Why Peggy Should be nominated for mini Nobel Prize in Bursa Malaysia

Peggy wanted to know why pump and dump counters went up but many people still lose money in the long run and overall still lose. In order to understand, Peggy went to experience it.

After her experience by following tips by fomous bloggers, she found some major points.

Each individual has different behaviour so there will be different timing, cut loss, capital, risk, fear, etc. Therefore, many points are hard to discuss. Below are just some major points.


Confuse Short or Long Term.
Why people rush to buy immediately after seeing an article published by pump and dump operator?
Answer is fast money. This = short term.
When the price doesn't move up for them to make the desire profit, they hold, because the article is on long term. Oh oh. People are confused here. When people are confused, normally they lose money. If they want long term, there are plenty of long term stocks, why rush to buy this. Don't be confused. Furthermore, most of these articles just showing good points to attract people and not sure whether are good for long term.


Another point is.... Price already up one or few days earlier.
People will say don't worry if the price already up if we invest for long term and the future is more important than the past. But these people want fast money, they tend to lose out because as the name called, pump and dump, the price already pumped up, and when many people rush to buy, pump up again, and in the end the buying price is very very high. Inflated price. Pumped up price. Premium price, or whatever name. Big disadvatage here for short term people. If some say don't worry if price already up, buy for future, you see, again people are confused with fast money and long term.



Another point.... Percentage Gain.
The percentage gain make from so called tips are much lower. Imaging if we buy a long term stock, recommended by some genuine analysts or bloggers, at RM1.00, the share price continue to go up, until it reaches RM2.00, first we have plenty of time to buy around RM1.00, or RM1.05 if a bit late or too early. Then sell at RM2.10, RM1.80 or RM1.90, plenty of time if we feel that the price has exceeded the potential. Still have time to eat a pao and have some coffee to ponder whether to sell. Or even go to Australia for a week, plenty of time to think. Easily can make 20% 30% 50% 100% or more.

But if we buy based on the tips, we have to rush to buy. Sell? WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN TO SELL. If we use our normally sell decision making process, hold as long as got potential, then we are not for fast money. See you, we are confused again. If we want to sell fast to make fast money, when to sell?
Buy RM0.30, up until RM0.32, sell? RM0.34, sell? Drop back to RM0.28, sell? RM0.50, sell?

If we hold, are we trading long term? If we sell at RM0.34, more than 10% return, the stock goes up to RM0.50, we feel that the blogger is very good, next time hold longer. We always use the highest price to judge a blogger. Wow, recommeded at RM0.30, went up as high as RM0.50. But who can sell at RM0.50? Who know RM0.50 will be the highest.

Because of these difficulties, sometimes make profit, sometimes lose, people tend to invest smaller amount. Smaller amount can't really make much. Those who have made big gain, invest big again and incur big loss. Ended up nothing.

Why must we invest in smaller amount when follow tips? If sometimes gain, sometimes lose, net still having good gain, why must we invest in smaller amount? Because deep in our heart we know this kind of investment following tips are risky, end of the day we may lose.


From the experience, it seems not so easy to make fast money following tips share by bloggers.

Price already up (pumped up), volumn few days ago already up maybe someone waiting to sell , confuse whether short or long term, investment amount whether go big or small also we are not sure, not sure when to sell. % gain also low, don't know how to sell at highest because never know. We judge people by comparing the highest price with the recommended price. All these cause making money from tips very difficult.

However, if those who are making good money after many rounds of following tips, share with us how.

Those who sometimes make, sometimes lose, make 5%, lose 20%, confuse, gain from RM5k capital but lose when invested RM10k, quickly re-examine.

I know for sure some will make very hugh gain.

Recommeded stock A. Up a bit then down a bit. So some people make a bit some lose a bit.
Recommeded stock B. Up a bit then drop a lot. So some make a bit some lose a bit some lose a lot. Different people buying and selling at different price.
Recommened stock C. Up a lot. Some sold early make a bit. Some hold and make huge gain.

Out of so many people follow, some really make a lot. But only a few. Can we be so fortunate among the few?


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Two Australian scientists, Robin Warren and Barry Marshall were awarded Nobel prize for physiology and medicine for their "unexpected" discovery that has saved millions of people from the pain of stomach ulcers.

Dr Barry Marshall succeeded in cultivating the bacterium, which became known as helicobacter pylori. To emphasise their point, in 1985, Dr Marshall deliberately infected himself with the helicobacter pylori bacterium to prove it caused acute gastric illness.

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To show erection not just emotion, but can be physical, in 1983 Sir Giles Skey Brindley [Brindley had] injected himself with papaverine in his hotel room before coming to give the lecture, and deliberately wore loose clothes (hence the track-suit) to make it possible to exhibit the results. He stepped around the podium, and pulled his loose pants tight up around his genitalia in an attempt to demonstrate his erection.

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From 2016 to 2017, Peggy went to real experiment in order to find out why majority of people keep losing money following famous bloggers.

Hold Ekovest or Ekovest-WB Warrant better?

Look at the table and see.

Top Picks For 2017

One Morning One Night in Bursa, EG, Hang Seng Call Warrant, Biohldg, Prolexus, Superlon, Bioalpha

My chinese friends said 一朝一夕 means one morning one night. It means very short period of time. In stock market investment (not trading), the result is not 一朝一夕. That's why many people have given up. Every day look at the screen and feel sad asking why their stocks prices didn't go up and some were down.

We must remember investmemt is not 一朝一夕 yī zhāo yī xī. In cantonese it is pronounced as YatJioYatJic.

Many days ago saw many Hang Seng HSI call warrants suddenly dropped a lot. For sure there will be a lot of losses. Be careful of trading in call warrants especially HSI because of huge premium and you are fighting against time.

If you buy call warrant C hoping market good you make money, and you buy put warrant H hoping to make money when market down, yes sound very easy. BUT, but and but there is something called premium. Most of the call or put warrants are trading at a huge premium. The prices will continue to drop until they reaches expiry, unless there is a very BIG swing up or down in Hang Seng. Another example is C may down 5% a week, but H may up only 2% a week. If you bought correctly you make 2% or 20% for example, but if you bought wrongly you may lose 5% or 23%. Therefore, it is not a 50 50 chance. Be careful.

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Make Money From Stock Market is about FUTURE, and not just past ROI, Cash Flow, Dividend, etc

Sometimes I read a lot of arguements and disputes about who right and who is wrong.

I summarised these people into 3
1)Too much historical FA. HFA
2)Balance Approach- Future and Valuation. BL
3)Simplified Future. SF

HFA
There is one group of people who like Historical Fundamental Analysis. Talking about net asset per share, PE ratio, dividend, cash, etc. Mostly about historical. 

If a company PE ratio is super low, 4 times, a good buy. But what if the profit drop next two years? You may lose money.

If the asset worth RM10 per share, now selling at RM6 per share, good buy. But if profit keep dropping or no increase, we may not make money. Unless we are the owner, we buy at RM6 and then sell the whole company at RM10.

They will show you numbers,  then numbers and lastly numbers until your kepala pening "headache".

Don't get me wrong. All these are important. But we should spend more time thinking and searching info about the future. Nobody know about the future. You are half right. If your son is in Form 3, next year in the Future he will be in form 4. But sometimes unforeseen things happen. He decided to stop studying and concentrate on badminton and you got it wrong. We don't know 100% about the future but we can forecast based on information that we have.

BL
Balance. These group of people talk more about future, eg icon sifu. Most of the info he shared are about future, the project, the expansion, the new orders, etc. He shared details things of future. He uses and also shares past records eg profit margin, but is for the purpose of analysing the trend, future and worth. Focus mainly on future. But he doesn't stop there, he also values the stock, whether the current price are expensive. Example no point buying a stock if the profit will grow 100% but the share price is already up 300%. That's why he also touches on PE ratio etc.

Analysts are the same. They forecast and they value. That is why in research report only few simple tables showing some important figures and forecast. They don't too much about ROI, net asset per share, etc.

For me, this is the best approach.

SF
Some just said the stock is good if the profit is growing. This is too simplified. That is why you can see many stocks 3 months later announce profit up 90% but the share price hardly move within this 3 months, because the stock price already up or PE ratio already very high.

×××××××

Just Vitamin C is not enough, that's why we need multivitamin.

I have attended a 2 full days course on fundamental, it did not benefit me much because they focus too much on cash, dividend, current ratio, etc. I thought that was just one topic, maybe Level 2 talk about Future. I went to chat with them, that's all, they just invest based in historical fundamental. The tutor was also quite surprise on the high % gain made by someone attended the course also. I know why, because they focus too much on dividend and stable stock, their return per year will not be high.

Investment is about Future and Valuation. Not just future and not just valuation.

Not to say I am "Mr Know It All", I don't know all and I am learning. But because lack of time, I don't really read those just talk mainly on fundamental. Because I only have 24 hours a day, I focus on those who talk about Future and Valuation.

With this would like to thank all analysts and those who contribution information generously.

Thank you.

Strong USD stocks, Top 30 stocks to buy. So many to choose from

Ringgit weaken again. For those who are interested to know stocks benefited from strong USD or weak Ringgit, refer here.

http://politemarket.blogspot.my/2016/09/list-of-export-counters-for-us-to-buy.html

Saw many people sharing cold eye stocks below. He is one of the famous investors in Malaysia. His name is in many listed companies top 30 shareholder list.

2016年11月5日, 冷眼分享会个股关注名單 ColdEyes Top 30 Stocks Pick:

>RM 3 (高价股）
PERSTIMA, TGUAN, ASIAFILE, TAANN, SOP, UMCCA

RM 1-3 （中价股）
HEVEA, SUPERLN, PENTA, IQGROUP, ECOWORLD, RCECAP, POHUAT, JAKS, MFCB, JTIASA, FREIGHT, PRLEXUS

<RM 1 （低价股）
JOHOTIN, MBSB, OPENSYS, MMSV, SOLUTN, RGB, HOMERIZ, SENDAI, WASEONG, OCK, WCE, WILLOW

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Sell Your Mother, Sell Your Car and Sell Your House. It Is Time To Sai Lang on MFCB-WA

Don’t misinterpret, sell your mother means for those who have MFCB mother shares, may work out computation on the potential upside vs risk on the mother share vs the MFCB-WA warrant and see whether MFCB’s son the warrant has better return than the mother or not.

It is not literally sell our mothers. We all know we love our mothers.

Sell Your Car and Sell Your House, I copy these phrase from ICON. All these words are a way to say go big into it. It is not literally to sell our cars and sell our houses. Just like the famous phrase “durian drop, sarong up”. It doesn’t mean we sell our sarong to buy durian, it is a way of saying durian is extremely nice to eat.

For more info, please refer to my previous articles on MFCB-WA.

By the way, the above is not a recommendation. Always seek professional advice on shares trading. The above is something to lighten up after two weeks of boring market where the Dow Jones index dropped for don’t know how many consecutive days.

Have a nice week ahead.

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