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Wednesday, November 21, 2012

QL Buy but TSH Not sure by brokers?

TSH result not so good, as expected due to the lower oil palm prices.

Based on TSH share price of RM2.24, TSH PE ratio high (2012)
Growth? Thier fruit will increase but hopefully the oil palm price can recover.
Net gearing manageable.
Dividend yield low, less than 2%.

Some brokers ask to Sell, some hold, some say still can buy. TSH target price some give RM1.92, RM2.70, RM2.46, etc.

QL financial result also not so good, also due to low palm oil prices. But at least thier marime product manufacturing performed quite ok. Integrated livestock farming margin dropped due to price pressure.

Based on QL share price of RM3.16, QL PE ratio not low.
Growth most brokers say ok.
Net gearing is manageable.
QL dividend yield is low, less than 2%.

But surprising most brokers still recommend buying QL stock, saying PE ratio reasonable and got profit growth potential. They said QL also is a defensive stock, still can make profit during bad economy. Examples of QL target price RM4.05 OSK, RHB RM3.60.

More info on TSH stock here.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/TSH

More info on QL news here.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/QL

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Sunday, November 18, 2012

Do YOU agree with ME?

Look at the following and see whether you agree with me.

I always hear people say don't convert the currency. For example, they say in Singapore the cost of living is very cheap, eg food, chicken rice only S$3.00, but in Malaysia is RM5.00. 5 is more than 3, so they say Malaysia is more expensive than Singapore. But I say if I convert S$3.00 X 2.5 will be RM7.50, more expensive than RM5. However, they always disagree with me, asking me not to convert. Keep saying $3 is cheaper $5 and they like to make the statement "you work there you spend there".

I can't accept this. I told them if UK selling at £2 (RM10), and Indonesia selling at 7000 Rupiah (RM2.24), meaning UK cost of living is lowest and Indonesia cost of living the highest? Cannot be right? But they still refuse to listen, keep saying you work there you spend there. Actually more 20 friends, relatives or family member always saying that. No one is on my side.

For me, we need to convert, but also need to compare with income. For example 12 years ago my friend with a degree started working,  got offer from Singapore with S$1,500 pay and his Malaysia job offer him with RM2000, doing similar job. Assuming now starting pay S$2000 , and Malaysia is RM2700, I don't know the figure, just assuming. Chicken rice S$3.00 is 0.15% of S$2000. In Malaysia RM5.00 is 0.185% of RM2700. A better way is to use Per Capital Income.

Then if you tell me Singapore cost of living is lower because chicken rice only cost 0.15% of salary but cost 0.185% in Malaysia, I will accept.

Stop telling me "DON'T CONVERT, YOU WORK THERE YOU SPEND THERE".

Thanks.

Friday, November 16, 2012

Make money in stock market by using casino owner strategy

How casino make money? If we understand that, we can apply it in stock market and make money.

Please note that I'm not encouraging gambling, this is just a case study showing how to use casino owner strategy to make money in stock market.

How casino owner make money then?

First, probability or chances.

In almost every game, the chances of casino owner making money is higher than customer.

Example in a game of roulette with double zero, owner has an extra 5.26% winning chance.

If you bet "odd" or "even" you have 47.37% chance of winning, but casino owner have 52.63% chance of winning.

In stock market, we have to find stocks that have higher winning chances. That probably mean buy good fundanmental stock.

Second. People always say casino owners do not afraid you make money from them, they only afraid you stop visiting them again. What does that mean? It means in short term, owner win some, customer also can win some. But in long term, as long as customers keep playing, they will lose (due to probability or chances).

In Bursa Malaysia stock market? Meaning in short term, even if we buy good counter we may lose money in short term. But in long term, will make money.

Third. Amount of bet. In casino, there is a minimun bet amount and maximum bet amoumt. Each table will have its limit. This is for the casino owner to avoid winning small and losing big. Example they make from 7 customers $500 each = $3500. But what if they lose to one customer $1,000,000 and the customer stop playing?

In stock market, meaning our amount of investment need to be balance, about the same amount and not lopsided. This is to avoid us from losing very big in few transactions where the many small gain unable to cover the loss. That is the reason I use Dollar Cost Averaging.

Fourth. Casino owner make money because patience and no emotion.

Give you one example. A customer has $1,000. Each bet $50, playing blackjack, some games owner win, some he wins, that can last him few hours before losing all his money. But after one hour, all money gone. Why?

This is because after many games, he felt boring, started increasing his bet, change game and start playing something else. After a while, realise lost money, use his balance $300 and try to revenge by placing all $300 in one bet. Soon, all money gone.

Another example is, after started winning, the customer increase him bet, therefore, once started losing will be at higher amount.

In stock market? Meaning we have to be patient and cannot let emotion control us.

Fifth. Diversify. Imaging what will happen if all customers combined and bet with the casino owner for each game. Example all customers combined and bet $100 million with the casino owner. If casino owner win, they make $100 million, if lose, they lose $100 million.

They probably dare not. What they are doing is spread the risk by diversify, meaning average from all customers.

In stock market, we invest in different stocks in order to diversify.

Other related income. Casino owner make money by earning other related income. Example hotel and theme park.

In stock market we can also make other related income. How? Example earning money from trust account, IPO, work in stock market related areas, stock market blogging, etc.

Casino also trying to make more money by hoping the customers increase thier bet amount. We can increase our investment amount in stock market as we have higher income or salary.

From what we can see, casino owner make money because they have higher chances of winning in each game, long term business, controlling the minimun and maximun amount of bet, patience and no emotion, diversify and also earn from other income.

If stock market we can make money by buying good fundanmental stock that has higher chance of making money, long term, controlling our investment amount, patience and no emotion, diversify, and we can make other income if we want.

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Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Sold iCapital stock with very small gain

As I have mentioned earlier on the selling of iCapital shares, I sold at RM2.4x, with a very small gain. Refer to the post that I bought iCapital at RM2.3x. Initially I bought it was because of Lexey Partners, was hoping that they can do something during iCapital AGM.

One thing I don't understand, I thought Lexey would have bought sufficient shares and had high chances of winning.

Another thing is why other shareholders voted against Lexey? They rather just wait for long term? If they need money now, they would have to sell at current price which is at huge discount to iCapital net asset value. iCapital also performed not so good for the past one and the half year.

Due to the huge discount, buying iCapital may be better than buying unit trust. But I just don't think the iCapital has done enough to narrow the discount.

Hopefully the discount can be narrowed, and iCapital shareholders will get want is due to them.

Article: is buying iCapital better than buying unit trust?
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/2012/08/is-buying-icap-stock-better-than-buying.html

More info on iCapital news.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/ICAP

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Sunday, November 11, 2012

Is iCapital performing well?

Past few days I saw many articles news on hostile iCapital takeover saying iCapital has performed well since inception. Then I saw report related to Laxey telling that iCapital is not performing well.

Let me present and see whether iCapital is performing well or not.

iCapital Net Asset Value NAV
30/12/2009 RM1.99
29/12/2010 RM2.55
28/12/2011 RM2.73
26/09/2012 RM2.92

KLCI
2010            19.3%
2011            0.75%
2012 until Sep  6.9%

iCapital due to different dates, plus minus estimate.
2010   28.1%
2011   7.1%
2012 until Sep  7%

Since inception listing on 19/10/2005, NAV up 186% from RM0.99 to RM2.86. KLCI up 73%.

From 31/5/2011 to 31/5/2012, iCapital NAV up 3% from RM2.77 to RM2.86. KLCI up 1%.

Based on the above, we can see that since inception iCapital was doing well, outperformed the KLCI by a very wide margin.

But this year and for the past one and a half year, if my computation is accurate, iCapital is just performing slightly better than KLCI or some may choose to say performed about the same as KLCI.

Why? I didn't manage to find explaination.

For comparison, look at my fund performance.

My Fund Performance
2010       35.9%
2011       27.3%
2012 until to Sep 14.2%

Although my fund performed better than iCapital, but we can't really compare because my individual personal fund is too small.

Saw article said if iCapital do share buy back and cancel the share, NAV increase but fund size reduce and their management fee will be reduced. Is that true? How they compute management fee? NAV increase good for shareholders right?

I'm selling my iCap. I didn't realise they have so much cash and if they do share buy back, iCap share price will increase and NAV will also increase and shareholders will make more money. But iCapital didn't do that in a big way. I can't accept the reasons that they gave. So I'm selling.

Why not do share buy back when iCapital share price is trading at huge discount to NAV? Buying their own stocks holdings at 20% to 30% discount, why not?

Use some money for share buy back and if need money to buy other good stock, still got money. Or sell existing stocks also can.

One more thing I don't understand.

If you look at iCapital major portfolio holdings, these stocks many have limited target price upside by analysts or not really recommended strong buy by many analysts.

Example PETDAG share price RM21.82, target price by:
CIMB (buy RM24.60)
TA (sell RM20.60) HWANG (sell RM16.15).

Padini share price RM1.98, target price from:
AMMB RM2.00
Hwang RM2.10
OSK RM2.22

Parkson share price RM4.99, Target price from:
RM4.35 ECM SELL
RM5.13 KENANGA HOLD
RM5.32 RHB
RM5.73 PBB BUY

F&N share price RM18.60. Target price by:
RM19.33 TA SELL
RM15.17 MIDF SELL
RM20.80 MBB HOLD
RM18.60 CIMB SELL
RM18.00 AMMB HOLD.

Congratulation on iCapital performance since inception, although recently they are not performing as good as previous years, hope they can continue their past records. All the best for those who are holding iCapital. May you make money from iCapital and may I make money from other stocks, that's the beauty of stock market.

For more info on iCapital.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/ICAP

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Friday, November 9, 2012

Hiap Huat IPO


Basic and quick analysis.
Hiap Huat PE Ratio 2011 11x.

Growth 7.3% (2012) and 23.1% (2013) – Forecast by TA Securities analyst research .
Gearing (net) 0.1x

Hiap Huat has no dividend payout ratio policy.

According to TA, Hiap Huat fair value is RM0.22 based on 4.5x EV/EBITDA which is at a 40% discount to US-based comparable peer Safety-Kleen’s recently  concluded acquisition multiple of 7.8x EV/EBITDA. They believe that the discount is fair given Safetly-Kleen’s revenue base is 100-fold that of Hiap Huat. Furthermore, TA FV implies 9.0x FY13 PE for Hiap Huat, which they believe is fair, given that most small-cap trading companies in Malaysia trade at single-digit P/E between the range of 5.0x-9.0x. There are no listed companies within Malaysia and the region, which are directly comparable to the group.
According to Kenanga research, the target price is RM0.21 based on Financial Year 2013 PE ratio of 9.8x

Are you going to apply Hia Huat IPO? Worth to apply?
More info on Hiap Huat
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/2012/11/hiap-huat-holdings-bhd-ipo.html


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Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Hiap Huat Holdings Bhd IPO



Opening of application  05/11/2012
Closing of application     12/11/2012
Balloting of applications                16/11/2012
Allotment of IPO shares to successful applicants               19/11/2012
Tentative listing date      26/11/2012

Hiap Huat Holdings Bhd IPO share price RM0.20




PUBLIC ISSUE OF 85,000,000 NEW ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.10 EACH IN OUR COMPANY AT AN ISSUE PRICE OF RM0.20 PER ORDINARY SHARE PAYABLE IN FULL UPON APPLICATION COMPRISING:

5,000,000 NEW ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.10 EACH AVAILABLE FOR APPLICATION BY THE PUBLIC; AND

80,000,000 NEW ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.10 EACH BY WAY OF PRIVATE PLACEMENT TO SELECTED INVESTORS; AND

OFFER FOR SALE OF UP TO 50,000,000 ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.10 EACH AT AN OFFER PRICE OF RM0.20 PER ORDINARY SHARE BY WAY OF PRIVATE PLACEMENT TO SELECTED INVESTORS PAYABLE IN FULL UPON APPLICATION

IN CONJUNCTION WITH OUR LISTING ON THE ACE MARKET OF BURSA MALAYSIA SECURITIES BERHAD

Source: Bursa Malaysia

 
It is a used oil recycler company, collecting, recycling, re-refining and producing recycled products. The group stores, treats and recycles waste oil collected from industrial and commercial companies and then formulates them into end products ready to be used by end consumers. The group's recycled end products derived mainly from its recycling and recovery process are sold under their own “AF1”, “Top Up”, “NEKKO”, “Cap Rumah” and “Flag” brand names. (Source: The Star)
 

Target price, PE ratio, etc.  here.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/2012/11/hiap-huat-ipo.html

Hiap Huat Holdings Bhd stock name code is HHHCORP.



For more info on other IPO, here.








Sunday, November 4, 2012

AirAsia X IPO RM0.97 wait ICAP

ICAP share price up for the past few days to at least one year high of RM2.38 RM2.39.

ICAP net asset value is about RM2.96. Hopefully during the AGM on 10 Nov 2012 the shareholders will do something to unlock the value of ICAP.

AirAsia X IPO
AirAsia X IPO is hoping to be listed. The size of the IPO is much smaller than the recent Astro, IHH and FGV.

This AirAsia X IPO will be interesting because of the poor performance of Astro. How the public going to react on this.

Based on Reuters estimte, AirAsia X IPO price is RM0.97 per share, just an early estimate. But let us wait for more info. Will post more once got the information or news, normally start with MITI application.

Amedia stock news.
Amedia share price has dopped substatially, then sideway. I was thinking consolidate at sideway and if start to  breakout can buy. Although the recent crash was based on Unusual Market Activity, but Amedia still a profitable company. TA give Amedia stock price target RM0.65, and Amedia drop to about RM0.35 and moved sideway. Now RM0.41. I have missed it.

Pantech stock.
Recently the quarterly result was good. At Patech share price of RM0.68, still trading at low PE ratio with good growth potential and good dividend yield.

Pantech target price is RM0.81 to RM0.82 by Kenanga, TA and OSK.

More info on Pantech share.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/Pantech

Astro analysis.
Saw some new Astro research report still give Astro target price above RM3.00. Some of my friends still not yet sell. As I mentioned earlier, Astro if trade at RM2.40 still consider expensive. But hope it can rebound to above RM3.00. So that my friends can sell without loss. How is that possible above RM3? Analyst fair value is above RM3. Owners received a lot of cash from IPO. If they want to buy it back from market, very easy. If Astro include in KLCI or Morgan Stanley composite index, then there may be buying interest.

What is Astro NTA? Once they announce the quarterly result, then we will know Astro net asset value per share. Whether is positive or negative, high or low, etc.

More on Astro here.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/Astro

ECS stock 5162.
Recently ex for bonus one for two. So my purchase price adjusted from RM1.5x to RM1.0X.

More info on ECS stock here.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/ECS%20ITC

P&O dividend yield.
P&O recently announced interim dividend. This is the 6th times for this year. Total RM0.084, I think probay still got final dividend and not sure whether still got a.other interim dividend.

More info on P&O here.
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/Pacific%20and%20Orient

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More info on ICAP
http://politemarket.blogspot.com/search/label/ICAP

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