Why Peggy Should be nominated for mini Nobel Prize in Bursa Malaysia

Peggy wanted to know why pump and dump counters went up but many people still lose money in the long run and overall still lose. In order to understand, Peggy went to experience it.

After her experience by following tips by fomous bloggers, she found some major points.

Each individual has different behaviour so there will be different timing, cut loss, capital, risk, fear, etc. Therefore, many points are hard to discuss. Below are just some major points.


Confuse Short or Long Term.
Why people rush to buy immediately after seeing an article published by pump and dump operator?
Answer is fast money. This = short term.
When the price doesn't move up for them to make the desire profit, they hold, because the article is on long term. Oh oh. People are confused here. When people are confused, normally they lose money. If they want long term, there are plenty of long term stocks, why rush to buy this. Don't be confused. Furthermore, most of these articles just showing good points to attract people and not sure whether are good for long term.


Another point is.... Price already up one or few days earlier.
People will say don't worry if the price already up if we invest for long term and the future is more important than the past. But these people want fast money, they tend to lose out because as the name called, pump and dump, the price already pumped up, and when many people rush to buy, pump up again, and in the end the buying price is very very high. Inflated price. Pumped up price. Premium price, or whatever name. Big disadvatage here for short term people. If some say don't worry if price already up, buy for future, you see, again people are confused with fast money and long term.



Another point.... Percentage Gain.
The percentage gain make from so called tips are much lower. Imaging if we buy a long term stock, recommended by some genuine analysts or bloggers, at RM1.00, the share price continue to go up, until it reaches RM2.00, first we have plenty of time to buy around RM1.00, or RM1.05 if a bit late or too early. Then sell at RM2.10, RM1.80 or RM1.90, plenty of time if we feel that the price has exceeded the potential. Still have time to eat a pao and have some coffee to ponder whether to sell. Or even go to Australia for a week, plenty of time to think. Easily can make 20% 30% 50% 100% or more.

But if we buy based on the tips, we have to rush to buy. Sell? WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN TO SELL. If we use our normally sell decision making process, hold as long as got potential, then we are not for fast money. See you, we are confused again. If we want to sell fast to make fast money, when to sell?
Buy RM0.30, up until RM0.32, sell? RM0.34, sell? Drop back to RM0.28, sell? RM0.50, sell?

If we hold, are we trading long term? If we sell at RM0.34, more than 10% return, the stock goes up to RM0.50, we feel that the blogger is very good, next time hold longer. We always use the highest price to judge a blogger. Wow, recommeded at RM0.30, went up as high as RM0.50. But who can sell at RM0.50? Who know RM0.50 will be the highest.

Because of these difficulties, sometimes make profit, sometimes lose, people tend to invest smaller amount. Smaller amount can't really make much. Those who have made big gain, invest big again and incur big loss. Ended up nothing.

Why must we invest in smaller amount when follow tips? If sometimes gain, sometimes lose, net still having good gain, why must we invest in smaller amount? Because deep in our heart we know this kind of investment following tips are risky, end of the day we may lose.


From the experience, it seems not so easy to make fast money following tips share by bloggers.

Price already up (pumped up), volumn few days ago already up maybe someone waiting to sell , confuse whether short or long term, investment amount whether go big or small also we are not sure, not sure when to sell. % gain also low, don't know how to sell at highest because never know. We judge people by comparing the highest price with the recommended price. All these cause making money from tips very difficult.

However, if those who are making good money after many rounds of following tips, share with us how.

Those who sometimes make, sometimes lose, make 5%, lose 20%, confuse, gain from RM5k capital but lose when invested RM10k, quickly re-examine.

I know for sure some will make very hugh gain.

Recommeded stock A. Up a bit then down a bit. So some people make a bit some lose a bit.
Recommeded stock B. Up a bit then drop a lot. So some make a bit some lose a bit some lose a lot. Different people buying and selling at different price.
Recommened stock C. Up a lot. Some sold early make a bit. Some hold and make huge gain.

Out of so many people follow, some really make a lot. But only a few. Can we be so fortunate among the few?


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Two Australian scientists, Robin Warren and Barry Marshall were awarded Nobel prize for physiology and medicine for their "unexpected" discovery that has saved millions of people from the pain of stomach ulcers.

Dr Barry Marshall succeeded in cultivating the bacterium, which became known as helicobacter pylori. To emphasise their point, in 1985, Dr Marshall deliberately infected himself with the helicobacter pylori bacterium to prove it caused acute gastric illness.

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To show erection not just emotion, but can be physical, in 1983 Sir Giles Skey Brindley [Brindley had] injected himself with papaverine in his hotel room before coming to give the lecture, and deliberately wore loose clothes (hence the track-suit) to make it possible to exhibit the results. He stepped around the podium, and pulled his loose pants tight up around his genitalia in an attempt to demonstrate his erection.

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From 2016 to 2017, Peggy went to real experiment in order to find out why majority of people keep losing money following famous bloggers.

One Morning One Night in Bursa, EG, Hang Seng Call Warrant, Biohldg, Prolexus, Superlon, Bioalpha

My chinese friends said 一朝一夕 means one morning one night. It means very short period of time. In stock market investment (not trading), the result is not 一朝一夕. That's why many people have given up. Every day look at the screen and feel sad asking why their stocks prices didn't go up and some were down.

We must remember investmemt is not 一朝一夕 yī zhāo yī xī. In cantonese it is pronounced as YatJioYatJic.

Many days ago saw many Hang Seng HSI call warrants suddenly dropped a lot. For sure there will be a lot of losses. Be careful of trading in call warrants especially HSI because of huge premium and you are fighting against time.

If you buy call warrant C hoping market good you make money, and you buy put warrant H hoping to make money when market down, yes sound very easy. BUT, but and but there is something called premium. Most of the call or put warrants are trading at a huge premium. The prices will continue to drop until they reaches expiry, unless there is a very BIG swing up or down in Hang Seng. Another example is C may down 5% a week, but H may up only 2% a week. If you bought correctly you make 2% or 20% for example, but if you bought wrongly you may lose 5% or 23%. Therefore, it is not a 50 50 chance. Be careful.

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Make Money From Stock Market is about FUTURE, and not just past ROI, Cash Flow, Dividend, etc

Sometimes I read a lot of arguements and disputes about who right and who is wrong.

I summarised these people into 3
1)Too much historical FA. HFA
2)Balance Approach- Future and Valuation. BL
3)Simplified Future. SF

HFA
There is one group of people who like Historical Fundamental Analysis. Talking about net asset per share, PE ratio, dividend, cash, etc. Mostly about historical. 

If a company PE ratio is super low, 4 times, a good buy. But what if the profit drop next two years? You may lose money.

If the asset worth RM10 per share, now selling at RM6 per share, good buy. But if profit keep dropping or no increase, we may not make money. Unless we are the owner, we buy at RM6 and then sell the whole company at RM10.

They will show you numbers,  then numbers and lastly numbers until your kepala pening "headache".

Don't get me wrong. All these are important. But we should spend more time thinking and searching info about the future. Nobody know about the future. You are half right. If your son is in Form 3, next year in the Future he will be in form 4. But sometimes unforeseen things happen. He decided to stop studying and concentrate on badminton and you got it wrong. We don't know 100% about the future but we can forecast based on information that we have.

BL
Balance. These group of people talk more about future, eg icon sifu. Most of the info he shared are about future, the project, the expansion, the new orders, etc. He shared details things of future. He uses and also shares past records eg profit margin, but is for the purpose of analysing the trend, future and worth. Focus mainly on future. But he doesn't stop there, he also values the stock, whether the current price are expensive. Example no point buying a stock if the profit will grow 100% but the share price is already up 300%. That's why he also touches on PE ratio etc.

Analysts are the same. They forecast and they value. That is why in research report only few simple tables showing some important figures and forecast. They don't too much about ROI, net asset per share, etc.

For me, this is the best approach.

SF
Some just said the stock is good if the profit is growing. This is too simplified. That is why you can see many stocks 3 months later announce profit up 90% but the share price hardly move within this 3 months, because the stock price already up or PE ratio already very high.

×××××××

Just Vitamin C is not enough, that's why we need multivitamin.

I have attended a 2 full days course on fundamental, it did not benefit me much because they focus too much on cash, dividend, current ratio, etc. I thought that was just one topic, maybe Level 2 talk about Future. I went to chat with them, that's all, they just invest based in historical fundamental. The tutor was also quite surprise on the high % gain made by someone attended the course also. I know why, because they focus too much on dividend and stable stock, their return per year will not be high.

Investment is about Future and Valuation. Not just future and not just valuation.

Not to say I am "Mr Know It All", I don't know all and I am learning. But because lack of time, I don't really read those just talk mainly on fundamental. Because I only have 24 hours a day, I focus on those who talk about Future and Valuation.

With this would like to thank all analysts and those who contribution information generously.

Thank you.

Top 7 Investors in the World, 4 are from Malaysia. Warren Buffet No.7

World Top Seven Investors. If you read their track records, excellent job done. I wish my return can come close to these seven top investors in the world. Still have a lot to learn from them.

Number Seven.
Warren Buffett. He made more than USD60 million for the past 50 years. I think that excludes billions that he has donated away. Great investor for so many years.

Number Six.
Although we always hear of Warren Buffet, but he lose to Carl Icahn. He is an American business magnate, investor, activist shareholder, and philanthropist.From 1968 through 2011, Icahn grew his original $100,000 investment in his firm at a 31% annual rate, while Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway had "only" a 20% annual growth rate.

Number 5.
But both of them still lose to George Soros in ONE SINGLE DAY CATEGORY. His September 16, 1992 transaction, when he made a single-day gain of $1 billion dollars.

Number 4
But Soros loses to a Malaysian guy by the name of Mr Dummy who made 107%profit in 2015. Soros only increased from USD23 billion to USD24.9 billion, a mere8%.

Number 3
But Mr Dummy loses to moneySifu who made more than 20% in 2016, while Mr Dummy is making 8.5% lose in 2016.MoneySifu is a Malaysian.

Number 2
But moneySifu loses to a pretty lady called Michelle (not her actual name), a branch manager who I met in an optical shop last weekend. She is a Malaysian too. She made 87% within two months from 1000 units of JHM stock worth RM720 and sold RM1350. Her brother in law suggested her to buy JHM. 

Number 1.
Who is the best? Michelle's brother in law? Her brother in law is only driving an old local car. He is a Malaysian.

 
The list can go on and on. Therefore:

A)Don't compare and be sad/envy. Compare and see how we can be improved, should be happy. Learn from them.

B)Don’t WORSHIP great investors.

1) Those who made high percentage, maybe invested smaller amount than you, just like Michelle.

 
2)High percentage may be just selected years. Look at Mr Dummy 107% gain in 2015, negative 8% this year while many are making good profit in 2016. Great investor, but maybe he has no time to look for new stocks or review his stocks and hold on too tight. Have learned a lot from him.

3)For those who made high percentage % and invested a lot, they still lose to Warren Buffett, because Buffett made more money than anyone. But Warren Buffet lose to Carl Icahn. And the winner is Michelle’s brother in law who is driving an old local car. The circle keeps continue until no end.

 

4)Some make 60% from their spare cash, but you make 17% from your total portfolio. You are better.

5)Some invested almost all their net-worth and made 16%, whereas yours only part of your net-worth and made 17%.

 

6)Some are from rich family, the first trade is already RM20,000. Whereas some started with RM800.

Great investors have their own weaknesses. Learn from them, but don’t worship them.

When am I rank? The world has 7.4 billion people now, and I’m rank 3,700,000,001. Slightly above average.

Stock Market is a good place to make money. Happy Investing.

Durex Special Condom for Pre Mature Ejaculation

Every time we meet with this remisier friend, he always talks about three things: i)asking us to buy very big TV, ii)Viagra; and iii)said those with pre mature ejaculation can try using Durex special condom.

I’ll explain to you what he said and then I will relate it to stock market.

i)Buy very Big TV

He suggested us to buy very big TV, because most of our entertainment at home is on TV. Every day we watch Astro, news, DVD, all on TV. Besides sleeping, the whole family spend a lot of time on TV, regardless of age, small kid watch cartoon, grandparents also watch TV, men normally like watching sports, etc. Due to the above reasons, he said TV is a very good investment, use it every day and can last for few years.

ii)Viagra

He told us Viagra good. Not just good for those with erection problem, but also for those who cannot sustain erection during love making. Actually Viagra is a popular brand and most people know about it.

iii)Durex special condom for pre mature ejaculation
He told us for those with pre mature ejaculation, can try Durex special condom, called Performax, Performa, Pleasure Max, Performax Intense. Don’t know why he said got different name. Inside the condom there is something to numb the penis head and delay ejaculation. He said very effective, delay ejaculation without feeling the numb and without losing the sensation feel. What is inside the condom is similar to what the dental use inside the mouth to numb our gum during dental treatment. So if it is safe inside our month, then is safe on men’s penis. He said it is not available in Malaysia, but can be bought in Singapore or can buy via online.
 

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I relate what he said to stock market.

 

i)Buy Big TV

This is similar to invest big in stock market, because just like the TV, it is a good investment and we should look at long term, buy and invest big and keep for few years.

ii)Viagra

When we buy stock, many times the stock does not move up, this is because the stock lack of Viagra, or in stock market we called it catalyst. Catalyst is something (can be news, buying interest, project, speculation, rumour, etc) that push up the stock price. I wanted to write a topic on catalyst, but I myself still have not really been able to identify stock with catalyst or Viagra.

iii) Durex special condom Performax

After making 10% or 20% gain from a stock, many people will sell it. Normally sell it too early, so we called it pre mature ejaculation. Now no, hope people will keep and make 100% or 200% or more. When we invest in stock market, we need to wear Durex Performax, and not to sell too early. Continue and enjoy the price increase and dividend. Note: A reader told me in Malaysia there is a pill called Priligy, may help. No details on that.

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In my blog, I always relate our daily lives with stock market, eg Kung Fu vs Stock Market, 4D vs Stock Market, apply BCG Growth Matrix in stock market, apply 6 thinking hats in stock market etc.

Hope you enjoy reading and benefit too.

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Do YOU agree with ME?

Look at the following and see whether you agree with me.

I always hear people say don't convert the currency. For example, they say in Singapore the cost of living is very cheap, eg food, chicken rice only S$3.00, but in Malaysia is RM5.00. 5 is more than 3, so they say Malaysia is more expensive than Singapore. But I say if I convert S$3.00 X 2.5 will be RM7.50, more expensive than RM5. However, they always disagree with me, asking me not to convert. Keep saying $3 is cheaper $5 and they like to make the statement "you work there you spend there".

I can't accept this. I told them if UK selling at £2 (RM10), and Indonesia selling at 7000 Rupiah (RM2.24), meaning UK cost of living is lowest and Indonesia cost of living the highest? Cannot be right? But they still refuse to listen, keep saying you work there you spend there. Actually more 20 friends, relatives or family member always saying that. No one is on my side.

For me, we need to convert, but also need to compare with income. For example 12 years ago my friend with a degree started working,  got offer from Singapore with S$1,500 pay and his Malaysia job offer him with RM2000, doing similar job. Assuming now starting pay S$2000 , and Malaysia is RM2700, I don't know the figure, just assuming. Chicken rice S$3.00 is 0.15% of S$2000. In Malaysia RM5.00 is 0.185% of RM2700. A better way is to use Per Capital Income.

Then if you tell me Singapore cost of living is lower because chicken rice only cost 0.15% of salary but cost 0.185% in Malaysia, I will accept.

Stop telling me "DON'T CONVERT, YOU WORK THERE YOU SPEND THERE".

Thanks.

How to measure success in stock market?

How to measure success in stock market?
There are many ways to measure success in stock market. Success here means gain from trading in stock market or gain from shares or share price movement. Someone made $2 million, may not be more successful than someone who made $1.5 million. Refer to the list below and you will have more understanding.

In measuring success in stock making, it can be measured based on the following:

Total money made
Someone who made $2 million is more successful than someone who made $1.5mil.

Percentage return

The higher the percentage gain, the more successful. Example if Mr A invested $10 million and made $2 million (20%), compare with Mr B invested $0.5 million and made $ 1.5 million (300%), Mr B is more successful.

Consistency

Mr C made 30% per year for two years and then never touches stock market anymore. Mr D makes average 25% every year for the past 15 years, then Mr D is more successful where Mr C’s track record is not proven yet.

Portfolio Performance (stock and cash) rather than just Stock Performance.

Mr E’s stocks value increased from $50,000 to $80,000. Cash $5 million.
Mr F’s stocks value increased from $50,000 to $70,000. Cash $10,000 only.
Mr F is more successful because with total portfolio of $60,000 ($50,000 stocks and $10,000 cash) he managed to increase $20,000 or 33%.
Mr E with portfolio of $5.05 million, only managed to increase $30,000 or 0.59% only.
 

Total Profit in comparison to Personal Total Net Worth

Mr G is a rich man with $100 million net worth, he made only $100,000 from stock market.
Mr H is an average working class worker with $200,000 net worth, he managed to make $80,000.
Mr H is more successful in stock market.

Time needed.

Mr I made $100,000 within 10 years. Mr J made $100,000 within 5 years only.
Mr J is more successful.

Effort Needed

Mr S just look at some simple research figures and made $50,000 within 5 years.
Mr T made deatailed study, attended seminar, do detailed analysis, buy and sell many times, and made the same $50,000 within 5 years.
Mr S is more successful.
 

Age

Mr K made $100,000 within 10 years, Mr K now is 35 year-old.
Mr L made $100,000 within 10 years, Mr L now is 34 year-old.
Mr L is more successful.

Tips

Mr M’s tips are more accurate than Mr N.
Mr M is more successful.

Actions and Result

Mr O’s tips are more accurate than Mr P, but Mr P made more money than Mr O because Mr O talk only, no action, he himself seldom buy. Mr P is more successful.

Economy and Stock Market Index

Mr Q made 200% from year 1992 to 1996.
Mr R made 200% from 2007 to 2011.
Mr R is more successful because from 1992 to 1996 the economy and stock market index perform better than from 2007 to 2011. More easy to make money from 1992 to 1996 than from 2007 to 2011.

CONCLUSION

The list can actually goes on and on.

You can see that it is very difficult to measure who is more successful.

If I tell you now that I have made $5,000, it does not mean that I am less successful than someone who made $6,000. It does not mean that I am more successful than someone who made only $4,000. Many factors need to be considered.

Some people may make less from stock market because they use their money to invest in other investments which make more money than stock market, example in their own business, property, or gold, and some may want to invest more in their children by giving them better education, food, care, etc.

I’m not saying that we cannot compare. If we want to compare, please bear in mind that there are many factors involved, and direct comparison is almost impossible.

  

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6 Thinking Hats to Improve on Stock Market Performance

http://politemarket.blogspot.com/2012/02/6-thinking-hats-to-improve-on-stock.html

How To Use BCG Growth-Share Matrix to Invest in Stock Market

http://politemarket.blogspot.com/2012/08/how-to-use-growth-share-matrix-to.html

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How to use Growth-share matrix to invest in Stock Market

How to know what stocks to buy. Boston Consulting Group (BCG) Growth-share matrix may help. Let me explain.

I learned this BCG Growth-share matrix during my college days. It is to be applied in Business but I came out with an idea and started to use it in stock market since early 2010. I think it may be helpful to some people in stock market.

Basically the Growth-share matrix is a chart divided into four sections:
1)Stars
2)Cash Cow
3)Dogs (Pet)
4)Questions marks




STARS
This is where the stock that we bought is performing or has very great potential and recommended by many analysts. The company is announcing growth in profit. The share price is increasing. We all are very happy. Although sometimes due to poor market sentiment, the share price may drop, but because the company is achieving growth in profit, we know sooner or later, the share price will increase.


CASH COW
This is where the stock that we bought is paying very high dividend. Many prefer to buy Stars stock, but Cash Cow has its own advantage.
Stars stock price increase may take time, but as for Cash Cow stock, we receive good dividend very fast.
Some people may use Share Margin Financing to buy shares. Therefore, we need some cash to service the interest. If we buy all Stars stocks, if the price drop temporary due to poor market sentiment, we may be subject to margin call or foreselling.

Cash Cow also provides us with the cash flow to buy stocks that we have newly identified. If we had bought all Stars, we may not have the necessary cash flow when opportunity arises.

Sometimes, during poor economy the Stars may be hit and may suddenly make much lower profit or even loss. Cash Cow stocks are in business that are quite stable. Also, the Cash Cow stocks generally the prices are quite stable, even during poor market sentiment.

Therefore, we buy many Stars stocks and buy some Cash Cow stocks as a defensive strategy, and reinvest the dividend we receive.


QUESTION MARKS
This is the kind of stocks that is very risky, but if successful the reward can be extremely good.
You just don't know whether to buy or not. Example many trouble penny stocks if successfully turnaround, the stock price will shot up sharply. But if not, then it may be delisted.

Another example is where the Company may be having some risky project and if successful, the profit can be very great.

Many may want to buy some of these stocks due to the potential great profit. But due to the high risk involved, you may just buy smaller amount because you cannot risk losing most of your money.

Other examples are takeover, pending restructuring, new company, small company, new projects or venture, penny stocks, call warrant, etc.



DOGS (PETS)
Dogs are the stock that you know probably you will lose money if you buy it, but you still want to buy. Based on past experience, you know that if you trade speculative stocks, chances of making money is lower than making losses.

But due to emotion, you have no choice and you still buy. You saw other friends are buying and you want to follow. You heard tips and rumours.

Many people will tell you don't buy and just focus on fundamental stocks. Do you think is easy to control our emotions? That is why so many people make losses in the stock marker. Especially remisiers and dealers who sit in front of the stock prices screen very day, it is not easy to control their emotion.

Can buy, but use very small amount to trade.

In business, Dogs are for examples, doing charity, continue loss making business for the overall Company Group image, etc.

If you lose money in stock market by buying Dogs shares, consider it as learning, charity, and playing games. By the way, not all the times you lose. Sometimes dogs share price can increase sharply and you can make very good profit.


CONCLUSION
If we buy all Stars, sometimes we may have some problem.
If we buy all Cash Cows, profits are not so great.
If we buy all Question Marks, and if not successful we will lose a lot of money.
If we buy all Dogs, chances of making losses are high.

In my view, I think for non-expert investors, we can allocate our portfolio into the four BCG Growth-share matrix . Buy many Stars, then some Cash Cows and Question Marks. And finally, use very small amount of money to buy/trade or speculate dogs. If you can control your emotion, then no need to buy Dogs.

Sometimes it is very hard to differentiate between Stars and Question Marks. Dogs and Questions Marks. If in doubt, put them in Question Marks because you are having a question on where to put and the name is already being called "question marks".



BCG Growth-share matrix in stock market is something that I came out with and I have been applying it for few years and has been successful so far. Hope it can help non-professional or non-expert investors in stock market.


Please note that the above is just my opinion and a case study for myself and is not an advice. Please read the disclaimer clause in my blog. Please consult your investment financial adviser.

Two years ago I already have plan to write this article. The reason of waited for two years is because I normally post short article and I considrer this is long. I was quite lazy to start writing. I really hope there is at least one person who like this article.




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Worth to invest in 4D? Or stock market is better?

For those who are not familiar with 4D, let me explain.

4D is gaming or betting.

Customer will pick a Four digit numbers from 0000 to 9999.

For every $1 bet, Prizes are:

First price $2,500 X 1.

Second price $1,000 X 1.

Third price $500 X 1
Special Prize $200 ( 10 numbers will get $200 each).

Consolation prize $60 (10 numbers will get $60 each).

What are your chances?

Base on what we have learned from school, if you buy $1 for all the numbers from 0000 to 9999, you need to pay $10,000.

Your total winnings will be just $6,600. Yes, ONLY $6,600.

What if you just buy $10 on one number?

On an average or base on probability, your $10 will become $6.6.

One week got three draws. Assuming you buy $10 on every draw for one year (52 weeks).

You would have invested $1,560 and you will end up with just $1,029.60. You lose $530.40, or 34%.

If you buy from two gaming companies, your losses will be double. Three gaming companies, then X3.

I heard now the special price is just RM180 and not RM200. That means you are getting worse.

In stock market, if the company is growing at an average 10% per year and dividend yield is 5%, on an average you probably will be making about 15% per year. The more you invest, you more you make.

Minimum to buy 4D is $1.00.

If I am an analyst, I would rate 4D a STRONG SELL.

Current 4D share price is $1.00, and my target price fair value for 4D is $0.66 (STRONG SELL).

Many will argue that it is based on luck. Some strike few hundred thousands.

Yes, congratulations.

But for those 99.77% of majority who are not so lucky, the more you invest, the more you lose. The longer you invest, the more you lose. The more operator companies you buy from, the more you lose. You want to invest in 4D?

The above is based on what have been learned in school on chances. Off course, some can buy one number and strike.

Go to my blog for more.

http://politemarket.blogspot.com/

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