Peggy Method and Dollar Cost Averaging. Bursa Malaysia KLSE KLCI. Bookmark me, add me in your blog, like my facebook and visit me often.
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Tuesday, October 25, 2016
MFCB Warrant Upside Potential table
Tuesday, October 18, 2016
MFCB-WA can up 270% or 140% in 3 years?
Divided by MFCB Warrant price RM0.60 = upside of 270% !!
MFCB have this USD500m (RM2bn) Don Sahong hydropower project which has been on track, reaching 10% completion as of Aug 2016. The deadline to complete the project is31 Dec 2019 while commercial operation is scheduled to take place in early 2020.
1-fold jump in profit RM51.8 million + RM51.8mil = RM103.6 million.
3-fold jump in profit = RM51.8 X 3 + RM51.8mil = RM207.2 million
Warrant Price now RM0.60.
= 140% upside.
The Laos hydropower project could fetch as much as RM4.43/share. Upon the full commercial operation of the hydropower plant, we forecast that the Don Sahong Hydropower could contribute as much as RM4.43/share (WACC: 7%) based on our DCF valuation. As of now, we apply a higher WACC of 10% coupled with a 30% discount for the risk exposure during the construction period, which yields a valuation of RM2.26/share. All-in, our SOP-based TP is revised upwards from RM2.29 to RM3.16.
Sunday, September 18, 2016
List of Export counters due to Strong US Dollar
I'm not saying that now is the time to buy export counters. Sharing of info only. By the way, I don't gain by sharing info, and always receive criticism. People will leave some nasty comments in my blog and facebook. Is like eating nice durian, hope others can enjoy. I'll be glad if my sharing can help others. If you think my method is wrong or need to be improved, why don't you guide me. I'm also still learning.
If you buy USD, USD up 1%, you make 1%. Some of the stocks below if USD up 1%, their profit could up 1.5% or some companies 2%. So, if you want to benefit from USD or hedge against USD, you may consider stocks that can gain at least 1% or more from 1% up of USD.
It is also better to look for companies with good prospect, high dividend yield, high target price or fair value. In case the USD does not go up, at least the stock also can go up due to higher profit or receive good dividend.
The list below are 12 months ago, but most are still valid. Do your own research. Their share prices are the latest and target prices are quite recent. The target price I roughly average it if got few brokers. If I didn't indicate any target price means unable to find.
Some are not export stocks, but are benefited from strong USD or weakening of Ringgit (example strong Yen or Euro). They may have operations in overseas.
I also list those have negative impact from weakening of Ringgit.
Once again, sharing of information only, I may have typo or the info may be outdated. Check with your finacial planner.
The target price or fair value are BEFORE the straightening of USD to near RM4.20 now (RM4.15??). If USD up, the Target Price later will also be up.
I also list down those are negatively impacted by weakening of Ringgit. Don't mix up. DO NOT MIX UP.
Top Glove RM4.69, TP RM5.50
Homeritz share price RM0.885, Target Price RM1.09
Vitrox RM3.83, TP RM3.70
Last year Maybank said 1% USD up, Vitrox bottomline up 2%.
Because some of the operations are in overseas.
GenM RM4.37, TP RM4.50
Daibochi RM2.25, TP RM2.14
Tomypak RM1.66, TP RM2.00
Thong Guan TGUAN RM4.28, TP RM4.88
MISC RM7.53, RM8.10
You see this CSCENIC, there was one quarter it said although USD is strong, their profit was not good because undercut by Europe competitors. I think Euro also dropped against the USD, not sure. So you must determine whether is USD strong, or Ringgit weak.
Ahb
Dps
Eksons
Eurosp
Facbind
Ffhb
Jaycorp
Lcheong
Pohuat
Sernkou
Sign
Syf
Tafi
Swscap
UMW
Tan Chong
Last year Kenanga said 1% fluatuation in USD, UMW's bottomline could be affected by 3%. Tan Chong is 6%.
Because many borrowings are in USD. Fuel cost also. Unless they have hedged it.
You guys know AirAsia much better than me.
Many telcos have borrowings in USD.
Because most content costs are in USD but sales are in Ringgit.
Nestle
TCM
TENAGA
SUNWAY- USD debt
IJM- USD debt
F&N
GAB GUINNESS HEIM HEINEKEN MALAYSIA BERHAD
Friday, August 12, 2016
Top 7 Investors in the World, 4 are from Malaysia. Warren Buffet No.7
World Top Seven Investors. If you read their track records, excellent job done. I wish my return can come close to these seven top investors in the world. Still have a lot to learn from them.
Number Seven.
Warren Buffett. He made more than USD60 million for the past 50 years. I think that excludes billions that he has donated away. Great investor for so many years.
Number Six.
Although we always hear of Warren Buffet, but he lose to Carl Icahn. He is an American business magnate, investor, activist shareholder, and philanthropist.From 1968 through 2011, Icahn grew his original $100,000 investment in his firm at a 31% annual rate, while Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway had "only" a 20% annual growth rate.
Number 5.
But both of them still lose to George Soros in ONE SINGLE DAY CATEGORY. His September 16, 1992 transaction, when he made a single-day gain of $1 billion dollars.
Number 4
But Soros loses to a Malaysian guy by the name of Mr Dummy who made 107%profit in 2015. Soros only increased from USD23 billion to USD24.9 billion, a mere8%.
Number 3
But Mr Dummy loses to moneySifu who made more than 20% in 2016, while Mr Dummy is making 8.5% lose in 2016.MoneySifu is a Malaysian.
Number 2
But moneySifu loses to a pretty lady called Michelle (not her actual name), a branch manager who I met in an optical shop last weekend. She is a Malaysian too. She made 87% within two months from 1000 units of JHM stock worth RM720 and sold RM1350. Her brother in law suggested her to buy JHM.
Number 1.
Who is the best? Michelle's brother in law? Her brother in law is only driving an old local car. He is a Malaysian.
The list can go on and on. Therefore:
A)Don't compare and be sad/envy. Compare and see how we can be improved, should be happy. Learn from them.
B)Don’t WORSHIP great investors.
1) Those who made high percentage, maybe invested smaller amount than you, just like Michelle.
2)High percentage may be just selected years. Look at Mr Dummy 107% gain in 2015, negative 8% this year while many are making good profit in 2016. Great investor, but maybe he has no time to look for new stocks or review his stocks and hold on too tight. Have learned a lot from him.
3)For those who made high percentage % and invested a lot, they still lose to Warren Buffett, because Buffett made more money than anyone. But Warren Buffet lose to Carl Icahn. And the winner is Michelle’s brother in law who is driving an old local car. The circle keeps continue until no end.
4)Some make 60% from their spare cash, but you make 17% from your total portfolio. You are better.
5)Some invested almost all their net-worth and made 16%, whereas yours only part of your net-worth and made 17%.
6)Some are from rich family, the first trade is already RM20,000. Whereas some started with RM800.
Great investors have their own weaknesses. Learn from them, but don’t worship them.
When am I rank? The world has 7.4 billion people now, and I’m rank 3,700,000,001. Slightly above average.
Stock Market is a good place to make money. Happy Investing.
Tuesday, February 9, 2016
How to spend $10,000 in a month?
$ Balance
Salary 10,000
EPF 1,100 8,900
Tax 860 8,040
Kindergarten 790 7,250
Day care 430 6,820
Child Activities 200 6,620
Car instalment 650 5,970
Car Maintenance 400 5,570
Petrol 420 5,150
Parent 1,000 4,150
Insurance 1,050 3,100
House 1,300 1,800
Market/Grocery 450 1,350
Phone 210 1,140
Electricity/ water 150 990
Toll + parking 150 840
Management Fee 200 640
Office Lunch 440 200
Weekend 200 0
Below are expenses simulations of an average middle class family.
Salary husband $6000 and wife $4000, total $10,000.
BALANCE $10,000
.
DEDUCTIONS AND EXPENSES:
EPF $1,100 and Tax $870.
BALANCE $8,040
.
Kindergarten $790
Two kids. Youngest kindergarten plus day care, morning until 6.45pm. Nobody take care of him after morning class. $240 is morning class and $550 is day care plus lunch plus tea time. Slightly expensive because only one centre at the location that closes at 7pm+. Sometimes office a lot of things to do and late in picking up child.
Unable to cut this expenses.
BALANCE $7,250.
.
Primary day care plus tuition $430
Eldest child in primary school afternoon. Morning nobody take care, so send to day care + tuition at 7.30am, $380. Afternoon the centre will send the child to school. $50 is to cater food from school canteen, eldest child still young, easier and no need to bring pocket money. About the same expenses if buy from canteen.
Unable to cut this expenses.
Balance $6,820
.
Child Activities $200
$100 per child, one swimming, one badminton. See most parents also give their children learning some extra activities. Hopefully one day they will be like Lee CW or Misbun Sidek. Shall cut this expenses?
BALANCE $6,620
.
Car Instalment $650
Instalment for most common local car, Myvi, for husband. Wife 10 years old Kelisa. If finish paying Myvi, then is time for wife to change car. Not really want to change, but if too old the repair cost also will be killing the owner and not reliable. Use public transport? Need cars to rush to pick-up children. Sometimes last minute husband need to stay late, sometimes wife, so need two cars.
BALANCE $5,970
.
Car Maintenance $400
Husband every 3 to 6 months normal service in Perodua service centre, every few visits is the centre say major service. $300 to $600 per service. But sometimes change tyre, brake, absorber, brake discs skimming, and many other things plus labour cost. Sometimes the bill can be close to $1000. Average per months is $100 for service and $100 for general maintenance and repairs.
Wife normal service is cheaper but repairs are worse, sometimes engine oil leaking, oil seals, overhaul, rims, and many other things plus labour cost. Always got a lot of things to repair. Wife monthly average also same $200.
Major repairs will be at other workshops. No matter which car, when we ask “ don’t change or don’t repair can or not?”, the replies are always the same, “can, but dangerous, especially if you on highway”.
No buying of unnecessary accessories.
BALANCE $5,570
.
Petrol $420
Husband $260, wife $160
BALANCE $5,150
Parents Monthly $1,000
Husband two parents and wife two, total four. Average giving about $250 per parent. Can reduce the amount?
BALANCE $4,150.
.
Insurance $1,050
Husband $450. Wife $350. Each child $125.
Not really can cut because husband got high blood pressure and any new insurance will have extra charges. If don’t buy full coverage now, any sickness will not be covered if detected before buying. Government hospital service is not good, example asking us to do kidney dialysis 3 times a week at private centre, and visit doctor have to wait weeks or months to book an appointment.
No education plan.
Shall cut this?
BALANCE $3,100
.
House Instalment $1300
Purchase cost $250,000 basic condo with only swimming pool. 1,000 square feet. Now also hard to get at this price.
BALANCE $1,800
.
Market and Grocery $450
About $110 per week. Market for cooking dinner Monday to Friday, fruits, grocery buying toilet paper, cooking oil, canned food, sauce, broom, detergent, kitchenware, gas, milk powder, biscuit, eggs, milk, cereal, bread, washing powder, and normally the bills from hypermarket are very long and expensive.
BALANCE $1,350.
.
Phone $210
$75 x 2 persons = $150.
3.5 years change phone $1,260. Per month is $30. X2 = $60
BALANCE $1,140
.
Utilities Bills $150
Electricity and water bills are standard. Very seldom watch TV or use laptop. No Astro, computer and Wi-Fi. No thermos flask/microwave, 1 room aircon 25 Celsius 10pm until 3pm, living hall once a while one hour aircon if very hot, 2 water heaters lowest temperature without pump, one washing machine and fridge. Most are florescent light (long lasting) and some energy savings lights (not long lasting always spoiled).
BALANCE $990
.
Toll and Parking $150
Wife office parking $120 per month.
Balance $840
.
Condo management Fee $200
This is expensive. Previously was $120. Many tenants didn’t pay, and only two blocks to share the costs. Unable to do anything, unless move to a new place. Now property prices are very expenses.
BALANCE $640
.
Office Lunch $440
22 days X $10 per day X 2 persons. Normal cheap meal is $6 to $7. One week one or two times eat Nasi Lemak for breakfast X 2 persons. One or two times a week lunch with drinks. Sometimes colleagues say enjoy a bit, sometimes got birthdays, eat $15 to $20 and sometimes buy small cakes. Sometimes buy for tea time. Most of the extras are ‘sometimes” only. Average is $10 per day.
9 days $6 = $54
9 days $7 = $63
2 days $15 = $30
2 days $20 = $40
Total 22 days working days in a month, $187
5 days per month Nasi Lemak breakfast $8
6 days per month lunch with drink $8
4 days per month tea time $8
2 days per month drive out parking $6
$3 for GST and service tax in some restaurants.
Total $220
BALANCE $200
.
Weekend $200
Many activities during weekend, so eat Nasi Campur / Mixed Rice outside. Husband and wife $5 x 2 persons = $10. Kids $2.50 X 2 persons = $5. Total food per day $15. 4 persons if eat 3 bowls of noodles $7 X 3 already $21 and more than $15 budget.
4 persons, each person $2.50 for other expenses per day during weekends, total $10. This is to cover the food budget >$15 per day, pay parking, buy some drinks if finished the tumblers/bottles from house, kids sometimes want ice-cream, buy $5 of fruit, rojak, roti canai, or tart when visiting parents.
($15 + $10) X 8 weekend (days) = $200.
BALANCE ZERO
BALANCE ZERO
BALANCE ZERO
.
The above are just the fixed expenses, and excluding the followings:
No Astro and no Wi-Fi.
Parents medical expenses, they use their own money plus pocket money given to them.
Buying new clothes.
Buying expensive toys examples Lego and cartoon movie trademark toys.
Starbucks.
Health supplements
Cannot afford to smoke and drink alcohol.
Cannot afford direct selling products.
Vacation, local or overseas.
Occasions, examples father mother grandparents children relatives and friends birthdays, weddings, funerals, house warming.
Buying electrical items, either new items, spoiled or upgrade.
House maintenance, eg re-painting, pipe inside wall leaking.
Festive seasons expenses.
Branded goods, eg bags, shoes, shirts, dress.
No expensive restaurant and no normal restaurant also. If eat outside, eat noodle, chicken rice or mixed rice. No ordering dishes.
No helping others, eg giving money to someone in need.
No investment.
No emergency expenses.
Etc Etc..
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Wednesday, November 5, 2014
Why we should buy shares in November
Over the past 100 years, the best three-month stretch for stocks has been November through January. On average, the Dow Jones Industrial Average records strong gains in all three months, jumping 1.5% in December alone, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
The S&P 500 shows a similar trend since 1928, the period for which data on that index are available. It has risen an average 3.4% over the three months, nearly double its 1.86% average gain for three-month periods in general.
Many money managers hope to see that now, even though stocks aren’t cheap.
“The fact that stocks in the U.S. are a bit stretched, which they are, doesn’t prevent them from moving ahead in the next three to six months,” said Russ Koesterich, chief investment strategist at BlackRock Inc., which manages $4.32 trillion.
Stocks have risen despite high prices all year. They rebounded from sharp pullbacks in January, April, July, September and October. The Dow is up 4.9% for 2014 and the S&P 500 has risen 9.2%, with both at record highs.
Investors offer several reasons for the November-to-January strength. Year-end is when many companies record their biggest sales, as consumers spend on the holidays and businesses invest in equipment for the new year. And January is when some retirement funds put fresh money into accounts.
But the higher stocks go, the more skittish investors become. The S&P 500 has almost tripled since its 2009 low and trades at 18.7 times component companies’ net profits for the past 12 months. That is well above its long-term average price/earnings ratio of 15.5, Birinyi Associates calculates.
With investors sitting on big gains, they are quick to take profits when they face anxiety about slow global growth, tensions with Russia or expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next year. So far, they have overcome their worries, most recently because of positive earnings reports, better U.S. and European economic numbers and a huge new Japanese stimulus program.
The risk is that investors could sell again if they get more bad news about earnings, the economy or global tensions.
“There are so many things that could shock markets that I think are very fully valued,” said Michael Farr, president of Farr, Miller & Washington, which oversees $1.1 billion in Washington. “I would caution investors to make sure they have a seat when the music stops.”
Mr. Farr has focused on conservative stocks that tend not to fall as heavily in downdrafts, avoiding stocks such as Facebook Inc. and Twitter Inc., he said.
There are reasons for worry: The pullbacks’ frequency has increased, and the October one was particularly sharp. And other types of investments are signaling that the world economy remains troubled.
Investors are holding large sums in the relative safety of U.S. Treasury bonds, which has kept bond prices high and yields low. The appetite for Treasurys reflects doubts about the global economic and political outlook.
With the Fed ending its long-running bond-buying program and preparing to raise target interest rates, many bond experts thought Treasury yields had to rise. But after starting the year at 3%, the yield of the benchmark 10-year Treasury note finished Friday at 2.335%.
Oil shows a similar pattern. Crude-oil futures finished Friday at $80.54 a barrel, down 18.2% for 2014 and off 11.6% in October alone. Soft oil demand is widely seen as a sign that China’s economy is slowing, crimping its need for raw materials. Industrial metals have behaved similarly.
Corporate earnings also could be better. With two-thirds of big companies reporting, their profits are up 7.3% for the third quarter. That is above the 4.5% analysts projected at September’s end, but below the 8.9% they expected in June, said John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet. The results look good mainly because analysts cut their forecasts, notably in the weak energy and financial sectors.
“Overall, the numbers have come down and the companies have turned around and beat those estimates,” Mr. Butters said.
Analysts now are cutting estimates for future sales and earnings, at a time when investors believe companies need to boost sales to keep record profit margins up. Analysts now forecast 2.6% fourth-quarter sales gains, down from 3.8% forecast at the end of September.
And yet, money managers see reasons for optimism.
In addition to stocks’ normally strong performance from November through January, stocks also do well following off-year congressional elections and at the end of lame-duck presidential terms. That is true even when stocks have risen a lot in the previous year or two. Stocks also often advance when Washington is gridlocked, said Bespoke Investment Group’s co-founder, Paul Hickey.
And slow earnings and economic gains aren’t necessarily bad, especially if they hold down interest rates, inflation and wage gains. Capital costs and wages are two of the biggest expenses companies face, and keeping them low boosts profits.
“This slow, grinding growth, with very low interest rates and not much in the way of wage gains” is why profits are so high, said Mr. Koesterich of BlackRock. “Margins are a lot higher than people thought they would be, and they are staying there.”
“We could lose some steam as the Fed starts to raise rates” next year, he added, especially since Congress isn’t likely to spend on economic stimulus. But even then, he said, rates should remain so low that they shouldn’t derail the market.
By E.S. BROWNING
The Wall Street Journal
Saturday, September 28, 2013
Durex Special Condom for Pre Mature Ejaculation
He told us for those with pre mature ejaculation, can try Durex special condom, called Performax, Performa, Pleasure Max, Performax Intense. Don’t know why he said got different name. Inside the condom there is something to numb the penis head and delay ejaculation. He said very effective, delay ejaculation without feeling the numb and without losing the sensation feel. What is inside the condom is similar to what the dental use inside the mouth to numb our gum during dental treatment. So if it is safe inside our month, then is safe on men’s penis. He said it is not available in Malaysia, but can be bought in Singapore or can buy via online.
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All the contents I am talking to myself and most contents are hypothetical or imaginary. I REPEAT !!! most contents are hypothetical or imaginary!!!!!
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