relate it to Stock Market.
The 'Six Thinking Hats' is a technique in decision making. It forces you to move outside your habitual thinking style, and helps you to get a more rounded view of a situation. It was created by Edward de Bono in his book '6 Thinking Hats'.

In order to make effective decision, we need all the 6 thinking hats. One person can wear or perform all 6 thinking hats roles, but very tough. Generally different people will have different ideas or strength or attitude, and therefore, it is better to have few persons to perform the 6 thinking hats role.

Each 'Thinking Hat' is a different style of thinking. These are explained below:

White Hat:
With this thinking hat you will focus on the data available. Look at the information you have, and see what you can learn from it. Look for gaps in your knowledge, and either try to fill them or take account of them. This is where you analyze past trends, and try to extrapolate from historical data.

In stock market, this means you need to focus on the stock market data before making a decision.

Red Hat:
'Wearing' the red hat, you look at problems using intuition, gut reaction, and emotion. Also try to think how other people will react emotionally. Try to understand the responses of people who do not fully know your reasoning.

In stock market, it is very unpredictable. So, sometimes you need some gut feeling to make the decision.

Black Hat:
Using black hat thinking, look at all the bad points of the decision. Look at it cautiously and defensively. Try to see why it might not work. This is important because it highlights the weak points in a plan. It allows you to eliminate them, alter them, or prepare contingency plans to counter them.

In Stock Market, Black Hat role is very important. When during bull or good market, we tends to be very positive and ignore all the risk. We need the Black Hat to challenge all our stock buying or holding decision.

Yellow Hat:
The yellow hat helps you to think positively. It is the optimistic viewpoint that helps you to see all the benefits of the decision and the value in it. Yellow Hat thinking helps you to keep going when everything looks gloomy and difficult.

In Stock Market, yellow hat is very important in bear or bad market. This is the time where everybody is so pessimistic that many refuse to buy stock. But this is also the time that the stocks are very cheap and can make a lot of money when the market recover.

Green Hat:
The Green Hat stands for creativity. This is where you can develop creative solutions to a problem. It is a freewheeling way of thinking, in which there is little criticism of ideas. A whole range of creativity tools can help you here.

In stock market, we need some creativity too. It can be how we source for more money. Get idea to get more research, how to get lower brokerage, or how to analyse data in a shorter time, use chart or technical analysis, etc.

Blue Hat:
The Blue Hat stands for process control. This is the hat worn by people chairing meetings. When running into difficulties because ideas are running dry, they may direct activity into Green Hat thinking. When contingency plans are needed, they will ask for Black Hat thinking, etc.

In stock market, blue hat role is also important. Due to different idea by different hats, blue hat need to moderate all the decision making process. Let the process keep going rather than stop when there is conflict of ideas.

It is very tough that one person can wear all the hats. I suggest we find few persons. Some people have a lot of data, let him/her wear white hat. Some are very pessimistic, then let him/her wear black hat, etc.

When we have all the 6 hats, we have a more complete views/ideas in the decision making process. I quote you one example.

In late 2009 the market rebounded after the crash in 2008, I have a friend who is very pessimistic (wearing black hat). He kept telling me about conspiracy theory, double recession, shown me negative web sites and all sort of bad things. Saying the market will crash further.

Then I met another friend (wearing yellow hat), he is positive and asked me to buy and keep. He said market is a cycle. Buy at that level and will make money. If drop lower, buy more.

The yellow hat friend gave me confident and I have some gut feeling that it is time to enter (I was wearing red hat). In order to decide what stock to buy, I do some research (I was wearing white hat), and buy stocks which are cheap.

After trading for few months, I noticed that the profit that I have made is not much. I want to make more. I think I can improve on my investment. Therefore, I have come out with PEGGY Method and using Dollar Cost Averaging (I was wearing green hat).

As you can see, I was the person that was looking for data, talked to different people, persist to continue, etc, I was also wearing blue hat.

If we can have 6 thinking hats, we can make better decision. Hope this article can help you in your stock market investment.

By the way, in the gathering, I met a friend, I just couldn’t understand why whenever she talks to me, she will be wearing the black hat. She will just interpret negatively in whatever thing I said or do. I find it very hard to deal with her and I am very tired. Actually I can just avoid her, but I do treasure our friendship. Hope she can change her hat. For the record, she is very cute.

6 thinking hats- mindtools dot com

For more information on stock market, here.


Thursday, February 2, 2012

Stocks for 2012

For year 2012 in Bursa Malaysia stock market, I will be holding or adding TSH stock.
Fitters, maybe. Because of the uncertainty.

For other stocks, I will make a decision after they have announced the quarterly result. Situation will become clearer.

I'm actually lack of research reports. If anyone of you got any good stocks, please share with me. Stocks that are with low PE ratio and high growth. I really appreciate that.

Please click here for most recent Malaysia IPO, I will update on the IPO whenever I got info.




Disclaimer Clause
The information contained in this blog is my personal diary and has been prepared solely for myself. Without any previous reading material or discussion, by just reading my blog contents, reader may misunderstand the contents.
All the contents I am talking to myself and most contents are hypothetical or imaginary.
This blog has been compiled in good faith, with no intention to cause hurt, loss, or any trouble. No representation is (either express or implied) as to the completeness or accuracy of the information it contains.
This blog also is not an advice, recommendation or an invitation to buy or sell or invest in anything, eg shares, futures, derivatives, gold, etc. Consult your investment adviser before making any decisions.
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