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Friday, March 25, 2011

Worth to invest in 4D? Or stock market is better?

For those who are not familiar with 4D, let me explain.

4D is gaming or betting.
Customer will pick a Four digit numbers from 0000 to 9999.
For every $1 bet, Prizes are:

First price $2,500 X 1.
Second price $1,000 X 1.
Third price $500 X 1
Special Prize $200 ( 10 numbers will get $200 each).
Consolation prize $60 (10 numbers will get $60 each).

What are your chances?
Base on what we have learned from school, if you buy $1 for all the numbers from 0000 to 9999, you need to pay $10,000.
Your total winnings will be just $6,600. Yes, ONLY $6,600.

What if you just buy $10 on one number?
On an average or base on probability, your $10 will become $6.6.

One week got three draws. Assuming you buy $10 on every draw for one year (52 weeks).
You would have invested $1,560 and you will end up with just $1,029.60. You lose $530.40, or 34%.
If you buy from two gaming companies, your losses will be double. Three gaming companies, then X3.

I heard now the special price is just RM180 and not RM200. That means you are getting worse.

In stock market, if the company is growing at an average 10% per year and dividend yield is 5%, on an average you probably will be making about 15% per year. The more you invest, you more you make.

Minimum to buy 4D is $1.00.
If I am an analyst, I would rate 4D a STRONG SELL.
Current 4D share price is $1.00, and my target price fair value for 4D is $0.66 (STRONG SELL).

Many will argue that it is based on luck. Some strike few hundred thousands.
Yes, congratulations.

But for those 99.77% of majority who are not so lucky, the more you invest, the more you lose. The longer you invest, the more you lose. The more operator companies you buy from, the more you lose. You want to invest in 4D?

The above is based on what have been learned in school on chances. Off course, some can buy one number and strike.

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