Please Click LIKE to like my blog. Thanks for support

Friday, August 31, 2012

I made a few transactions and portfolio adjustment

Bought and sold some shares recently.

Sold some of Bonia shares at RM2.6X.
Profit Gross 160% after more two years (excluding dividend)
Reasons: Due to the take-over rumours and actual annoucement, the stock went up.
But past quarters result not up to my expectation due to losses in their investment.
Actually I wanted to wait after Bonia quarterly result out on 30/08/2012, but I afraid the Bonia share price will start dropping after the recent price increase.


Sold some of my TSH shares as RM2.4X.
One batch Loss gross 4% within few months. But after dividend the loss is less.
One batch Gain gross 14% within few months.
One batch Gain gross 32% within few months.
Reason of selling, past few quarters result not up to my expectation, CPO price not so good and after the share price has risen so much, TSH stock % in my portfolio is quite high, so have to reduce some.
Next few months may not be good, but next year may see some growth in production.
Still have to depend on CPO price.


Bought (add) some Freight Management at RM0.9X
Recent Freight Quarterly Result ok. A bit disappointed with their dividend.
Freight stock still low PE ratio, some growth potential, dividend not too bad, and good management.


Bought (add) a bit of QL stock at RM3.2X
Recent financial result ok. Some QL research analysis brokers said hold, some said buy.
Thier regional growth may start contributing 2013. But afraid the price later start moving up, so buy a bit first.
This stock cannot really buy much, PE high and dividend low. But the potential growth is there, very good management with profit increasing every year for the past many years, and I'm also familiar with this stock.

 
Bought (add) SKPRES stock at RM0.3X
Recent result ok, low PE ratio and good dividend, and high cash level of RM0.07 per SKPRES share.
Not too familar with this stock, hopefully SKP Resources analyst research report is accurate.


Bought ESC stock at RM1.5X.
This is a "Pet Stock". Buying not really for profit.
Got time I will post and explain why.
But you can go here to understand what is "Pet Stock".
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/2012/08/how-to-use-growth-share-matrix-to.html


Past few days quite active, make me feel like I'm doing window dressing, LOL.

 

For more infomation of previous transactions:
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/Transactions

 
 
 
To know more on what is Pet Stock, here
 
 
 

For more information on Astro IPO, here


For more information on other recent IPO, here
Please click facebook "LIKE" in my blog if you like my blog.

If you are using mobile, please click/change to web base in order to see my facebook "LIKE" and Google Friend Connect.

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

IGB REIT IPO

Based on the IGB REIT IPO price of RM1.25, IGB REIT target price is RM1.43, this is 14% upside from the IPO price. However, please note that the IPO price is not fixed yet, it will be fixed later after the so called bookbuilding.
 
The Final Retail Price Will Be Equal To The Lower Of: (i) The Retail Price Of RM1.25 Per Offer Units and (ii) The Institutional Price.
 
Therefore, the potential upside to IGB REIT fair value can be higher than 14%.
 
According to RHB, IBG REIT dividend yield is about 4.6%. They value IGB REIT at RM1.43, with a cost of equity assumption of 7% on their DDM valuations. Their DPU forecasts of 6.4 sen and 6.8 sen for FY12-13 translate to a net yield of almost 5% based on the issue price of RM1.25. The fair value of RM1.43 implies a P/NAV of 1.43x, in line with the top five sector peers given that IGB is the second largest REIT upon listing.
 
IGBREIT IPO has two assets, the Mid Valley Megamall and The Gardens Mall worth RM4.6 billion, the largest pure retail REIT thus far, ahead of Pavilion REIT and Sunway REIT.
 
IGB REIT gearing is about 26%, slightly below the average gearing of the REIT sector. There is potential of borrow more and injecting more assets.
 
Guess who is IGB REIT major shareholder. You are right, from IGB REIT propesctus, it shows that the major shareholder is IGB, who else.
 


For more information on IGB REIT target price and IPO information, here

http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/IGB%20REIT

 
For more information on Astro IPO, here



For more information on other recent IPO, here




Please click facebook "LIKE" in my blog if you like my blog.

If you are using mobile, please click/change to web base in order to see my facebook "LIKE" and Google Friend Connect.



Thanks

 

Monday, August 27, 2012

IGB REIT IPO

IGB REIT IPO price RM 1.25
Opening of application  27/08/2012
Closing of application 04/09/2012
Balloting of applications  07/09/2012
Allotment of IPO shares to successful applicants 20/09/2012
Tentative listing date  21/09/2012




==========
Initial Public Offering Of 670,000,000 New Units In IGB REIT ("Offer Units") Comprising An Offer For Sale Of:

 (I) 469,000,000 Offer Units Made Available For Application By Malaysian And Foreign Institutional Investor And Selected Investors, At The Institutional Price Being The Price Per Offer Unit To Be Paid By The Investors Which Will Be Determined By Way Of Bookbuilding ("Institutional Price"); And

 (ii) 201,000,000 Offer Units Made Available For Application By The Malaysian Public, The Eligible Directors And Employees Of The Manager, The Eligible Directors And Employees Of IGB Corporation Berhad ("IGB" Or "Sponsor") And Its Eligible Subsidiaries (Excluding The Manager But Including The Vendors (As Defined Herein) And The Eligible Shareholders Of The Sponsor, At The Retail Price Being The Initial Price Payable By Applicants ("Retail Price"),

Subject To The Clawback And Reallocation Provision In Connection With The Listing Of And Quotation For 3,400,000,000 New Units In IGB Reit ("Units") On The Main Market Of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad.

The Retail Price Is Payable In Full Upon Application And Subject To Refund Of The Difference, In The Event That The Final Retail Price Is Less Than The Retail Price. The Final Retail Price Will Be Equal To The Lower Of:

 (I) The Retail Price Of Rm1.25 Per Offer Units; And

 (Ii) The Institutional Price.


Source: Bursa Malaysia

The IGB REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST IPO stock name will be IGBREIT. Will post more once I get the IGB REIT research analysis and target price or fair value.


========== 

KUALA LUMPUR: IGB Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) is offering 670 million new units under its initial offer price (IPO) at an indicative retail price of RM1.25 a unit.

According to its prospectus which was released on Bursa Malaysia on Monday, at the indicative price of RM1.25, it would be raising RM837.50mil.


Of the 670 million shares, it said that 469 million units would be offered to Malaysian and foreign institutional investors and selected investors.

Another 201 million units would be offered to the public, eligible directors and employees of the group.

It would also be subject to the clawback and reallocation provision in connection with the listing and quotation for 3.4 billion new units on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia Securities.

Source: The Star 27/08/2012

 ============

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 7 – Malaysia’s IGB Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) will offer up to 670 million units in an initial public offering (IPO) that could fetch as much as RM838 million.

The flotation, expected to debut on Sept. 19, is the fourth largest initial public offer (IPO) in the Southeast Asian country this year after the planned listing of Astro All Asia Network Plc.

The IPO will provide the country’s largest REIT by asset value with more financial muscle to buy real estate in the future.

 The IPO comprises 469 million units for sale to institutional and selected investors and another 201 million units to eligible directors, employees and the public, according to the draft prospectus of the offer filed yesterday.

 The retail portion is priced at an indicative price of RM1.25 per share while the institutional price will be determined on Sept 4, after the bookbuilding ends. The bookbuilding process will start on Aug. 28, according to the prospectus.

Based on the retail price of RM1.25 per share, post-IPO IGB Reit would have a market capitalisation of RM4.25 billion, the largest in Malaysia ahead of Pavilion Real Estate Investment Trust.

IGB REIT, a unit of Malaysian property firm IGB Corp Bhd , has hired CIMB Investment Bank and Hong Leong Investment Bank as the joint principal advisers and joint managing underwriters for the IPO.

CIMB, Credit Suisse and Hong Leong are the joint global coordinators, while CIMB, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, DBS, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Hong Leong, HSBC, JP Morgan and Maybank are the joint book runners. Joint underwriters are AmInvestment, CIMB, Hong Leong and Maybank.

In addition to IGB REIT’s listing for the remaining part of the year, Malaysia’s second richest man Ananda Krishnan also plans to re-list his pay-TV firm Astro in a deal that could fetch as much as US$1.5 billion (RM4.65 billion). – Reuters


Source: Malaysia Insider (outdated news 7 August 2012 for info)

 =============


For information on IGB REIT target price.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/2012/08/igb-reit-ipo_29.html
 
For more information on Astro IPO, here
For more information on other recent IPO, here
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/IPO

 

For more information on other IGB REIT IPO, here

http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/IGB%20REIT

 

Please click facebook "LIKE" in my blog if you like my blog.

If you are using mobile, please click/change to web base in order to see my facebook "LIKE" and Google Friend Connect.



Thanks
 
 

Friday, August 24, 2012

Astro IPO

Astro is targeted to be listed end of September 2012.


Astro PE Ratio 30x (FY Jan 2012)


This is based on estimated total enlarged issued shares of 5.2 billion, profit of RM629.62million, Astro IPO price of RM3.60 and Astro earning per share EPS of RM0.121.


Growth: Financial year ending Jan 2013 probably may see some drop in profit due to huge listing expenses. Beyond that I will have to search for more information.


Gearing: No information yet.


Astro Dividend Yield is 2.5%, this is based on Astro dividend payout ratio of at least 75% (assuming at 75%).


The above analysis is using PEGGY Method ( PE, G, G, Y) PE Ratio, Growth, Gearing, Yield.
 

Based on the above information on EPS of RM0.121, if I apply a PE ratio of 20x, then Astro target price will be RM2.42. If based on 30x PE ratio then fair value will be RM3.63.
 

===========
 

IPO Offering up to 1.52 billion shares, about 29.2% of its enlarged issued and paid-up share capital.


24.2% or 1.26 billion shares or of the shares would be offered to both local and foreign institutional investors, including bumiputra investors.
 

5% or 260 million shares would be made available to retail investors.
 

Total 29.2%.
 

According to Reuters, the Based on the indicative price, the IPO would raise about RM5.47bil.
 

Malaysia's third largest initial public offering (IPO) this year, after Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (RM9.93bil raised in June) and IHH Healthcare Bhd (RM6.3bil raised in July).
 

Indicative Astro IPO price RM3.60 and also for MITI investors.


About 598 million shares, representing about 11.5% of Astro's enlarged issued and paid-up capital would be offered to bumiputra investors approved by the International Trade and Industry Ministry.
 

The joint principal advisers and joint managing underwriters for Astro's IPO are CIMB Investment Bank Bhd, Maybank Investment Bank Bhd and RHB Investment Bank Bhd.
 

Source: The Star


==============
 

Interesting Facts:


Astro  Privatisation in year 2010 the market capitalization was about RM8.3 billion based on privatization offer price of RM4.30.


Astro Net Asset Per share (commonly known as NTA although is wrong) was RM0.46 as at 31 January 2010.


Now year 2012 based on 5.2 billion shares at RM3.60, Astro Market Capitalization is a whopping RM18.72 billion, an increase of 125% over about two years !
 

My question is why Astro is worth 125% more after two years? I heard the previous Astro was with Foreign Business but the new Astro now is mainly with Malaysia business only, not sure true or not.


============

For Comparison:


IHH IPO Malaysia Offering 208.51 shares to Retail (161.14 million to Malaysian Public)
360 million to MITI


FGV
Retail Offering Of 273,611,000 (72,963,000 Issue Shares Made Available To The Malaysian Public)
419,537,000 Shares MITI

Astro IPO
260 million shares would be made available to retail investors.

======

I will post more once I have the information.

Astro Target price here.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/2012/09/astro-ipo-research-target-price-rm309.html


Why You Should NOT apply Astro IPO, here.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/2012/09/astro-ipo-why-you-should-not-apply.html


For more information on Astro IPO, here
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/Astro

 

For more information on other recent IPO, here
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/IPO

 
Please click facebook "LIKE" in my blog if you like my blog.

If you are using mobile, please click/change to web base in order to see my facebook "LIKE" and Google Friend Connect.



Thanks


 

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

iCapital stock interest article

Yesterday I posted on whether buying iCapital stock is better than buying unit trust. I made comparison on the two, for more info you can refer here. http://politemarket.blogspot.com/2012/08/is-buying-icap-stock-better-than-buying.html


The following is an article that I find interesting, from www.turtleinvestor888.blogspot.com


As of Aug 4, 2012, iCapital closed end fund was selling for RM 2.30 but NAV was RM 3.01, represents a discount of almost 24%. As of May 30, 2012, iCapital has net asset of RM 400 million and almost RM 133 millions are in cash. Investors may be sceptical that it can maintain its high elevated level.

The fund has never declare any dividend since it was launch in October 2005. In a few months time, the fund will be getting almost 7years. Using the market price around first week of October of every calendar since it was listed we all can see that all the capital gain was in the first 2 years and return was practically non existent since 2008.


There are some interesting developments since last year with emergence of two foreign funds. One of them is City of London Investment Management Company LTD with initial interest of 5.26% in November 2011 and increased their holding to almost 6.2% as of July 31, 2012. The other fund is Lexey Partners Limited with initial interest of 5.92%. They started buying some time April 2012.
 

What Lexey Partners did reminded me of a closed-end fund Amanah Millenia fund. That fund was forced to closed in 2007 after in existence of 10 years. Lexey Partners bought an initial interests of 5.05% with almost 29% discount to its NAV. After the initial interest, they kept buying until it reached 16.2% and forced it to close.


Amanah Millenia was way under-performing at that time in terms of NAV with 21.9% gains only over a period of 10 years while iCapital managed to improve its NAV over time of almost 3 times.

The question is will iCapital face a similar fate? Will this time be different with City of London Investment and Lexey Partners already accumulated combined interests of 12.7%.
 

Many of closed end funds in listed in NYSE actually paying dividend regularly. Many of closed end funds sweetened their investors with generous dividend to compensate for the discount to NAV.


Having foreign funds buying is a good news to current holders and certainly adding pressures to its fund manager. The mentality of foreign funds are very different from small holders will just wait patiently hoping something will happen. They will make things happen and it will be a big dent to TTB's pride if his fund get liquidated!


End


======


Articles on whether buying iCapital stock is better than buying unit trust, here. 
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/2012/08/is-buying-icap-stock-better-than-buying.html


More information on iCap, here.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/ICAP



Please click facebook "LIKE" in my blog if you like my blog.
If you are using mobile, please click/change to web base in order to see my facebook "LIKE" and Google Friend Connect.



Thanks




Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Is buying iCap stock better than buying unit trust?

Currently iCap stock is RM2.30 and ICAP net asset value per share is RM3.00. Let us look at the analysis below. I will not go into details whether who perform better, brokerage, charges, the fund objective, etc. I just analyse based on Net Asset Value.


Reason buying ICAP stock is better than unit trust:


1) ICAP net asset value is RM3.00. If you buy at current price of RM2.30, you are buying at massive 23% discount. If you buy unit trust, you will be paying at net asset value.

2) Assuming few years later, ICAP net asset value up 100% to RM6.00. Tell me what will be the ICAP share price? RM4.00? RM5.00? RM5.50? If your answer is more than RM4.60, then it is better to buy ICAP. Imagine if your answer is RM5.00, you bought at RM2.30 and now is RM5.00, you made 117% although ICAP is just up 100%. If you buy unit trust, the net asset value up 100%, you will make the same 100%. As per your answer, you make higher in ICAP, that is 117%.


Reason buying unit trust is better than ICAP stock:

1) Assuming the unit trust price is RM2.30 and you will be paying RM2.30. If after few years the net asset value up 100% to RM4.60, you will be able to sell at RM4.60. But if you buy ICAP stock, you just don’t know what price you can sell. Maybe RM4.00, maybe RM5.00, maybe RM3.80, etc.


Another scenario is after two months, your unit trust up 10% and you sell it and made 10%. But ICAP you just don’t know what is the price that you can sell.


ICAP share price although it tracks very closely to its net asset value, but there is always some fluctuation due to buyer and seller forces. That is why although ICAP net asset value is RM3.00, the share price is only RM2.30.

The above shows that there are advantages and disadvantages in buying ICAP stock as compared with unit trust.



Please take note that as I have mentioned above, this analysis is purely based on net asset value only. The analysis is for my own case study or understanding only, other factors are being excluded from the analysis and therefore the analysis is incomplete and full of flaws, although I still think that the analysis makes sense.
 

Later today or tomorrow I will post another article on ICAP.


For more information on ICAP, here.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/ICAP

Please click facebook "LIKE" in my blog if you like my blog.
If you are using mobile, please click/change to web base in order to see my facebook "LIKE" and Google Friend Connect.


Thanks


Sunday, August 19, 2012

Genting Singapore share price target fair value

After Genting Singapore latest quarterly financial result, let us look at some of the figures.

Based on share price of SGD 1.28 and some of the Genting Singapore research analysis paper.


Genting Singapore PE ratio is 15.2x (2011).


Growth: Some brokers forecast negative for 2012, positive for 2013 and 2014. 2014 profits will be just slightly higher than 2011.


Gearing. Already net cash.


Genting Singapore dividend yield. Some brokers forecast less than 1%, some less than 2%.


Based on the above figures, Genting Singapore PE ratio is not cheap, low dividend and lack of growth potential. That is why many brokers are having SELL recommendation on Genting Singapore shares. If you look at my previous blog post on Genting Singapore, you will notice someone said will hit USD10 soon. Now we can have a laugh.


However, some brokers still have Genting Singapore BUY recommendations. Anyway, the forecast for this stock was always not so accurate. It may exceed expectation. With net cash, there are many things they can do.


Some said the negative news already reflected in the drop in share price that is why now is BUY recommendation.


Let us look at what are the brokers’ recommendation:


AmResearch said BUY, with SGD1.54 target price

OCBC BUY, SGD 1.66
RHB SGD 1.20 SELL
Citigroup SGD 1.42 HOLD
Morgan Stanley SGD 1.05 SELL
OSK HOLD, with SGD1.20
CIMB SGD 1.60 BUY


Some said BUY, some said SELL, up to individuals to decide.


For more information on Genting Singapore, here.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/Genting%20Singapore


Please click facebook "LIKE" in my blog if you like my blog.
If you are using mobile, please click/change to web base in order to see my facebook "LIKE" and
Google Friend Connect.




Saturday, August 18, 2012

Still can Buy FITTERS stocks without research analysis?

Currently the only Fitters research information I have is this: According to HwangDBS, Fitters second quarter result was within expectation, lifted by robust sales at property project and uptick in fire-fighting business. Maintain BUY recommendation with Fitters stock target price of RM1.15 (45% upside from the current price of RM0.745).



I don’t have detailed Fitters research report, this is what I can do. Using Fitters share price of RM0.745 and PEGGY Method analysis.



Fitters PE ratio is 8.57x (2011).

If I based on 2012 first two quarters earnings per share of RM0.059 and annualized it to RM0.118 (not so accurate), then Fitters PE ratio for 2012 will be 6.3x only.



Growth? No details but based on their good property business, fire-fighting business and the green mills project that have started, I think they have growth potential.



Gearing not high and manageable.



Fitters dividend yield is low.


 

My Investment Diary on Fitters:

Bought Fitters RM0.6x about two years ago (now having unrealized gain based on current Fitters share price of RM0.745)

Early this year bought second round of Fitters at RM0.87 (having unrealized loss now).

Immediately after I bought, Fitters share price drop 5%, then 10%, then 15% within two weeks. Should I feel sad? Don’t know why it dropped.



Then dropped to RM0.70. 20% from my latest purchase price within two to three months only.



There were not much changes in Fitters fundamental and based on fundamental investment I should have bought more due to cheaper share price. But I didn’t because I don’t have Fitters research analysis to assist me in making decision.



I decided not to sell also because now is cheaper.



Now I will continue to keep Fitters stock based on the following:



1) Fitters PE ratio is low, single digit only.

2) I feel that there is growth potential

3) HwangDBS recommended buy with high upside target price





Reasons for not buying more:

1) Don’t have detailed Fitters analysis report, only know that HwangDBS recommended buy

2) Dividend is not high. In case failure, dividend not enough to compensate me

3) Fitters stock pric is very erratic, up a lot for few days with huge volume and then drop sharply. Maybe got people playing.

4) I already have two rounds of purchases.





I really hope Fitters can really achieve profit growth and I can make money from it. Many of my friends do not like Fitters, saying it is very speculative. I hope Fitters Managing Director will not disappoint me, saw in news he said Fitters currently is in growing phase.



For more information on Fitters stock, here.










Please click facebook "LIKE" in my blog if you like my blog.
If you are using mobile, please click/change to web base in order to see my facebook "LIKE" and Google Friend Connect.



Thursday, August 16, 2012

Why Sold Perisai Stock with small gain

Sold Perisai at share price of $0.9x with less than 2% gain within 2 weeks.


Reason of selling? I have mentioned in my post the reason of buying was for short-term trading only.


If I buy another stock, eg Ingens Stock, it does not mean that Ingens is better than Perisai. If I buy CIMB, it does not mean that CIMB is better than Perisai.


Can I say my husband is better than your husband? "For me", my husband is better than your husband, but does not mean that my husband is better than your husband. The words "for me" is important. My husband meet my objective, my situation and my feelings, so in my opinion my husband is better than your husband.


My wife is better than your wife, in my own preference only, not a general rule.


For stock is the same. We have our own interest, objective, feelings, preference.


My friend does not like Finance stocks, he likes plantation stocks and he has been making money. His wife prefer Finance stocks. Both of them also have been making money.


I bought Perisai because CIMB said accumulate aggressively before the result, expected to be good. Result is out already, that is why I sold.


I don't have feelings for Perisai, don't know why.


According to many brokers, Perisai is a good stock and recommended buy.
Perisai fair value $1.53 by CIMB (more than 60% upside)
By HwangDBS $1.20.
TA Securities $1.26.


Perisai PE ratio single digit, low and with growth potential, except that gearing high with no dividend projected.

All the best to those who hold Perisai stocks, there can be both win-win situation in stock market. You make money from Perisai stock and I made money from other stocks.


My recent transactions:


Sold Perisai $0.9x (gain <2% within two weeks).


Buy ICap RM2.3XXX

SKPRes stock buy RM0.36.

Perisai stock buy RM0.925


Pantech Buy RM0.625

Innoprise Buy RM1.83

Boilermech Buy RM0.78

P&O Buy RM0.915

Padini Buy RM1.72

TSH Buy RM2.15

Bstead Buy RM5.12

Huayang Buy RM1.57

TSH Buy RM2.57

Fitters Buy RM0.87

TSH Buy RM1.85



More information on my recent transaction, here.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/Transactions


More on Perisai stock here.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/Perisai


Please click facebook "LIKE" in my blog if you like my blog.
If you are using mobile, please click/change to web base in order to see my facebook "LIKE" and Google Friend Connect.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/



Thanks


Datasonic IPO Target Price

Datasonic PE Ratio 11.3x.

Total Growth forecast by some brokers for 2012 and 2013 from 30% to 80% for two years. Average about 15% to 40% a year.

Datasonic Dividend yield is not available because they don’t have a fixed dividend policy.

Datasonic stock name is DSonic stock.

According to TA Securities, Datasonic target price fair value is RM2.29 (Datasonic IPO price is RM2.00). They value Datasonic at 7x CY13 earnings, which is at 30% discount to their target PE of 10x for Iris given its smaller market size and less diversified business model, and arrive at a fair value of RM2.29 per Datasonic share.

Kenagana has assigned a Datasonic fair value at RM2.18, based on a FY12 PER of 9.0x (the average FBMKLCI Small Cap PER).

For more information on recent IPO, here.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/IPO

For more information on Datasonic IPO here. http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/Datasonic


Please click facebook "LIKE" if you like my blog.
If you are using mobile, please click/change to web base in order to see my facebook "LIKE" and Google Friend Connect.  
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/





Thanks

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Why Wrong But Still can Make from Zhulian Research

Let us do a simple PEGGY Method on Zhulian research based on Zhulian share price of $2.50.

Zhulian PE Ratio is estimated about 10x Nov 2012.

Growth no forecast available.

Gearing - net cash

Zhulian dividend yield is about 5.6% for 2012.

I bought Zhulian about two years ago $1.9X. After reported lower profit the price drop a bit I didnt sell because I just like many investors refuse to cut loss. The Zhulian share price then drop to $1.7x. I still keep it because the price has dropped and paying good dividend. I didn't average down although the profit has improved.

Then the price went back to $2.00. Results are good with good dividend yield. I didn't buy again. Now the price is $2.50.

Above you can see that from my first purchase until now, all my decisions were wrong. $1.9x bought it- wrong. Lower profit didn't sell- wrong. $1.70 didn't average down- wrong. $2.00 didn't buy again- wrong.

So many wrong decisions but at current price still having paper gain of more than 20% plus two years of dividend 5% to 6% per year. I'm curious why so many wrong decisions but still made, although not much, profit still reasonable. I try to think of the reason why. I have some ideas but need some time to analyse further. More information on Zhulian, here

http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/Zhulian




Sunday, August 12, 2012

52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market - Part 38/52 - Follow Smart Money

What is Smart Money? There are many definitions and terms. But refer to my own definition, just for the purpose of this article.
For the purpose of this article, Smart money is someone / a fund / an organization / a group of people, which we think they are smart and we think they are making a lot of money. They are influential and have strong impact on stock prices. They can be big or small.

If they are so good, then it makes sense that we follow them and make money.

Examples of Smart Money: the company director, major shareholders, foreign fund, well-known fund, government fund, stock manipulator or syndicate, big remisier, big clients, rich man, underlying stock company (share buyer back), top management, etc.

X Stock IPO. The stock is unheard of and we are not sure whether is good or not. If Khazanah or EPF holding 20%, or Public Mutual or Great Eastern Insurance holding 20%, then we think it is good counter, can buy or can subscribe or apply.

The director or Y company is buying Y shares recently. Then we make conclusion that something good is going to be announcement.
Not sure stock Z is good or not. But if many big local funds names are appearing in the list of Company Z largest shareholder, then we make conclusion that this stock is good.

If someone tell us that syndicate G is operating or manipulating Stock F, then we make conclusion that stock F price can move up, can buy and later quickly sell and make quick profit.

Foreign funds are generally big and vibrant, and their buying can actually push up the share price. When selling, can actually pull down the share prices. When foreigner just started to coming in, then we can expect blue-chips in the local stock market to have strong buying interest.

The recent IHH IPO published many times on the cornerstone investors, these are the smart money. Some may made the decision to apply IHH IPO because they know there are many cornerstone investors (smart money) and follow them.

Some may even follow their friends who are very successful in stock market. They consider their friends as smart money.



RISKS, LIMITATIONS OR DIFFICULTIES:

No doubt if we “know” what is their trading and intention, then we follow them, the chances of making money are high. But we may know their trading but may not know their intention.

Directors who buy back their company shares, may just purposely do it for a show.

A local big fund buying at $5.00 may just be using only 10% of the fund allocation. If it drop lower they will buy again. But if we follow at $5.00, we may not have the money to average down.

 The smart money may have exited by taking profit or cut loss but we may not notice.

A foreign fund may be buying in one broker but selling through another broker.

Some smart money buy shares because of some contract or earlier arrangement and they may be forced to buy.

Syndicate may be buying but they may also use many accounts sell.

Some of them may be selling, not because the stock is not good, but because their cost is very low, switch stock or exit Malaysia

Smart money may also make wrong decisions.

Not easy to know smart money activities. In order to know, we have to keep following the announcements and development.


OPINION:

Not easy to follow smart money, because we never know their full intention.


More information on 52 Ways of Making Money in Stock Market
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/52%20Ways%20of%20Making%20Money%20in%20Stock%20Market


1)Please add my blog link to your blog.
2)Please join Google Friend Connect in my blog.
3)Please click facebook "LIKE" if you like my blog.
4)If you are using mobile, please click/change to web base in order to see my facebook "LIKE" and Google Friend Connect.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com



Thanks

Followers

Disclaimer

Disclaimer Clause
The information contained in this blog is my personal diary and has been prepared solely for myself. Without any previous reading material or discussion, by just reading my blog contents, reader may misunderstand the contents.
All the contents I am talking to myself and most contents are hypothetical or imaginary.
This blog has been compiled in good faith, with no intention to cause hurt, loss, or any trouble. No representation is (either express or implied) as to the completeness or accuracy of the information it contains.
This blog also is not an advice, recommendation or an invitation to buy or sell or invest in anything, eg shares, futures, derivatives, gold, etc. Consult your investment adviser before making any decisions.
The copyright of the material contained in my blog remains solely with me. You shall not copy, reproduce and / or distribute this information without my permission.